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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
CRICKET Rain might well be the saviour of South Africa as the host nation have burst back into calculations to win the World Cup following rain in the West Indies match last Monday. Instead of getting 4 points, the Windies had to share the points with Bangladesh when the match couldn't be completed due to the bad weather. The West Indies had racked up a fair score of 244 runs, and while they probably would have won the match anyway, it was hardly an 'uncatchable' total. We posted the Windies at $1.01, and as we said at the start of the tournament, anyone was welcome to take those sort of odds for whatever they want, and in this match we took over $100,000, including bets of $26,000 and $20,000 from two Sydney punters. Most of this week’s matches have been dominated by short priced fav's, and we have taken similar bets on all to win. Last night (Wed), we had a decent betting contest when Zimbabwe hosted India. Two of our Indian punters placed a total of $USD 30,000 on India at $1.40 before the match started, but practically all of our small bets, mostly from Australia, were for Zimbabwe at $3. Half time betting saw some interest in India at $1.48, but that was overshadowed by $8000 worth of bets for Zimbabwe at $2.70 but the home side fell 60 runs short. As far as our 'futures' betting goes on the World Cup, things are looking decidedly ugly in the batting and bowling titles. Hershelle Gibbs is our worst result to make the most runs, and we were breathing a sigh of relief when it looked likely that South Africa could miss the Super Six stage, but of course things have changed. The next five batsmen in the betting are all losers as well, so we are looking to someone like Stephen Fleming to go on and make a few more big innings. We have a few more chances running for us in the bowling, but current favourite, Muttiah Mualitharan isn't one of those. An English client has placed $4000 on Muralitharan at $10, and also had $5000 each way Makhaya Ntini at $13. Ntini has only snared three wickets so far, but like Hershelle Gibbs, may now get a few extra chances. This week we took a $2000 bet for Brett Lee at $7, but then it was announced that the speedster was likely to be 'rested' against Holland, a game where he probably would have been a strong chance to get four or five wickets. Betting turnover is down on this World Cup due to two main factors. The first reason is that we really haven't had too many games that were competitive enough for 'live' betting to take off. Most games have been predictable early on, and there have only been a couple where favourtism has changed. This will change when we get to the finals, but there has to be some doubt of the merits of having 'part time' cricketing nations taking place in this type of event. The other reason is the continued popularity of betting exchanges, and it makes sense that high profile matches like World Cup cricket games will be fairly well catered for by matched bets from big punters. One thing we have noticed is that getting close to start time in matches, several of our bigger punters who have been unsuccessful in getting their whole wager 'matched' have been placing bets in the fear that they might miss out altogether. Plenty of bookmakers have been complaining about betting exchanges, but they are now a 'fact of life', so it's up to the bookies to get competitive. Locally, New South Wales journey across the Nullarbor to take on Western Australia in the ING One Day Cup final on Sunday. NSW are $2.10 in our market, but that is only because they are big winners in our book. There is some chance they will be without Steve Waugh, but knowing what the ex-Aussie Captain is like, he will be pulling out all stops to ensure he takes the field. NSW won last years final in Brisbane, and did beat WA by 6 wickets in Perth two weeks ago, so they are probably pretty good odds. AUSTRALIAN RULES The 'bane' of all Aussie Rules bookies, the Wizard Cup, gets under way on Friday night with Richmond playing Melbourne at the Telstra Dome. Every year, the bookies get cleaned up on these matches as some clubs are more focused on winning pre-season matches than others, and what we find is that as soon as there is a market move for either side, punters 'climb on', forcing that price even shorter. The fluctuations are as wild as the North wind, and from a bookmaking perspective, it's difficult to know when the money trail will end. That aside, the 'knockout' format back in place this year makes the task a little easier rather than a 'round robin' format, and even looking at the first round, initial thoughts are that most look pretty even. Richmond, who have been backed to win the Day Premiership at $26, go into Friday's game at $1.70.We are treading very cautiously here, which is why it only took two early bets of $2500 and $1200 to see a price change form $1.75 into $1.70. Later the same night, we look to have a good betting duel on our hands over in the West. The Eagles have been easy to 'lay' at $1.70 against Fremantle, but there has been money for the Dockers at $2.05 including a $3000 bet from Perth. Saturday’s four games will be available on Friday when we have some solid info on probable line-ups, with the highlight of the day being the clash