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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
Six of the seven league favourites lobbed last weekend yet we managed to "pull the right rein" on most matches and still record a healthy win for the weekend. After opening at $1.90 take your pick, the Bulldogs eventually started $1.75 favourites against Parramatta on Friday, and duly delivered the goods with their 12th successive win. Given that these two are well up in premiership betting, and it was a Friday night match, the turnover was quite low, but that was probably due to several Origin players having to "back up". We thought the Bulldogs would win anyway, so we steered away from taking any large wagers on them, definitely a good move! The big plunge on Melbourne came unstuck when they were beaten 36-22 by the Eagles. Friday saw some big money arrive for Melbourne, backed in from $2.30 into $2.05. Some of the bigger bets included $16,000 at $2.20, and $15,000 with 3½ points start. When the Eagles touched $1.80 we took a few more bets for them, including $3000, but their win provided us with a big result. Andrew Johns' withdrawal from the Newcastle side threw betting in that particular match into turmoil on Friday. Johns was rated 50/50 to play, so we took the precaution of suspending the match until the news was confirmed. When it was announced Johns, along with Timana Tahu and Robbie O'Davis would be out, the handicap re-opened at -13½ after being 18½ prior to that. Newcastle had lost their previous eight matches when Johns hadn't played, so we began to see money for the Rabbitohs. A $6000 "win" wager was taken at $4.50, and numerous bets receiving the handicap start, but there was also money for Newcastle. One Sydney client confessed as he was placing $8000 on Newcastle at -13½ that he had placed the same wager at another organization on Souths with 18½ start, so the final score of 26-8 in favour of Newcastle saw him collect both bets. Sunday was a big betting day. The Roosters had already been a solid "go" before we took a $50,000 bet for them conceding eight points start at $1.85. Wests Tigers led the Roosters 8-4 at half time, but in a highly competitive second half, the Roosters managed to hit the front and just hold on the beat the Tigers 16-14, not a big enough margin to see the handicap supporters of the Roosters get home. The same client did recoup some of his losses after placing $25,000 on Canberra, who were conceding three points start to Penrith. As we rated Penrith a strong chance to win, we got a "truckload" of money out of Canberra, including two other bets of $20,000 at the same handicap. Penrith scored first, but that was the end of the good news as Canberra went on to win 24-12. The New Zealand Warriors bounced back from shock loss the previous round to beat Brisbane 26-16. We said last week that early trading on this one had been pretty slow, and what money we had taken had been for the Warriors at $3. Brisbane had lost their previous two "post origin" matches this season, and this made a third, so it probably wasn't a major surprise even though they were favourites. It was a struggle to "lay" Brisbane, and we had to force them in on Sunday, before getting late bets of $10,000 and $6600 at -7½ points start. We also took a $20,000 bet from New Zealand for the game total to be over 50 points ($2), but it never looked likely to reach that figure. This week, every home side is favourite, and five of those are nearly unbackable. Parramatta travel to Newcastle on Friday night as outsiders, and just to prove how unpopular the Eels have become, we have only seen $4000 for the once premiership favourites at $2.80. The Eels will be getting seven points start, but the signs are there that it's going to be one way traffic for Newcaslte. A New Zealand client has bet early, placing $15,000 on Melbourne to beat the Tigers by more than 11½ points, and also has had $10,000 on the Bulldogs conceding 14½ points to the Eagles. On Sunday, we will get to see whether St George-Illawarra are a realistic finals hope when they travel to Brisbane. Some think they are, as we have already taken close to $3000 for the Dragons to win at $4, and double that amount for them with 11½ points start. The "blockbuster" of the
round is also on Sunday when Cronulla host New Zealand. The Kiwis have
found form, and we have bestowed favourtism on them at $1.85. One of
Sydney's biggest league punters took that with a $25,000 bet. The
Warriors struggled against the speedy Dragons two weeks ago, and we
