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Centrebet Capers
CRICKET The summer of cricket wasn't as boring as we all thought it would be, and with India showing that they are more than capable of mixing it with the Aussies, we all look forward to the finals series which begin at the MCG with a day/night match on Friday. Australia goes into the first match as favourites at $1.47, and a short $1.30 to take the best of three series. There has been plenty of money placed on Australia to win the series, including bets of $USD 30,000 and $USD 20,000, both at $1.35, taken before the series began. Apart from that, there is also a multi bet worth $170,000 from an outlay of $90,000 that one Australian client is sweating on after getting two short priced soccer teams over the line in early January. It hasn't been all one sided action however as this week we have taken bets of $10,000 and $4000 for India to win the series at $3.30, bets that we will be more than happy to pay. Similar to the way that the whole summer has been, our Indian punters are backing Australia to win the first match, while Aussie punters are going with the value, backing India. The first few bets on the match were from India, totalling just over $USD 28,000 for Australia to win at $1.47, but to offset that, our local punters have been keen to take the $2.65 for an Indian victory. The toss will be crucial, as this series has been dominated by the team batting first, especially in the day/nighters Betting will be available throughout each match, and there is also betting up on the most runs and wickets for the finals. Adam Gilchrist, Ricky Ponting and Sachin Tendulkar are $7 equal favourites to make the most runs, but with the possibility that the series could only be two matches long, it really is difficult for punters to find the winner. They are faced with a similar dilemma trying to find the highest wicket taker, where we have installed Brett Lee the $7 favourite ahead of Jason Gillespie at $7.50. Brett Lee was under a barrage of criticism before taking three wickets in Perth, and to show how forgiving punters can be, he is already our worst result to continue on with that form. TENNIS Roger Federer and Justine Henin Hardene vindicated the opinions of the bookies when both pre-post favourites saluted in their respective titles at the Australian Open. Amazingly, the exposure in our multi books on the two fav's winning was nowhere near what it normally is as punters skirted around Federer in particular, until he reached the final, but by then he was a very warm $1.40 chance. One multiple bet that did get up which we were pleased to pay out on was a $500 wager placed by sports journalist Jon Anderson on Radio 3AW last week. The bet, $500 on Federer and Henin Hardene at $6, was placed with all winnings going to the Asthma Foundation, so hopefully that $3000 contribution will assist in the ongoing research into a condition which affects so many. Women’s tennis always seems to be in the firing line of the critics, but we can report that the betting on this years women’s final nearly doubled what we held on the men’s! The odds were very similar, with Henin Hardene at $1.40, and Kim Clijsters around the $2.90 mark. Although Kim had been struggling with an ankle injury, that didn't deter an avalanche of bets coming from Aussie punters, who really have adopted here as their own. The largest individual bet for Clijsters was only $8000, but the support was endless. Bigger punters preferred her Belgian compatriot, including $ USD 30,000 at $1.40, and also a bet of $8000 coming from the USA for Justine to win in 3 sets at $3.50. After cruising through the first set, that bet looked in trouble, but Clijsters fought back to win the second, before being well beaten in the third. While she was definitely injured going onto this series, 'Aussie Kim's' confidence has taken a battering from these defeats in Majors, and we can only wonder if she will ever win one. Following on from the demolition job that he did on Ferrero in the semi-final, it was hard to go past Roger Federer as the likely men’s winner, especially after Marat Safin had had to endure such a tough path to get to the final. Betting also indicated that, with Federer at $1.40, and Safin at $3. There was plenty around for the Russian to win, including two $10,000 bets, but in an even betting final, we also saw bets of $30,000 and $25,000 come for the winner at the short odds. Federer had been favourite since betting opened, and the biggest bet landed before the actual final was a $20,000 wager placed by a Sydney client at $3.75. Both LLeyton Hewitt and Mark Philippoussis made earlier than expected exits from the Australian Open, but both have been busy with the defence of the Davis Cup which begins in Adelaide tomorrow (Fri). Australia are set down to play Sweden, and the poor Swedes wont know what hit them when the have to play in 40 degrees, and on rebound ace ! That is a lethal cocktail in itself, but Australia seemed to have taken the Davis Cup to another level, and it is treated very seriously. There aren't too many surprises with the betting to win the tie, Australia are at $1.14, and Sweden at $5.50, while Australia are $4 equal favourites with Spain to defend the