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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers CRICKET Nobody likes to have a bet on something that they think cannot be beaten, and then have to sit there and see the money disappear from right under their nose, but that is exactly what happened to one Sydney punter last week in the first one day final between Australia and England. The punter in question had $800 on Adam Gilchrist to be 'man of the match' at $11, and he looked a certainty to win after taking six catches, then coming out and smashing the English attack. Imagine our surprise, and the punters 'lament', when Brett Lee got the gong! If that decision wasn't strange enough, we didn't bet on the Alan Border Medal as we considered Matt Hayden would be at an unbackable quote to win the AB Medal, as well as the 'Test' and 'One day' player of the year. It was quite astonishing that Hayden failed to win any of the awards. We must have been watching different matches to the judges during the previous 12 months. There is still a lot of conjecture surrounding the World Cup, and it is having a dramatic affect on the betting to win the title. Australia remain favourites at $2.60, and while we recently took a $5000 bet at that quote, the injuries to some of the squad has definately turned punters off. The host nation, South Africa, have been attracting a lot of small bets at $3.50, and that will probably disappear as their Pool could be weakened by several of the Sri Lankans not being able to play due to a pay dispute. We now have New Zealand on the equal third line of betting at $9, along with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and India. There has been a flood of money coming across the Tasman for the Kiwi's, including two bets of $2000, and one of $1200, all which came at the quote of $11. New Zealand went well enough against India recently to suggest that they are not without some hope, and are capable of batting on the quicker South African pitches. This week we opened up several Cup markets, including the 'most wickets' and 'most runs', not only for the entire series, but also for individual teams. Matt Hayden and Ricky Ponting share top billing at $11 to make the most runs, but we have already 'laid' Adam Gilchrist at $15 to take out $10,000. England's Michael Vaughan, who impressed in Australia, has been backed to win a similar amount at $34, while Michael Bevan's groin injury has deterred at least two punters who each placed $100 each way on Bevan at $41. Aussies dominate the bowling, represented by four of the top five in the betting. Glen McGrath and Brett Lee are co-favourites at $11, ahead of Jason Gillespie, Shane Warne and South Africa's Shaun Pollock at $15. Shoaib Ahktar has been backed to win $10,000 each way at $26, but he is another who has had his share of injuries BASKETBALL Incredibly, Canberra brought to an end a horror run of losses when they defeated the Tigers last Saturday night by 4 points. Big money went on Melbourne, including a $10,000 bet at $1.28, and it wasn't a very good night for punters as the heavily backed West Sydney were comprehensively beaten by Wollongong. Three games were played last night (Wed), with the two best backed sides being Sydney and Perth, both of whom were playing away from home. Backing the Kings at short odds has a limited future, but that didn't put off one Sydney punter who placed $8000 on the Kings at $1.16 to beat Canberra. As well as that, there were three separate bets of $2000 for Sydney to beat a 10½ handicap which they did easily winning 108-80. It was very similar with Perth, who had to travel to Brisbane. As well as being coupled up in several large multiple bets with Sydney, there was also a bet of $6000 for Perth to win at $1.30, and two bets totaling $6600 for them to cover the spread of 6½ points. Again the punter collected as Perth won 111-96. The games of interest at the weekend will be the ones having a big bearing on the make-up of the final six. At this stage either Melbourne or West Sydney appear set to claim 6th place but both teams are finding wins very difficult to achieve and if they continue this trend the door will remain open for another challenger to emerge from the pack. Melbourne host Perth as a four point under-dog and West Sydney are a seven point outsider against Sydney. Early money in these games sees the punters love affair with favourite continuing. Cairns host Canberra and the winner will put some token pressure on Melbourne and West Sydney if neither of those teams can secure a victory. In WNBL news, Canberra's two wins over the Melbourne based clubs coupled with Sydney's loss to Adelaide ensured top spot on the ladder for the Capitals. Punters were on the mark with Canberra with bets of 6500 NOK and $5000 at the short odds to beat Bulleen and they had no worries as Canberra cruised to a 94-60 win. Not so fortunate were those who supported Sydney in their two games. 