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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
There wasn't much cheering at Centrebet at the weekend as six of the seven NRL favourites won - five of those covering the spread. Another of those all too familiar "last minute" tries to the Bulldogs inflicted the first major blow when the Bulldogs defeated the Roosters 24-12. We had already taken several big bets for the Bulldogs to win ($1.40) and also conceding 7½ points start, and although Luke Phillips and Bryan Fletcher were late inclusions into the Roosters side, we still couldn't keep punters off the Bulldogs. The largest bet, $30,000 from a Sydney client, lobbed just hours before the start for the Bulldogs to beat the handicap, and it was very disappointing to see the Roosters let in that late try as they looked a shade unlucky not to be ahead. The Brisbane Broncos demolished Wests 46-14 on Saturday evening, also relieving us of a bit of cash. The Broncos were unbackable at $1.05, but we took two $10,000 bets at -24½ ($1.90) and another $30,000 wager at -25½ just prior to the game getting under way. The same client also placed $30,000 on the game total exceeding 50 points at $1.85, and it was painfully obvious we were in trouble even before half time. The 34-18 win by North Qld over Canberra saw us stage a mini fightback. The Raiders were extremely popular following a big victory over Newcastle, and while the biggest losing bet on Canberra was only $11,000 at $1.70, we saw lots of smaller bets that amounted to a very healthy total when we punched in the result. Of the three games on Sunday, only one went our way. The handicap for Newcastle moved from -16½ out to -19½ when Penrith's Ryan Girdler pulled out. Significant bets of $17,000 (-17½) and $10,000 (-18½) were placed on the Knights, and they looked in deep trouble when trailing 10-0 early in the match. Newcastle rallied, and although they went on to win 38-22, it wasn't a true indication of how well Penrith played, and also wasn't enough for the handicap takers. New Zealand's 26-10 victory over Parramatta was also a shocking result. Several late changes to the Parramatta side didn't help our cause any, but most of the damage had already been done following plenty of early trading on the Warriors. The last match was an enormous betting game, which went the way of Cronulla who pulled off an astounding 46-24 win. The Northern Eagles led 18-0 at half time, but you would have thought both sides swapped jumpers at the major break as Cronulla came out and piled on 46 points to six in the second half. The Sharks landed a winning bet of $40,000 at -5½ ($1.90) as well as $12,500 at -4½ points, but with the Eagles having such a fine record at Brookvale, we saw plenty come for them, led up by a bet of $8000 when they touched $2.50. This week, Parramatta look likely to have a full squad at home against Brisbane, a side that they have had a good record against in the past with seven wins from their past 10 meetings, and their last four in a row. Early money would indicate that that is how punters see it as we have had to turn the $2.30 for an Eels win into $2.25. They haven't won since round 13 against Brisbane but this is a huge game at home for them. A good betting battle looms on Saturday when Penrith host Melbourne. The Storm have found form, and still look a finals chance, which has led to early bets totaling close to $14,000 going on them conceding three points start. We aren't panicking just yet as Penrith did enough against Newcastle to suggest a win isn't far away, and if Craig Gower does manage to take the field, they could take the points. In the form Cronulla are currently displaying with six straight wins it would be a brave man who would suggest they won't beat a 23½ point handicap against Souths. We have a big Sharks fan who doesn't mind lumping $20-30,000 on the Sharks conceding start, so although we have already taken two $5000 bets for Souths, it's still there! Newcastle at home to the Bulldogs on Sunday is probably one of the "games of the year". The Bulldogs continue to win, although there have been a couple of scares over the past few weeks, but of course the Knights showed in Canberra two weeks ago that they aren't bulletproof either. It's a big game for both, and while Newcastle are slightly favoured at $1.75, we expect big support for both the Knights and the Bulldogs at $2. Already bets of 10,000 and $5000 have gone on the Bulldogs at $2. We also have a market on when, if so, that the Bulldogs break the record of 19 consecutive wins. After amassing 15 straight wins, we have priced up the Bulldogs at $5.50 to break the record, and if punters think they will fall in the meantime, they can bet which round they fall. Cronulla continue to firm up in title
betting, now into $15 after 330-1 was available in May. At the other end
of the scale a Sydney client would have been ruing the win by North Qld
last week. He placed $8000 last Friday on the Cowboys to win the wooden
spoon. That victory has seen them "blow" in the betting, out
to $3.75, and now Penrith and Souths are co-favourites at $2.50. Souths
appear to have no hope of winning this week, whereas the other two can,
