|
|
|
||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet Capers
AMERICAN FOOTBALL We are at the business end of the NFL season with divisional play-offs commencing this weekend and the draw has made betting on the Superbowl an interesting affair. New England appeared the team to beat, favourites for the AFC for the last 6 weeks and the AFC holding the edge over the NFC in recent times, however they need to beat Indianapolis at home before travelling to Pittsburgh who broke their unbeaten run of 22 games earlier this season, which will be no easy assignment. Given that task their price has drifted from $3.85 out to $4.50, even though they were all the rage three weeks ago. Pittsburgh are now Superbowl favourites, firming from $4 into $3.30 on the strength of the draw which commences with a home game against the Jets. If both these teams are successful this week, and the betting suggests that is most likely, then the winner of the AFC conference the following week will be the Superbowl favourite. Indianapolis are $6.50 after being backed to win $40,000 at $7.50 early last month, while the Jets are friendless at $34. The NFC has Philadelphia as their leading light at $3.50, firming in from $4 a couple of weeks ago. However there has been little support for them based on the fact that the consensus is whoever wins the AFC will probably win Superbowl. Nevertheless they are $1.65 to win that conference which at least gets them into the final. Atlanta are next best at $8.50 while the Rams and Minnesota Vikings are not likely at $21 and $23 respectively. On a closing note, no team which has lost its closing two regular season games has gone on to win Superbowl in modern times. Sorry Philadelphia, Atlanta and Minnesota but where does that leave you. Is it any wonder the money has dried up in the last week, but the floodgates may open after this weeks divisional play-offs. GOLF The PGA season got under way last weekend with the Mercedes Championship in Hawaii. The top players in the world shrugged off the festive season with an enthralling event, won by Australian Stuart Appleby, who became the first player in 22 years to have back to back successes. But it wasn't all easy. Appleby almost didn't return to defend his title because of an injury to his left thigh, coupled with his wife expecting their first child it appeared the trip would not be worth his while. But worth, it was, as the laconic Australian pocketed $1.06 million and a Mercedes-Benz sports car for his one shot victory. The victory was even less likely after he opened with a one over par 74, eight shots behind 2004 leading money winner Vijay Singh, six behind world number one Tiger Woods and five behind 2004 Volvo Order of Merit winner Ernie Els. A fair complement of players to be giving a head start, all of which would have made his trip back home even sweeter. Betting on the event was extremely brisk, which is a good sign for the coming season, while the result was unexpected given the strength at the top of the leader board. Betting commenced with Tiger Woods $3.65 favourite, and attracting some attention at that price, Singh $5.50, Els $6 and attracting one $25,000 wager, while Retief Goosen was $8.50 and backed to win $150,000 by one of his loyal followers. At the completion of round one, with Singh looking in ominous form and holding a two shot lead, punters were all over the $3 we had on offer, the largest wager being $25,000. Punters didn't stop there however, with a further $10,000 on Els at $6.50 and some interest in Woods at $3.75 this event was shaping as a betting bonanza. A second round 65 from Singh consolidated his position at the top of the betting, firming into $1.80 while Woods and Els never lost sight of the lure. At the end of round three, Singh held a one shot lead over a consistent Jonathan Kaye with Woods and Els still well placed, while Stewart Cink appeared the last of the hopes, three shots behind the leader. One punter feeling he had the event tied up backed Cink to win $100,000 at $14, leaving us with Kaye and a resurgent Appleby, still four shots off the pace, as our only hopes. The rest is history with an eagle two on the sixth hole catapulting Appleby into a share of the lead. A triple on thirteen for Singh, two bogeys in the last three holes for Cink, and an errant drive on the last for Els saw Appleby complete a fairytale return to the paradise which is Kapalua. I wonder what will give Appleby the greater pleasure this week, holding aloft his Mercedes trophy or his first new born? The tour remains in Hawaii this week for the Sony Open. Betting has defending champion Ernie Els favourite at $5.50 ahead of Singh at $6 and Goosen at $11. Els and Goosen have already been backed to win in excess of $150,000 along with the improving Luke Donald at $34 with Singh seemingly friendless, a strange phenomenon giving the fact he led for 67 holes last week. The top three should expect some strong resistance from Adam Scott, Stewart Cink and an inform David Toms, all at $23, before they can expect a victory in Honolulu. BASKETBALL The most even NBL competition ever is producing it's share of close finishes and upset results. Whilst the winning trend of home teams has remained strong overall, five from ten away teams got the money in Round 15. No team can boast a winning record on the road with Sydney and Perth having the best away win/loss ratio of 50%. With most teams having around 10 games to play, the battle for positions at both ends of the table is intense, and it is likely that the final round results will determine top four and top eight positions. Top 2 and direct entry to the semi finals is much sought after, and whilst Sydney and Wollongong have the inside running for those prime positions at present, any lapse in form could see them tumble down the ladder. The big movers in the run home are likely to be Melbourne and Townsville. Melbourne's depth of talent is superior to any team and as long as they all stay fit they will push for a top two finish. Townsville finish with six home and two away games and in their current form they will win most, if not all, of those games. Those teams met on Sunday night in Townsville in a match up of the young and the old, in what will be the highlight of Round 16. TENNIS Less than one week to go before the commencement of the first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, and everyone is asking, 'who will beat Roger Federer?' Before his good win in Qatar last week Federer had been backed from $2.10 into $1.90, carrying one wager of $10,000 at $2. However with little money for the likes of Andy Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt both at $6 and queries over whether Agassi and Safin can still handle the rigors of a Gland Slam, both now $13, Federers' price has now firmed into $1.80. We still expect money for him at that price as it is likely that the draw as a number one seed will still treat him kindly. Of the others, Joakim Johannson had been training well with Hewitt prior to winning the Next Generation hardcourt title in Adelaide and has firmed into $26 while Carlos Moya, a winner in Chennai last week, may represent value at $34. The smoky, well perhaps David Nalbandian at $4, a quarter finalist here on two occasions, a sign he handles the conditions. The women's event is a stark contrast, when looking for the winner in this field it will be necessary to find a player with no injury queries. Historically this tournament takes it toll on players who are anything less than 100% healthy, and the early indications of the Australian summer are that this year will be no different. With the depth of talent in the women's game it is very likely we will again see new faces in the second week of the tournament. When looking for players who are fit and in form there is no need to look any further than Molik and Dementieva. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
|
||