title. Betting on the first two singles matches will be available Thursday afternoon once the make-up of the teams is known. AUSTRALIAN RULES If you can believe the early money on this years AFL Premiership, then it will be the year of the Hawks. Hawthorn have been best backed of those in the market, firming from an isolated $20 into a general quote of $11. We now have the Hawks at $10, but this week have taken two separate bets of $5000 for them to make the final 8 at $1.40. Since Port Adelaide's Josh Francou was ruled out for the season, we haven't seen any money at all for Port at $7, but they had been solid in the betting up until that point. Brisbane remain favourites at $3.20, but money has also dried up for them as news of the worsening condition of Michael Voss' knee has become public. As far as the wooden spoon goes, Carlton and the Western Bulldogs still head the markets, but punters have gone away from the obvious here. It has been Melbourne ($5), Geelong ($10), St Kilda ($21) and the West Coast at $34 who have been the target of punters. Last week we opened Brownlow Medal betting for this season, and there was an immediate reaction. Many would not be surprised by the names at the top of the charts; they are the same names each year! Nathan Buckley heads the market at $11, but the danger backing Buckley is that Collingwood might 'rest' their star player during matches as they did last season. Ben Cousins, Shane Crawford and Andrew McLeod are on the next line of betting at $15, with McLeod already meeting with large support. Adam Goodes, who tied for first last season, is nothing like the 200/1 that he was at the same time last year. We have already taken bets of $500 each way, and $400 to win at $26, and the popular Swans player will definitely be one of our worst results before the season gets under way. Several Swans players have been backed, including Adam Schneider, who was backed to win $250,000 by a Victorian client with a wager of $500 each way at $401. St Kilda's Lenny Hayes ($500 each way at $51) and Port Adelaide’s Warren Tredrea ($ 500 at $67) are two others who have been backed to win large amounts already, so the boom that Brownlow betting has experienced looks set to continue. ELECTIONS Peter Beattie is a raging $1.01 shot to continue being the Premier of Queensland after this Saturdays State election, and on face value, even that appears to be huge ' over the odds' The Labor party come into this ballot holding a commanding 51 seat majority of the Coalition, yet we have taken nearly $2000 in bets for Lawrence Springborg to do the impossible and win. His odds have firmed from $34 into $21, and there is still a sprinkling of bets coming through. There is also a market available on the performance of the Labor Party, and it has revealed an interesting trend. As we have often said, the betting moves or the 'punters poll' is always a good indicator of how things may pan out, and it looks as though the smart money is tipping another big victory. Our market went up in increments of two for Labor to win from 45 seats and beyond, and ended with '66 or more', with 66 seats being the current number. The early media speculation was that the Beattie Government would lose anything up to 15 seats, but we have found the most popular options being 60 seats or more, so that is going to be our prediction after looking at where the money has gone. On a national level, new Labor leader Mark Latham has impressed punters, and has been saying all the right things in public. The big question is whether or note he can maintain his 'new look', and secondly whether he can deliver what he has promised. For the time being, punters are prepared to get behind Latham, with bets of $4000 (twice), and three bets of $2000 forcing us to bring his price in to $3. John Howard's odds have eased to $1.33, but he also has admirers including a bet of $10,000 from a New South Wales resident coming in two weeks ago at $1.28. GOLF For followers of 'Gerard Says' last weeks result in the FBR Open would have been met with a warm reception as Jonathan Kaye and Chris Riley were earmarked as golfers to follow, given their good early season form. Punters did not forget to back Kaye either with one wager of $300ew at $51 pre tournament along with good support during the event, the last wager being $1000 at $4.50 prior to the commencement of the final round. And although eight players were within two shots of the lead as the final group of DiMarco, Mickelson and Kaye completed the outward nine, it was Kaye who held his composure with four consecutive birdies from hole 12 to 15. At this stage Kaye and DiMarco were eighteen under par and two shots ahead of Mickelson, but it was the less experienced Kaye who handled the pressure better as DiMarco bogeyed 16 and 17 while Mickelson bogeyed the last three, leaving Kaye with a two shot cushion coming up eighteen. Steve Flesch and Vijay Singh both shot closing rounds of five under 66 to finish in a tie for third, three shots adrift of Kaye. It was Singhs' eleventh consecutive top ten finish on tour as he now chases Jack Nicklaus, record of fourteen set in 1977. This week we head east to California for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am which incorporates the