think that Cronulla will get the money here. Very bad news from the AFL betting last week when all eight favourites won, six of those also covering the handicap. One favourite we did have a small win on was Essendon, who after leading Melbourne by 50 points in the second quarter, "staggered" over the line to win by 12 points, barely enough for those who took -11½ points. The Melbourne man who placed $10,000 on Melbourne early in the week at $2.60 and $2.50 was back on Friday, investing another $10,000 on the Demons to win, also placing $8000 on them with the start. The rumours that a host of Richmond players would be out sparked a plunge on Geelong, and while not all withdrew, punters collected when Geelong thrashed Richmond by seven goals. Geelong firmed from an opening $1.90 into $1.62, but that price pulled punters up. There was some late money for Richmond at $2.25, but not enough! Brisbane were going for 18 home wins in a row when $1.08 to defeat Carlton, and didn't those who took the short odds have some very anxious moments before they collected! The Lions were the stand out "anchor" in multiples, but we also had taken bets of $14,000, $10,000, and even $2000 to say that Brisbane would win at the short odds. The Swans had lost seven games in a row, but as soon as coach Rodney Eade resigned, everybody wanted to be on the Swans to get back into the winners circle, and in an awesome display they won easily 139-62. The Swans went from $1.65 into $1.55 in a push synonymous with when they were playing well a few seasons ago, all because they lost a coach! The West Coast provided the "last nail" in the coffin of bookmakers when they beat Adelaide on Sunday. The West Coast opened at $1.67, and while we expected late money for the Eagles being a Sunday favourite, we weren't prepared for the onslaught that saw the Eagles start $1.45. Some sentimental money arrived for Adelaide, but again nowhere near enough. This week there has been another strange betting move on Friday night's match. Carlton have lost 10 matches in a row. We made them favourites against Richmond on the strength of a good showing against Brisbane last week, but judging by the betting you would think Carlton had won their last 10, not lost them! The $1.75 was taken with $4000 worth of bets, $1.70 was backed to the tune of $15,000, and now punters are lining up to take $1.67! It's also worth noting that most sides do struggle after playing in Brisbane, so that does look well under the odds now. Sydney fans have been conspicuous by their absence this week when they go in as $2.35 shots to beat Hawthorn at the MCG. Those who backed Sydney last week are nowhere to be seen this week, with all early money being for Hawthorn. The line-ups for Saturday night's match between the Bulldogs and Essendon will be most important, and with so many question marks on this one, we have hardly taken a bet! It's possible that James Hird and Matthew Lloyd could be back for Essendon ($1.62), and it's also possible that Chris Grant, could be out of the Bulldogs ($2.20). That's all too hard to follow, so you can't blame punters for not getting involved yet. The domination in the West is tipped to end on Saturday night. A night game does put the traveling sides right back in it, and it would be a brave man to tip against Port Adelaide ($1.35) when they front up to Fremantle ($3). Punters agree, as we have taken loads of bets for Port, but Fremantle's form at home is so good we are prepared to stick with them. On Sunday, we have been eager to "risk" Collingwood in Adelaide. We opened the Magpies at $2 and took close to $9000 in bets for them, but the money has now dried up. Brisbane are out to $2.50 to win the premiership, with Port at $3. Going through the draw, top spot on the ladder might come down to their match in Adelaide in the last round. On current form, Port would be favourites, and would probably win, so a top spot is looming for Port, and premiership favourtism! Ben Cousins' performance on Sunday has seen his odds slashed for the Brownlow. Cousins' is the player whom we took a $3000 bet for a few weeks ago at $9, and he is now into $3.50. Brisbane's Simon Black was the other player well in the betting who played well at the weekend, and he is back into $13. [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] Barring for a "knock on" in the dying seconds of last Saturday night's Test, the French could quite easily have scored a big upset by defeating the Wallabies. The Australians managed to hang on to win 31-25, but still seem to be struggling with their combinations, and will need to improve if they think they are going to beat the All Blacks in Canterbury in a few weeks time. Tests on Australian soil are always big betting affairs, and the French Test was no exception. After initially seeing money for France to win, as well as get within 12 points, the late arrivals all went for an Australian win. A $50,000 wager, one of the biggest union bets this year, came from a Sydneysider who took the -11½ Australia ($1.90), and that was after we had already taken bets of $20,000 and $10,000. The biggest winning bet on the French handicap was from an English client who ploughed in with $8000 at +11½ points. That rounded off a good night for our friend from afar as he also placed $3000 on Fiji with 60½ points start ($2) against New Zealand. The All Blacks were expected to rack up a cricket score against the Fijians, but in a bruising encounter, the All Blacks won 68-18. Later in the night, South Africa scored a 49-29 win over Argentina. We continue to see some interest in the Springboks to win the Tri-Nations at $7.50, but they will have to play their first two matches away which is a big ask. While on the Tri-Nations, we have