OnThePunt
Home
Aussie
Rules
Basketball
Cricket
Formula One
Golf
Rugby League
Rugby Union
Soccer
Tennis
|
|
FROM CENTREBET Centrebet
Capers
Posted 3:40 PM, July 18, 2002
RUGBY LEAGUE
I know
we said last week our aim was to “lure” some money from England for
Great Britain to get within 24 points of Australia in Friday night’s
Test, but we didn’t contemplate most of Australia wanting to be on the
Lions as well.
One of the first bets taken was from an English client who emptied out
his account balance, nearly $33,000, on the Lions with 24 points start.
Thinking money was always going to come for Australia, we then proceeded
to take bets of $15,000, $10,000 (four times!) and two $5000 wagers on
the Brits at +24½, +23½ and +22½ points start. We also took a $4000
bet for them to win at $7.25, and numerous smaller bets. The appointment
of an English referee, as well as the thought that the match
“needed” to be close as the future of International League was on
the line, seemed to inspire punters to rally behind the Lions with the
start. We did manage to find two $10,000 bets for Australia to win at
the short odds, and also a couple of $2000 bets for the Kangaroos
conceding the start, and the 64-10 win in favour of Australia was one of
our best ever league results.
The extra betting option on whether Andrew Johns would score under or
over 16½ points also went the right way. Johns’ 20 points all came
from the boot, but that was enough to dispose of bets of $6000 ($1.65),
$5000 ($1.60) and $4400 ($1.60) that said he would be under 16½ points.
Punters then had to endure a horror weekend of results when only two
favourites were able to win.
Melbourne returned to something like their old form when impressive
48-10 winners over the Roosters on Saturday. The Storm normally attract
backing at home, but it was all one way traffic for the Roosters, led up
by a $40,000 bet conceding 6½ points start.
The same punter did stage a pretty good fight back later in the day when
he placed $30,000 on the Eagles to beat North Qld at $2, and followed
that up with a $50,000 bet on Brisbane at -8½ against Penrith. That
wasn’t the only big winning bet for the Bronco’s as bets of $15,000
and $10,000 also came for them to beat the handicap, and that was after
Shane Webke and Gordon Tallis had been ruled out.
Four matches on Sunday provided three upsets in a big betting day. Two
$10,000 bets were placed on St George-Illawarra with 8½ points start
against the Bulldogs ($1.90), but wagers of $40,000 and $13,000 went on
the Bulldogs conceding the start. Those punters seemed certain to win
when the Bulldogs led 22-6 at half time, but the Dragons fought back to
nearly snatch victory, going down 28-26. A $30,000 double was placed on
the Bulldogs and Newcastle to win, and with the Knights also attracting
three $10,000 bets conceding 5½ points start, we were looking for a
forward showing from Canberra, and that’s exactly what we got when
they defeated Newcastle 30-24. Our thinking was that Andrew Johns would
be out, so Newcastle would be a risk, but it was only Danny Buderus who
failed to back up after the Test match. Taking that into account,
Canberra’s win was all the more impressive, and has probably got them
out of the wooden spoon danger zone.
Souths and Cronulla won the remaining two matches, both as outsiders,
although Cronulla landed a $30,000 winning bet ($1.90) at the handicap
of 6½ points start. Wests Tigers ended up being the shortest priced
favourites of the round ($1.28 or -9½), and their 38-24 trouncing by
Souths came at a big cost to punters as they also carried some big
money. The old adage of “being careful backing bad sides at bad
odds” probably could be applied in this case, but it’s all easy in
hindsight!
The Tigers go from raging favourites to despised outsiders this week
when they face the daunting task of traveling to Brisbane to take on the
Bronco’s. Wests are $9 to win, or +24½ points, and only the Tigers’
most ardent supporters have taken that.
The Bulldogs are $1.40 to continue on their winning way on Friday night.
Early trading has seen close to $20,000 go on the Bulldogs to win, as
well as bets of $15,000 and $10,000 on the handicap (-7½). The Roosters
were woeful against Melbourne, but in their favour is the second half
“fade out” that the Bulldogs displayed against the Dragons. This is
shaping as a very intriguing match.
