|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES It would be fair to say that whatever bad memories that bookies have had from previous Aussie Rules pre-season competitions were completely obliterated after last weekends results. No less than six outsiders won from the eight games played, and while betting was predominately much smaller than the normal matches during the season, we still recorded a very handy win. The biggest upset of the round was Brisbane's emphatic 37 point drubbing of Hawthorn. The Hawks were backed from $1.35 into $1.25, and included in the bets were two multiples, each of $20,000 that kicked off with Hawthorn. Some smaller punters recognised the value for the Lions ($3.75) even though they may not have recognised many of their team's faces, and if this was a Brisbane 'B' side, then there are ominous signs there for their opponents as they embark on a quest of four premierships in a row. Another interesting twist to this game came when Hawthorn coach Peter Scwab told the press that they would win both the pre-season competition and the 'day' premiership. We took dozens of bets for the Hawks to win both, possibly the last time anyone will be taking notice of Scwab's tips! Adelaide were also a solid go against St Kilda on Sunday, but were no match for the Saints, going down by 13 points. The Crows were backed from $1.55 into $1.45, and were also the first leg of a $60,000 multiple that included three soccer matches later that night. All three of those won, so the Crows effectively cost this Victorian punter $197,000! Surprisingly, the quietest game of the round was the one that looked best on paper-Fremantle v Essendon. Granted the game was being played in the humidity of Darwin, but the biggest bet on the game was only $1200, and that was for Essendon at $2.25. Now that we have got the opening round out of the way, we are faced with what appears to be four even matches this week. West Coast are the new title favourites, mainly because of the rule that the team with the most goals in the first round will host the final. Carlton kicked 23 goals compared to the Eagles' 18, but the Eagles are expected to get a home game in the semi as well. That all sounds fine, apart from the fact that firstly they have to overcome Melbourne this week! We have rated the Demons a $2.30 chance, and a realistic chance of winning. The travelling form of the West Coast was far from good last year (only 3 wins from 10 matches away from Subiaco), so that has to be taken into account. Essendon v Brisbane is a tough one to call on Saturday night at Telstra Dome. We have awarded slight favouritism ($1.80) to Essendon, but only because they have shown a bit more commitment to the pre-season comp than Brisbane. Already there has been good money for both sides, a sign that punters think both sides will be eager to win. The other two matches don’t look like reaching great heights from a betting perspective, but are also difficult to access. The 'young brigade' at Carlton are $1.80 to edge out Geelong on Saturday afternoon, while similarly, a youthful St Kilda side are $1.75 to get the cash over Richmond. CRICKET Queensland broke nearly every record in the book when they scored 405 runs at home against Western Australia in an ING Cup fixture a few weeks back, so it is hard to argue against the $1.55 that we have opened with for the Bulls to win the Cup final against the same team on Sunday. The only major change from the previous game is that the Bulls will have rookie keeper Chris Hartley replacing Wade Seccombe, who has been called up for national duty. While Seccombe is a big loss, Hartley is a good keeper, and is no slouch with the bat either. He was the first Queensland batsman to score a century on debut since Matthew Hayden when Queensland played South Australia before Christmas. Home ground advantage is important, but not as important as it is in the Pura Cup, but punters do place a lot of emphasis on the home sides. The $1.55 opening quote has been taken by two Queensland punters who invested just under $8000 between them, and as yet, we haven't been able to strike a blow with Western Australia at $2.40. On the international scene, Sri Lanka bounced back to win the second game of their series on Sunday, much to the dismay of punters. The Australian side were easy to lay at $1.45, including one bet of $4500, but our Indian clients kept away from this match, a good strategic decision! Yesterday (Wed), the third match of the series was played in Colombo, and like the first two games, the Aussies went in as favourites at $1.45, and although they were quoted at $1.45 at the time, had to overcome several hurdles before winning in the 48th over. The fourth match will be played in Colombo on Sunday, and the Aussies are again $1.45. ENTERTAINMENT The Academy Awards are only a few days away, and now we are seeing some serious money coming for each of the six categories we are covering. All of the lead-up awards have been given, and they revealed a few surprises, none bigger then Johnny Depp getting the Screen Actors Guild Award for the best actor. All the talk had been for Sean Penn or Bill Murray, but the win by Depp has opened up the betting, with Penn 'easing' from $1.60 to $1.80, and Murray easing from $2.20 out to $2.50. One of the bigger bets taken a few weeks ago was $5000 for Penn, and while he is still the one to beat in our opinion, it is hard to overlook the SAG awards as they have a history of being a good guide to the Oscars. Depp was as long as $26 in some quarters, so it was difficult to re-price the event, but we settled on $5.50, and at that quote there has been interest. Naomi