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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES The first round of the Wizard Cup was reminiscent of years gone by when four of the winning teams landed decent sized plunges. The only big 'goes' to miss were Geelong, who were comprehensively beaten in atrocious conditions by the Kangaroos in Canberra, and Fremantle, who found the West Coast too good in the local derby. The Fremantle game followed the season's opener between Collingwood and Richmond (the Tigers were up to their old tricks. losing from an 'unloseable' position), and the Dockers were backed from an opening $2 into $1.65 by kickoff. We don’t let punters on for big amounts pre-season, but one Victorian client had four separate bets on Fremantle, investing a total of just under $30,000. The Dockers were also backed to win big money for the title at $11. Saturday was a black day as two of the winners firmed to less than half of their opening quotes. The Western Bulldogs came from $1.65 into $1.33 before an unimpressive 20 point win over Sydney, who were missing most of their stars. Although treading warily on this one, we didn't escape lightly as nearly $35,000 worth of bets came from a group of Sydney punters early Saturday at around the $1.50 mark. There was some respite in the next game, even though it was won by the hot favourites, St Kilda. Most of the betting on this game was for St Kilda to beat a 33½ handicap (including one bet of $7500), but it took the entire game for the Saints to shake of the Hawks before they went on to win by 9 points. An isolated $1.60 was given in some parts of the country for Melbourne to beat Brisbane, which seemed extremely generous once the squads were named. Melbourne produced the best side they could, while Brisbane, who are never wound up for pre season games, had many big names out. That saw Melbourne settle at $1.47, and surprisingly we did see some interest in Brisbane, but that completely dried up once Jason Akermanis was also ruled out. Melbourne were $1.33 at kick off, and were never troubled in a 45 point victory. The wet weather in Canberra turned many people off, but apart from two $5000 bets on the Kangaroos with 9½ points start, most money was for Geelong, who firmed from $1.65 into $1.55. Geelong had terrific form in similar conditions last year, but were never really travelling well enough to win. Essendon rested most of their 'guns' against Carlton, which saw the price for the Blues come crashing in from $1.85 to $1.60. It was pretty common knowledge that Essendon would be light on, but they still had a reasonable side on paper. Luckily, punters kept away from this game, but they were more than compensated when Port Adelaide were backed from $1.65 into $1.45 before edging out Adelaide in another derby by 15 points. The betting might appear as though it was one sided, and although we did lose, there was plenty of support for the Crows, including two $5000 bets for them with 9½ points start. The second round should be a bit easier to do the form on now that teams have let their intentions be known. St Kilda are hot favourites in the first match against the Bulldogs, and although there haven't been too many takers at the $1.20 for a St Kilda win, we have taken bets of $2500 and $2000 fro them to cover the handicap of 26½ points. Melbourne are $1.50 to beat Carlton on Saturday afternoon at Telstra Dome, while West Coast, even though they are likely to be missing Ben Cousins, will go in as favourites against Collingwood in Darwin on Saturday night. The final game for the weekend will be at Telstra on Sunday, where Port Adelaide will be heavy favourites to beat the Kangaroos. RUGBY LEAGUE The antics of several Newcastle Knights players have unfortunately dominated the headlines this week, and those headlines sparked a bit of activity for the Knights to win the wooden spoon in 2005. The $34 available for Newcastle to run last was snapped up on Monday by a few small punters, then we accepted a bet of $1000 at the same quote before bringing them in to $21. There has been plenty of interest in the wooden spoon as Canberra are now in to $6.50, having been backed for close to $100,000, and Wests had attracted two bets of $2000 at $5.50 before an ordinary performance at the weekend. Souths win in the Charity Shield, their first in six years, has seen the Rabbitohs drift in spoon betting, but they remain fav's at $2.25. The Charity Shield didn't break any betting records, but the majority of those who did bet on the game came away smiling. Souths are a popular side each year in the early part of the season, and the Charity Shield isn't any different. The