After defeats at home (by the Dragons), and away to the Sharks, New
Zealand all of a sudden appear vulnerable, but that hasn’t deterred a
few early shoppers who think they will beat Parramatta on Sunday. The
Eels, once premiership favourites, have cost punters plenty in several
disappointing displays this season, and not many are trying to recoup
any of those losses by backing them this week. The Eels are $2.50 (+5½),
and like most traveling sides, have been hard to sell. New Zealand on
the other hand, have been coupled up in several large multiple bets, and
have also had close to $26,000 placed on them conceding the start in
early betting.
The rampant Bulldogs are our new premiership favourites at $3.25 ahead
of Brisbane at $3.75. Cronulla are now right back in calculations at
$16, while Melbourne, who were backed tow in $400,000 a few weeks back,
are now into $101.
AUSTRALIAN RULES
One of
these days, the deciding “last kick” of a match will go in favour of
the bookies after another two close finishes went against us on the
weekend.
The Kangaroos were never going to win against Fremantle on Saturday.
After trailing all day, the Roos kicked the match winner in the last
minute to win by one solitary point! Being a $1.28 favourite, there was
plenty of money going through the Kangaroos anyway, but we also found a
punter from Western Australia who wanted to risk Fremantle, placing
$25,000 on the Kangaroos to win, a very hard way to earn $5600!
Port Adelaide had a big struggle on their hands when they went to
Sydney, and it was up to Port’s Jared Poulton to kick a goal after the
siren to get Port over the line by two points. This was a little
different to the Kangaroos in so much that there weren’t any big
single bets on Port ($1.35), but of course they were popular through
multiples. One similarity with the Kangaroos match was that a Sydney
punter discounted the Swans hopes of being competitive, placing $30,000
on Port at -23½ points ($1.90), and while the Swans are out of the
finals race, they look certain to create a few headaches for some of the
other sides in the remaining matches.
Geelong, one of the wooden spoon favourites early in the season, are the
talk of the town at the moment, and can do us a favour if they can beat
Essendon this week. Essendon had a bet of $50,000 placed on them early
in the year to make the final eight at $1.16, and they are perilously
close to missing out on current form. The Bombers are $1.57 to beat the
Cats, but punters have kept right away from them so far. Both need to
win, but Geelong’s form is impeccable, and Essendon have to try and
regroup after a trip to the west.
Both Melbourne and Hawthorn have emerged from a form lapse to be
realistic title contenders. Both are $23 in premiership betting, and go
up against each other at the MCG on Saturday. Our opinion is that
Melbourne’s winning form has been better, therefore they deserve to be
slight favourites at $1.85. The early money agrees, with bets of $8000
and $6000, both from Victoria, coming for Melbourne.
The West Coast are $1.55 to win the local derby against Fremantle on
Saturday night. The Eagles are undefeated at home this season, and Freo
are out of the finals race, but there is plenty of “feeling” between
these two. That’s been indicated in the betting also, as we have seen
money for both sides to win.
We intend to “risk” Adelaide at home on Sunday. The Crows beat St
Kilda last week, but it was hardly a performance of a premiership
contender. The Bulldogs invariably play well at Footy Park and have
beaten the Crows in 13 of their 20 encounters so far. We have already
seen money for the Crows, with over $25,000 going on them at $1.62 in
the first 48 hours of betting.
There is a lot at stake when Carlton take on St Kilda on Sunday. A loss
by Carlton will almost certainly hand the Blues the wooden spoon, and
while they will be missing Lance Whitnall, they have done enough over
recent weeks to win. At least two punters think Carlton will run last as
the first two bets taken on this match were each of $5000 for St Kilda
at $1.90.
Ben Cousins and Luke Darcy are the Brownlow favourites at $4.50, but
there has been a bit of movement behind them. Shane Crawford is back in
calculations at $6, but Geelong ruckman Stephen King is the big
shortener, now a $21 chance. James Hird has missed a lot of football,
and did play OK against West Coast, and in our book looks unlikely to
feature this year, but we have taken one bet of $250 this week at $81.
While there are only six rounds to go, there are still a stack of
chances to win this year’s medal, the most open in years.
RUGBY
UNION
Christchurch
turned on its very worst weather when the Wallabies travelled there on
Saturday for the first Tri Nations Test. The predicted bad weather
saw a massive plunge on Australia to win, and also get within the
handicap, which came in from an opening 7½ points to 4 points start.
