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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE Craig Gower's woes and the ongoing saga at Souths have kept league in the news over the past weeks. Both have had an affect on betting. When word got out that Gower might be on the move, Penrith were backed at 13.00 to win the wooden spoon. After that story was hosed down it resurfaced again and we cut Penrith in to 8.00 to run last. On the back of all of the innuendo, the big move has been for the Melbourne Storm. The rumour mill that linked Gower with the Storm, and an impressive trial win at the weekend sent the previously unwanted Melbournians from 21.00 into 15.00. While it can be dangerous to read too much into trial form, punters have latched onto the boys from the south. Also showing excellent trial form were the Bronco's who thumped North Queensland. We cut them to 10.00 and still close to $1500 was placed on Brisbane this week. An early push for the Bulldogs (two bets of $2000 at 10.00) dried up after it was announced this week that Sonny Bill Williams has more injury problems and will be out for up to 12 weeks at the start of the season. Meanwhile at Souths things are getting messy in the battle to see who runs the club. The Russell Crowe Consortium is gaining momentum, but they will still have to get 75% of the vote when their proposal to take ownership of the club goes to members. The faithful have countered with a proposal of their own, so instability will continue to be the order of the day at Redfern. Some of our punters feel the ongoing issue must affect the players and have jumped in and backed the Rabbitohs to win the wooden spoon. Bets of $3000 and $2500 were taken at 4.00, then another $2000 at 3.50. Despite the feelings of deja vu Souths are only second favourites, behind Canberra, to the dreaded spoon. The Raiders did beat New Zealand in a trial match at North Harbour at the weekend, but with the word out that the Kiwi's used the match to blood young players and test combinations, no one is reading much into the Raiders win. AUSTRALIAN RULES With the NAB Cup - AFL pre-season - getting under way in around ten days, betting on the outcome of the Cup competition will open on Monday, 20 February. The knockout competition has proven to be a betting nightmare, over the years, as most sides approach it with differing motivation. As it is also pointless opening without some knowledge of the teams, betting for each match will open the day prior to play following the announcement of squads. Looking through the draw, we feel the sides to beat are the West Coast, the Bulldogs and Fremantle. The AFL Coleman Medal market is going along nicely despite the fact it is difficult to find a winner these days. Gone are the years when full forwards kicked 100 goals. Injuries, the Tribunal, tagging and some creative coaching have put an end to the days of the target man. Fraser Gehrig is our favourite (4.00) ahead of Barry Hall (5.00) and Matty Lloyd (5.00). The ever-reliable Lloyd recently attracted a bet of $800 each way (pay 1,2 or 3), while the Tiger's enigmatic front man, Matthew Richardson (13.00), has been popular with punters, as has Port's Warren Tredrea (15.00). Now that he appears to have mended his ways, we are tipping Jonathan Brown to have a big year in front of goal. Brownie looks good value at the 34.00 on offer at some outlets. While on the Lions, two $500 bets have been placed on Brisbane to run last at 51.00. Are guess is they are misguided as Brisbane have a good draw early in the season and only need to ride out a horrific injury toll to (again) be a force in 2006. CRICKET Australia came back from the brink of defeat to win the One Day Series against Sri Lanka, and didn't we pay the penalty for assuming they were beaten. Despite losing the first match, close to $30,000 was placed on Australia to win the series at 1.57 and 1.55. Unfortunately for us the Aussies put a nail in our coffin with two commanding victories. Australia were well backed before the start of the third final. The big bet was $45,000 at 1.30 with support for Australia continuing throughout the match as bets of $25,000 and $20,000 came in from India late in the first innings. It took about five minutes of the Australian run chase for us to work out we were in deep trouble. Once we had we just sat back and enjoyed Gilchrist's innings. One thing that did go our way was the series batting and bowling results. Quiet achiever Nathan Bracken was the series leading wicket taker. Bracken blew out to 34.00 when Brett Lee seemed was firing, but Lee failed to get a wicket in the last match, meaning Bracken's three edged him past Muralitharan by one. With only the two domestic competition
