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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES The Wizard Cup starts the weekend after this and at this stage there's no sign of any markets, and with the daily flow of player injuries, maybe betting won't be available until the latter part of next week. The pre-season comp has always been a trying few weeks for bookies as many sides approach it differently. Who will ever forget the infamous Brisbane v Geelong game in Cairns a few years ago? There are similar plunges each year as teams rest their big names waiting for the season proper. The other problem with it is that often these matches are played in oppressive weather conditions, so you can't blame clubs for not going 'flat out' or bookies for not putting the head on the block too early. One thing you can bet on though is footy starved punters around Australia embracing the Cup, so we all go into each game extremely warily. For as many plunges that have been landed, there have been just as many that have missed, and it does give those who follow some of the bottom sides the chance to back a winner as quite often it is those teams who try that little bit harder to win some pretty good prizemoney. So the title market won't be available before Monday, with each games betting options not available until the day before the match line-ups which will be crucial. As far as the day premiership goes, we did take a bet of $2000 for Port Adelaide this week at $3.85, but apart from that bet the reigning premiers have been hard to sell. Geelong continue to attract lots of smaller bets, and are now into $8, and the injury to Collingwood captain Nathan Buckley has seen the price for the Pies drift from $19 out to $23. RUGBY LEAGUE The Bulldogs went into the World Club Challenge as despised outsiders, but a second half revival saw the Australian side nearly come home with the chocolates. Leeds were all the rage in the betting, firming from an isolated $1.60 into $1.38 at kick off time. No doubt the plunge was initiated by the naming of Brad Clyde in the Bulldogs side, with many questioning how legitimately the Aussie side would play, but Clyde's inclusion was due to them being short of players. It was still a good side on paper, and the game proved that. The final scoreline of 39-32 in favour of Leeds wasn't the shocking result it could have been when they led 38-12 with 20 minutes to go. Although there were a couple of substantial wagers for Leeds (including $10,000 at $1.50 and $20,000 at $1.45), there was also plenty of support for them to beat a handicap of 7.5 then 8.5 points start. Some of those bets included $8000 at -7½, two bets of £2000 at the same handicap, and another bet of $7500 when the line moved to -8½, so the second half comeback by Canterbury was well received by us. The 2005 season is fast approaching, and we are beginning to see action across all 'futures' options. The Bronco's have been backed to win over $100,000 in the past few weeks, and have shortened into $12 from $13, and they have also attracted a bet of $30,000 to make the final eight at $1.50. St George Illawarra continue to firm, now into $7.50, and the only side that hasn't attracted any serious money to win the premiership is the Bulldogs, who are now out to $3.50. At the other end of the scale, Canberra have been a solid go to finish at the bottom of the ladder. After opening at $11, they were in to $7.50 until another bet of $6000 this week forced that price down to $6.50. There have been two separate bets of $1000 for Wests at $5 (now $5.50), as well as $500 for the Knights at $34. Souths are the favourites at $2.20. GOLF Phil Mickelson supporters had to wait a week longer than expected when he sealed his first win of the 2005 PGA season with a convincing victory in the FBR Open. He was tipped as the 'one' to beat at the Bob Hope the previous week, but could only finish in a tie for twelfth, however his seventeen under par and five shot win at his second home in Scottsdale has signaled his intentions for the 2005 season. Punters rallied behind world number one Vijay Singh, who carried one $30,000 wager at his opening quote of $5, while Mickelson, second pick at $9 was again friendless in the betting. Singh was never in the hunt after being one over par at the halfway mark, and although he finished well to complete the tournament in a tie for eleventh, Vijay himself would have been disappointed with his efforts. This left the consistent David Toms, up and comer Kevin Na and warhorse Scott McCarron to put pressure on Mickelson, who failed to master his driver but was nothing short of sublime on and around the greens. The five shot margin over Na and McCarron was Mickelson's largest ever on the PGA tour, and after thirteen top ten finishes last year, he has started this season where he left off. We head to California this week for the Pebble Beach Pro Am, and already this seasons results have got the punters confused. Mickelson and an out of form Davis Love have been backed to win over $100,000 by a regular client. The twist is however, he is an avid follower of Vijay Singh, and he is the defending