This was
the column I was going to send out last week but the debate about the
controversial calls that weekend was just too good to pass up. In
other words, sorry for the delay.
This
past college football season was a great one for books. There is often
a lot of talk that betting on college football is easier to win at
than betting on the NFL and until this year our numbers supported that
theory. This past college football season was our best ever and the
NFL season was really only average. Of the 16 weeks that comprise the
regular season, the House came out ahead 13 times and two of the
losing weeks were the first and last with much lighter handle than all
those in between. Incredibly, we did not have a losing week from
August 31st (Week #2) until November 16th (Week #13) and we promptly
followed that one mid-season loss with the best two weeks we have ever
had.
Overall, we saw our handle jump 233% and our profits jump 276%. Good
numbers by any standard and we were very pleased as it exceeded all of
our budgets and personal expectations. The big difference this year
was totals. Over the past few seasons, we had been holding 1-2% on
college football totals but this past year we held an incredible 6.3%.
Moneylines also experienced a turnaround. We actually lost money on
moneylines in 2001 but managed to get them into the win column in
2002. Pointspread percentage also improved, although far less
dramatically than the other two line types. Parlay and teaser
percentages were virtually unchanged despite the higher hold
percentages on straight plays and I think that is largely due to
bettors becoming more sophisticated and playing 2, 3 and 4-team
exotics rather than shooting for big paydays with 10-team teasers and
12-team parlays.
As I
mentioned, the best weeks were Weeks 14 and 15. Week 14 (Nov 23rd) saw
players have a tough afternoon with TCU, Rutgers, Washington State and
Northern Illinois not covering and followed it all up by chasing
losses heavily on Hawaii only to see them barely edge out Cincinnati
and not cover. Week 15 (Nov 30th) was similar with the players
suffering afternoon losses on TCU, Pitt and Kentucky before chasing
heavily on Notre Dame at USC. Carson Palmer took over that game, won
the Heisman and handed us our biggest winning day in college football
ever. The worst week was Week 13 (which probably explains why Week 14
and Week 15 were good as players had some extra money to put into
play). Bettors cashed in big with Alabama, Iowa, Colorado, Boston
College, Maryland and Colorado State. Our best game of the regular
season was the previously mentioned USC win over Notre Dame in Week 15
and our worst game would have been either the Alabama win over LSU in
Week 13 or the Washington State win over UCLA on December 7th.
The
Bowl season was very good as well, especially over the last week. In
previous columns, I covered the early Bowl games but let me recap the
games from New Year’s Eve on.
The
31st got off to a good start with Boise State blowing out Iowa State
in the Humanitarian Bowl 34-16. We took a lot of Cyclones action,
especially on the moneyline, but it was never really close. Next up
was the Sun Bowl and bettors had their revenge taking Purdue heavy. It
looked good for the book with the Huskies’ early 17-0 lead but they
looked bad after that as Purdue rallied to win 34-24. Players also had
moderate success with TCU’s win over Colorado State in the Liberty
Bowl as a 3-point dog. This was one of the few bowl games where the
public was betting the Under and the 17-3 final score paid out for
them there. In the Silicon Valley Classic, bettors were mildly
favoring favorite Georgia Tech so their outright loss to Fresno State
30-21 was good for the House. Again, players evened things up with
Maryland over Tennessee 30-3 in a Pick’em affair at the Sun Bowl. The
last game of 2002, the San Francisco Bowl, was ideal for the book
however. We had heavy action on Virginia Tech –11.5 and moderate
action on Air Force on the moneyline looking for the upset. This was
expected to be a high-scoring affair and bettors flocked to the Over,
moving the number from 54 to 57. Final score was 20-13 for the Hokies
so the House won all 3 ways and our Book Managers slept a little
better that night (it may have been the champagne at midnight as well,
but we’ll never really know).
New
Year’s Day saw big handle up and down the board except for the Cotton
Bowl, which was a little surprising. Perhaps 11am is too early, maybe
the line (Texas –10.5 over LSU) was just one of those lines that
nobody liked or most likely, everybody was going to watch the Outback
Bowl that was on at the same time. For whatever reason, there was
limited action on the game and it was one of just a couple of Bowl
games this year where the House didn’t care what the score was as it
was balanced all the way around. In fact, I couldn’t even remember who
won until I looked it up today (Texas 35-20). This wasn’t the case in
the Outback Bowl where bettors were heavy on Michigan (line moved from
+1.5 to –2) so they capitalized on the Wolverines’ 38-30 win. Notre
Dame’s 28-6 loss to North Carolina State in the Gator Bowl was good
for the book as was Auburn’s 13-9 upset of Penn State in the Capital
One Bowl. The Rose Bowl was a big win for the book as players bet
Washington State from +7 to +5 on the spread and from +250 to +180 on
the moneyline. The Cougars’ 34-14 lost to Oklahoma. The late game was
the Sugar Bowl and bettors were scrambling after going 1-3 in the
early games. They chased their losses with Georgia over Florida State
and their QB problems. In a game that wasn’t too pretty to watch, or
pretty for the house, the Bulldogs won 26-13. The book was 3-2 on the
day but basically just flush on the sides, but the fact that the last
four games all finished Under started 2003 off with a decent winning
day.
The
Orange Bowl on January 2nd saw a steady stream of Iowa money until
just before kickoff. The line had come from USC –6 to –4.5 and it
looked like USC bettors had been hoping to get –4 but jumped in at
higher numbers when it didn’t get that low. When the game started the
book was still cheering heavily for USC so the Trojan’s 38-17 win was
great. The total had slipped from 57 to 55 so that side out there took
some of the profits back but overall it was a good game for the House.
The
Fiesta Bowl saw truly divided action. We opened Miami at –13.5 and it
slipped all the way down to –11 in the weeks before the game on
light-to-moderate action. As of January 1st, it looked like we would
be cheering heavily for the Hurricanes but from New Year’s Day on the
action came in heavy on Miami, moving the line back up to –11.5. The
moneyline started Ohio State +350 and went as low as +300 as Ohio
State bettors looked for the big payoff of a straight-up win. A Miami
cover and we lost the spread and won the moneyline. An Ohio State win
and we won the spread and lost the moneyline. A Miami win but
non-cover meant we would have won both ways and perhaps may explain
why a lot of bookmakers found that pass interference call tough to
take. The total moved from 51 to 48 but we did take a little Over
money after we locked it down at 48 on game-day so the extra points
from a double-overtime game helped more than a few bettors. The
Buckeye’s 31-24 win was not ideal but it did wipe out a lot of pending
teasers that had Miami so, the House came out ahead in the end.
We took
a couple of large futures bets on Ohio State after they beat Penn
State in October at 20-1 and 18-1 so we did come out slightly on the
losing end in that department.
Overall, I was extremely pleased with the 2002 College Football
season. We had record sign-ups, handle, profit and oh yeah, there were
some pretty good games along the way as well. After all, book managers
are sports fans too. I’ll be back next week with a look at the NFL
regular season.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
President
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