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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES The kickoff to next season is still a long way away, but there has been plenty of action over the past few weeks on next years markets. Port Adelaide remain premiership favourites at $3.75, but St Kilda are hot on their tails, now in to $4.25 after sustained backing. Brisbane have attracted a bet of $10,000 from a Victorian client at $6, but we consider them a big risk as they will be without Simon Black and Jonathon Brown for at least the first five games. Geelong are in to $9 having been backed to take out $50,000 at $10, while both Sydney ($17) and Collingwood ($19) have been backed to take out $40,000 in the past fortnight. Of the 'outsiders', the Kangaroo's have been the side to attract most business at $81, but their best days seem behind them. Final eight betting has seen a $5000 wager placed on Port at $1.10, and the same wager placed on Geelong at $1.33. Every year one of the 'name' sides misses the finals, with Collingwood and Hawthorn being the casualties in 2004, so it isn't really a great surprise that punters are treading warily taking the short odds some of the obvious picks. The wooden spoon is a bit of a betting race, with all bar Carlton ($11) and Fremantle having at least one bet placed on them. Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs share the honours of being favourites to run last at $4, with the Hawks backed to 'win' $8000. It is hard to believe that this time twelve months ago Hawthorn had been sensationally backed to win the 2004 premiership, and we all know what a disappointing year they had. Their list hasn't improved any, but will have Shane Crawford back, so perhaps they might be on the improve. Adelaide have been best backed to win the wooden spoon, now in to $17 after opening at $21, with the Kangaroo's also gathering support at $5.50. RUGBY LEAGUE There was an immediate reaction to the NRL final eight and wooden spoon markets as soon as they opened early this week. The Brisbane Bronco's drew a bet of $6000 to make the final eight at $1.50, and that was on the back of another bet of $1000 for them to win the title at $13. Newcastle were another side that a couple of punters think we over-priced as there was close to $5000 for the Knights to make the finals at $1.65, but of course that is clearly dependent on Andrew Johns completing the season. Parramatta ($1.80), Cronulla ($2) and the Wests Tigers ($2.75) have each had a handful of bets placed on them to make the finals, but as yet there hasn't been any significant bets. Part of our job has been to try and find improvers next year, and the obvious choice is New Zealand, quoted at $2 to make the eight. The Warriors have had a cleanout following a shocking 2004 season, and appear focused on getting the team back to where they were the previous two years. The fans dropped off them this year, and as yet we haven't seen any money for them to make the eight, but they are the team to watch. Poor old South Sydney have been given the dubious honour of being favourites to win the wooden spoon. The Rabbitohs had a poor year both on and off the field, and the first two wooden spoon bets taken, totalling $1500, were for South's woes to continue next season at $2.50. Manly are second picks at $4, and if the Sea Eagles can get some consistency in defense they should be able to steer clear of the dreaded wooden spoon. They showed enough this year to worry the better sides, but continuously broke down in defense. There is always some betting for sides who appear to have no hope of running last, and both Penrith ($34) and Brisbane ($51) have each been backed to win $15,000 in early action. GOLF Peter Lonard, after three weeks of sublime golf reminiscent of Vijay Singh's 2004 PGA season, is now poised to create history and become the first player to claim Australian golfs ‘Grand Slam’. A win for Lonard in this weeks Masters at Huntingdale will complete a fairytale finish to the 2004 season, one which has ended in disaster for Centrebet as punters again managed to find the winner of each of the three events we offered. Firstly, one local punter buttered up on Lonard's success at the Open the previous week with another $10,000 on him in the PGA, and he wasn't the only winning punter as the rank and file got behind arguably Australia's most consistent player. To top it off one of our regulars backed Retief Goosen to win over $150,000 at $4.25 in the Nedbank Challenge at Sun City, while also backing Miguel Angel Jimenez for a similar amount at $8 to claim the Hong Kong Open. What else could go wrong you may well ask? Well if Goosen wasn't a poor enough result prior to the commencement of the Nedbank then a further $20,000 at $3.25 by the same client at the halfway mark certainly put the seal on a week we would definitely care to forget. Back to Lonard. He has been installed as $7 favourite to complete the first Grand Slam in Australian golf history, and there are several punters who believe he has the game to do, carrying a couple of $1,000 wagers along with a host of bets from the local golfing punting public. It has been Stuart Appleby however who has attracted the most attention with one wager to win $150,000 at $7.50 causing the most concern. Last week we were all ‘pro’ Appleby at the Nedbank Challenge, however his final round capitulation will make a victory this week all the more difficult to swallow. Also well tried have been a couple of roughies in Peter O'Malley at $34 and Daniel Chopra at $41 while defending champion, Robert Allenby has his share of admirers at $10. Last week Adam Scott was the darling of the punting public as he was sent out favourite at $5.50, however a poor performance in failing to make the cut has seen his price drift this week to $8. This may represent good value as he has been beaten in two play-offs at Huntingdale in the last three years which is a fair indication he has a liking for the course. Back in the States we have a clash between the two colossus's of world golf as Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh go head to head at the Target World Challenge held at Sherwood Country Club. Woods has been installed favourite at $3.35 ahead of Singh at $3.75, however the big money has come for Padraig Harrington at $10 and Miguel Angel Jimenez at $13, both backed to win $100,000 by last weeks successful punter. Defending