champion. Singh heads the betting at $5 from Mickelson at $7 and Love at $17. Love was a winner here in '01 and '03, which lends weight to his support, while Mickelson last won here back in '98, however one cannot dismiss the fact that Singh is the defending champion coupled with a couple of runner-up finishes in '00 and '01. I suspect him to bounce back after last weeks poor start. The combined European and Australasian tours produced a thrilling finish at the Heineken Classic played at Royal Melbourne. Ernie Els, going for four wins in a row, was backed to win over $200,000 at $3.75 and then $3.50 and four holes into the final round was handily placed, one shot behind co-leaders Craig Parry, Nick O'Hern and young professional Jarrod Lyle. It’s seldom that Els doesn't win a tournament from this position and it seemed immortality beckoned, however uncharacteristic bogeys on 14 and 18 put pay to his challenge. We were left with a two way play-off between perennial winner Parry and lefty Nick O'Hern. O'Hern was chasing his first win on the European tour after eleven top ten finishes last year, and he had two identical putts on the first two play-off holes from seven feet to secure that win. Both slid to the right of the hole. A ten foot putt to save par by Parry on the next hole also stole the elusive win from the likeable O'Hern. Opportunities seldom knock three times, so as the script may have it, Parry then sunk an eight foot putt on the fourth play-off hole before O'Hern missed his seven footer. Parry was not without his admirers as we laid one $5,000 bet at $4 after he trailed O'Hern by one with 18 holes to play. Play-off betting was also brisk as we laid an $8,000 bet at $2.20 on O'Hern, followed by another $5,000 at $2.10 before $5,000 on Parry at $1.75. All in all it proved a great betting finale for a great tournament. The combined tours head to New Zealand this week for the Holden New Zealand Open, sanctioned for the first time by the European tour. Last weeks winner, Craig Parry, has been installed favourite at $10 ahead of O'Hern at $12 and inform local, David Smail at $19. Best backed has been Peter O'Malley at $26 and Brett Rumford at $31, both to win in excess of $100,000, however neither has form at the track. Come to think of it, neither has any form at all, however this event can produce the odd surprise, as evidenced by last years $67 winner in Terry Price and Mahal Pearce the year before. RUGBY UNION Last weeks Six Nations matches produced a surprise result and some surprisingly tight matches. Wales beat England at Millennium stadium for the first time since 1997, prevailing 11-9, while France scrapped home with a seven point victory over Scotland at home, thanks to a late try to Damien Taille. Ireland were even less impressive with a 28-17 win over Italy, away at the Stadio Flamino. The win could have dyer consequences with injuries to Captain Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy. As is the norm, betting in the first week was slow, however there was good money for England at $1.50 and conceding 5½ points. Our first wager was $20,000 from the UK at the win while $10,000 came for them at the start from a client in South Africa. Wales had their admirers at $2.55 on the strength of some injury concerns to the visiting Poms, but surely a victory was wishful thinking. Well, wish is what Welsh fans got with a Gavin Henson penalty goal from 44 metres out, in the last minutes of the match. That win has thrown Six Nations betting on its head, with France now favourites at $2.90 from Ireland at $3.10, England at $4.50 and Wales now in the mix at $5. Betting this week however sees England at home in Twickenham $1.62 favourites over France and conceding 3½ points. That seems to make a mockery of the tournament betting if the result goes the way of punters, with England securing a win. The results of last week have also tightened up the betting on what would have normally been considered at ‘gimme’ in the other two games. Wales must travel to Italy where they are $1.16 favourites and conceding 12½ points, while Ireland travel to Scotland in a real danger game. Ireland are $1.35 and 8½ point favourites while Scotland look value at $3.15. Perhaps no O'Driscoll, no Ireland. On the Super 12s front, one aspiring punter from New Zealand has placed $50,000 on the Canterbury Crusaders to make the semi finals at $1.40. The Queensland Reds have also been the medium of heavy support after a couple of impressive trial wins, backed from $31 into $21 and carrying one $2,000 wager. The Brumbies still lead the betting at $3.65 ahead of the Blues at $3.85, however betting is starting to heat up prior to kick-off in a fortnight. BASKETBALL There has been a lot of interest and plenty of action in the basketball world with the local scene being in (WNBL), or approaching (NBL) playoff time. Semi final weekend in the WNBL promised plenty and delivered even more with the competing teams producing two outstanding games of basketball. Both games followed similar scripts with the favoured home teams opening up substantial early leads only to be reeled in by the visitors. Bulleen got