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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
TENNIS Marcos Baghdatis may have been a 'no-name' in Australia this time two weeks ago, but it now appears as though the Cypriot has been adopted by Australian tennis fans after Lleyton Hewitt failed to make it into the later stages of the Australian Open. Baghdatis was 330/1 in opening markets and was still at 250/1 after two rounds but many Australian clients took the big odds. Two have had $100 on him at 330.00, while another had the same wager at 251.00. Following last night’s five-set, semi-final win over David Nalbandian, Baghdatis is now into 4.50 to win Sunday’s final and there’s plenty of people who want to back him and see the fairytale continue. Amazingly since last night’s result we’ve seen a massive amount of money for Roger Federer to win the tournament, even though he’s yet to reach the decider. Overnight, close to $200,000 came for Federer from Europe which has forced his price in from 1.28 to 1.25. Firstly though, the world number one must knock off Germany’s Nicolas Kiefer in tonight’s semi-final. Federer is a very short priced favourite to do so (1.08) with Kiefer a despised outsider at 8.00. We were saved one monstrous payout when Kim Clijsters disposed of Martina Hingis on Wednesday. Hingis had been backed at 151.00 when the market opened some eight weeks ago and was as short as 5.00 last Sunday. Clijsters found her best form though, defeating Hingis in three entertaining sets but unfortunately had to retire injured in yesterday’s semi-final with Amelie Mauresmo. The final should prove to be an interesting affair with Justine Henin-Hardenne a 1.40 favourite to down Mauresmo at 2.85. Henin-Hardenne has been the favourite for most of the event but Mauresmo has also received her fair share of support after being backed to win plenty at 17.00 before the start of the tournament. As with all Grand Slam finals, there will be a host of additional betting options, as well as live betting throughout. CRICKET The entertainment has continued with the one-day series currently being played in Australia providing a mixture of upsets and records being broken. The policy adopted by Australia of rotating or ‘resting’ players has provided an unexpected windfall for the bookies as the Aussies have had trouble maintaining their winning strike rate. Yesterday’s match was played in oppressive conditions in Adelaide and the Aussies just snuck home after losing some crucial wickets chasing the 219 Sri Lanka set for victory. The Australians were 1.30 before the match and had two bets of $USD 20,000 coming from India at that price, as well as three $10,000 bets from Aussie punters. Sri Lanka was well supported as well, including one bet of $6000 at 3.60. Sunday's match will again feature Australia and Sri Lanka and with this match to be played at the WACA, the Aussies will have more favourable conditions that will suit the quick bowlers. Betting on that match sees Australia at 1.25 with Sri Lanka 3.75. Already we’ve seen one bet of $25,000 on Australia at the 1.25 and with a question mark hanging over the fitness of Sri Lankan opener Sanath Jayasuriya we are expecting more of the same in the lead-up to the game. Having a look at the series betting with finals spots still up for grabs we have the home team favourites at 1.28 with South Africa 5.50 and Sri Lanka at 8.00. GOLF Chad Campbell was rewarded for his consistency when he claimed his third US PGA tour title, with a three shot victory in last week’s Bob Hope Classic in California. Campbell finished runner-up to David Toms in the Sony Open in Hawaii in his first outing of the year and managed to hold off strong challenges from Scott Verplank and Jesper Parnevik in this event. Campbell was rated a 21.00 chance before the start of the tournament and quickly found himself into 2.00 after three rounds. Phil Mickelson was the pre-tournament favourite at 7.00 and attracted plenty of support at that quote including one bet of $3,000. Tim Clark was also well backed at 21.00 including one wager of $1500. This week the US tour is San Diego for the Buick Classic and it wasn’t a surprise to see Tiger Woods installed as favourite (3.75) for this event given he’s won the tournament three times in the past five years. However, it was a surprise that he was friendless in the betting prior to the start of the tournament with punters looking to Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia to find some value. Mickelson attracted one wager of $11,000 at his opening quote of 9.00 while Garcia was well tried at 17.00 including a bet of $6,000. On the European tour last week, Chris DiMarco flashed home to grab victory in the Abu Dhabi Championship with a closing round of five under par 67. Our tip Henrik Stenson put in another consistent performance to finish second by one shot with Sergio Garcia in third place. The best backed players in this event were Paul Casey (21.00), Thomas Bjorn (26.00) and Miguel Angel Jimenez (26.00). All of whom were backed to take out in excess of $50,000. This week we head to Qatar for the Qatar Masters where Ernie Els was the pre-tournament favourite at 5.50 ahead of Vijay Singh at 6.50. Els, as always is well supported and this week carries a $16,000 bet at his opening quote. Punters also think Miguel Angel Jimenez is good value with the Spaniard backed to take out close to $100,000 at 26.00. We believe Henrik Stenson is the man to beat again this week with his consistent play