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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
GOLF The season has come to a close for the calendar year with Kiyoshi Miyazato capturing his maiden Japanese tour victory in the Asia Japan Okinawa Open. It was Miyazato's first top ten finish in the last two years, so coming from eight shots behind third round leader Jeeve Mika Singh was a real surprise. Other surprises for the year included no major title for Tiger Woods for the second year in a row, and nine victories to laconic Fijian Vijay Singh, who in so doing so topped the $10 million mark for the first time in history. Those nine victories came at a cost to Centrebet as one Singh fan won over $1,000,000 on Singh alone for the calendar year. Throw in perennial favourites Ernie Els and Retief Goosen, along with England in the World Cup of Golf and you can see this punter had one hell of '04. The season kicks off in the first week of January with the Mercedes Championship, won last year by Australian Stuart Appleby, who somehow defeated Vijay Singh by a shot, indeed a rarity. Expect the Australians to do well here, having won three of the last twelve Mercedes Championships, and coming off a competitive Australian PGA tour. Over the holiday period Centrebet will be offering European Order of Merit winner and US PGA Money list winners for season 2005, however perhaps the golfing event of most interest is the 2005 US Masters, which we opened this week. The top of the betting has a familiar look about it with Tiger Woods favourite at $5.50 from Singh at $7.50, Ernie Els at $8.50 and last years winner, Phil Mickelson at $10. Early money is for Retief Goosen, well supported at $19, which may represent good value for the current U.S Open Champion and Tour Championship winner. BASKETBALL Round 12 in NBL saw a number of upsets and form reversals. Biggest upset was recorded by Townsville who inflicted Adelaide's first loss at home, after earlier in the round losing at home themselves to Wollongong. Wollongong continued their trend of failing to win their second game of the round when they fell to Cairns. They are now 0-5 in that situation. West Sydney and Perth met twice in the round with the home team being successful on each occasion. It took a 24 point turnaround for that to happen but as has been noted before this season that type of turnaround is the norm. Sydney Kings scored two come from behind wins gaining victory in both their games by the narrowest possible margin. They are starting to look very good and with CJ Bruton due to return soon they can only get better. At the other end of the scale the Hunter Pirates blew decisive second half leads to record two losses and send them tumbling out of the top 8. Also significant last week was that three crucial last minute withdrawals cost their clubs dearly. With Mee (Wollongong), Dwight (West Sydney) and Maher (Adelaide) all failing to suit up for second games their teams could not secure victories without them. Brisbane's replacement for Kevin Freeman, Bryant Matthews, gave every indication in his debut that he will ensure the Bullets are around at the business end of the season. Finally, Melbourne Tigers now also look a threat with the addition of Rashad Tucker. As noted earlier in the year, there has never been greater parity in the NBL and the Championship race is wide open. Not so wide open is the WNBL but there are three definite chances that are hard to split on form. Sydney, Dandenong and Bulleen have set the pace all season and home court advantage will prove decisive in the finals which makes this week's clash between Dandenong and Bulleen critical. TENNIS The tennis action moves to this side of the world from next week onwards, and we have already seen plenty of interest in the upcoming Australian Open markets. It is no surprise to see Roger Federer dominating the men’s market, currently quoted at $2 after opening at $2.10. Already close to $30,000 has been placed on Federer, who will go in as one of the shortest priced favourites ever. Andy Roddick is second pink, but unwanted, at $5, and then it is out to Lleyton Hewitt at $7.50. Lleyton found a bit of form at the end of the year, and he has had backing, along with the enigmatic Marat Safin, who has been backed to win $40,000 at $8. After Andre Agassi ($13) the market falls away very quickly, and the only players we have seen any decent amounts for have been Carlos Moya ($34), Mario Ancic ($126) and Mark Phillippoussis at the same quote. The women’s markets normally aren't available anywhere until after the draw has been done, but this year we thought we would try something different and open them early. Most of the players in the top end of the market have struggled with injury in 2004, and of course we have also had the 'Russian Invasion', so that should make for an interesting Australian Open, particularly if the weather is hot. Justine Henin-Hardenne and Serena Williams are the opening favourites at $4.50, and each has had a handful of small bets placed on them, but nothing big. Veteran Lindsay Davenport is next in line ($5) at what will probably be her last Aus Open. Next we have Amelie Mauresmo ($5.50), and the Frenchwoman is our tip in this event. Twelve months ago it would be a miracle if anybody was to back one of the Russian girls to win any of the majors, but times have changed. Maria Sharapova ($7) and Anastasia Myskina ($8) have had the bulk of the bets placed on them already, and the trend looks certain to continue. The only other player whom we have seen some serious early money for has been Alicia Molik, who has been backed to win nearly $40,000 at $26. Alicia had a terrific latter part of the season, but has never really matched it with the best in the Grand Slams. RUGBY UNION The curtain closes on what has been an interesting year on the International and local Rugby stages, however it will not be for long as the much anticipated Six Nation and Super 12 competitions kick off in February. Last year France was a somewhat surprise winner of the Grand Slam given that England were World Cup title holders and Ireland had shown their competitiveness on the International scene. South Africa were also surprise winners of the Tri Nations, entering the betting as $7 outsiders but clinching the title with a 23-19 win over the Wallabies in the final game. And given some recent International results with Ireland defeating the Springboks and the Wallabies defeating England at Twickenham, then we look set for a fairly even year on the Test front. But what about the Six Nations and Super 12 competitions? England has been installed deserved favourites at $2.30 over France at $2.60 and Ireland at $5 in the Six