finales left to complete another Aussie summer of cricket, the national
side head to South Africa next week. Betting for both the Test and
one-day series will open this Friday. We are tipping rapid improvement
from the Proteas. Punters were on the ball again this week with Mike Weir (41.00) backed to win over $50,000 at the Pebble Beach National Beach Pro Am. Wier finished second to consistent Aaron Obelholser who was also well supported at 34.00. Others well backed at Pebble Beach were defending champion Phil Mickelson (6.50), Luke Donald (21.00) and Tim Clark (26.00) who all threatened at some stage of the tournament. The Tour stays in California this week when the Riviera Country Club hosts the Nissan Open. In a weather-shortened event, Australian Adam Scott was successful last year. This time around the Aussie number one should find the going tougher as he battles favourite Tiger Woods (3.75) and world number five Ernie Els (8.00). Consistent Jim Furyk (21.00) is also in the mix ahead of Scott, Weir and Abu Dhabi winner Chris DiMarco, all at 26.00, and a host of inform players, including Chad Campbell, Luke Donald and Stuart Appleby, all at 29.00. Of the outsiders Jay Haas (151.00), Jose Maria Olazabal (67.00), Stewart Cink (67.00) and Rory Sabbatini (41.00) have all been backed to win in excess of $40,000. Surprisingly the Tiger has attracted little interest. A somewhat strange scenario for a player who has dominated the two tournaments he has competed in this year. The other key event last week was the Johnnie Walker Classic, a combined European and Australasian Tour event. South African Retief Goosen (7.00) was installed favourite ahead of defending champion Adam Scott (13.00), 2000 winner Michael Campbell (13.00) and recent Triple Crown champ, Robert Allenby (15.00). Best backed were Campbell, Nick O'Hern (17.00), Scott and PGA Tour veteran K.J Choi, who each would've paid out in excess of $50,000. Thankfully for us, there was a
fairytale ending with little known American Kevin Stadler (126.00), son
of former Masters Champion Craig Stadler, dropping an 72nd-hole tap in
eagle for a two shot victory of O'Hern. WNBL: With half of the Commonwealth Games team lining up this game showcases some of the best talent in Australian basketball, but one name stands out above the rest; Lauren Jackson. Consider her fourth quarter efforts in Canberra's two previous finals; v. Bulleen: Jackson 11 points, Bulleen
9 If Lauren is able to dominate to this extent again it makes Dandenong's task that much harder, but the game will be far from a one-woman show. Jenny Whittle has also troubled Dandenong this season which makes the defensive assignment for the Ranger bigs that much harder. On the flipside the Dandenong point guard combination of Richards and McLeod have outplayed their Canberra counterparts in 2006 and we feel this will give the Rangers the edge to claim their third consecutive championship. Accordingly, the Capitals opened a 2.5-point outsider with a win quote of 2.15 and attracted all the early money. Live free-to-air coverage of this game
in Australia means half-time price updates. NBA: The standout in the East is the Detroit Pistons (41-9) who have hardly put a foot wrong so far. After opening at 13.00 to win the title the Pistons have steadily firmed as the talented group embraced new coach Flip Saunders' philosophies and started to build their impressive record. They are now a solid 2.50 favourite to go one step better than last season. Miami are the main threat to their supremacy in the East, but this group of big names is yet to find the consistency that Pat Riley thought he could produce when he took over the reins earlier in the season. The Western Conference appears to have two certain contenders and a definite maybe. Dallas and San Antonio have been neck and neck all season and whichever one of them claims the Southwest Division will have the upper hand in the run to the title. We think that team will be Dallas. The 'maybe' in the West is Phoenix (33-17). Without Amare Stoudamire in their line-up they have exceeded the expectations of most to lead the Pacific Division. With Stoudamire set to return next month they become a major contender if he can return at the top of his game. Outside the top five you can get 34.00 or better on an end of season surprise. DANCING WITH THE STARS The publicity surrounding the next series of Dancing with the Stars has been sensational with interest carrying over into the betting arena. Not one dance step has been shown, yet well over $10,000 has already been invested! With every one of the ten celebrities attracting their