to within two points of Dandenong but couldn't go on with it, coming up four points short. In the elimination semi, Adelaide did a little better, overcoming their large early deficit to hit the front in the fourth quarter but finally failing in overtime by the smallest possible margin. This game was highlighted by outstanding individual performances from Snell (Syd) and Phillips (Adel). WNBA scouts at the game to watch Snell could not help but have been impressed by Erin Phillips also and her consistent season should be rewarded by a WNBA tryout. Punters got it right backing both of the home teams to win whilst steering clear of the handicap which neither of them covered. Turnover in the WNBL has steadily increased over the four seasons we have offered this competition with bets now regularly being taken from all over the planet. Whilst this competition provides the least turnover of the nine basketball leagues that we offer it may not retain that ranking for long if the standard of basketball displayed over the weekend is maintained. Whilst on the subject of turnover we have witnessed greater interest in basketball overall with numerous bets of over $10,000 being taken every day of the week. A couple of the bigger bets in the past week were two wagers of $20,000 each at $1.91 on Washington at minus 4 against Indiana. Juan Dixon made two free throws in the final seconds for Washington to stretch the margin to four points meaning those bets became a push with money being refunded. Not so fortunate was the investor who had $40,000 on West Sydney receiving 9½ points against Melbourne in the NBL. A 19-0 run by the Tigers to end the third quarter gave them the upper hand and despite some anxious moments late in the game the Razorbacks were unable to get the margin back to single figures. Also having no luck was the punter who had $30,000 at $2.25 on Sacramento against Phoenix. After trailing for most of the game the Suns got up by 2 points. In the NBL Wollongong have been installed at the top of Championship betting after defeating the Kings in their house on Wednesday but will need to maintain their winning form if they are to go into the finals with the top ranking. They are not the only team who need wins to shore up a favourable play-off seeding. In fact there are only two games between now and the end of the season that will not have a bearing on the make up of the top eight. It makes for exciting basketball and excellent betting opportunities. TENNIS This isn't a tennis wrap as such, there is so much tennis on around the world these days that it is impossible to update, but we have noticed something of interest since the day after the recent Aussie Open final. We have taken dozens of phone calls from punters wanting to bet on how long Lleyton Hewitt's engagement to soap star Bec Cartwright will last, and just as many wanting to know if we are betting on when the wedding will take place! No, we are not licensed to do so, and to be brutally honest, aren't interested in taking bets on such things. We'll leave that up to some of the other outlets in the Caribbean, but if I can find a bookie willing to take a bet on it, I want my money on Lleyton being with Bec Cartwight for a very long time! HARNESS RACING The AG Hunter Cup will be decided at Moonee Valley on Saturday night, and The Warp Drive is the opening fav at $3.50. We have already taken nearly $4000 for The Warp Drive, and while in fabulous form, so are several of the others. The 'standing start' feature of this race always makes it that little bit harder to work out, but it is worth pointing out that both Flashing Red and Hexus, second and third behind The Warp Drive in the Hobart Cup, meet that horse 10 metres better this week. Flashing Red is flying at the moment, and was impressive winning the Ballarat Cup, and looks good value at around the $11 mark, as does the Kiwi Mister DG ($13) who was runner-up in that race. Another Kiwi, Elsu, has returned to form with a slashing win after a couple of indifferent runs, and deserves his place in the market on the second line of betting at $3.75. Punters from New Zealand have taken that price despite the 20m handicap, but he is practically fool proof from a standing start. We will also cover the Australasian Trotting Championship, the Sky Channel FFA and the Caduceus Club Cup on Saturday night. As far as Inter Dominion betting goes, it has got off to a quiet start this year, but no doubt will warm up after this Saturday nights racing. Elsu is the current fav at $3.30, but we have serious doubts about Elsu's ability to handle three Inter heats in a week. Just an Excuse is the second elect at $6, and looks the ideal type. He's tough and durable, has won the last two NZ Trotting Cups as well as this seasons NZ FFA. The shortest of the Australian horses is Sokyola ($9) whose form tapered off before a disappointing run in the Ballarat Cup. He has gone for a much needed freshen up, and while be hard to beat. The Trotters Inter Dom is interesting given that the favourite, Take a Moment ($4.50) hasn't raced for 12 months. He did have a brilliant trial against the pacers last week, is a previous