Rabbitohs attracted some support at $2.60, and it became obvious that perhaps St George Illawarra weren't completely ready for a big showing. Luckily we took the knife to the price of Souths a few times without seeing much money , but there were a couple of healthy bets landed at the shorter quote, including $4000 to win at $2.30, and three bets of $5000 with 4½ points start. On the premiership front, we continue to see support for New Zealand with another bet of $3000 at $21 forcing the price down to $19. In the past week we have also laid Brisbane to lose another $50,000 at $12 (now $10), Parramatta to lose $50,000 at $16 (now $15), and the Cowboys to lose $30,000, now into $11 after a solid trial win. We still can't find any admirers for the Bulldogs at $3.75, surely they must have some fans out there somewhere? GOLF Adam Scott won his first PGA event of the season when he defeated Chad Campbell on the first hole of sudden death play-off. The play-off came shortly after the final two holes were cancelled because of rain which saturated Riviera Country Club and reduced the tournament to 36 holes for the first time in nine years. The win boosts Scott up to seventh in the World rankings, catapults Davis Love out of the top ten for the first time since 1997, and leaves Vijay Singh as number one as Tiger Woods failed to finish in the top four. And although Scott only received 75% of ranking points and his name is not officially entered into the record books, he still receives 100% of the prize money and the trophy to boot, which is recognition of the win in anyone's language. Of the players backed, Woods started well with a four under 67, however his second round score could not match it with the likes of Scott and Campbell, while Darren Clarke, backed to win in excess of $150,000 at $34, was a little unlucky not to make it to the play-off along with Englishman Brian Davis. This week the first of the WGC events takes place as Tiger Woods attempts to win his third Accenture Match Play title in succession. Last year he defeated Davis Love 3&2 and has been installed as $4.50 favourite on the strength of some strong showings in recent weeks. Phil Mickelson is second pick at $8.50 ahead of World number one Vijay Singh at $9, while 2001 winner, Darren Clarke has been backed to win in excess of $150,000 at his opening quote of $21, Also well supported has been Woods, who carries one $40,000 wager at his opening quote, while Padraig Harrington and Lee Westwood have been backed to win similar amounts at $34 and $51 respectively. Also on this week is the Chrysler Classic of Tuscon where defending champion Heath Slocum has been rated a $41 chance behind inform players Aaron Obelholser and Kevin Sutherland, both at $17. Best backed has been namesakes, Joe Ogilvie at $31 and Geoff Ogilvy at $34, both to win $100,000, in an event where literally anyone can win. As most of the top-line players are in California for the Accenture Matchplay this event is void of big names and historically produces a maiden winner or a result at the very worse. This week should prove little different. RUGBY UNION Rugby betting hots up this week as the first round of Super 12 kicks off. Injuries and indifferent trial form has produced some odd betting trends in recent weeks in regard to who will win the title, with the Reds firming into $17 on the back of some solid support, now back out to $26 with major injury concerns. Games kick off this week with the Highlanders hosting the Blues at the House of Pain on Friday night. Betting has the Blues favourites at $1.42 and conceding 6½ points, while the Highlanders have had admirers at $2.85. The Blues without Howlett and a suspect Spencer look vulnerable. The second game on Friday sees the unpredictable Waratahs host last year’s semi finalist, the Chiefs. The 'Tahs' are firm favourites at $1.30 and conceding 10½ points while the Chiefs have had some firm support at $3.50. With an injury cloud over Matt Rogers and a disappointing history, punters have not been keen to take the shorts the home team. On Saturday the Stormers host the Sharks in a local derby in Capetown. The Stormers are $1.37 favourites and concede 8½ points, with the Sharks, without Venter and Smits, at $3.10. This game has attracted little business at this stage, however the Sharks have a habit of being competitive when you least expect it, and the Stormers are dodgy at the best of times. A result here would also not surprise. This game is followed by the Grand Final replay between the Brumbies and the Crusaders in Canberra. The Brumbies are $1.52 and must concede 5½ points while the Crusaders have been solid, including one $10,000 wager at the opening quote of $2.55. The betting on this game is starting to heat up with money now coming for the locals, including $5,000 conceding the start. Also on Saturday night, the Reds host the Hurricanes, with the Reds $1.85, while the Hurricanes are into $1.95 from $2 on the back of some good size wagers, including $10,000 from a New Zealand client. The final game in a top class fixture may prove to be a bit of a fizzer from a betting perspective, as last years wooden spooners, the Cats, host the Bulls in Johannesburg. This match is a bit of a derby, so money has come for the outsiders as the Cats have firmed form $2.85 into $2.70 with the start firming from 7½ into 6½, including two $5,000 wagers. The Bulls may be easy in the betting, drifting from $1.40 out to $1.45, however their trial form has been impressive, and we expect money for them as soon as punters awake from the dream they must obviously be having. RACING The Blue Diamond Stakes will be held at Caulfield on Saturday, and it does appear one of the most open Blue Diamonds ever. Current favourite is boom youngster Opportunity, but punters have shunned the Tony Vasil trained 2yo after she drew out in barrier 11. The price for Opportunity has drifted to $4.25, with support coming for second pick Perfectly Ready at $4.25, as well as The Rhine ($2000 each way at $5.50), a John Hawkes trained galloper who ran on well when second to Perfectly Ready at Caulfield a fortnight ago. Perfectly Ready ($10) and The Rhine ($13) are also well up our betting charts to win the Golden Slipper. The Slipper looks very thin this year, with only four or five main chances in our opinion. That is a view shared by punters as well as there hasn't been the usual spread of money amongst 20-30 horses. Snitzel is the current co favourite at $4.50 with Mnemosyne. Snitzel's price will shorten significantly if he wins Saturday Night's Skyline Stakes as expected. Mnemosyne will improve immensely on her first up defeat, and for that reason alone she hasn't drifted too much in the betting. Flying Pegasus was impressive in beating Mnemosyne in the Kindergarten, and looks an ideal Slipper type. The doubt with The Rhine is that in his Melbourne appearances it appears as though he may be better suited to 1400 metres. Betting is also available on the Doncaster Handicap, and although the race is still a month away, it does look like being a crackerjack field. Lotteria is the current fav at $6.50, and may well be over the odds, She is a star in the making, and will be trimmed up significantly if a confirmed starter. Stablemate Grand Armee is on the next line of betting at $7.50, and similar to Lotteria, his price will be cut if a confirmed runner. Desert War shares the next line of betting with Alinghi at $8, which means that Gai Waterhouse has three of the first four in the betting. Desert War ran a 'bottler' first up, and he already has a feature mile win to his credit. Alinghi is an interesting runner, but we think she may struggle at the mile against top-liners. For those wanting to back one at a bit of odds, Lad of the Manor may be worth an each way bet at around the $15 mark. He has an impressive strike rate, and his run in the Orr Stakes was full of merit. CRICKET The Australian machine just keeps on rolling along collecting two wins from two attempts in New Zealand. After game one it looked as though the Kiwi’s were going to be the team that would ‘give it’ to the Aussies, pushing them all the way. This created some good interest in the second game with bets coming for both sides. The $2.75 offered for New Zealand was snapped up by a stream of clients, and one Sydney punter placed $30,000. Conversely there was steady support for Australia with several bets of $5000 at the $1.47. With Gilchrist gone early, and Hayden riding his luck, it looked as though the New Zealand backers would see some reward. However this is the Australian team, and it didn’t take long for Hayden to settle, and although the Kiwi’s looked sharp in the field, and never gave the Aussies posted 314. Jeff Wilson may have preferred to be at the bottom of a ruck after conceding 57 off only 6 overs in his international comeback. Chasing 214 is hard enough against the Australian attack, and as it so often happens when chasing large totals, the Kiwi’s were soon 4-49, and eventually lost by 106 runs. Despite this, don’t write the Kiwi’s off. They have shown in every game that they have played against the Aussies that they won’t die wondering. Game 3 commences on Saturday and the all it needs is for one bowler to support Daniel Vettori, and one of the top 4 batsmen to score, and Australia will be under