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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
CRICKET The VB Tri Nations One Day Series commenced last Friday with an enthralling game between likely finalists Australia and India. Betting commenced with USD$30,000 on Australia at $1.40 and they were to get out to $1.60 when the score was 4 for 89. However a 143 run partnership between Andrew Symonds and Michael Clarke saw the betting right itself as they firmed into $1.20, having set India a target of 289. India then got off to a breezy start making over 100 before losing their first wicket and although well supported throughout the game by rank and file cricket followers it was not until they passed 200 with only four wickets down before the serious money arrived including one wager of USD$15,000 at $2 from one of our Indian clients. India was to firm into $1.15 before losing their fifth wicket at 257 and such is the fickle nature of one day cricket proceeded to lose their next five wickets for thirteen runs and fall eighteen runs short of the total set by Australia. Matches of this quality provide thrills both for spectators and punters alike so let’s hope there are more in this series before it concludes. Zimbabwe have taken on Australia and India in the two most recent games in the VB Series and for forlorn Captain Heath Streak VB can only stand for Very Bad. The capitulation against Australia and never get warm performance against India confirms what every body suspected, the Tri Series is in fact a two horse race. The highlight in these games being the punter who placed $50,000 on Australia at $1.10 and again at $1.08 with Zimbabwe having Australia 5/118 and finally chasing only 225 for victory. His feeling of uneasiness was quickly turned to joy as Australia tore through the top order to have the 5/17 – game over! The key game regarding who will head the table at the end of the preliminary rounds is played at the Gabba this Sunday in a day/nighter between Australia and India. Betting will be available after Friday’s Australia and Zimbabwe encounter but expect the betting to be tighter than the first up game between these fiercely competitive countries. BASKETBALL Round 15 of NBL action provides significant challenges to punters and line-makers alike. With seven teams playing more than one game and with the number of injuries to key players, not to mention Townsville's new import requiring immigration clearance, deciding who to back is more difficult than usual this week. Before deciding who to put their hard earned punters have to determine if the following players are suiting up or not...... Kevin Freeman (Bris), Marcus Timmons (Cairns), Neil Mottram (Melb), Ben Melmeth (NZ), Brett Maher (Adelaide) and new Townsville import Ruben Nembhard. These are only the main known concerns heading into the round and doesn't take into account any injuries that are incurred during the course of the earlier games. Brisbane emerged victorious from their first assignment of the round against Melbourne on Wednesday but now have to travel south to take on the two Sydney teams on consecutive nights and most likely will have to do it without Kevin Freeman. They didn't miss him against Adelaide last round but the Sydney teams will provide a far tougher challenge. As we move into the last third of the season there is plenty of interest in the battle for top position on the ladder (and home court throughout the play-offs) and also the battle for the last couple of play-off positions. It appears that Sydney, Brisbane and Wollongong will fight it out for the top two positions, even though West Sydney would argue otherwise. At the other end of the table only Hunter have given up on final aspirations. With Cairns losing 6 of their last 7 they have opened the door for Townsville, New Zealand or Victoria if any of those sides can string a few wins together. It all adds up to some exciting NBL action between now and the end of the season. Perhaps the highlight of the round is the "Summer Jam" clash in Perth with the Tigers visiting the Wildcats. Perth's management should be congratulated on their promotion of this event which sees it being played before a capacity 8000 crowd at Burswood in addition to ESPN beaming the event live throughout Asia. The Wildcats won't let their fans down in vital match. WNBL action sees a possible grand final preview as Lauren Jackson and the Capitals visit Dandenong who are just starting to look a little shaky with recent losses to Adelaide (away) and Bulleen (Wednesday night). Those losses has given the Capitals a realistic chance of stealing top position from the Rangers and expect them to take a step closer to that goal with a narrow victory over the Rangers at the Stud Rd stadium on Sunday TENNIS The Australian Open is the first major international event on the 2004 sports calendar and we are seeing plenty of pre-tournament action on our men's singles market. Unsurprisingly, there is a fair amount of money for Australia's Davis Cup heroes, Lleyton Hewitt (7.50) and Mark Philippoussis (26.00), but players attracting even more support include championship favourite Roger Federer (4.50), Carlos Moya (21.00) and Tim Henman (41.00). For a short time last year, Henman was our Australian Open market leader. Incredible but true. Such is the confusion surrounding several of the world's top female tennis players that our women's singles book is proving difficult to build. What is certain is that Justine Henin-Hardenne will head our market. There was a big week of tennis action to start the new season with tournaments in India, Qatar, Adelaide and the ever popular Hopman Cup in Perth. Being the first week there were some pretty rusty players keen to get over their Xmas exertions and as expected their were plenty of early upsets. World number one Andy Roddick lasted till the second round of Qatar before being bundled out by the evergreen Swede Jonas Bjorkman in straight sets. In Adelaide number one seed Wayne Ferreira didn't even get that far with a first round thrashing by young Aussie up-and-comer Todd Reid. While the scoreline was surprising (6-0, 6-1) an upset was predicted by some tennis punters as Reid had amassed an impressive record of 20 victories from his last 21 matches on the second-tier Challenger tour. Big Aussie Mark Philippoussis, world number 6 Rainer Schuettler and the "next big thing" out of Europe, Rafael Nadal were all first round casualties in a mixed bag of results for tennis punters. After struggling to survive in his first match of the year and saving match points, Carlos Moya went on to defeat Paradorn Srichaphan in a marathon final in India. World number 54 Dominik Hrbaty collected the prize in Adelaide after not dropping a set in the tournament and in Qatar, Nicolas Escude, on the comeback trail after a season of injuries in 2003, also failed to drop a set in a highly impressive win in his first