Watts' task of walking away with the best actress Oscar has become a little bit harder following Charlize Theron winning the SAG award. We have slashed Theron's price from $1.25 into $1.10, with Watts drifting to $11. When Naomi was first nominated, we did see some parochial money, but that has all but disappeared. Apart from the 'best actor' category, short priced favourites are the order of the day, but short quotes don't always prove that big of a deterrent as evidenced by a big bet for Peter Jackson to win the best director Oscar. Jackson is quoted at $1.05, and one New Zealander this week plonked a whopping $50,000 on Jackson to be victorious. We don’t know whether he has any close affiliation to the film apart from being a Kiwi, but a niggling doubt must linger following Peter Weir's win in the BAFTA's last week in London. ELECTIONS Opposition leader Mark Latham spent some time here in Central Australia early this week, and by all reports showed more than a passing interest in how he was performing in the betting ring! The good news for Latham is that punters are impressed, and even though an election hasn't even been called yet, Centrebet has already seen in excess of $100,000 wagered on the result. As reported last week, Latham has been backed from $2.70 into $2.55 over the past two weeks as he travels the country putting forward his ideas. Just over $20,000 forced the price change, but it hasn't been all 'one way' action. News polls released on Tuesday pointed towards John Howard as the preferred PM, and that was all it took for bets of $4000 and $2500 to arrive for Mr Howard to continue on as Prime Minister, and if this is already shaping as the biggest betting event of the year, even surpassing the final of Euro 2004. SOCCER Arsenal are long odds-on favourites to win the English Premier League after extending their incredible record against London rivals and fellow championship contenders Chelsea. Punters stayed well away from the Blues on our match betting market, perhaps because they were aware of the Highbury club's formidable recent form against the men from Stamford Bridge. Believe it or not - and you should because it is true - but Arsenal have not tasted defeat in 15 league games versus Chelsea since Arsenel Wenger took charge of the Gunners. Punters adopted the X2 soccer betting strategy, backing the draw at 3.20 and the visitors at 2.65. Goals from Patrick Vieira and Edu knocked another nail in the Blues' coffin as far as the title goes and rewarded punters who did their homework. We are kicking ourselves for not making more money out of Manchester United's home draw with Leeds. Not content with pocketing six-figures worth of singles on the match and seeing thousands of soccer accumulators bite the dust, we are annoyed for not quoting will/will not score prices on Ruud van Nistelrooy. Punters love backing the Red Devils striker to score one or more goals against mediocre visitors to Old Trafford and his failure to find the back of the Whites net shocked many football fans. Not those who know their statistics, though. Leeds are Van Nistelrooy's bogey team. The comeback of the week was Milan's fight back from two goals down to beat Internazionale in the match of the Italian Serie A round. It marked the 13th time since January 1, 1999 that a Serie A side have come back from two or more goals down to claim victory. Italy's top teams - Milan, Roma and Juventus - all collected maximum points over the weekend, sparking joy for multi punters. BASKETBALL West Sydney's convincing win over Townsville on Wednesday night secured third position for the Razorbacks and pleased a lot of punters in the process. The minus 5.5 point opening quote was quickly snapped and punters were still taking the minus 8 as the game tipped of. With Townsville holding a three point lead three minutes into the final quarter they may not have been completely at ease but the home side finished powerfully with a 23-7 run to all but extinguish the Croc's season. That win now means West Sydney get a home final against the winner of Perth v Cairns which would be considered an easier assignment than taking on the Tigers or possibly Adelaide. It leaves Brisbane facing the possibility of taking on Melbourne who have beaten them in two out of three games this season. Meanwhile Sydney and Wollongong sit back and watch the others battle it out for the right to get to the semi finals. This final round presents some problems for punters in trying to work out who has the most to play for and whether it all makes a difference anyway. End of season means awards time with discussions warming up about MVP and All-Star Five honours. It is impossible to look any further than Matt Nielsen as MVP of the league. He has delivered for the Kings this season with consistency that has been astonishing. Mark Bradtke cannot be overlooked as he has again proved to be the best big man in the league by quite a margin. The other three positions are far from clear cut but our choices are Stephen Black, Mike Chappell and Martin Cattalini. GOLF Once again the term 'horses for courses' came to the fore at last weeks Nissan Open when defending champion Mike Weir held off a stirring challenge by Shigeki Maruyama to win back to back at Riviera Country Club. Maruyamas' run came to an end on the 72nd hole when his drive missed the fairway and he was unable to reach the green in two, eventually scoring a bogey to miss sending the championship to a play-off as Weir had done the previous year against Charles Howell. While there was good money for the likes of Woods and Singh, Weir also had his share of admirers and as mentioned in last