Nations, mainly on the strength of the return of Jonny Wilkinson, and three home games including one against France. Their ‘away’ games won’t be easy however, with Wales and Ireland both on the road, and any drop in intensity could prove fatal. France start off with an easy ‘home’ game against Scotland, however must travel to Twickenham in round two for the game which could decide the winner. And Ireland deserve consideration after a courageous win over the Springboks, and with both England and France at home they cannot be dismissed. Wales are best of the others at $12 with Scotland, $151, and Italy, $1001, not expected to have a say. If the early money for England is any indication then the $2.30 may not be around for long. We opened our Super 12 market this week, the first in the world, with the Brumbies favourites at $3.25 ahead of the Crusaders at $4.25 and the Blues at $4.50. Early comment is that the Crusaders look good value after an impressive NPC campaign where they walloped the Hurricanes in the final, however a tough early draw starting with the Brumbies on the road may determine their fate. The Brumbies deserve to be installed as favourites given their impressive form last year and with only Joe Roff missing from their line up, and with plenty of International experience, they should prove tough to beat. The Blues may be the sleepers this year having lost no-one of note from their squad and with a good draw where they play the Crusaders and Brumbies at home, they should prove tough to beat. Next in the betting come perennial disappointments the Waratahs at $6.50. On paper this may appear a good price, particularly if Matt Rogers holds up and there is no in-fighting between management and players. Two big ifs. Of the others rated a hope, we see NPC's big improvers the Hurricanes at $11 from last years surprise packets, the Chiefs at $17 and the first South African team, the Stormers at $21. Hard to rate exactly what these teams will achieve, the Hurricanes with a nice even draw given their talented backs are expected to win enough home games to squeeze into the finals while both the Chiefs and Stormers may struggle early with tough draws. Any unexpected victories early in the season from either of these two improving clubs will see them in the finals action. Of the others, the Sharks $26, the Bulls and Reds both $34, the Highlanders $41 and Cats, $151, I expect the Sharks to be the only side capable of sneaking into the semis. Not surprisingly betting has started off a little slow as punters have nothing to compare their thoughts to, but you can be assured it will flow once a team appears over the odds. CRICKET If you like cricket then Boxing Day is for you. Eight of the nine test playing nations will be in action with two ODI's and two Test matches due to be played. It starts with New Zealand and Sri Lanka playing the first of five one day matches. This is one of the most anticipated series of the season with both sides attempting to be recognised as the challenger to the Australians. The Kiwi's will be buoyed by tying their recent series against Australia, but the Sri Lankans will know that they have won six of the last eight against New Zealand, and also won the series last time they were in the land of the 'long white cloud'. The Kiwi's have been installed slight favourites at $1.70. All the usual exotics are up and running, and betting will re-open at half time. The turf may be newly laid but it is still 'hallowed' at the MCG, and there is no bigger event on the Australian cricketing calendar than the first day of the Melbourne Test Match. Pakistan must still be in shock from having Australia 5-78 in the 1st innings then losing the match by a record 491 runs in the first test in Perth. The MCG pitch should be of more liking to the Pakistani batsman and their bowling attack has already shown it can be lethal at times. Pakistan haven't played at "The G" since the days when Imran Khan was captain. Inzamam will be hoping that he and his team can show some of Imran's renowned fighting spirit - they'll need it! The Aussies are hot fav's at $1.33, and already there has been close to $100,000 placed on them. There has been a sprinkling of money for a Pakastani upset at $14, and we are keeping on the safe side of the draw at $3.75. We all know how ugly Melbourne's weather can turn this time of year! Bangladesh and India wrap up their three game One Day Series with a Day night/ game in Dhaka, while South Africa and England start the second Test. South Africa showed in the first Test that the Poms won't have everything their own way. It was an intriguing match which went the way of the travelling side, who did land a winning bet of $30,000 at $2.80 to a Sydney punter. With the batting talent of the likes of Vaughan, Trescothick, Strauss and Flintoff plus their ever improving bowling stocks, England will be looking to inflict South Africa's first defeat at Kingsmead since 1998. The last meeting at Kingsmead between these two saw England enforce the follow on, but not go onto win the match. The same punter has stuck with England again, plonking $40,000 this time at $2.50, and with the game televised into Australia, betting will be updated at the end of each days play. YACHTING It would appear as though all the media coverage that the Sydney to Hobart has been getting has had a positive outcome on the betting as this year’s event is shaping as the biggest ever. Kiwi yacht Konica Minolta has been really impressive in the lead ups, and is now clear favourite at $2.20. At that quote we have taken bets of $3000 and $2600, and we have also taken a lot of small bets from across the Tasman. Scandia has drifted out to $2.50 following the weekends racing, but prior to that we had taken bets of $4000 at $2.40 and $2000 at $2.30, however the bigger money has temporarily dried up for the big Victorian yacht. Next in line is the newly built Nicorette, who has been backed to win close to $20,000 at $4.75 and $4.50. That's not the end of it however as the controversial AAPT ($21) and Andrew Short Marine ($26) have each been backed to take out in excess of $30,000, and veteran Brindabella has been backed to win a similar amount at $41. As far as head to head betting goes, we have taken a bet of $3000 for Konica Minolta to beat home Skandia at $1.65, and two bets of $2000 for Andrew Short Marine to defeat Brindabella at $1.70. Finally, I would like to take this opportunity to wish all a very Merry Xmas and Happy New Year from all at Centrebet. Next week we will be awarding our annual awards, as well as looking back over the betting year. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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