opened up a couple of extra markets this week. Chris Latham and Sterling Mortlock are $10 equal favourites to be the tournaments leading try-scorer. We have seen early bets for Christian Cullen ($11) and Jonah Lomu ($15), as well as league "convert" Wendell Sailor at $17. There is also a market on the leading Wallaby try scorer where Latham and Mortlock are $3.75, with early support for Sailor ($8), Owen Finegan ($34) and Matt Rogers ($41). Mortlock and Lomu have also been matched up in a Series head to head, with over $3000 already wagered, the bulk of which is on the big Kiwi at $2. [Golf | GOLF] Len Mattiace shot a last round 64 to win the Fedex Open last week, and while we didn't win on the Fedex, it could have been a lot worse. Canadian Glen Gnatiuk held a four stroke lead coming into the last round. We "laid" Gnatiuk to take out $15,000 prior to the first round, then took two bets for a payout of $27,000 at $9 after the second round. Even though Gnatiuk was a bad loser, we tried to get more out of him at $1.50, but only took bets of $1000 and $600. It was up to Mattiace to emerge from the pack as Gnatiuk compounded (last round of 77!), but we didn't miss Mattiace either as a Victorian won just under $20,000 after backing Mattiace each way at $31. For those who may not know, Mattiace is fourth of the Tours money list. The withdrawal of Tiger Woods from the Western Open has now made it a very open and competitive event. Vijay Singh and David Toms are the new favourites at $12, and while Singh has been struggling and hasn't attracted too much interest, Toms has been quite popular. Defending champion Scott Hoch is a $23 chance, and he has been having chronic problems with his sight, a major problem for a golfer! A sprinkling of money has come for Robert Allenby each way at $26, and we have also taken a $2500 bet for Davis Love to finish in the top four at $4.50. Danish punters have a new favourite after Soren Hanson won the Irish Open in a four way playoff on the fourth hole. Hanson has met with support all year, normally at around the $51 mark, and the same thing happened in the Irish Open. Coming into the last round, two of our worst results, Thomas Bjorn ($4) and Hanson ($5) looked likely to fight it our, but Bjorn struggled through the last round to finish one behind the leaders. This week Padraig Harrington, Darren Clarke and Retief Goosen are $12 co favourites to win the European Open which will be played in Dublin. A good field, and open betting, has seen plenty of action early, including $2500 for Harrington, $2000 each way for Clarke, and Danish duo Bjorn ($21) and Hanson ($41) carrying bets to win $40,000 apiece. The "K Club" course is relatively easy terrain to overcome, and low scores are the order of the day. Darren Clarke is the defending champion after shooting 15 under last year to defeat Bjorn by three shots. Lee Westwood won the previous two events in 2000 and 1999 (when he defeated Clarke), so a pretty good argument could be put forward for backing either of those this week. Westwood is currently $34, but his form has definitely slipped over the past 12 months. Annika Sorenstam is at the Tiger-like odds of $2.50 to win the US Ladies Open this week, and a Swedish client has invested €2500 to say that Sorenstam will continue her dominant form. Defending champion Karrie Webb, shooting for a record three straight Open titles, is on the second line of betting at $6 after early money arrived at $7, with South Korea's Se Ri Pak third elect at $10. All three tournaments, as well as the US Seniors event, will be updated daily. [Entertainment | ENTERTAINMENT] For the second year in a row, Australian Big Brother was won by a male, but it had to be when Marty and Peter were the last two standing. Betting indicated that Sara would be evicted on Sunday, and that is what transpired. That left Marty and Peter. Marty had been a raging favourite since betting opened three months ago, but as soon as the final betting opened, it was evident Marty was in trouble. Marty opened favourite at $1.60 with Peter at $2, but when betting closed on Monday morning, they had switched places, and we had taken enough bets to gain the impression that the public were "sold" on Peter. He eventually grabbed 59% of the vote, a big win. All up, counting all the evictions and the final, we came out slightly ahead, so it was a worthwhile exercise. This week, Centrebet breaks new ground when we cover the World Wife Carrying Championships in Finland. This is a serious event, run annually, and the records are recognized by the Guinness Book of Records. The track is just over 250 metres long, partially sand, grass and asphalt. There are three obstacles, one of which is a water obstacle. Naturally the husband can be as big or small as he likes, but "the wife" must be a minimum of 49 kilos. Margo Uusorg and Birgit Ulricht from Estonia have won the last two easily, running 55.5 seconds in 2000 to smash the world record. Birgit is under 49 kilos, so will carry an impost of "dead weight", but the couple from Estonia are long odds on at $1.10 to win again. We have put up a market on whether or not the world