pressure, and that is something they are not used to. We have already taken two bets of $10,000 for the Aussies at $1.42, so they will start a short quote again. Don’t forget, Centrebet will be betting ‘live’ throughout the match. The Pura Cup is starting to reach the vital stages of the season with 4 teams all still a chance for the final. A top of the table clash in Perth between the Warriors and New South Wales will go a long way in shaping who finishes were. With 3 rounds left, any outright wins are almost worth double. Queensland will be trying to get their season back on track, as they appear to have got the ‘post-Christmas wobbles’, a tag they endured during the late 80’s. They take on a Darren Lehmann led South Australia, and the Redbacks look the value here at $2.60. Victoria may have left their run too late, and will need 6 points from the game against Tassie to have any chance of keeping up with the others. ELECTIONS The Western Australian State election was always going to be a good betting contest, but even we have been surprised by the level of interest. There is still two days to go before people head off to the polls, but already the hold on the WA election has passed through the $250,000 barrier, and we expect a lot more to be added to that total as many prefer to wait until the day before the election to bet. In the past week, the power outages in WA have been a key issue for the Labor Party, but that didn't appear to be too detrimental to their chances of being returned to power as we took some massive bets for them. The largest of these, and the biggest ever state election bet, was $100,000 taken late last week at $1.45. The intriguing thing about that bet was that it came from Sydney based punter, and that in the days following, we took three bets of $5000, and two of $2000 fro the Coalition at $2.80. All of those bets came from Perth, which would be a fair indication of how the WA public saw things, but this week, we have seen good solid betting both ways, mostly from WA. Two bets of $10,000, and another of $5000 have seen Labor hold their place in the betting at $1.38, but there has been another bet of $5000, and dozens of smaller bets, for the Coalition at $2.80. This has been a really closely fought election, but thanks to that bet of $100,000, we will be hoping that the Coalition can cause an upset. That bet has also distorted the clear picture of what punters actually think as we have been 'balancing the books', but it does look as though there is enough interest in Labor, even at the $1.38, to say that they will probably be returned to power. The British General Election is still a few months away, but one Aussie thinks that Tony Blair will be returned. Two weeks ago he placed $30,000 at $1.15 on the Labour Party winning the election. On the other side of the coin, we can report that there has been a spattering of interest in the Conservative's at $5.50, with all of those bets coming from England. ENTERTAINMENT For different reasons, punters were unable to bet on Dancing With The Stars and My Restaurant Rules last week. DWTS was embroiled in controversy as a campaign to have favourite Nikki Webster kicked off the show gained momentum, and MRR was closed as the show took a bizarre twist with the impending arrival of a celebrity couple. That will make a huge difference if they are allowed to run one of the restaurants, so that will remain closed until after tonight's (Thursday) show when all will be explained. The Nikki Webster saga has been the talking point around the country for well over a week now, and prior to switching off the event late last week, there had been solid backing for Tom Williams and Holly Brisley. In fact, we took more for 'bolter' Derryn Hinch in two days of betting than for little Nikki, but to be realistic, Derryn has got no hope! After this weeks show, and with opinions still divided on whether Nikki should be there or not, Tom Williams has taken over as favourite at $2.50, and we have taken nearly $2000 for him at that price. There is little doubt that Nikki Webster is the best dancer, and when all this talk dies down, we maintain she will still be hard to beat, so have only eased her to $3. Holly Brisley is the big mover, now into $3.50. The 'blonde bombshell' really can move well on the dance floor, and was backed to win close to $5000 last week when everyone seemed to have it 'in' for Nikki Webster. Of the others, Shane Gould ($8) has proven the most popular with punters, and we can probably expect the former Olympian to be around for a few more weeks. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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