What did catch us by surprise with the big push for Australia was that
most of the money came from New Zealand. One new Kiwi account holder
placed a total of $18,000 on Australia with 5½ points start, $3000 on
Australia to win by more than 13 points at $7, and $2000 on the first
score being an Australian try at $5.50.
The atrocious weather was one of the main reasons behind no tries being
scored and it was the boot of Andrew Mehrtens that got the All Blacks
home 12-6, although most of Australia think the Wallabies should have
been awarded a penalty try.
How much that encounter took out of the Kiwi’s will be revealed on
Saturday when they play South Africa in Wellington. There is talk that
Lomu and Umaga will return to bolster the scoring capabilities of New
Zealand, who will go in as $1.22 favourites. The early betting has been
equally divided on the handicap line of 11½ points, with most of the
bets going on the Springboks receiving the start. One of our bigger
Union clients from NZ was in early with a $12,000 win bet for the All
Blacks at $1.22, also placing $5000 on them conceding the start.
The All Blacks are now $1.50 to win the Tri-Nations Series, ahead of
Australia at $3.10 and South Africa at $8.50. With no tries scored in
the first match, Des Howlett and Chris Latham are still favourites at
$10 to score most tries in the Series, but we have cut the odds on South
Africa’s Dean Hall and Breyton Paulse, both now $15 in from $23.
FORMULA
ONE
The
Ferrari’s make up the bulk of the market in this week’s French Grand
Prix. Michael Schumacher is
$1.60 ahead of Rubens Barrichello at $4, and now that it looks like
“team driving” may be finished, and also judging by Barrichello’s
barnstorming finish two weeks ago, maybe the two should be closer
together. We have already taken bets of 40,000 NOK ($AUD 8000) and $4000
for Schumacher at $1.60, and only a few small bets for Barrichello, so
it’s a good position to be in. Juan Pablo Montoya is next in line at
$6, but punters are tired of losing their money on him, while then
it’s out to $9 for Ralf Schumacher, who has only finished on podium
once this year. Ralf has attracted one bet of $1600 to say he will do so
again at $2.25, but we have taken more money for both David Coulthard
($2.50) and Kimi Raikkonen ($3.50).
The erratic Montoya has met with support at $2.50 to gain pole position.
Michael Schumacher is the favourite in this option at $2, and punters
can’t see beyond either of those obtaining the coveted number one
position on the grid.
GOLF
Tiger
Woods has had a few weeks off, and a bout of the flu, but still
maintains a short price to win this week’s British Open.
Tiger was $2.50 when betting opened a month ago, and in that time we
have taken two bets of $8000. We continue to see money for Woods, and
yesterday a devout fan of Tigers’ placed $20,000 at $2.75.
While Woods holds a stranglehold on the market, there are those out
there who think he can be beaten on foreign soil. As always, Phil
Mickelson ($16) and Ernie Els ($16) are the next two in the market, with
the latter backed to take out in excess of $80,000 in a series of bets.
Several of the European players have also met with heavy support.
Padraig Harrington and Colin Montgomerie have been backed to win
$200,000 at $34 by a Queensland client, Nick Price ($41), Darren Clarke
($41) and Nick Faldo ($67) have been backed to win $100,000 by a
Victorian client, and we have the mandatory stream of bets coming from
Denmark for Thomas Bjorn ($67), Soren Hansen and Anders Hansen, both at
$81.
Bjorn is $4 favourite to lead up a Scandinavian group, and a client from
Denmark has placed 20,000 DKK ($AUD 4000) on that option, while also
placing 25,000 DKK on Bjorn to beat Aussie Robert Allenby at $1.95.
Allenby is $5.50 to be top Australasian, but punters have shown a
preference for Michael Campbell at $4.25.
Nick Price is fast approaching the veteran stage, but a couple of
clients think he still has what it takes. Price is one of our worst to
win the Open, but we have also taken just over $20,000 in bets, mostly
from South Africa, for him to beat Jose Maria Olazabal in a head to
head. Sergio Garcia has been matched up with Retief Goosen, and we have
taken a $10,000 bet for the Spainiard at $1.80, while the match up of
Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els has surprisingly been the quietest of those
on offer.
All the daily pairings will be available with Centrebet, as well as our
new option on the performance of some players on a daily basis.