share of support, it has been interesting watching as the bets role in. Jennifer Hawkins (3.25) has been popular with male punters and those from her home town of Newcastle. Simone Warne has been most popular with our female clients and we have taken two $500 bets for Kostya Tszyu (13.00) from regular boxing clients. Hawkins may be favourite, but Human Nature's Toby Allen remains the best backed and he has firmed from 11.00 into 6.00. Luke Ricketson is the other firmer this week, shortening from 13.00 into 11.00. Not surprisingly all bar one of the wagers on the former rugby league pin-up have come from Sydney-based females. Ricko also has a fan in the form of league commentator Darryl Brohman. The big guy dumped some cash on Ricketson this week, declaring him a "good thing" and commenting that he was aware of how well popular, sexy men rate with female television watchers. Dream on Darryl! RUGBY UNION The Super 14 season got off to a great start with some interesting results and some tight games. At the end of round one the bookmakers hold a slight lead. The season opening blockbuster in Auckland had the Blues (1.55) favourites conceding 4½ points and the home team looked a sure thing at the break when leading 16-3. The Hurricanes intimidating backline had other ideas. In rainy conditions they turned the match on its head and Wellington went home deserved 37-19 winners. The win was so impressive many are now reassessing the Super 14 winner market as the black and yellows are now serious contenders. Next up the Brumbies proved too experienced for new franchise Western Force prevailing 25-10 in the West. Although most expected a Brumbies win, there was good money for the home side at +8½ points meaning the 15-point margin suited us nicely. Also seeing action for the first time on Friday were the Cheetahs who hosted arch rival the Bulls in Bloemfontein. This proved to be one of the surprise betting games of the round with good money for the Cheetahs (2.65) at +6½ points. There were also plenty who thought the Bulls would be able to avenge their Curry Cup defeat and use their Super 14 experience to advantage. They did just that sealing proceedings with a late penalty and intercept try after full time. The Saturday games also provided varied results with tournament favourites, the Crusaders, showing their class with a clinical 38-15 demolition of the Highlanders. Punters were keen to take the 1.25 and -11½ points on offer with significant bets including a $10,000 wager from one of our New Zealand clients. Australian arch rivals, the Reds and Waratahs met in Queensland where the Tahs (1.40) started favourites, conceding 7½ points before easing into 1.35 on the strength of heavy support, including two separate 10,000 wagers from a couple of local punters. The money at the handicap was more evenly spread, so the 16-12 score line to the Waratahs was not exactly what we were after. Elsewhere the Stormers prove too good for the Cats and the Sharks upset the Chiefs. Centrebet had a good result on both games as the Cats (1.90) were well supported, including a $10,000 wager from a South African client just prior to kick off. Many New Zealand clients were happy to concede the 3½ points on the Sharks game, including a $10,000 wager conceding 5½ at 2.10. Thankfully for us Percy Montgomerie had his kicking boot on. This week provides an interesting round of matches with most experts still deliberating over the outcome of five of the seven games. The Hurricanes, 1.08 into 1.06, are white-hot favourites with the handicap, recently shifted from -18½ into -20½, attracting two separate $10,000 wagers from New Zealand. The other clear favourites are the Crusaders (1.18 and conceding 12½ points) who travel to QLD (4.85). The opening salvo was 5,000 on the Crusaders conceding the start and that has now firmed into 1.85. The second round of Six Nations saw some interesting scenes in Paris, as the Irish sung and the French were booed, despite the scoreboard reading in favour of hosts. With snow falling in Paris the Irish came in for solid support through most of our betting options. We struck a couple of decent bets, $20,000 and $15,000 at -13.5, on the handicap with half-time betting also popular ($12,000 @ $1.90) written on France to win by eight or more. Elsewhere the Italians threw a scare into the English taking a one-point deficit into the main break. The Italians eventually lost by 15, but many of their supporters recorded a good victory with a number of punters predicting the improvement in the Azzuri. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or
centrebet@centrebet.com
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