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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
Some punters are seeing Friday nights test match between Australia and Great Britain as a way of increasing their balance with little risk associated, and looking down through both squads, its hard to argue with. We posted Australia at $1.08 to win, or -24½ points, and in early action have taken bets of $10,000 (from New Zealand), $8,000 and $5,000 at the short win odds. The handicap was meant to "lure' some English money, and it has, with bets of $38,000 and $10,000, for Great Britain with the start. One Sydney punter has placed $10,000 on Australia conceding the start, but has also had $6,000 on an Australian try being the first scoring play at $1.50. English referees are renowned for blowing penalties (not as bad as Bill Harrigan!), so the $1.50 doesn't appear too much of a "spoil". We have added an additional market on the performance of Aussie Captain Andrew Johns. Punters can bet on whether Johns will get under or over 16½ points for the match. Johns has averaged 13 points a match this season, and did score half of Australia's 40 points in last year's second Ashes Test. The downside is that he still appears to be struggling with a groin injury. The current spate of big betting on League continued through last weekend, which saw five of the seven favourites win. Bill Harrigan has been taken off our Christmas Card list after Friday nights performance which saw Newcastle beat Parramatta 24-18. The Knights has been well backed before we took two bets off a client from NSW of $30,000 on Newcastle -7½ ($1.90) and also $50,000 to win at $1.40. By his own admission, he was very lucky to lose only $10,000 on the match. Plenty of money arrived for Melbourne to beat an 11½ point handicap over Wests on Saturday, and after leading by 18 points with 10 minutes left to play, Melbourne went to sleep and let the Tigers get within six points when the final whistle was blown. A Kiwi placed $15,000 on Melbourne (-11½), but this was over shadowed by a $40,000 (from NSW) bet also for the Storm at -11½ points. To say we were excited with Wests "comeback" is an understatement. The Bulldogs 42-22 win over the Northern Eagles battered us around a bit. $10,000 bets were taken on the Bulldogs at -14½, -15½, and that was followed up by $30,000 conceding 16½ points start. The big money continued to roll into Saturday nights match between Penrith and Souths. The game showed up the deficiencies of both sides when only six points of the 23-16 win recorded by Souths were scored with the gale wind. Souths went in as $5 underdogs with a $4,000 wager taken at $5.50, while several league stalwarts helped themselves to the 14½ points start. A New Zealand client placed $30,000 on Penrith at -14½ ($1.90) and also had the same bet on the game total getting beyond 46 points, so Souths would not be his pin-up side at the moment. Sunday saw Leagues biggest bet of the year taken, and proved to be a winner when Cronulla beat New Zealand 36-24. The Kiwis had been backed from $1.85 into $1.70 with us prior to Sunday. Bets of $25,000 ($1.80), $20,000 ($1.85) and $17,500 ($1.80) had already gone on New Zealand, but a Sydney client bet against the trend, placing a massive $100,000 bet on the Sharks at $2.10. A bet this size would normally spell disaster, but still money came for the Warriors, including a last minute bet of $28,000 from a Melbourne man. The Sharks were $331 to win the title a few weeks ago, and are now not only looking a major threat, but are back into $23. It's a tricky round this week, with most prices being affected by Fridays Test Match. We have been caught out before in the aftermath of Origin and Test Matches, so the matches which include Brisbane and Newcastle will not be available until Saturday. For what its worth, both outsiders in those matches (Penrith and Canberra), although comprehensively beaten last week, should go close to winning. Saturday afternoon, Melbourne will be without Robbie Kearns and Scott Hill, which we anticipated would lead to money for the Roosters to beat them, but early on its been Melbourne. We took two $2000 bets for the Storm at $2.75 and also $6600 for them receiving 7½ points start. Saturday evening has seen early support for North Qld to beat the Eagles in Townsville. After opening at $2.05, one League enthusiast placed a $5000 wager at that quote, then came back with $8000 at $2. You could retire on what we have lost on the Bulldogs this season, and although St George-Illawarra will have a few backing up, we are tipping (or hoping!) that they can spring a surprise at WIN Stadium. The Bulldogs have been popular through multiples at $1.50, but we have also taken two early bets totaling $11,800 for the Bulldogs at -6½ points ($1.95). Cronulla receive 5½ points start at Parramatta on Sunday, with early action split between the pair. It's a crucial match for both sides, but we think the home ground advantage will see the Eels get home. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] Taking short odds has always had a limited future as those who backed Brisbane to continue on their winning way found out on Sunday. The Lions went in at $1.15 favourites to beat Melbourne, and while there wasn't one big single bet placed on them, there were two $5000 wagers, and several smaller. A Victorian punter placed $10,000 on Brisbane at -37½ points, and when they lead by that margin at quarter time, he was entitled to think he couldn't lose. Its been a bad loss for Brisbane as they could finish as far down the ladder as third. Port Adelaide have ousted them as favourites, now into $2.50, with Brisbane at $3 ahead of Collingwood at $6. Collingwood again impressed on Sunday when they gave Adelaide a football lesson. We got some early money for Collingwood at the opening of betting at $2, but they touched $2.15 on Sunday following a late rally for Adelaide. Sunday was not a good day for punters as there was also a solid push for St Kilda ($2.40) to beat the Kangaroos, but similar to Brisbane, after leading by 30 points, the Saints fell in a heap to go down by 44 points. One of the best games of the year saw only the game come out a winner on Saturday night. The Western Bulldogs and Essendon played out a thrilling 118-118 draw, and after both sides lined up as named, we saw a good spread of money for both. The two points will be handy for the Bulldogs, who incredibly are now fifth pick at $28 to win the Premiership. This week, the Bulldogs feature in the match of the round against Hawthorn on Friday night. The Bulldogs play so well at Colonial that they get our "nod of approval" at $1.60. money for Hawthorn at $2.30. Another favourite that should win is the Kangaroos on Saturday. The Roos are $1.33 to beat Fremantle, with this match being played in Canberra. Freo's drubbing last week has possibly put an end to their finals hopes, and we have set a high handicap of 24½ here, looking for Fremantle backers. Essendon face a tough assignment in the west on Sunday. James Hird will be returning to the scene of his horrific accident when the Bombers fly in to take on the West Coast. Fitness of both Hird and Matthew Lloyd is going to be the big issue as this is an afternoon match, not ideal conditions. A Sydney man clearly disagrees with our odds as he has placed $10,000 on Essendon at $1.72, as well as $5500 at -7½ points. The same punter has placed $8000 on Adelaide at $1.25 to beat St Kilda on Saturday night, and while he might get the cash, the Crows are definitely vulnerable if Andrew McLeod doesn't play. Luke Darcy of the Western Bulldogs has become the player everybody is talking about in relation to the Browlow Medal. Darcy is now a solid $4.50 second favourite behind Ben Cousins ($4), with the other significant mover being Nathan Buckley ($17-$10) and Brent Harvey ($15-$8). Carlton's win last week has breathed a bit of fire into Wooden Spoon betting. The Blues are out to $1.50 ahead of St Kilda ($3.50) and Richmond at $4.50. We have taken $2000 in bets this week for the Tigers, who are still three wins, plus percentage, ahead of Carlton. [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] One win in Christchurch in 44 years is hardly an inspiring form line to go into a match with, but that's the statistic that the Wallabies have to face up to when they play the All Blacks on Saturday. The New Zealand side is full of Crusaders, so it will be virtually a home game for them. Not surprisingly, this is shaping as a big betting bout. After opening Australia at $2.75 or 6½ points, we were forced to make a price change after a South African client plonked $16,000 on the Wallabies with the start. A Queensland punter then placed $10,000 on them at 5½ , as well as $4000 to win at $2.50, but now the betting has settled money is coming for both sides. We have seen a lot of activity from New Zealand, including a $20,000 bet for the All Blacks at $1.50, and others have followed with bets of $12,500 and $7000 for the All Blacks conceding the start. European punters have stuck with the traveling side, but it's going to be a big ask to win down there. Series betting has all been one way, with big money forcing New Zealand from $2 into $1.90. What has been a surprise is that while there is any amount of money for Australia to win this week, nobody wants the $2.25 for the Wallabies to win the series. Doug Howlett is now $9 favourite to be series Top Scorer, and interest is picking up in a series point scoring match-up between Matthew Burke and Andrew Mehrtens. Burke has 6½ points start on his Kiwi counterpart, and this week we took a $4000 bet for Mehrtons at $1.85. There will also be additional betting options on Saturdays match, and those will be available Friday. [Golf | GOLF] Jerry Kelly fired a last round 65 to win the Western Open last weekend. Kelly was $61 in our opening market, and only attracted one bet of $35 at that price, but he did have one admirer prior to the last round beginning. A Qld punter placed $2000 on Kelly at $9, also placing $2500 on Davis Love at $9, and while Robert Allenby looked the one to beat at the time, this Queenslander had "his eye in" as Love eventually was runner up to Kelly. Allenby had a disappointing last round of 75, and that would also have been a disappointment to those who took the $2.25. Bets of $7000 and $4000 were struck at that price, so Kelly's win wasn't too bad for us. Kelly is $15 second favourite to win this week's Greater Milwaukee Open. Most of the big names are missing as they prepare for next weeks British Open, so the "lesser lights" get a chance to rack up a win. Scott Hoch is favourite at $15, but it's the next two in the market that have most with support. Loren Roberts ($17) won this event in 1996 and 2000, and has been runner up twice in 1994 and 1997. An Australian client has placed $1500 each way Roberts, also placing $1000 to win on Shigeki Maruyama at $18. Maruyama won in a play off last year from Charles Howell, but like Roberts has been out of form. Incidently, Hoch is also a two-time winner, having won in 1995 and 1997. For those who have been betting on our new "daily player performance" option, the Brown Deer Park course is a little on the easy side, with the last seven winners collectively shooting116 under par. In Europe, Michael Campbell bounced back to winning form in the European Open, but not before scaring the wits out of his backers. Campbell went into the last round as our $2.75 favourite, and was best backed after the competition of the third round. Campbell opened up a five shot lead before collapsing to finish only one shot ahead of Brian Dredge. Campbell will compete in this weeks Scottish Open in what is a very good field. We have "laid" Campbell ($21) to take out over $20,000, mostly from New Zealanders, and have also had him to lose $100,000 in the British Open at $51. Ernie Els (winner in 2000) is $10 favourite this week, and as is usually the case, Australian punters have been keen to take that. A Qld client has placed $2000 on Darren Clarke at $19 as well as $1500 on Colin Montgomerie at $15. Lots of small bets are riding on last years winner Reteif Goosen at $12, and we have the usual band of support from Denmark for Thomas Bjorn at $26. Plenty of Australians are in the filed, but the "standout" looks to be Peter Lonard ($26) who has had a terrific season in the USA. Historically Australians have played won in the Scottish Open, providing three winners over the past ten years, but none of those winners (Wayne Riley, Peter O'Malley and Craig Parry) won on the Loch Lomond course. [Formula One | FORMULA ONE] This Formula One script is becoming more predictable as each race concludes - Juan Pablo Montoya qualifies quickest, then the Ferraris come out and dominate the race! The British Grand Prix was the largest betting event since the Australian Grand Prix, and even though the three favourites filled the Podium placings, we managed to still come out ahead. Michael Schumacher started race favourite at $1.80 after touching $1.90. We took a bet of €8000 from Germany on the morning of the race, but a quick look at the weather maps, which correctly predicted rain, saw us cut the price as the German is right at home in the wet. Both Montoya ($4) and Rubins Barrichello ($3.50) were backed to win close to $30,000, but as the bad weather closed in, we found anybody else further back than four on the grid hard to sell. Those who backed Barrichello would have been shocked when he was banished to the back of the grid after the warm up lap, and his effort to finish second was outstanding. Barrichello was very solid in top three betting at $1.60, while third placed Montoya ($1.85) is always difficult to lay, and with these two occupying the placings behind Schumacher, we recorded a good victory on this option. Punters stuck with David Coulthard ($2.50) who had a fine record at Silverstone, and Finland's Kimi Raikkonen at $4.50. Barrichello's quickest lap of the race also provided a handy win for Centrebet after punters stuck with Schumacher and Montoya. It was mostly German clients who took the $2 for Schumacher to drive the quickest lap, while a client from Italy invested $6000 in two bets for Montoya to lap quickest at $3.75. The German Grand Prix is next on the calendar, but don't expect any flash odds for Schumacher to win on home soil. [Motor Bikes | MOTOR BIKES] The bikes go round at Donnington on Sunday, but with Valentino Rossi continuing on his merry way, not too many seem to care too much about betting on winning the event. Rossi is at $1.28 ahead of Max Biaggi and Tohru Ukawa at $7.50. While not suggesting that Biaggi can score an upset win, he definitely looks the one to beat in the "Rossi out" market. Biaggi and Ukawa are $2.75 equal favourites in that option ahead of Carlos Checa ($4) and Alex Barros ($5). Biaggi finished fourth in Holland after qualifying in second position, and was runner-up to Rossi in this event last year. Barros, who was third placed last year, is also slowly returning to form as shown by a second placing in Holland, but that was his first worthwhile glimpse of form this season. [Entertainment | ENTERTAINMENT] The World Wife Carrying Championship title is going back to Estonia, but not with raging favourites Margo Uusorg and Birgit Ulricht after Margo pulled a hamstring and they had to withdraw. With the current world record holders (55.5sec) out of the way, punters rallied behind the winning time being much slower, with the most popular times being between 61 and 63 seconds, and 63 and 65 seconds. The winning time of 64 seconds fell in the second mark, and there were plenty of happy winners as this option was backed from $7 into $3.50. Estonian couple Meelis Tammre and Anna Zilberberg were our second favourites in fresh betting at $4.50 following a good form line of being placed second in