between Adelaide and Port. We think that this also will be a good betting game even though the Crows will be without new recruit Wayne Carey. St Kilda have been backed in the past week to make this years final eight. A Victorian punter placed $6000 on the Saints at $3, and that was followed by another $4000 at $2.75, and $3500 worth of bets have been placed on Fremantle at $2.50. We continue to see bets come in for the Brownlow, and it is being spread around several players. New Freo recruit Des Headland has been backed on three occasions to win $10,000 at $26, Matthew Pavlich, also from Fremantle, has been backed to take out $50,000 at $101, and ex-Adelaide now Richmond mid-fielder Kane Johnson has been backed to win a similar amount, also at $101. GOLF Last week saw the return of the “Tiger” to the PGA Tour and as suggested the $3.25 on offer should have been taken by punters looking for value. However after good support for Mickelson, Singh and Howell we were forced to offer $3.50 about the “Tiger”, and still there were only a few takers. It’s not that often we are that prophetic in a golf tournament but it proved to be the case this time. It was not until the end of the third round that punters realized the ‘Tiger’ was back with his usual bite, and the $1.50 we offered was quickly taken. Phil Mickelson held on for a tie for fourth behind Pettersson and Faxon, but it was a result Centrebet gratefully accepted. This week we head to Riviera CC for the Nissan Open, an event ‘Tiger’ has never won. His best finish was second in ’98 and ’99 however on the strength of his first up showing last week, punters have been keen to take the $2.75, with two bets of $2000 and a further wager of 8000 NOK. This field may lack depth with the withdrawal of Vijay Singh so next in the betting is Davis Love at $17 from DiMarco and Toms at $21. Best backed to beat ‘Tiger’ has been Rocco Mediate, $500 each way at $51 and Bob Estes, $300 each way at $67, but neither have any form on the course. The European Tour heads to Malaysia, for the Carlsberg Malaysian Open. No Ernie Els this week much to the joy of Centrebet. Last week he was installed $4 favourite for the Johnnie Walker Classic, a price punters weren’t too keen to take but after an opening round 64, our price of $2.25 was snaffled up by punters in no uncertain terms, with one bet of $8000 and another 10,000 DKK. After a second round 65 and third round 64 he was an unbackable quote and finished 29 under par after a disappointing closing round of 66. In his current form there is nothing he can’t do on a golf course. Back to reality and Alastair Forsyth is defending champion at $51, with money, $250 each way, to suggest he can repeat the dose. Retief Goosen has been installed favourite at $4.25 from Padraig Harrington at $5, but punters have been keen to bet around them with good support for Wook-Soon Kang, ($200 each way at $101), Per Nyman ($200 each way at $101) and Rick Gibson ($250 each way at $81) to suggest there will be a boilover. However the favoured two are class players, so expect to see them fight it out from the much improved Bradley Dredge. The Ladies European Tour commences this week with the ANZ Ladies Masters on the Gold Coast in Australia. Defending champion, Karrie Webb is $2.75 favourite and in good form after collecting all monies in a recent Skins event against Sorenstam, Davies and Diaz, her record here is quite imposing with victories in five of the last six times she has completed. Laura Diaz is second pick at $12 from Teske $17 and Davis $21. However expect to see Webb saluting with stiffest opposition coming from Natalie Gulbis $26 and Loren Ochoa $34, both bright stars on the horizon. RUGBY LEAGUE Anybody who had doubts about whether the Sydney Roosters can win back to back premierships should grab a look at the World Club Challenge against St Helens. We took a big 'stand' against the Roosters, and paid the penalty when they kept St Helens scoreless, winning 38-0. Australian sides have always struggled in these matches, so it looks like the Roosters are 'up' early in the year, and will be terribly hard to beat early in the season. While that was an impressive victory, the win hasn't seen a flood of money come in for the Roosters to win this years title. They remain at $5, but we have taken a bet of $3000 for the Bulldogs at $4, and also $1600 for Brisbane at $6. The Bronco's have also had two $5000 bets placed on them making the final eight at $1.25, with a $7000 bet going on Newcastle at $1.40. The Charity Shield saw St George Illawarra outclass Souths to win comfortably, 28-10. It wasn't the best betting game of Charity Shield we have had, due to the cricket World Cup, but it was still pretty good given it is a trial match. There were a few big winners, with one Sydney punter winning just over $11,000 after placing $10,000 on the Dragons at $2.10. BASKETBALL For the third consecutive season we see Canberra hosting Sydney in the WNBL Grand Final. The last two Championships have been decided in tightly contested games with Sydney winning 69-65 in 2001 and Canberra emerging victorious 75-69 last season. Both teams have earned their Grand Final berth with a victory over the Townsville Fire after finding themselves looking at 9 and 10 point deficits in the final quarter against the Fire. Arguably, Sydney's was the