record will be broken, and have taken several bets for the record not to be broken at $1.20 this event gets big media coverage, so it will be interesting to see how much is bet on it. We'll report in next week. [Formula One | FORMULA ONE] One of the most popular Grand Prix's on the calendar is always the British Grand Prix, and we have noticed a distinct increase in the level of betting on Sunday's big race at Silverstone. The Ferrari's are at the top of the betting list, with Michael Schumacher at $1.75 and Rubens Barrichello at $4, but every single drive has drawn some sort of support. Scotsman David Coulthard opened at $15, but is now into $11 after being backed to take out over $45,000, all from English clients, and Finnish clients have got behind Kimi Raikkonen to win a similar amount, and he is into $23 after opening at $31. Quickest qualifier from two weeks ago, Juan Pablo Montoya, is a $5.50 chance, but we haven't seen too much action for him thanks to his appalling record. It's a different story though with the betting to finish on pole position. There is no doubting the speed of Montoya's car when he isn't surrounded by others, so we have taken two bets, both from Germany, totalling €3000, on Montoya to qualify quickest. Coulthard ($2.50) and Raikkonen ($4) have also been backed to finish on the podium, with one punter from Sweden going for a miracle with a bet of $50 for Alex Yoong to finish in the top three at $401. [Tennis | TENNIS] With most of the big names dropping out of the men's draw at Wimbledon, the only newsworthy item left is who will win the "battle for the ashes" between Lleyton Hewitt and Tim Henman on Friday. This duo have been the favourites since betting opened as both had "soft" draws. The further we have gone into this tournament, the bigger the crowd support has grown for Henman, and we think he is "ripe" to be given a nice old hiding by Lleyton! Should both win tonight (Thurs) to earn the right to playoff, we suggest Lleyton will be as short as $1.35 with Henman at $3, we are prepared for an onslaught from English punters. The pair have met on five previous occasions with Hewitt ahead 5-0, so good luck to those who want to back Henman! The interest levels in the women's title is still at an all time low as a result of the Williams sisters being on either side of the draw, and its pretty short odds that they will meet in the final. We now have Venus at $1.60 with Serena at $2.65, and if they do meet in the final, hopefully they provide a better spectacle than they did in the French Open. [Soccer | SOCCER] We can't add much to story of the World Cup, which saw Brazil outclass Germany 2-0. Most of the "exotic" options offered on the final went to the favourite options, but it was such a monstrous betting event that the spread of betting saw us win on some of those options. The "90 minutes" of betting saw a record amount wagered, with all three options easy to sell. The biggest single bet on Brazil was $50,000 at $1.80, and three individual $10,000 bets were placed on Germany at $4.50. Another German client placed €12,000 on the draw at $3.25, but we had to wait until half way into the match for our largest "draw" bet. Another of our Indian cricket regulars placed the equivalent of $46,000 on that option at $3, and then came back with another $20,000 at $2.80. The popularity of Ronaldo grew as the series progressed, and when he found the net first in the final, that was not a good result! Ronaldo was $4 to be the first goal scorer, and what was ironic was that a client from Norway who was in line for a payout of 100,000 NOK ($AUD 22,000) when Ronaldo won the Golden Boot, also placed 8000 NOK on the Brazilian to score first at $4. One of our long term options that had gone for 62 matches without a result was whether the quickest goal for the tournament would be scored in under/over two minutes. Over $16,000 had been invested on the "under" at $1.85, and with only two matches remaining, I thought we were "safe". We didn't bargain on Turkey's Hakan Sukur who found the net after 13 seconds, the quickest in World Cup history! We have opened up several "futures" markets including Euro 2004 and the English Premier League. There was an immediate reaction to both, particularly the Premier League. Bets to the value of $6000 and $4000 have come for Man United at $2.50, with Liverpool ($4.25), Leeds ($15) and Manchester City ($101) each backed to take out close to $40,000. As yet, defending champions Arsenal ($2.65) haven't been backed with a good sized bet, but it is still early. We have five equal favourites (France, England, Italy, Netherlands and Spain) at $7 to win Euro 2004. The Netherlands never made it to the World Cup, and practically all of the other four were very disappointing, notably France. Of those favourites it has been France and England that early money has come for, along with Denmark ($21) and Turkey ($26). Most of the other major European titles for season 2002/2003 will be opening in the coming weeks. Until next week, good punting. For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at
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