so we contemplate seeing money for Souths. Four favourites delivered the goods for punters in the AFL last week, with three of those winning on Sunday. Nathan Buckley was out of Friday night's match against Richmond, which probably gave the Tigers a remote hope of winning. After opening at $3.45, a constant stream of money from Victoria saw that price cut to $3.15. A South Australian placed two bets totaling $14,000 on the Tigers with 25½ points start, and he would have been entitled to be opening the champagne when Richmond raced to a 27 point lead in the first quarter. The conditions were shocking, but just to show how bad Richmond are, the Tigers only scored 21 points after quarter time to be thrashed by 40 points. Two big results on Saturday were provided by the Kangaroos and Geelong. On past form the Roos' had to be given a good chance of beating Port, and that's exactly what happened. Their 29 point win disposed of a stack of multiple bets through Port ($1.53), as well as a bet of $17,500 placed on them to cover a 14 point handicap, placed by a Sydney client. Essendon have been showing signs for a while now that there are some chinks in the armour, and when you consider that their best player over the past three rounds has been a player returning from skull fractures, its little wonder not many are interested in the $11 for the Bombers to go top. Essendon opened at $1.57 in last week's match against Geelong, and quickly firmed into $1.50 on top of three separate $10,000 bets, two from Victoria, the other from NSW. We were looking for Geelong money at $2.50, but when the rumours began circulating that Dustin Fletcher would be a late withdrawal from Essendon, we thought that was enough to tilt the scales, and turned the Cats "off". Geelong were equal favourites at $3.50 to win the wooden spoon prior to the first round, and while they continue to win, they still have detractors. We now have them at $16 to win the flag, and can't really see any reason in chasing any money out of them. Sunday was a black day! Bets of $10,000 and $6600 went on Sydney with 38½ points start against Brisbane (lost by 38), and we stuck our neck out in the other two matches taking on St Kilda and Adelaide. Both won by 43 points, and there were several big winners who coupled up those two victors with Brisbane. It doesn't get much easier this week as there are five closely priced matches that could go either way. Hawthorn are $2.10 to beat Brisbane at the MCG on Saturday, and now that Shane Crawford has been given the green light to play, we think that Brisbane can be beaten. We have taken nearly $9000 in early bets for the Lions at $1.72, but there has also been money for the Hawks, so it is possible that Brisbane might get to better odds. West Coast need a win when they take on Collingwood at Subiaco on Saturday. While the "bubble burst" for the Eagles last week, this is a day match, and we are tipping the Eagles to get the four points. Collingwood are slight outsiders at $1.95, but as yet haven't had too many admirers. Backing Geelong at "odds on" hasn't had a lucrative history, and that's the only problem when they take on Adelaide at Skilled Stadium on Sunday. The Cats are $1.55, and we have already taken bets of $7000 and $5000 (twice), but Crows supporters have also bet that their side can end the Cats' winning run. The three shortest priced favourites of the round, Essendon, Sydney and Port, were all beaten last week, but you wouldn't know it! Punters have lined up to couple all three up in multiples, with $10,000 bets also going on Sydney and Port to beat the handicap, -26½ and -25½ respectively. Port and Brisbane are co-favourites at $2.80 to win the premiership, ahead of Collingwood at $6. With those three having been beaten over the past fortnight, all has gone quiet. Brisbane have a reasonable run home, so forward Alistair Lynch is the new favourite to win the Coleman Medal, even though he is one goal behind leaders David Neitz and Kent Kingsley. Lynch ($2.50) is on 48 goals, and has hardly had a bet placed on him as he has been a victim of chronic fatigue syndrome for several seasons. While it's not going to be a stellar year for forwards, Lynch deserves something like the Coleman Medal as his illness has cost him countless games over the years. In Brownlow news, Ben Cousins is still
the $4 favourite, and those that have stuck with Shane Crawford ($5)
would be breathing a sigh of relief that he is still eligible. The big
mover over the past few weeks has been Geelong's Stephen King, now into
$7 third favourite. The deceptive All Blacks made it two wins from two starts in this year's Tri-Nations when 21 point winners over South Africa on Saturday night. The number of bets for both sides was about level, but bigger punters brought about our downfall when the Kiwi's covered the handicap of 12½ points. In contrast to the previous week when all our Kiwi clients wanted to be on Australia, this time they were back to their parochial best, landing big winning bets of $12,000 and $10,000 outright ($1.22), as well as bets of $10,000 (twice) and $5000 to beat the "line". The score certainly didn't reflect how close this match was, and the aggressive Springboks will get a chance to put it to the Aussie forwards at the Gabba this week. Historically, the Wallabies have always