3000 SEK and $800 at minus 11½ were two of numerous bets on Sydney in their first game of the weekend against Perth. The final margin of 11 points was not quite enough for those punters to collect. They were well supported against Adelaide with a bet of $4000 at $1.45 but the home team finished too strongly with a 26-13 final quarter to secure an eight point win and strengthen their hold on a playoff spot. With one week to go the playoff picture can still change a little. Canberra will finish on top regardless of their result against Adelaide. Sydney will finish 2nd and Townsville 3rd unless Sydney lose at home to Bulleen and Townsville get two wins over Perth in their double-header. Adelaide's fate is in their own hands. One win will be enough to secure 4th spot as they head to Canberra to first take on the ladder leaders and then the AIS. Even though Canberra don't have to win, Adelaide won't be expecting any favours as Tom Maher is unlikely to allow a finalist to gain an edge over his team by beating them in the final round. Early support has been for Adelaide with bets totaling $3500 at their opening price of $2.40. Dandenong's fate is out of their hands. They need to beat Bulleen but must rely on Adelaide losing both of their games if the Rangers are to take part in the finals. Dandenong’s “must-win” scenario hasn’t impressed our regular Norwegian WNBL client who has invested 2000 NOK on Bulleen to win at odds of $4. AMERICAN FOOTBALL As suggested last week, Tampa Bay were big 'firmers' in Super Bowl betting before they went on to completely humiliate Oakland. Many though it would be the defensive qualities of the Bucaneers that would see them through, but if fact it was their attack that had the game all but over just before half time. The final scoreline of 48-21 was indicative of how good Tampa Bay were, and there were plenty of happy punters around the globe who were on them with Centrebet. The single largest bet on Tampa Bay was €10,000 taken on the day of the game from a client in Austria at $2.45. Even though the 'line' had originally opened at a flat 4 and had moved into 3½, money continued to come for Tampa Bay. Bets of $12,000, and $10,000, both from Australians, came for the Bucaneers with the start, but as they were big winners in our 'futures' Super Bowl book, we were in a pretty good position. Invariably, and it happened again, rank and file punters prefer to be on the 'underdogs' in these finals, so we 'chased' Oakland out in the betting, and it had the desired affect. We took some hefty bets for the Raiders, the biggest of those being $USD 8000 from the Caribbean when they touched $1.65, but there were also bets of £5000, and $9500 for them conceding the 3½ points start. All in all, it was a very ordinary season for NFL punters, but that is how it has been for a couple of seasons. Looking back through our records, we could only find four weeks where more than 50% of the favourites beat the handicap, so those kind of stats make it virtually impossible for favourite backers, so there is an early tip for next season, steer clear of the favourites! GOLF Last week saw the PGA Tour return for the 1st event of the year on mainland USA with the Phoenix Open. With the form player in the world Ernie Els committing to the European Tour, players saw this event as an opportunity to chalk up their first win of the season. Phil Mickelson was installed as a $12 favourite but early support ($2000) saw his price tumble into $10. Defending champion Chris Dimarco was also the median of good support with one bet of $3000 at $18, Retief Goosen 3000 DKK at $18 and Harrison Frazar, 2000 SEK at $81, all well supported, and as pre-tournament betting indicated, anyone of 12 golfers could have won on the final day with Vijay Singh, still 2 shots behind Harrison Frazar, the $5.50 favourite. Singh shot 6 birdies on the front nine to grab a 3 shot lead and eventually become the 5th international player in a row to win on the PGA Tour. Singh proved to be Centrebet’s saviour as 2nd placed Huston, $1000 each way at $7 after the 3rd round, Gamez, Goosen and Frazar were all well supported. The European Tour event for the week, the Caltex