champion, Davis Love is next in the betting at $13, while consistent Americans, Stewart Cink and Chris DiMarco share the next line of betting at $17. At this stage let’s hope Vijay Singh can continue his successes of this year with another win here. On the European Tour we head to South Africa for a co-sanctioned event, the Dunhill Championship held at Leopard Creek County Club, Bloemfontein. World number three Ernie Els is perhaps the shortest priced opening favourite for a fully fledged event I can recall at $3.25 from fellow South African Tim Clark at $12 and defending champion Marcel Siem at $17. Punters have shied away from this event as Els has heaps of class on his fellow competitors and $2.50 appears a short quote but funnier things have happened in golf. I wish they would start happening again! ELECTIONS Nearly one year ago to the day, Mark Latham was elected leader of the Labor Party in Australia, and the controversial leader was going to head up a Labor revival at the Federal level. My, how things have changed in that time! After gaining massive support from the public early this year, which saw his price of winning the recent election tumble from $4 into $2 at one stage, things all went horribly wrong in the final two weeks of the pre-election campaign, and that saw Labor suffer a humiliating defeat. Since then, Labor have returned to their dark past, with a lot of internal fighting over whether or not Latham is a suitable leader. The answer to that may not be know for a while, but it hasn't stopped one punter who has chimed in this week with a bet of $1500 for the Coalition to win the next election at $1.33! He is going to have a lengthy wait before he can collect, and while the Labor Party have their concerns with leadership, there is no guarantee that John Howard will be at the helm of the Coalition in three years time either! There is also a market currently open on who will be 'Australian of the Year'. For obvious reasons, that will close at the end of this week, but the nominees, or one in particular, have created plenty of controversy. We all thought that Nicole Kidman was the 'darling' of the Australian public, but after she was awarded the New South Wales nomination for AOY, the media gave her a big pasting over her smoking habits, along with several mentions of how little time she spends in the country. Up until that time, Nicole had been the $2 favourite, and well backed, but following that spark of 'bad' publicity, along with burns specialist Fiona Wood being confirmed as the WA nominee, the market has changed dramatically. Fiona Wood, who invented 'plastic skin' and did so much for the Bali victims, received her second WA nomination, and following that she has taken over as favourite at $2.50, with Nicole Kidman out to $3. The other major player in this award appears to be Queenslander Bill Bristow, who has also been well backed at $4. Bristow is accredited with starting up the Angel Flight service, and has recruited close to 750 pilots nationally who fly for this service in outback Australia. ENTERTAINMENT Maria Julia Mantilla Garcia of Peru is the new Miss World following last Saturday's staging of the event in Sanya, China. Miss Peru was on the eighth line of betting at $23 when the market closed on Thursday, and while there were several bets recorded for her, the largest being €100 at $17. she was a very good result for us. It was the first time that the new format of 'viewer voting' had been used instead of a judging panel. and Miss Peru defeated the Dominican Republic and the USA for the coveted award. Miss USA was easily our worst result, and had been backed from an opening $15 into $9, then all the way down to $4.50 after winning the 'beach girl' part of the competition. The opening field of 112 was culled to 15 for the final, with Brisbane's Sarah Davis making the final field, but unable to follow in the footsteps of Jennifer Hawkins who won the Miss Universe title early in the year. CRICKET New Zealand have only lost two of their 25 one day matches this year, and although many of those games were against inferior opposition, none of those wins would have meant as much as last Sunday's against Australia. The Kiwi's had had a poor test series against the Aussies, and things looked liked getting worse when Adam Gilchrist was at his swashbuckling best in the opening innings of Sunday's match. Those who had taken the short odds would have been on excellent terms with themselves as Australia looked like they were on the way to posting a record score. Several big bets before the game started saw Australia go in as hot $1.30 chances, with the two largest bets being $18,000 at $1.35 and $16,000 at $1.30. The demise of Gilchrist saw an Australian collapse, and the odds did the same thing. While he had been batting, the odds for the fav's were hovering around the $1.15 mark, but with each Australian casualty, the betting moved closer together. There had been some money for the Kiwi's, but nothing like we expected. At half time, Australia were $1.55, with New Zealand at $2.40 in their quest to get 247 runs, not a big total, but big enough when you are up against the World Cup Champions. After losing a wicket without scoring, New Zealand steadied the ship and went on to record one of their best ever wins, with the pendulum turning in the third last over, which was bowled by Michael Kasprowitz. Prior to that over beginning, Australia were $1.12, and we did take a bet of $8000 at that quote. One over, and 22 runs later, New Zealand were $1.12, such was the turnaround! Today, Australia are again raging favourites to level the series. With rain predicted in Sydney, and rain also expected in Brisbane for the final match on Friday, all series betting has been suspended. The threat of rain though hasn't dampened the enthusiasm of punters as Australia have firmed from $1.35 into $1.30. Bets of $20,000 have been taken at $1.33 and $1.30, as well as numerous other bets around the $2000 mark at similar odds. New Zealand haven't been completely abandoned in this match, as we have taken three separate bets of $2000 at $3.50, and a heap of smaller bets from the 'Land of the Long White Cloud'. Betting will be provided throughout the game (provided there are no drama's with the weather), as will the 'next man out' and 'type of dismissal' markets. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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