had a problem disposing of South Africa, and with the Springbok
management making a big deal out of the Ben Tune affair, we think this
match might be closer than a lot of people think. Australia are $1.20 to
win with South Africa at $4.25, but the early interest has been in the
handicap, which is 11½ points start. We have taken a few small bets for
South Africa, but most are predicting an easy Wallaby victory, including
one English punter who has placed £4000 on Australia at -11½ points. Supporters of Kimi Raikkonen, and there are plenty of them, would no doubt be feeling a little sorry for themselves after the "Flying Finn" made a costly mistake that cost him certain victory in last weeks French Grand Prix. Raikkonen had met with solid support at $26, and after qualifying, he was backed to take out another $30,000 at $11. He was still able to hang onto second position however, and along with third placed David Coulthard, were the two people most wanted to be on to occupy a podium position. We had more dramas at the start of the race when Rubens Barrichello failed to take his place in the field. Some very fortunate punters, one with a bet of $3000 at $1.60, had their money refunded on a head to head option of Barrichello to beat Montoya, as for the purposes of head to head betting, bets only stand if cars are on the starting grid after the warm up lap. Although Michael Schumacher wrapped up the Driver's Championship last week, we maintain he will pull out all stops to win the German Grand Prix on his home soil. The German is $1.60, we haven't taken any big bets for him, and that suits us fine! Juan Pablo Montoya ($5) has been backed to win $16,000, and Raikkonen's fans have come back to take the $13 on offer. As far as finishing on the podium is concerned, Raikkonen has been best backed at $2.75, and we have found a $2500 bet for Ralf Schumacher at $2.65, and while he will be eager to also perform well in front of a home audience, his form this season has been woeful. Montoya has grabbed five of the last
six pole positions, and punters are finally beginning to wake up that
Montoya is the quickest driver, he's just no good in a field! This week
is the first time he has been favourite to qualify quickest ($2.25), a
price that a few have found attractive, but Michael Schumacher is in
more demand. A German client has placed the largest of those bets €2000,
also investing €200 on brother Ralf at $10. Both Ralf ($10) and David
Coulthard ($15) have been backed to take out $15,000 in our
"fastest lap" option, so not everybody is of the opinion that
Michael Schumacher is a "good thing". Schumacher has failed to
finish in the German Grand Prix for the past two years, but now that the
pressure of winning the drivers championship is behind him, we think he
will rectify that statistic and win. The British Open went to second favourite Ernie Els, and while Els is normally one of worst results, we recorded a good win on the event as the South African was virtually unwanted after the tournament started, and the placings behind him couldn't have been better. Naturally a win by either Thomas Levet ($201) or Steve Elkington ($126) would have been a monster result, but it's hard to complain when the second choice wins, and so does Centrebet! One Sydney client who has a history of backing Els was the largest winner after placing $2000 each way at $16, a win of $37,500. Most of those who had been the most sought after before the start were a winning chance at some stage, but what about Monty? A Queenslander backed the Scotsman to win $200,000 at $34, and after a second round course record of 64, he staged the worst turnaround in Open history to have a third round of 84, putting an end to any hope he had. The conditions were part of the reason why we couldn't give Ernie Els away before the last round. A high profile player, two shots in front coming into the last round, should have seen punters all over the $2 we posted, but in fact we got more out of Shigeki Maruyama ($3000 at $16) than we did out of "big Ernie". This week, Ernie and Tiger have the week off. Although those two are out of action, a very good field has still been assembled for the TNT Dutch Open. Padraig Harrington is our $6.50 favourite, but punters have kept away from the Irishman, who was backed for a stack last week. Most of the bets have been targeted at Retief Goosen ($8) and Justin Rose ($13), but a Victorian golf client has backed Paul McGinley ($67) Ian Poulter ($67), Andrew Coltart ($81) and Pierre Fulke ($81) to win $15,000. For those that like to follow the path of history, there are a couple of strong formlines in the Dutch Open. Bernard Langer ($21) is a three time winner, in 1984, 1992 and last year, and was second in 2000. Stephen Leaney won in 2000, and also won in 1998, and is rated a $17 chance after a forward showing in the early stages of the British Open. In the US, punters have also gone wide looking for the winner of the John Deere classic. We have Fred Funk and Charles Howell favourites at $18 ahead of last year's winner David Gossett at $21. A Queensland client has backed Kirk Tripplett ($41), Steve Lowery ($34), Chris Riley ($41) and Neil Lancaster ($67) to win $20,000 each way, a South Australian is on Cameron Beckman ($41), David Frost ($81) and Chad Campbell ($101) to win $10,000 each way, and we have also seen money for a few other outsiders including Brian Henninger ($101) and Cliff Kresge ($101). The ladies will be in action in the Sybase Big Apple Classic. It's an all star cast, with Annika Sorenstam favourite at $2.50. Karrie Webb is second choice at $8, and we have already recorded a $1500 each way bet against Korean Se Ri Pak at $11. Others to meet with support have been Laura Davies ($26), Beth Daniel ($67) and Michele Redman at $81. On the Seniors front, Tom Watson is the