Masters in Singapore, was dominated by Ernie Els who opened at $3.25 favourite and was immediately backed to win over $20,000. Other contenders were defending champions Arjun Atwal at $34 and Anders Hansen and Thongchai Jaidee at $18. Ernie opened with a 3 under 69 and by the completion of the 2nd round led by 3 shots and had shortened into $1.60. One European client found that to be attractive odds and placed €4000 to say Ernie could win 4 in a row. And while his 3rd and 4th round were not up to his usual standard he still managed to hold a one shot lead from Lian-Wei Zhang coming to the 72nd hole. Then what proved to be a wicked twist, Els pushed his drive into the rough and eventually took bogey while Zhang hit his second to 4 feet and made birdie. An unexpected result for Centrebet. This week the European tour comes to Australia, where the Heineken Classic will be played at Royal Melbourne for the second time. The defending champion is none other than Ernie Els at $4 from a host of European players including Thomas Bjorn, $21, Paul Casey $26 and Nick Faldo $51. Best of the Australians is Peter Lonard at $12 and Stephen Leaney at $31, but all the money has been for Els, $5000 at $4 and Royal Melbourne specialist Peter O’Malley $1000 each way at $41. It should be a true test of golfing ability with high temperatures, quick greens and an even field. The PGA Tour goes to California for a 5 round event, the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. Phil Mickelson is again favourite at $8 to defend his title and after his solid first up performance at the Phoenix has been backed to win $20,000. Others well supported have been Robert Gamez, Stephen Ames, Joe Durant, Bob Tway and our own Aaron Baddeley all to win $20,000, from one of our English clients. This event always proves to be a low scoring affair and an extremely close contest. RUGBY LEAGUE This weekend at Aussie Stadium in Sydney, is the rebirth of rugby league world sevens with 15 NRL sides represented along with 8 international sides including Great Britain, France and Fiji. Sydney Roosters have been installed opening favourites at $5.50 on the strength of their premiership win last season and their strong squad which is stacked with pace. However punters don’t see it that way with Parramatta ($1500 at $9), Newcastle ($2000 at $11) and St George Illawarra ($1500 at $12) all well supported. When you add a strong Brisbane Broncos squad along with the improving Warriors and Canberra, and an experienced Great Britain, you will find this will be a quick, exciting and even competition. We will be offering group, head to heads and line betting from Friday as well as a full service for finals on the Sunday. SOCCER This weekend sees the return of Premier League, and “live betting” on Arsenal v Fulham, West Ham v Liverpool and Aston Villa v Blackburn. This form of betting has proven popular with our regular clients and these games should prove to be no exceptions. Early betting suggest Arsenal should have little trouble with Fulham at Highbury, with one Scandinavian client placing 30,000 NOK at $1.33 while Middlesbrough are given a great chance at home to Newcastle, with one client having €10,000 at $2.85. Manchester United again are proving popular with punters, giving every indications they will start shorter than their current quote of $1.85 as they take on Southampton at the Dell. In Italian Serie ‘A’ last week punters could not have been further off the mark with Roma going down 2-0 away at Como along with 2 bets from the one client from Italy who placed €10,000 and €5000. Also Udinese v AC Milan also proved a windfall with over £20,000 placed on AC Milan at $2.10, just to see them suffer a 1-0 defeat. It all proved to be our best round of Serie ‘A’ for the season. This weekend however punters are predicting Udinese cannot cause another boilover as they journey to Parma, with over $20,000 placed at $1.90 on Parma. Spanish Primera Liga last week also brought a punter from Spain to his knees with Atletico Madrid going down to Real Sociedad 1-2 and Deportivo finding Espanyol too strong at home and succumbing 3-1. We mentioned last week how early money was an indication as to a teams chances and perhaps last week was the exception to the rule. This week a client from Italy has found Alaves to be of value placing €6000 at $1.95 to beat Rayo Vallecaro at home and Malaga to be too strong at home for Recreativo De Huelva with a bet of €6000 at $1.70. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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