The Super
Bowl wasn't exactly a stellar game for fans to watch or for the book,
but Super Sunday was an overall success for us anyways. We set records
for handle, number of wagers, deposits and sign-ups. In fact we had
more sign-ups per hour on Sunday than we had in our first month of
operation way back when. Behold the power of the Internet!
Baskets
were very good to us and the handle was much higher than normal.
Sacramento's loss as an 8-point favorite in Toronto put a lot of
sweetheart teasers into the loss column and caused more than a few
players to have lost their big game wager before the Super Bowl even
kicked off. We also saw a lot of action on the Rockets (-3 at Chicago)
and on Texas Tech (-5 vs. Oklahoma State). Both lost outright and we
were already in good standing.
Our
goal on the big game was the same as it is every year - to break even.
There is no sense in playing aggressively when there are no more big
football games to help win back any losses. We had the two teams even
on paper but had to handicap for public perception and the slight home
field advantage for the Raiders (shorter trip, same time zone, more of
their fans, etc.). We have seen a lot of Raiders action down the
stretch (with the exception of the even hotter NY Jets games) and the
public was definitely against the Buccaneers last week so after
combining all those factors we opened at -4. Early action was on the
Raiders but after watching the trends at other offshore books and in
Vegas we ticked down to -4 (-105). We stayed there all week and were
fairly balanced but after the dismissal of Raider's center Barret
Robbins there was a definite change in public perception and the Tampa
money started to come. We moved down to -3.5 and then -3.5 (-105) and
got the Raider's money back we needed. At kickoff we were all even on
the spread with just slightly more action on the Raiders.
The
total was much easier where we bounced between 44 and 44u15 and ended
up with extremely balanced action. There was marginally more wagered
on the spread (for those keeping track).
The
only number that hurt us was the moneyline. We opened at -180/+160,
which is low for –4, but we expected dog money there. It was bet all
week down to -155/+135. Raiders action at that number brought it back
to -160, where we closed with moderate exposure on Tampa Bay (although
much lower than where we stood on either New England in the Super Bowl
last year or Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl earlier this month).
Needless to say, a Raider's win would have been good for the House but
because of the large amount of vig collected on the spread and total,
we came out only slightly in the loss column for the game on single
wagers. Parlays were good as we saw a general correlation with
Raiders/Over or Buccaneers/Under being common plays. The mixed result
gave us a very solid 15% hold on parlays. Teasers were also very
strong with both the spread and total landing WELL outside teaser
range. Hard to believe that a 30-point teaser on the Raiders and Under
still would have lost both legs! As usually happens when the score is
that far off the mark, we held almost 50% on teasers.
First
half wagering was profitable as there was Oakland spread betting, no
moneyline and slightly more on the Under. Halftime wagering was
slightly profitable on very strong handle as Oakland bettors chased
their losses by laying 4 in droves. They did OK with heavy action on
the Over though.
Quarter
betting was moderate in handle but very profitable as the Raiders
failed to win a single quarter!
Props
were very profitable and handle was incredible. We had more on the
coin toss then we had on all the Saturday night NHL games combined! I
think that stat alone shows just how big the Super Bowl really is. For
the record, heavy action was on Heads, the Raiders to win and the
Raiders to receive so we had profited nicely before the game even
started. We did face some big losses on props though. Had the first
score been a Safety or if the game had gone to Overtime, there would
have been a couple of players buying new cars with cash today!
The
most incredible stat for me though was that our handle for the day was
in excess of 75% of players' balances. Literally thousands of players
had their entire balance at stake. It was the end of a good football
season and a great month for the House. Let me recap quickly the rest
of the playoff games here.
Wildcard weekend got off to a bad start as bettors jumped on the Jets
bandwagon and rode them to a 41-0 win. The saving grace for us was the
total finishing just Under (it had been bet from 41 to 42 with most of
the Over action at 41.5 and 42). The second game got revenge for the
books as the Packers straight up loss to the Falcons caught everybody
by surprise. Another Under made it a winning day overall.
The
Sunday Wildcard games were two of the very best in recent memory. Both
home favorites, the Steelers (36-33) and the 49ers (39-38), came back
to win despite being down 24-7 and 38-17 respectively. The high scores
were good for bettors but there were a lot of angry bettors who had
wagers on the dogs on the moneyline. Spread action was split with
bettors taking Cleveland and the points but losing with the 49ers. All
in all, the day was effectively a wash for the book but a great one
for sports fans.
The
second weekend of the playoffs was not nearly as exciting. All four
home favorites won outright and only 1 game was decided by less than
14 points. Bettors lost on the Titans –5 and the Steelers +180 but won
with Over 44 in the Titans’ 34-31 OT win. Bettors came back and got a
win on the Eagles –8, but lost with Atlanta +270 and the Over 38 in
the Eagles 20-6 win. In total, Saturday’s action was good for the
book, but the big day was just around the corner. Bettors were very
evenly split on the Buccaneers/49ers game so that result didn’t really
matter (Bucs 31-6) but were in extremely heavy on the Jets (spread and
moneyline) and the Over 48. As a result, the Raiders’ convincing 30-10
win was one of the biggest paydays of the entire season for
sportsbooks.
The
Conference Championship games were also good for the book. Players
were in heavy on the Eagles and soaked up the Titans on the moneyline
so the Buccaneers’ upset and Raiders’ win/cover were both good
results. The Eagles’ loss was another of the biggest paydays for the
House this season. Players did have success with the totals as both
games went over the number.
All in
all, the playoffs were good for us. The best games to watch were early
weeks, the best results were in the middle weeks and so the Super Bowl
was more than a little anti-climatic. It is a good thing book-managers
and sports fans alike have come to expect that from the “big” game.
Thanks
for reading this past football season and I’ll be back in a couple of
weeks with a column on basketball and a look at whether there are any
“key” numbers there.
I
always welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
President
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