likely winner of the British Open at $2.65, while Hale Irwin is $5
favourite to win the Fleet Boston Senior Open. Celebrity Big Brother is open for betting, and as most of the "celebrities?" are known to the Australian public, we have already taken plenty of bets. Sara-Marie Fedele, the buxom blonde from Big Brother One, opened the favourite at $2.50, and straight away was backed into $2.25. It makes sense as she probably has the least to lose, and a lot of people think she was unlucky not to win last time. All housemates have now had bets placed on them, but one thing that has surfaced is that it seems as though Anthony Mundine is back in the good books. His odds have halved ($9 - $5), and there has been a good push from Victorian punters for Mundine, who by all reports showed his good side when he fought in the Garden State two weeks ago. Aussie beauty Imogen Bailey might have
had 5 million hits on her internet site, but hopefully those 5 million
visitors don't get the urge to back her to win Big Brother. She has
already came into $4 after opening at $6. The two that look likely to go
in the first eviction are drag queen Vanessa Wagner and Adriana Xenides,
and that betting will open Friday. Labour party leader Helen Clarke might think she can get at least 61 of the 120 seats available to govern without Coalition help in New Zealand, but punters, the best barometer, are voting with their $ to say that won't happen. The election will happen this Saturday, and while it's a forgone conclusion that Clark will be swept back into power, the tip that she would gain absolute majority now appears hopeless. The recent "Corngate" saga
has seen the popularity of the Labour Party slip. The option on the
winning margin being 61 seats or more opened at $3.25, but has
"blown" out to $6, attracting on a few small bets. Under 61
opened at $1.25, at which price we took four separate $2000 bets from
New Zealand. The newspapers in New Zealand predicted this was likely to
happen so we cut the price to $1.10, taking another $4000 bet at that
price. Now it's $1.06, and experience tells me that it will definitely
be under 61 seats. Rosenberg's shock 2-0 loss at home to Viking on Monday was not only bad news for those who backed Rosenborg from $1.60 into $1.45 to win the game, but also those who backed Rosenborg to win the title. While it's dangerous to ever write off a champion side, Rosenborg are now 14 points behind the leaders. Last week we made mention of several big bets that went on Rosenborg during the break, but this week they are $2.75, and baring for them being a big liability for Centrebet, would certainly be much bigger odds. We have taken a 20,000 NOK ($AUD 4000) for Lyn this week at $2.60, also seeing lots of bets for Viking ($6.50) and ODD ($7). All in all, it was a very bad round for Tippeligaen fans. Molde ($1.80 - $1.67) were held to a 0-0 draw by Odd, Lillestrom ($2.35 - $2.25) were beaten 1-0 by Lyn, and in fact no favourite was able to win! One punter did go for a couple of upsets however, placing 50,000 NOK on each Brann ($2.50) and Stabaek ($2.65) who both won. There is no sign of Norwegians discounting the winning chances of Rosenborg this week. This might be the season decider when they travel to Lyn, but still we get loads of bets for Rosenborg at $2.10. Viking also have a big game against Molde. Already over 80,000 NOK has come for Viking ($2.15), and it looks certain they will start shorter. Danish soccer resumes this week, and title favourites FCK have been best backed in round one. FCK opened at $1.80 against Viborg, but that was quickly taken in a series of bets, including one of 60,000 DKK. Brondby ($2.10) are away to Silkeborg, but in a first, more bets have gone on FCK to win their game than Brondby. FCK are $1.75 to win the title with Brondby at $2.50. OB ($35) and AGF ($45) have been backed to take out close to 400,000 DKK, but as yet we haven't seen any big money for the two favourites. There has been lots of small interest in betting on the first coach to be replaced in the upcoming season. Poul Erik Andreason is favourite at $3.50, with best backed being Christian Anderson ($5) and Soren Kusk ($10). Every coach except Ove Pederson ($10) has had bets placed on them, even Danish legend Michael Laudrup ($18) who has taken over the reins at Brondby. Finally, the Commonwealth Games start
this weekend. As usual, start lists have been hard to come by. We expect
to cover all the swimming and athletics events in some form
(particularly head to heads), and will also cover hockey, and netball
matches, as well as some boxing and rugby 7's finals. Everything is
dependant on how much information we can find, so keep an eye on our web
site.
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