better performance as they were able to give Townsville's their only defeat of the season on their home court. Canberra cannot afford to leave it all up to Lauren Jackson again this week. With 38 points and 21 rebounds in the semi-final she produced one of the most dominant performances ever seen in the WNBL but others, particularly Sharp, Veal and Hamilton will need to contribute more this week if the Capitals are to retain their title. Jackson has played hurt all season and you wonder if she has one more outstanding game left. Sydney's task, apart from the obvious of keeping Jackson to reasonable numbers, is to get more scoring support for Hammonds and Snell. One of the guards will need to step up and take advantage of Veal's sometimes suspect defensive skills. We may get another outstanding game from Jackson or a superb contest. Either way it will be well worth tuning into ABC television for this match. As for the NBL, there has been basketball on each night this week from Tuesday onwards. This has caught some punters unaware, but last night's (Wed) clash between Canberra and Cairns was quite good considering where they both are on the ladder. The betting opened with each side quoted at $1.90, and that is where they stayed. Both sides attracted similar amounts of money, with the largest bet being on Canberra, which was $3300. A depleted Cannons side were once again embarrassed going down to Cairns by 14 points. Tonight, the rampant Townsville Crocs are at home to Brisbane, and a win looks a mere formality. Townsville are $1.06 to win, and while we haven't had any takers there, we have seen two bets totaling just under $7000 for Townsville to beat a 15 point handicap. The most important game of the weekend will be Sundays Fox Sports televised match between West Sydney and Melbourne. Despite West Sydney’s three match losing streak, the door to a finals berth remains slightly ajar. If West Sydney beat Melbourne, it will take them to 12 wins and the all important series win over the Tigers. They are on the road in the final week, but road trips don't come any easier than Brisbane and Canberra, both of those teams playing out the season without imports. Three wins would take them to 15-15 for the season. Melbourne are currently on 13 wins, but have Wollongong on Friday night, followed by West Sydney, Cairns next week, and then have to travel to Cairns. It's possible there maybe only one win left for the Tigers, so as you can see, it's a big game on Sunday. There is a possibility that Simon Dwight will return for West Sydney in this game, and while it would be too much to expect that he would have a big bearing on the game itself, no doubt it would give the Razorbacks a big emotional lift. We think that the Razorbacks are 'good things' to roll Melbourne, and have priced them accordingly at $1.60. BOXING Stan 'The Man' Longinidis failed to live up to the expectations of punters when he came out of retirement to fight Gurkan Ozkan in a kick boxing bout in Melbourne last weekend. Longinidis opened favourite at $1.75, which attracted a $6000 bet, and he was backed all the way down to $1.50, with a Melbourne punter placing $6600 at $1.55. A few punters thought that Longinidis’ battle weary body wouldn't last the distance, and they proved to be spot on when in the ninth round Ozkan dropped him with a powerful kick to the knee, a blow that finished the fight for Longinidis. Ozkan will soon go to Japan to compete in the 'KI’ Championship, and we quite possibly might cover this tournament as there was plenty of interest in last weeks bout, our first ever kick boxing event. Just when we thought we might be seeing the last of Mike Tyson and his bizarre antics, Tyson and his promoters have provided us with another 'circus' of events this week. His 'on again', 'off again' fight against Clifford Etienne is 'on again' for the moment, and with a few million bucks on offer just to turn up. If either wants to pull out, I'm available! With Tyson apparently too sick to train, he has been a noted 'drifter' in the betting, now available at $1.25 after being $1.14 this time last week. Not surprisingly, what betting is taking place has been for Etienne at $4. Shannon Taylor is $1.50 to win the Australian Middleweight Title at Penrith Leagues Club on Saturday night. Taylor has a formidable record, having won 31 of his 35 starts, 21 of those by KO. Two years ago he lasted six rounds against Shane Mosely, and his last fight, although it was four months ago, was a first round KO decision against Mamurat Ali. We have already seen nearly $4000 for the Jeff Fenech trained Taylor, but his opponent, Marc 'The Purple Assassin' (where do they get some of these names?) Bargero has some sort of a record with 32 wins from 44 starts, but only 8 of those were by KO, so he can go the distance. We think the money will continue to come for Taylor, but if the fight goes the distance, Bargero is a good hope to get a points decision. FOOTBALL Centrebet caught a cold when Manchester United beat flu-ridden Juventus at Old Trafford on Wednesday and, as if United landing a monster gamble was not sufficiently bad news, Ruud van Nistelrooy scored their winning goal to make matters worse. Punters backed the Red Devils from $2.20 on Sunday to $1.55 at kick-off time as rumours filtered through that the ‘Old Lady’ was very crook