weeks column, would prove hard to beat in what was a great betting event. This week we head to La Costa Resort in California for the sixth running of the WGC Accenture World match play, won last year by Tiger Woods. The history of this event suggests reputations produce no fears to players ranked lower than their opponents, and winners such as Steve Stricker and Kevin Sutherland hold testament to that. Punters nevertheless have supported this event with the mandatory following for Woods at $4.75 but also Vijay Singh, $9, Mike Weir, $15, Adam Scott, $34 and Thomas Bjorn, $51 all backed to win more than $50,000, add to this players of the calibre of Phil Mickelson, Davis Love and Retief Goosen and you have the perfect mixture for a great betting event. Centrebet hopes that history repeats itself with another surprise result. We also have another combined Nationwide/ Australasian tour event this week with the New Zealand PGA Championship held at Clearwater Country Club in Christchurch, New Zealand. Last year Ryan Palmer outlasted a much improved Andre Stolz with Kevin Johnson and David Bradshaw also figuring prominently. Punters have used the improved US showing through this event as a guide to chances and have backed them accordingly with Charles Warren, $81, Jason Caron, $51, Mike Sposa, $51, James Driscoll, $51, Scott Gutschewski, $34, Brett Wetterich, $51 and Jimmy Walker, $26, all backed to win $50,000 by a regular local golf client. This will still prove to be a difficult event to win, and as predicted last will see many players appearing to have an opportunity to win before someone, such as Ewan Walters last week, grabs the opportunity. Local players such as Nick O'Hern, $10, Scott Gardiner, $21 and Brendan Jones, $23 will all offer staunch resistance to the US contingent. Finally we have the first significant women's event for the year, prior to the commencement of the European and US tours, with the ANZ Australian Masters at Royal Pines in Queensland. This event has been shared the past three years by Laura Davies, Anika Sorenstam and Karrie Webb, a pattern which appears unlikely to be broken as they share the top of the betting at $13, $2.25 and $4.50 respectively. If there is to be an upset then Rachel Teske,$13, a top ten finisher the last three years, or Hilary Lunke,$41, last years Masters winner on the LPGA tour, appear best equipped to do so. RUGBY UNION We have a break in Six Nations this week but already after two rounds betting would indicate only two countries hold a legitimate claim to the title, England at $1.55 and France at $2.35. There were no surprises last week with England being too powerful for Scotland at Murrayfield, winning 35-13, retaining the Calcutta Cup but failing to cover the 28½ points start. France, waking up after a sluggish start to defeat Italy 25-0 in France, but seeing two separate bets of $5,000 at $1.90, giving 33½ points start, remaining in the bag, while Ireland with Brian O'Driscoll returning, being far too classy for a hapless Wales in Dublin, winning 36-15 and easily covering the 9½ points start. While there were no real surprises in Six Nations, which was not the case in the first week of Super 12s with four of the six favourites tasting defeat. First up saw the Highlanders proving too powerful for a slightly undermanned Reds outfit in Invercargill, winning 39-8, followed later that evening with the Stormers proving too organised for the Cats at Ellis Park, winning 28-22. These games were not too well supported by punters but the fact both favourites won and covered seemed a green light to open the wallet on 'Super Saturday'. Firstly the clinical Waratahs dismantled a disappointing Crusaders 43-19 in Christchurch, followed by another disappointing effort by the Hurricanes as they took on the Chiefs in less than ideal conditions in Hamilton, failing 7-19. These results put punters on the back foot, but next game last years invincible Blues were to take on the Brumbies in Canberra, surely a matter of how much you put on as to how much you won, after all the Brumbies trial form has been terrible! With several bets of $10,000 on the Blues giving 9½ points start at $1.90 and a further avalanche at $1.33 to win, Centrebet was bracing itself for a poor result, and that appeared on track as Rupeni Caucaunibuca scored the first try, however the Brumbies led by George Gregan, Steve Larkham and Stirling Mortlock managed to turn a high quality game in their favour and win 44-27. The final game on the Saturday evening saw the Sharks upset the Bulls in Pretoria 23-18, in what was a poor betting game. This week the Crusaders take on the Blues in Christchurch, the Blues $1.42 to win the game and giving 6½ points start at $1.90 .The loser of this match could find itself on the bottom of the Super 12s table which would be somewhat of a contradiction given their preseason prices of $2.25 and $4 to win the title. Following games have the Brumbies $1.04 favourites and giving 26½ points start against the Cats while the Waratahs are $1.08 and must give the Sharks 18½ points start at $1.90, neither of these games attracting too much attention in the early stages of betting. Other Saturday games sees the Reds $1.70 and 2½ point favourites against the Chiefs and the Highlanders $1.65 and giving 3½ points to the Stormers in Cape Town, but the best backed team of the week has been the Bulls, $2 into $1.85 against the Hurricanes in Pretoria on the strength of two $5000 wagers from the UK. As was predicted last week, there appears to be few upsets on paper, but as is the case with Super 12s nothing is certain. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