three previous Wife Carrying Championships. Fortunately we only took a few small bets on the couple, so we did recoup something on this option. It was also interesting to note that they also adopted the "Estonian carry" made famous by the World Champions, so this is obviously the way for budding aspirants to improve their time. The press world wide picked up on the fact Centrebet covered this event, particularly here in Australia. In fact there are now moves to ensure that Australia has representation next year, as this trophy, and the World Soccer Cup, are the only events Australian hasn't won! [Cycling | CYCLING] The World's best bike race, the Tour De France, is currently on and as usual we have several bet options daily. Lance Armstrong is going for three Tour wins on end, and prior to the start had been backed from $1.65 into $1.45 with the largest bet being €5000 at $1.50 from an Italian bike enthusiast. Robbie McEwen's win in the third stage was one of our best results ever on a stage. We opened McEwen favourite at $3.75, but by start time he had eased out to $4.50 after a barrage of support for Erik Zabel, Tommy Steels and a host of others. Zabel, backed to take out just under $40,000, firmed from $4.20 into $3, but did land a $9000 winning bet at $1.35 to say he would beat home Baden Cooke, one of the other Aussies, who finished third, just behind Zabel. Centrebet will cover all stages, with several daily match-ups. [Tennis | TENNIS] Doing a lot of pre tournament home work on Wimbledon paid dividends when Lleyton Hewitt proved far too classy for David Nalbandian in the men's singles final. It was obvious to all that Hewitt was in a soft part of the draw, hence the price of $7 that was freely available, but close scrutiny of the draw revealed that the only possible danger in that part of the draw was going to be Tim Henman, who he had beaten five times from five attempts. We "went" for Hewitt as best we could, and after he disposed of Henman to make the final, we were in a good position. Actually, that semi final was a great betting match as we took bets of $60,000 and $40,000 for Hewitt at $1.30, and he was still a winner as Henman drew a stack of support, mostly from English punters. Hewitt took Henman to the cleaners, which saw him go into the final as a $1.12 favourite, the shortest in our history at least. David Nalbandian had a $3000 wager placed on him at $12 prior to disposing of Xaviar Malisse, but when he made his way into the final, the only real money we saw for Nalbandian at $7 was from those who had taken the bigger odds for Hewitt, either with Centrebet, or elsewhere. As predicted, betting on the women's final didn't break any records with all the "conspiracy" theories floating around on the Williams sisters. Venus started favourite at $1.60, with the largest single bet being $12,000, however we did accept a $20,000 double for Venus into Hewitt. Serena was far too powerful for her older sister, and now deserves to be favourite ahead of Venus for the US Open. [Soccer | SOCCER] There is at least some major soccer competitions who are currently playing regular matches, so soccer punters have turned their attention to those, and some of the minor competitions as well. Norwegian Tippeligaen returns this week after a players strike, and while the betting on the round has been up for ten days, only Molde, Brann and Rosenborg have been singled out by punters as probably winners. Molde ($1.90) are at home to Odd and Brann ($2.50) are away to Moss, and both of these sides have attracted several significant "singles" bets, as well as being popular through multiples! Viking were one of the best backed sides to win this years Tippeligaen before the season started, but we have only seen a few small bets for them at $4.65 to win in Trondheim against Rosenborg. Rosenborg opened at $1.60, but many big bets, including 80,000 NOK ($AUD 16,000) saw that disappear, and judging by some of the bets coming at the new odds of $1.55, that might not be there for much longer either. Six of the eight favourites won in division one last Sunday which saw punters come out well ahead. There was also a midweek fixture last night (Wed) which saw Centrebet stage a fightback even though a couple of well backed sides won. Raufoss ($1.85 - $1.70) defeated Asane 3-1, Honefoss ($1.60 -$1.45) beat Tollness 4-2 and Hodd ($1.60 - $1.45) proved far too good for Orn-Horten 5-2 in results that went the way of punters. It was Tromso's 4-2 loss to Aalesund and Lorenskog holding Ham-Kam to a 1-1 draw which meant the difference between winning and losing, particularly the second game. Ham-Kam were the shortest favourite for the round at $1.25. Naturally they were the "banker" in most bets, with one client from Oslo spending 240,000 NOK in coupling up Ham-Kam in a series of multiple bets, only to lose the lot. Ham-Kam supporters have already forgotten that match as they have again launched into the short odds to win this weekend. Ham-Kam are $1.40 to beat Tromsdalen, and have been extremely popular in multiple bets with Stromsgodset ($1.15) and Tromso ($1.25). Most of our European
"futures" markets are open in preparation for the new season,
and next week we will have a look at any early movers in the betting.
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