indeed, but not as sick as Centrebet felt after United's top striker put the game out of Juve's reach with five minutes remaining. Van Nistelrooy has scored one or more goals in five of the English club's last six games and, you have guessed it, he failed to find the net on the only occasion that punters did not lump on him to rustle the onion bag. At least Centrebet had a very nice result on its Old Trafford handicap betting market thanks to Pavel Nedved's stoppage-time strike for the team from Turin. The handicap tie was a skinner as 99 per cent of punters backed either United minus one goal or Juve plus one. Some consolation on a bad night. Overall, Centrebet and its punters shared the spoils on the Champions League's return following its two-month winter break. Good results for Centrebet were $1.45 Arsenal's draw versus Ajax, $2.50 Leverkusen's loss to Newcastle and $2 Deportivo's defeat at the hands of Basel, while punters celebrated $2.45 Barcelona's win over Internazionale, $2.40 Valencia's triumph against Roma and, of course, United's victory. Basically, a good week for punters who opposed Italian clubs in the Champions League, with even Milan struggling to dispose of rank outsiders Lokomotiv Moscow. The English FA Cup fifth round took place last weekend and its results put favourite backers in party mood. Odds-on gamblers got stuck into $1.36 Wolverhampton, $1.50 Chelsea and $1.65 Sheffield United. Surprisingly there was relatively little action on the tie of the round with punters perhaps unsure as to the motives of United and Arsenal. As luck would have it, though, those punters who got involved backed $3.10 Arsenal meaning that Centrebet lost money on a Red Devils home defeat, something that happens as often as a football boot strikes David Beckham on his left eyebrow. YACHTING It’s been a ‘black’ opening for followers of ‘black’ boat team New Zealand, losing the first three races in the best of 9 series, as supporters lost over $100,000 and a large slice of faith, in their quest to retain the ‘Auld Mug’. The betting has certainly been brisk with all bet types well supported by both European followers of Alinghi, and New Zealand clients for Team New Zealand. One New Zealand client remained loyal to the cause by placing $5000 on Team NZ to win flight 1 at $1.80 and buttered up again at $1.90 to win flight two just to literally see his money go sailing to Australia. The betting now well and truly favours Alinghi who are $1.14 to take the ‘Mug’ back to Europe for the first time, while Team NZ are $5 to retain it. Betting on flight four has Alinghi solid favourite at $1.62 with Team NZ $2.25 outsiders, nevertheless they have still retained their supporters having been backed in from $2.40 as another NZ client placed $5000. Loyalty can be an expensive attribute. RUGBY UNION The long awaited commencement to the Rugby season kicked off with the Six Nations tournament on last weekend, and not without a surprise result. Wales went down 30-22 to Italy in probably their biggest upset since being beaten by Western Samoa at Cardiff Stadium 13-16 in October of ’91. One English client thought placing £5000 at -12½ at $1.90 would be fruit for the side board, but the Italians put up a solid display to lead all the way against a disappointing Welsh side. In other games, Ireland trounced Scotland in Edinburgh 36-6 and England prevailed 25-17 at Twickenham against France, in the match many believe will decide the Six Nations crown. Ireland was very well supported at -3½ points against the Scots with one bet of $4000 at $1.90 then followed by another £3000 at $1.85 before shortening their handicap into -5½ points by game time. England were also well supported at -9½ however not to the extent of Ireland, while most fans believed the Italy v Wales game was too hard to call. England are now the short quote of $1.16 from Ireland $5.50 and France $6.50 in what is now a three horse race. The games this week see Ireland go to Italy, England to inflict more damage to Welsh pride at Cardiff, while France host Scotland in a game where both coaches have wielded the axe including fly-half Gerald Merceron. The Super 12’s season also kicks off this week with some crackerjack games. NSW Waratahs host the Auckland Blues, while the Reds host the Brumbies in Brisbane. The Waratahs have been well supported at $1.80 and -2½ at $1.90 with one punter from Brisbane placing $10,000 on the Waratahs to suggest they’ll cover, and with Carlos Spencer in doubt for the Blues it may prove to be the case. The Brumbies’ have been well supported to defeat the ‘Reds’, backed from $2 into $1.90 with successive wagers of $5000. The Brumbies recent trial form has been anything but spectacular, however with the return of Joe Roff our punters believe they can return to the winners list over the Toutai Kefu led Reds. The other games provide local derbys’ with the Cats solid 10½ point favourites over the Bulls, the Stormers 7½ point favourites over the Sharks, while in New Zealand the Crusaders -15½ points appear too strong for an injury depleted Wellington Hurricanes, and the Highlanders 9½ point favourites over the Chiefs in Hamilton. No doubt it’s a round that will provide some memorable contests mixed with a few surprises. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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