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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
CRICKET
Apart from one bet of $4000, the next biggest bet on Australia winning the one day series (1.55) has been $200, while there have been several willing to take the 2.30 for South Africa. The Test series is even quieter with biggest bet for the Aussies at 1.80 being $150. There has been a sprinkling of interest in South Africa at 3.25 and a bet of $800 on a drawn series at 4.25 but as this series is after the one-day games, perhaps the betting public are waiting to see if the Proteas can reproduce some form. Before both of those series get under way, there will be a 20/20 match played at Johannesburg. Australia are 1.60 to win that game with South Africa at 2.25, but the nature of these shortened matches normally means that bigger betting cricket followers tend to keep away. Locally, the ING Cup will be decided on Sunday with South Australia hosting the final. New South Wales let a home final slip from their grasp last weekend and that has seen them go from warm 1.60 favourites to unwanted underdogs at 2.60. Michael Clarke was the only shining light for the Blues last week and he is in South Africa so the South Australians have been easy to sell. Bets of $3000 and $2500 were taken at 1.50 and there is still a constant stream of support at 1.48, while less than $100 has been placed on NSW. Betting will be updated during the
innings break on this match and most of the normal one-day exotics
reserved for big International matches will also be available. AUSTRALIAN RULES
This year the pre-season comp is called the NAB Cup and on paper it looks a real raffle, so much so that the favourites are at 7.50. These comps have been difficult to price over the years as some teams have historically treated them seriously and others haven't. Already this year we have had Sydney coach Paul Roos come out and say that most of his big names will be missing this week, that is why the Swans are 34.00. Strangely, the Western Bulldogs have been the best backed side to date, coming in from 13 to 7.50 and even that is being taken. They play Melbourne in Darwin this week, which has been a happy hunting ground for the Bulldogs in the past. Betting on the matches of the NAB Cup will open the day prior to each match being played. There are some pretty obvious reasons for that as displayed by betting fluctuations on pre-season games in the past. As soon as squads are named and the coaches give some guide as to who is likely to be rested, the betting will open. Ben Cousins has gone for a big drift in
Brownlow Medal betting after he was stripped of the West Coast captaincy
this week. We had Cousins, who won the Brownlow last year, at 11.00, but
he has blown out to 17.00. RUGBY LEAGUE
The Warriors are in big trouble as they have a 'prior' for a similar offence and the NRL have said that they will come down hard on them. Reading between the lines that means stripping of points so we have had to take the step of suspending betting on all 'futures' options where the Warriors play a major role. They were 10.00 to win the wooden spoon before all of this but if they lose any points at all, they will no doubt also lose motivation and that would be enough to see them into favourites. If they were to lose multiple points then wooden spoon betting probably would not surface again this year. The Charity Shield was won by Souths for the second year in a row but the Rabbitohs appeared to be in big trouble when they trailed the Dragons 12-0 at half-time. It wasn't looking good for us either as all the late money on the match had been for St George-Illawarra, including a bet of $16,000 to win at 1.48 and three $5000 wagers for the Dragons to cover a spread of 6½ points. The weekend trial matches didn't reveal much apart from the exit of another two coaches at the end of this season. That brings the total of coaches who will either swap clubs or leave the competition at year’s end to four. One can only wonder how that will affect these clubs this season and surely that makes all of those clubs risky betting propositions as far as title betting goes? The Roosters looked pretty good in their trial and we have begun to see small interest in them at 7.00 to win the comp. We have blown the Bulldogs out to 13.00 since the news got out that Sonny Bill Williams had injured his knee again and we have only taken one bet of $200 for the Bulldogs since the price change. Premiership doubles are in vogue at the moment and why not? This is the time to get in and secure the big odds before the form becomes too exposed. Following on from last year when a client backed the Swans/Wests Tigers double with us to win a shade over a million dollars we have seen all the roughie combinations backed to win similar amounts. It is worth pointing out that while the
Tigers were 150/1 bolters before season got under way the Sydney Swans
were well in commission. A lot of the doubles we have layed for massive
amounts this year feature Carlton and Hawthorn in the AFL and Souths and
Canberra in the NRL. Looks like many think it will be another year of
upsets. BASKETBALL
While we agree that the Tigers are going to be mighty hard to beat, the Kings have to be favourites. The best of five play-off series begins on Friday night in Sydney, and because they have the home court advantage, we had no option but to install the Kings as 1.70 to take the series. Punters have been very wary to date with the largest bet being $1200 at that quote. The Kings have been favourites all season to make it four titles in a row and when betting opened, the Melbourne Tigers were one of the outsiders at 10.00. There are a few who were impressed by what they saw of the Tigers throughout the season, with two Victorians placing big wagers on them. One has had $4000 at 4.50 while another chimed in just before the finals series began with a bet of $3000 at 3.00. The betting on the first game has the
Kings favourites at 1.52 or conceding a 4 point-start and as we have
become accustomed to seeing in the past, the bulk of the business is on
the home side. We just hope that both Goorjian and Smith are right with
their assessment of the Tigers. DANCING WITH THE STARS
Former Miss Universe, Jennifer Hawkins went into show one as our 3.00 favourite but there had been huge support for Simone Warne and Toby Allen. While Jen put up a terrific showing and still holds sway at the head of betting at 3.00, it was Toby who now looms as the one to beat. He was very good and clearly is very popular with the Australian public. He re-opened at 3.25 after the first show but has now joined Hawkins at the top of the betting charts. Simone Warne wasn't as fortunate, struggling a little and copping some criticism from the judges. Simone's odds have blown like the north wind, out to 51.00 after being third elect at 6.00. Simone has also replaced Kate Langbroek as the first to go at 3.00, although the off air spat between Kate and judge Todd McKenney has escalated following Tuesday's showdown between the pair. Kate is a solid 3.25 chance to be first to go and if it isn't next week, it could be soon after. Molly Meldrum showed he is a better pop
commentator than a dancer but he’s so popular, it wouldn't be beyond the
realms of possibility that he could be around for a few more weeks. We
also have some insight into what the public are thinking as not one
single bet has been placed on Molly to be evicted next week, even though
he is the third favourite at 4.50. ELECTIONS
Some suggested that maybe Lennon would not only lose the upcoming Tasmanian election but also his seat. We have framed a market on how many of the 25 seats Lennon's Labor Party would win with the options being 'less than 13' and '13 and over'. Our election punters who have jumped in early contradict what the media is saying about Lennon as the '13 and over' has attracted nearly $2500 in small bets and has been cut from 9.00 to 5.00. As yet there hasn't been any sign of our bigger election clients perhaps they are waiting to see how his popularity grows (or wavers) over the upcoming weeks. South Australia have also called an election and the Mike Rann led Labor Party is so certain to regain power that we have only offered a market on whether or not they gain a majority and even that is short. Punters can take 1.03 that Rann will win 24 or more of the 47 seats available and while we haven't had anyone step in and take the short odds yet, there also haven't been any takers for Labor not to gain a majority. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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