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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES The Wizard Cup gets under way on Friday night, and from a bookmaking perspective it has been the usual nightmare trying to figure out who is likely to be in/out of each side. Defending champions St Kilda look like they will be near enough to full strength, and have been installed the $3.75 favourite. The Saints attracted the first sizeable bet, $1000, at that quote, but unlike other years there has been a really good spread of money to win the Wizard Cup. Equal second fav's Geelong and Port Adelaide have been easy to lay at $8, and at the bottom end of the market we have seen money for Brisbane ($26) and Richmond at the same quote. Now many may be surprised by the length of the price for Brisbane, but they have a history of under performing in the pre season comps, and they are going to have most of their big names missing this week against Melbourne. A near full strength Tigers line-up under new coach Terry Wallace play Collingwood on Friday night, and with Collingwood missing several 'name' players, Richmond are expected to win. The price for the Tigers has crashed from an opening $2 into $1.80, but we have become used to seeing punters follow the money on Wizard Cup games. As an aside, Richmond belted Collingwood by 40 points in the first round of the regular season last year before they began spiraling down the ladder, so they are capable. Betting on each of the Wizard Cup games will open the day before each match once the squads are known. For some strange reason, Brownlow betting has gone through the roof in the past week. There has been a stack of interest in several players, but there are two 'standouts', Adelaide's Andrew McLeod and Daniel Wells of the Kangaroos. McLeod’s price has tumbled from $34 into $18 in the past fortnight, and we can only put that down to him being in the spotlight with his good mate Lleyton Hewitt. McLeod has been backed to win nearly $75,000 in that period of time, and we can't see any other reason why. The price for Wells has collapsed from $201 a month ago into $41, and he has been backed to win nearly $200,000 with Centrebet alone. Wells was easily the best on ground in the All Stars game in Darwin last week, but the niggling doubt we have is that the Kangaroos might not be capable of winning enough games to keep Wells in the limelight. GOLF Phil Mickelson is renowned for keeping golf events interesting until the final putt has been sunk, however his all the way win at last weeks Pebble Beach Pro-Am had none of the typical dramatics and may signal a more ruthless approach from the world number four. The win was Mickelson's 25th on the PGA tour but ironically his first back to back success after last week’s victory in Phoenix. He held a seven shot lead into the final round and was never seriously threatened, however bogeys on nine and ten did create a bit of a wobble before a birdie on eleven righted the ship. Punters were also on the ball with one $20,000 wager successful at his opening quote of $7, while the good money which arrived for Davis Love proved a little off the mark and emphasis’s his struggle for form. This week we head to California for the Nissan Open where Tiger Woods has the opportunity to claim his second win of the season and reclaim his number one crown. Tiger was installed $3.75 favourite, however a deluge of money, including one $40,000 wager has forced his price into $3.40. Defending champion Mike Weir has the opportunity to join a rare band of players as he attempts to win his third Nissan Open in succession and is running into form at the right time. His closing round five under par 67 at Pebble Beach catapulted him into outright second place on a day where scoring was difficult. The return to form has not been lost on the punting public who have rallied behind the likeable Canadian, including one $2,000 wager at his opening quote of $13, while Charles Howell and Darren Clarke have also been backed to win in excess of $100,000 at $26 and $34 respectively. Woods has never won here, however with two runner-up finishes, an early season win and a field which lacks depth, the signs are that 'Tiger' will be on the prowl come the final day. The Holden New Zealand Open, a combined Australasian/European tour event was held at Gulf harbour Country Club, Auckland last week. An exciting finish saw Sweden's Niclas Fasth finish with a dazzling final round 63 to force a play-off with England's Miles Tunnicliff, and then birdie the second hole to capture his second European tour title. The well supported Peter O'Malley and Brett Rumford were always there abouts but never threatened to win, as another pair of Australians, Richard Green and a promising Simon Nash, both finished well in a tie for third. Fasth has been struggling with his short game in recent times and this win should prove a confidence builder. The tour heads to Kuala Lumpur this week for the Carlsberg Malaysian Open, with defending champion Thongchai Jaidee on the fourth line of betting at $21. European tour top liners, Padraig Harrington and Miguel Angel Jimenez dominate the betting at $6.50 and $8.50 respectively, both