full tournament for 6 months. The Hopman Cup saw the best field ever assembled for the event, however injuries to a number of players robbed the mixed-sex tournament of much of its glamour. Firstly women’s world number 2, Belguim's Kim Clijsters hurt her ankle in the second round and not only pulled out of the event but is only rated an outside chance of playing in the Aussie Open starting on Monday. Then Australia's Alicia Molik also hurt her leg and had to withdraw from the event, which alternately left the USA to face off against the Slovak Republic in the final. The USA team of Lindsay Davenport and James Blake won the Cup for the second year in a row for the USA after winning the mixed doubles comfortably when the singles were shared one a piece. So far this week the upsets have continued. Venues this week for the ATP tour are Auckland and Sydney in final leadups to the Aussie Open. By far the biggest shock occurred in the first round of Sydney's Adidas International where unknown Aussie wildcard Chris Guccione upset world number 3 and top seed Juan Carlos Ferrero in impressive style in straight sets using his massive serve, in a performance reminding many of a young Philippoussis. Also suffering the first round blues were James Blake, Rainer Schuettler (for the second week in a row), world number 16 Sjeng Schalken and Chilean hitman Fernando Gonzalez. GOLF The PGA season kicked off last week with the Mercedes Championship in Kapalua, Hawaii. Tiger Woods was installed favourite at $3.75, from defending champion Ernie Els at $7.50, however punters found the $8 on offer Vijay Singh, $13 Davis Love and Jim Furyk and $26 Chad Campbell better value, all backed to win over $50,000. This proved to be a great betting event with all but three of the competitors backed to win something and this included one wager of $250 each way on Stuart Appleby at $34 from a local client. Appleby virtually led from wire to wire and held off a late charge from Singh who managed to birdie four of the last five holes to fail by a shot. Darren Clarke put in another consistent display to finish four shots further back in third place while Woods and Retief Goosen were two shots back in a tie for fourth. We remain in Hawaii this week for the Sony Open and the recent form of defending champion Ernie Els is of concern, not only to himself but punters alike. Vijay Singh is favourite at $7.50 from a friendless Els at $9 and Davis Love $10. Australian Stuart Appleby has been well tried at $21 having won two of the last four event on this tour, while Charles Howell ($26) and Chris Riley ($51) have been backed to win $40,000 by a client from the US. While punters have not warmed to this event, it still contains a top class field, most now with an event under their belt so expect some tight competition at the top of the leader board. RUGBY UNION The Super 12 season commences on February 20th and Centrebet have released our tournament winner market with few surprises. Bookmakers took a hiding last year with the Blues being backed from an opening quote of $14 to start the final at $1.72. So intense was the support that at the completion of the first round they were $3.50 and favourites having been backed to win over $100,000. Exposed form from the World Cup and local NPC and Currie Cup seasons suggests it will be more difficult for punters to find value such as the Blues last season but such is the volatility of Super 12’s that anything is possible. Poor early season draw and a question on the form of Carlos Spencer has the Blues $2.30 favourites, a quote I’m sure would be shorter given the strength of the squad, but not for these negatives. The Crusaders are on the second rung of betting at $4 and perhaps could be shorter given their Super 12 history but this squad is now getting on in age. Best of the Australian teams are the Waratahs at $7 and Brumbies at $8 and along with the Hurricanes at $13 completes the domination of the South African teams. If one is to find value in this market it may come in the form of the Bulls at $26. They were the early surprise packet last season and although this squad is young, Currie Cup success and more experience may see them able to make the next step. FOOTBALL English Premier League referee Paul Durkin's admission that he waved away Alan Shearer's penalty appeal incorrectly is no comfort to Centrebet punters who backed Newcastle to end their Old Trafford hoodoo with a little help from the Magpies captain. Newcastle boss Bobby Robson applauded Durkin's honesty in owning up to his mistake - it was such a clear-cut penalty that even Manchester United manager Alex Ferguson sympathised with the visitors - but he did not take odds of 3.50 that Shearer would score one or more goals, 8.00 that the Magpies skipper would open the scoring and $8.25 that last season's fourth-place finishers would return north with three Premier League points for the first time ever. Those that did may not forgive Durkin for a considerable time because, in spite of Newcastle's appalling recent record against the Red Devils, they were one of the best backed Old Trafford guests in years. Manchester United remain our Premier League title favourites ($2) but the outlook is no so good for their neighbours, City. Former Blues midfielder Eyal Berkovic starred in Portsmouth's home defeat of City, whose winless streak stretched to 14 games in all competitions before their English FA Cup replay defeat of Leicester on Wednesday. Four teams are odds on for the drop - Wolverhampton ($1.12), Leeds ($1.72), Leicester ($1.72) and Portsmouth ($1.90) - but City's price ($6) is collapsing. Remember, it was no long ago that Manchester's second side were playing English Division Two football. So congested is the Premier League ladder below United, Arsenal and Chelsea that the any three of about a dozen clubs could go down. There are no stand-out fixtures on this week's Premier League programme. Bottom plays top when Wolverhampton entertain Manchester United at Molineux and, even though the former Red Devils players in the cellar dwelling team's line-up will be hugely determined to perform well against their old club, there are very few takers for almost double-figure odds about the home side winning their fourth game of the season. Early-bird punters are steaming into two of the division's lesser lights, namely Middlesbrough ($1.75 from $1.85) and Southampton ($1.67 from $1.75) versus relegation candidates Leicester and Leeds respectively. Keep an eye on the Saints over the next few months now that Gordon Strachan has announced that he will leave the south coast team at the end of the campaign. Will he lose his grip on the Southampton dressing room now that Saints players know that he is walking out the door in May?
Until next week, good punting. For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or
centrebet@centrebet.com.
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