sure to be rewarded with a victory sooner rather than later. AUSTRALIAN RULES Chris Judd has displaced team-mate Ben Cousins as favourite to win this year’s Brownlow Medal. A steady stream of bets has seen the price for Judd cut from 13.00 into 11.00, with Cousins easing slightly out to 12.00. St Kilda's Nick Dal Santo continues to attract support and this week had another $300 each way placed on him at 17.00, while Luke Hodge (21.00) also had a good bet of $500 placed on him to win the coveted award. Western Bulldogs youngster, Adam Cooney is a shocking result for us at the moment as his price has plummeted from an opening 126.00 into 31.00 and even at that quote we continue to see money, including one bet of $500 each way. To date, over 120 players have had at least one bet placed on them to win the Brownlow so it looks like being bigger and better than last year, which broke all betting records. We have been forced to cut the price for the Sydney Swans, but it isn't to win the premiership. The Swans are into 51.00 (from 81.00) to win the wooden spoon and remarkably have had more money placed on them to run last than to win back to back premierships, with that price blowing out to 9.00. Collingwood and Essendon fans have been active with both teams coming in marginally to win the flag. The Bombers are 26.00 (from 31.00) after two $500 wagers were struck, while bets totaling nearly $5000 have seen the Magpies’ price cut from 34.00 into 31.00. We don't rate Collingwood at all but the evenness of the competition makes it impossible to rule any team out now. RUGBY LEAGUE This week we opened up several NRL 'futures' markets and it didn't take long to get a reaction from punters. Many have been waiting for the final eight betting after securing the big odds for both Wests Tigers and Manly last year and once again we have seen money for the roughies early. Close to $4000 has been placed on a new look Souths side at 2.75, nearly the same amount for Canberra at 3.50 and a bet from across the Tasman of $8000 for New Zealand at 2.25. As yet, we haven't taken any sizeable bets for any of the 'shorties' but that will come. Perhaps the demise of the Roosters and the Bulldogs last year may frighten a few away. As well as a final eight market, there is also a market to 'miss' the finals and a market to make/miss the top four. Both of these are payable on the result at the end of the home and away season as is the minor premiership. The Dragons are 5.00 favourites to top the table but the early money has been for the Tigers at 9.00 and Brisbane at 10.00. In premiership betting, the Broncos have been backed to take out close to $100,000 over the past couple of weeks, so we have cut them from 13.00 to 12.00, while the Bulldogs have been backed to win a similar amount at 11.00. Canberra is our 2.75 favourites to win the wooden spoon ahead of Souths at 4.00 but in keeping with the way things went last year, some of the early shoppers are looking for a good team to perform poorly. We have taken nearly $1000 for Brisbane to run last at 34.00, while nearly double that has gone on Cronulla at 13.00. You never know what you are going to get with the Sharks but if ever they are going to be a force, surely it will be this year after the recent untimely death of Steve Rogers. DANCING WITH THE STARS This series of Dancing with the Stars promises to be the best ever, and judging by the early betting interest it’s going to break all betting records as well. Former Miss Universe, Jennifer Hawkins is a firming favourite (3.25) and looks certain to go even shorter than that. As we explained last week, Jennifer fits the criteria of a likely winner and punters have really warmed to her. Simone Warne has also been popular even though nobody is certain if she can dance or not. Most of the bets we have had placed on Simone have come from females which is interesting at this early stage. Channel 7 weather man Grant Denyer has had two bets of $200 placed on him but that has been about it and he has drifted out to 4.50. Toby Allen has been the most popular of the males so far, with a series of bets under his name at 9.00. Molly Meldrum has blown out to 17.00 as he has been the only celebrity who has failed to attract a bet to date but no doubt that will all change once the series gets under way. ELECTIONS The next Finnish President will be elected this weekend and the betting suggests that Tarja Halonen will be re-elected for another term. Halonen was an unbackable 1.02 chance when betting opened with a full field of eight. For those who aren't aware, Finland have a unique system in that there are two rounds of voting, with the top two 'vote-getters' coming back the next week to do battle. That is where we are at now with Halonen up against Sauli Niinisto. The betting for the final two opened with Halonen at 1.28 and Niinisto at 3.25 but nearly €20,000 forced Niinisto’s quote into 3.00. It was at this stage that we began to see some serious money for Halonen, including one bet of €18,000. We have often remarked before how election punters just seem to pop up out of the ground when there is an election on somewhere and our point was proved when an Australian client placed a total of $20,000 on the favourite in this election at 1.15. Looking back over his fine record, we are confidently predicting that Taja Halonen will take her place at the head of proceedings in Finland again next week. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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