backed to win in excess of $100,000 and both with the credentials to win. Swede Thomas Bjorn is next in the betting at $13 from Jaidee and a host of inform and hardened players, Martin Lafeber, Paul McGinley and Niclas Fasth all at $26. If Harrington and Jimenez are not on their game then this tournament can fall to anyone who is. There is also a combined Nationwide/Australasian tour event for the week, the Jacobs Creek Open held at the lovely Royal Adelaide Golf Club. Heading the betting at $16 is Australia's Peter O'Malley and Brett Rumford, both backed to win in excess of $100,000, however trying to line up the form of players on these two tours is a bookmaker's nightmare. Players such as Charley Hoffman ($151), Scott Gump ($151) and Jason Buha ($81) have been backed to win similar amounts and all at huge odds. We have plenty of losers, however there appears to be plenty of chances with the possibility of a result, such as American Joe Ogilvie a couple of years ago. It will certainly give some of Australia's promising players such as Simon Nash an opportunity to compare where they're at on the world stage. RUGBY LEAGUE The start the NRL season is only three weeks away and things are starting to heat up, both in the betting scene and on the paddock. This weeks Charity Shield game between Souths and St George heralds an increase in intensity both within and between clubs. The Bulldogs urgency to sign Sonny Bill Williams to a long term contract and the ensuing scrutiny of their salary cap is indicative of the pressure on clubs and players in the modern game. Back to the betting, The Dragons have been installed $1.50 and 5½ point favourites against the Rabbitohs at Aussie Stadium on Saturday night. Given the fact that they have lost only one of the last ten Shield matches played, then the odds on offer the Dragons appears appealing. Not the case according to punters. All the money has been for the Rabbitohs, with a $4000 wager at the win and a further $10,000 receiving the start being amongst a host of bets laid against them. There are certainly some key players out of the Dragons line up but the squad still boasts names such as Head, Hornby, Cooper, Bailey, Thompson and Timmins to name a few. It’s a game punter who is prepared to place their money where their mouth is on the Rabbitohs at this point of the season. If the Charity Shield betting isn't confusing enough then betting to make the final eight should totally bewilder you. Firstly was the punter from Brisbane, who a week ago placed $100,000 on the New Zealand Warriors to make the eight at $2. So what you may ask? Well this week we had a punter from New Zealand place $100,000 on the Broncos to make the eight at $1.50. You would think they would have compared notes at least! RUGBY UNION Results from last weeks Six Nations matches has made it almost impossible for World Cup Champions England to repeat their Grand Slam year of 2003. England went into this game as $1.65 and 3½ point favourites, before some heavy wagers, including $20,000 at the win and several $10,000 wagers conceding the start, forced that price into $1.57 and the start to 4½. A 17-6 half-time lead to England indicated the punters were on the ball however the boot of Dimitri Yachvilli produced a surprise result as the French prevailed 18-17. Punters may well rue the wayward boot of England's Charlie Hodgson, who only managed to convert one of seven penalty opportunities. France now have a realistic chance of defending their six nations crown, and sets up some fascinating games against Ireland and Wales. In other games, Ireland showed its not just reliant on Brian O'Driscoll when they handed a disappointing Scotland a rugby lesson in Murrayfield, while Wales were too polished for an impotent Italy in Rome. This sets up two key games next week as Ireland host England and France host Wales. No team can afford to lose. Super 12 kicks off next week and betting to win the competition is also heating up. One client is adamant that the Crusaders will be a dominant force again and placed $50,000 on them to make the semis at $1.40 while there has also been good money for the Stormers at $4.25 and the Reds, backed from $5 into $4.25. The win the competition, the Brumbies still hold sway at $3.65 from the Blues at $4 and the Crusaders at $4.10. The Reds have been best backed in the last week, $41 into $26 with the largest wager being $1,000 at $34. Injuries could well decide the winner of what should be an even competition. More on this next week when we have betting for the opening round. CRICKET Twenty20 cricket makes its international debut when both the Kiwis and the Aussies don the figure hugging beige and canary yellow shirts in Auckland today. The New Zealand cricket team’s unofficial supporters, ‘The Beige Brigade’, have issued a challenge to the New Zealand sides to grow moustaches to match the ones that Richard Hadlee and Ewen Chatfield used to sport, but according to our punters that’s about the only challenge there will be! We opened the Aussies at $1.60 and took a $10,000 bet within an hour of opening. And the support doesn’t stop there, further bets of $4000 and $6000 at 1.55 has seen the price steady