In the US, Jeff Sluman is the $9 favourite to win the BC Open in New
York. Sluman is defending champion, and also won last week’s Greater
Milwaukee Open, so this event looks tailormade for him. Punters have
been reluctant to take that price, but on face value he can’t be any
longer, and this is not a good field.
Fred Funk is second choice at $15, and he has been backed to win $12,500
by a client from NSW, who also backed Greg Chalmers ($34) to win the
same amount. Chalmers is on the verge of winning one of these events,
but we are giving one of our old friends, Paul Gow, a real hope of
winning the BC Open. Gow tied this event last year, only to lose in a
playoff with Sluman, and did have a top 20 finish two weeks ago.
In Chicago, Hale Irwin is the $3.25 favourite to win the SBC Senior
Open, with Bruce Fleisher the next in the market at $7.
SOCCER
Most of
our soccer ante posts have now been open for a few weeks, and naturally
the English Premier League is the focal point of punters attention.
Man United are favourites at $2.50, and we have already seen support at
that quote, but nothing from England. We have however taken a £3000
wager for Arsenal at $2.85, and although Arsenal have a “soft” early
draw, they will need it as the “Gunners” will be without Robert
Pires and winger Van Bronkhurst until Christmas with injury.
The signing of Terry Venebales as manager of Leeds had an immediate
reaction to the market with Leeds coming into $15 from $17, and have
been backed to take out close to $100,000.
Splitting Leeds and the two favourites is Liverpool at $4. Liverpool are
our tip to win the league, and if you cast your minds back to just
before Christmas, Liverpool were odds on to win, but encountered some
injuries which cost them any hope.
Newcastle ($31) have also been backed to take out big money with us, and
while they surprised many last season, they have the added burden of the
Champions League on their plate.
Of the outsiders, Scandinavian punters have jumped into Tottenham ($67),
Man City ($101) and Birmingham ($801). The last two named sides have
been promoted from division one, and face a very tough assignment
whereas Tottenham’s form was OK against the lower sides, but they
continuously struggled against the top sides.
The Scottish League looks a match race between Celtic ($1.55) and
Rangers ($2.20). Celtic won the title last season, and we have already
taken a £6000 bet for them, and only a few small bets for Rangers.
In Germany, the first move has been for Bayern Munich, now into $1.90
after opening at $2. Some new German clients who came aboard during the
World Cup took the $2, and while Bayern could be without World Cup
goalie Oliver Khan for the start of the season, they do look the team to
beat.
The big question facing supporters of the Spanish League is will Real
Madrid be more focused on the Champions League then Primera Liga? We
think that question alone is enough to make the $2 favourites some risk,
and while we have taken one bet of $7000, we haven’t been inundated at
that quote. There has been a sprinkling of interest in Barcelona, in
from $4 to $3.75. We are going to stick with Valencia to provide at
upset at $5.50.
FCK are our opening $1.75 favourites to win the Danish title, but it
looks as though Danish clients differ slightly from our view. Brondby
($2.50), have been the popular side, including a 30,000 DKK bet, and we
have also seen support for OB ($35) and AGF ($50) to upset the two big
names.
The Norwegian Tippeligaen returns this week after three weeks off, so we
took the opportunity to update title betting there. Rosenborg, are still
off the pace, but Norwegians’ think they will storm home. Last week, a
client from Oslo placed 125,000 NOK ($AUD 25,000) on Rosenborg at $2,
and now we find money coming at $1.85. Lyn ($4) are narrow second elects
just ahead of Molde ($4.25), and this week we also took a bet of 8000
NOK for Odd ($8) to win.
Odd can do us a big favour by beating Molde on Saturday. Molde ($1.75)
are one of our worst results for this weekend. Some big bets, including
one of 68,000 NOK, have come for Molde, but one thing in our favour is
that they were very ordinary when beaten 4-1 by Brann last start.
The other team we are looking to fail this week is of course Rosenborg.
They have been backed from $1.60 into $1.50 to beat Viking, a move which
has included two bets of 50,000 NOK. All the favourites this round play
at home, and many punters have coupled up all to win, so we are
desperately looking for “away” wins.
Danish Soccer resumes next week, so we will have a complete list of
Scandinavian soccer to fill the void before European competitions start.
© 2002 OnThePunt.com.au - All rights reserved
|