winner, and if anywhere near right, should win. Stablemate Lyall Creek is on the second line of betting at ($6) and it would be foolish to write off his chances just because he is 12 years old. Sumthingaboutmaori is Australia's best hope, and will be suited to the mobile starts in NZ. She beat the best we have to offer last week after overcoming an injury scare, and the only niggling doubt is that she didn't cope with the travel when in New Zealand last year. ELECTIONS With only a week to go in the Western Australian election, things have gone pear shaped for Opposition leader Colin Barnett following the release of his controversial plan to spend billions on a canal running from the Kimberley to Perth. It amazing how this revelation has turned the market upside down, and following on from that it is obvious that the residents of WA might not think it is such a good idea. When betting first opened on the WA election, we posted both Labor (Geoff Gallop) and the Coalition at $1.85. Opinion polls had Barnett ahead, but we know how hard it is to remove incumbents, and were happy to lay them as they got shorter. A couple of the bigger bets included $10,000 from a Sydney punter at $1.80, and $5000 from a Melbourne man at $1.60. The money from the West was scattered between both candidates, so we still had an open mind on which way it would go, and adopted a 'wait and see' attitude. Normally, unless something major happens, betting doesn't change much until the final few days before polling as things become clearer. Well the press release regarding the canal became a major event as in the following four days we took close to $20,000 worth of bets for Labor, and less than $500 for the Coalition. If that wasn't damning enough, all the bets came from Western Australia, so we have a similar position with the betting on this election as we did when Mark Latham released his forest policy in last years federal election, and we know what happened after that! The fluctuations this week have seen Labor come from $2.30 into $1.57, with a recent bet of $10,000 coming at $1.65. Now that the Coalition have drifted out to $2.25 we have seen a sprinkling of money for them (including one bet of $1200 ), but at the moment it is all one way traffic, and while this flies in the face of what the polls say, it is our suggestion that Labor will be re-elected for another term. ENTERTAINMENT The Academy Awards are fast approaching, and now that the major lead up awards (SAG) have been handed out, it is time to have a look at what has happened in the betting markets. The shortest priced fav is Jamie Foxx ($1.06) to win the best actor award. He does look the best of good things after winning the SAG awards, and there hasn't been any interest from the betting public in anyone else. There is genuine interest in more than one actor in all other categories, with the most popular being the best actress, and the best supporting actor. In the actress category, Hilary Swank opened second elect at $3.50, but then went on to win a Golden Globe as well as the SAG award for the same category. Those wins have seen Swank's price zoom in to $1.33, with another $2000 in bets coming this week at $1.40. Second pick is Annette Benning ($3.50) who was a big tip to beat Swank for an Oscar back in 2000, but failed to do so. Morgan Freeman is $1.60 to win his first Oscar after a career of near misses. Thomas Haden Church ($3.25) is the choice of many critics, and probably the movie 'Sideways' best chance of picking up one of the top six awards, but the smart money has come for Freeman after winning the SAG award. So far, close to $50,000 has been bet on the Oscars, and with a month to go, and close betting in a few categories, we look set to break a few betting records with this years awards. Closer to home, there are several 'reality' shows that have started a new season on Aussie TV lately, and we are covering a few of those, including Dancing with the Stars and My Restaurant Rules. In My Restaurant Rules, Adelaide couple John and Justine Hall have pounced on early favourtism after winning half of the first $100,000 bank, and by all reports they have the restaurant capable of going all the way. While we have taken bets for Adelaide at that price, Brisbane has been best supported at $3.25. Dancing with the Stars has been well received by punters after a successful first series, and following on from last night's first show in this series, we have a very short priced favourite. Nikki Webster (for overseas readers, Nikki was the little girl singing in the opening ceremony of the Sydney Olympics) was a standout last night, and given her experience and popularity, it is no surprise that punters have been lining up to take the $2.50. There are a lot of popular personalities in this series however, and it was obvious from the first series that the voting public aren't always interested in the best dancer. Former Olympian Shane Gould is second pick at $5.50, with Suzie Wilkes and Steven Bradbury the outsiders at $26 and $34 respectively. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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