at $1.52. With the debate raging about one day cricket being too predictable, and the immediate success of Twenty20 at domestic level, it will be very intriguing to see how it transcends onto the international stage. After this, the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy series will be decided with a 5 game series between the Trans-Tasman rivals. Rain ruined the last series leaving it tied at 1-1, this time both teams will be anxious to be the first sole holders. Australia are deserved favourites at $1.35, but whenever Stephen Fleming’s men put on those black uniforms of late they have performed more than admirably, and punters should be wary of taking the Aussies at ‘the shorts’. Victoria’s loss to a near Test strength New South Wales in the ING Cup allowed Tasmania to scrape into the final to be played at the ‘Gabba' on Sunday. Both finalists (Qld & Tas) started the season on fire, but interestingly enough they both have gone off the boil of late losing their last few games. Home ground is always a big advantage, but Queensland has squandered the last 2 finals, both at home. Tassie will be up against it having only won twice at the ‘Gabba' and the last time they won, it was on the back of a solid 94 from a young David Boon, 12 months before his Test debut. We will be offering an extensive range of markets on this game as well as betting at the innings break. BASKETBALL The WNBL preliminary final maintained the standard set by the semi finals the previous week as Sydney overcome an 18 point half-time deficit to book a place in the season finale. With Dandenong hosting Sydney it is a case of same sold out venue and same teams as last year. All that remains is to see if it is the same result. Dandenong have every reason to be confident in their quest to repeat only droppng two games all season but one of their losses was to Sydney at the Stud Rd venue. That alone is enough to give Sydney a glimmer of hope as they were not able to find the key to beating Dandenong at all in five encounters with them last season. The changes in personnel since last season has been minimal for both teams with Sydney adding Trish Fallon and Emma Randall switching from Sydney to Dandenong being the most significant changes. Sydney have come up short against the Rangers twice this season from their three match-ups but this time their squad will! include former Ranger Michelle Musselwhite who missed the previous games through injury. Her impact off the bench for Sydney may hold the key to this game. Dandenong deserve their status as a 4½ point favourite but we will be placing our faith in the visiting team. All the early money has been for the home team with punters again steering clear off the -4½ handicap but very happy to take the $1.46 about Dandenong winning outright. Betting will be up-dated at half-time of this ABC televised match. In the NBL the final eight was sealed by Hunter's dramatic double overtime win over Wollongong whose reign as Championship favourite was short-lived as they gave up the inside running in the quest for top ladder position with losses to West Sydney and Hunter. Although the top eight teams are set their positioning within the eight is far from determined as no team is assured of their actual finishing position. Every remaining game can have an impact on who finishes where so motivation will be high in all these games but none more so than when Wollongong host Sydney on Friday night. Sydney need at least one win from their two games this round to secure top spot and Wollongong will be out to see they don't get it here. Look for Wollongong as a 3½ point favourite to get back on track with a win here which will give West Sydney the chance to deny the Kings the number one play-off seed when they meet on Saturday night. ELECTIONS The Western Australian election will be held this coming Saturday, and while the polls still have the Coalition either ahead of neck and neck with Labor, we see it differently. Labor continue to have a stranglehold on favourtism at $1.50 a place they have occupied for nearly two weeks. While many have said that the proposed canal from the Kimberley to Perth is a fantastic idea, the idea put forward by Coalition leader Colin Barnett hasn't impressed punters who have backed Labor from $2.30 into as short as $1.40. Over $100,000 has been wagered on the WA election, with a lot more expected to come in before people head to the polls on Saturday. At the current prices ($1.50 Labor, $2.40 Coalition) we are seeing money come in both ways, with some of the bigger bets this week including $6000 and $5000 for Labor, and bets of $2000 and two of $1000 for the Opposition. The power black outs in WA this week seem to have had a significant bearing on the policies of both parties this week, and have also been the catalyst for a wave of smaller bets coming through for the Coalition. This will be a really good test for what we have labeled the 'punters poll' as the betting has been completely different to what every political expert, and the polls have said, and that is that the Coalition will win! Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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