magnificent Spyglass Hill, Poppy Hills and Pebble Beach courses. Vijay Singh has been installed favourite, currently at $5.50 after two separate wagers, $5000 at $6.00 and $15,000 at $5.75. These punters are hoping he can go one better than his previous best finishes here, runner-up in 2000 and '01. Davis Love has also been solid in the betting at $7.50 as the defending champion but perhaps the dark horse is marl O’Meara who has successful five times at Pebble Beach, the last being 1997.Punters have found support for Tom Lehman, $500ew at $61, Nicolas Fasth, $400ew at $126 and Paul Stankowski, $300 at $151 however all have struggled to find form in recent times and suspect will find this course tough to conquer. On the European tour Miguel Angel Jimenez won his eighth title at the Johnny Walker Classic in Bangkok as he over hauled leader Thomas Bjorn with a closing round four under par 68 to win by two shots. Jyoti Ranhawa finished at a frenetic pace with a final round 64 to finish in a tie for second with Bjorn. A host of players including the consistent Raphael Jacquelin and David Smail finished a further shot back in a tie for fourth while Ernie Els commenced his final round slowly after getting himself back in the tournament before finishing with five consecutive birdies to be four shots off the winner. The tightness at the top of the leader board indicates how even the European tour is becoming and should provide many more exciting finishes as the season progresses. The tour heads Down Under this week for a combined event with the Australasian tour, the Heineken Classic at the time honoured Royal Melbourne golf club. Ernie Els once again should prove tough to beat and punters have rallied again with one wager from a South African client of $20,000 at $4.50. Best backed to beat him home has been Englishman Paul Casey with one wager of $500ew at $23 followed by another $1000 at $21 while Australians Stuart Appleby, $12 and Adam Scott, $13, also have their share of admirers. With the wealth of talent form the European tour including Ian Poulter and Raphael Jacquelin, two of the most consistent players on tour, then we are sure to have an exciting finish on what is regarded as one of the finest courses in the world. AMERICAN FOOTBALL All the talk following the Superbowl has been about Janet Jackson’s 'revelation', and the ensuing uproar about the whole event from a country that has led the way in the film and television industry focussing on sex and violence has been quite amusing. As they say 'only in America'............... Anyway, bookies got a dream result on the Superbowl when New England kicked a field goal in the dying seconds to win 32-29. As is the case with most finals, we found the underdogs, in this case Carolina, very easy to lay at around the $3.20 mark. Some of the larger bets included $15,000 and $12,000, both coming from Canada. One large bet of $25,000 was taken for New England when they touched $1.35, but we found that the bulk of support for the Patriots was on them to cover a 6.5 point handicap, which looked a certainty until Carolina drew level in the final few minutes. Provided New England didn't score a touchdown we were in 'safe' territory, and although the favourites won the game, Centrebet recorded a very good win. There was hardly a corner of the globe that we didn't see a bet come in from on the Superbowl, with our two biggest 'handicap' bets, both of $ USD 25,000, coming from the USA, while one Norwegian client went against the normal trend of 'favourite and overs' by coupling up Carolina with the start into the over 37.5 points. His bet of 80,000 NOK ($16,000) yielded a tidy win of just over $43,000. SOCCER Was English Premier League referee Graham Barber correct to allow Ruud van Nistelrooy's goal for Manchester United versus Southampton on Saturday? Not one to get creosote on his trousers from sitting on fences, Saints manager Gordon Strachan said that FIFA may as well scrap the offside law if officials were going to award such goals as Van Nistelrooy's weekend winner. Had the game taken place four months ago then Strachan would have had a supporter in one of England's top referees. But, as 2002 World Cup official Graham Poll pointed out in Monday's edition of one of the United Kingdom's newspapers, Van Nistelrooy's ploy of standing offside is a clever way of using the new interpretation of the offside law that FIFA issued in October 2003. Soccer's governing body reinforced the idea that occupying an offside position is not an offence. The law states that referees should penalise a player standing in an offside position if he interferes with play, interferes with an opponent or gains an advantage from occupying that area. According to Poll's view of the revised rule, Van Nistelrooy did not commit a punishable offence and, therefore, Barber was right to turn away Southampton's protests. The decision made a huge difference to Centrebet and our punters, with a swing against us of more than 500,000 dollars. Men with no sympathy for Strachan are two Norwegian punters who each won 200,000 kroner on five-leg accumulators that included the Red Devils at 1.28. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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