|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Seven of the eight Aussie Rules favourites winning ensured it was a very black weekend for bookies. The only piece of good news came when the West Coast Eagles failed to cover a 26½ handicap in the last game of the round, which would have meant we faced a record payout for a single round of AFL. There were dozens of big winners for the weekend, but a South Australian punter 'scooped the pool', winning close to $200,000 in one multiple bet. He coupled up Essendon (-13½), Port Adelaide and Collingwood both to win, rounding the bet off with Brisbane to beat a 28½ point handicap against Richmond, which they did. The outlay was $33,000, and it was only Brisbane in the first half of their match who raised any concerns. We keep harping on the importance of getting 'Friday night favourites' beaten as they are always the best backed side for the weekend, and you only have to have a look at the fluctuations for Essendon last week to see what we are on about. The Bombers opened the week at $1.53, before starting at $1.38. There were no major team changes, just sheer weight of money. In fact, when Geelong touched $2.90, a Victorian punter placed a total of $25,000 on the Cats, and we still were desperate for him to win! Essendon landed numerous large bets, with the biggest of those being $33,000 at -13½ points start. Melbourne's win over St Kilda was a little bit of relief after a late bet of $20,000 came for the Saints to win ($1.60) from a Sydney punter. Unfortunately, there wasn't a lot of money channeled through St Kilda in multiple bets, with most of the betting public opting out of this game. They were right on the mark as Melbourne, who had been copping a barrage of criticism in the media, improved their own weight to win. Collingwood's 43 point victory over the Bulldogs got favourite backers in the right frame of mind for an assault on the bookies on Sunday. There was no stop to the money for Collingwood, including three $20,000 bets at $1.53, $1.50 and $1.48. They were also coupled up with Brisbane to beat Richmond, with many also throwing in Adelaide and the West Coast on Sunday. Peter Everitt's failure to pass a fitness test saw money for Fremantle to beat Hawthorn in Tasmania on Sunday, but even though the Hawks were without their star ruckman, they scored an emphatic five goal win to maintain their climb up the ladder. Hawthorn are another side who have been battered around by the media, but showed with their last two wins that they were back in form. The $1.78 was taken by a few bets of $2000, and when they touched $1.85 on the day, a bet of $6000 came from Victoria. The late money however was all for Freo, including one bet of $20,000 at $1.95, and it was obvious after a few minutes that the Dockers were in trouble with the conditions. Maybe that is the way the Victorians can beat the West Australian sides as the West Coast had to pull out all stops to beat a gallant Kangaroos side by 9 points. There was an absolute fortune in multiples still 'alive' into the West Coast to win, as well as a multiple bet worth $132,000 if they covered the handicap of 26½ points. If that wasn't enough, we also accepted another bet of $30,000 on the Eagles at -26½, and that was after footage from the ground showed how much surface water there was laying around. In terrible conditions, the Kangaroos put up a brave fight to give us a chance of winning the lot with two minutes left on the clock when only three points behind, but we can be thankful that the weather played a part in the Eagles not covering the spread, which would have been an absolute disaster. Seven of the eight winners from last week are favourites to win again this week, with the only exception being Sydney, who are $1.57 to beat the West Coast in Sydney. The stampede has already began to get on some of this week’s favourites, with Essendon being first cab off the rank on Friday night. The $1.40 for an Essendon win has been sought after, and early bets of $20,000 and $10,000 have come for an Essendon/Adelaide double at $1.68. St Kilda are going to get to a pretty respectable quote (currently $2.90), and we haven't completely given up hope on them as they do play well at the Telstra Dome. We thought that the opening $1.62 for Brisbane to beat Fremantle may have attracted some business, but in fact the first $3000 bet on the game was all for the Dockers at $2.25. Later the same day the Kangaroos return from the West to try and break the 'hoodoo' associated with that trip. We were pretty keen to get something out of the Roos, but even a big 'drift' from $2.30 out to $2.55 hasn't attracted any bites. Collingwood have been cut to $1.50, but while that hasn't been as a result of betting activity, if we don't see some money for the Kangaroos shortly, that price will be cut again. Sydney v West Coast is an interesting match up on Sunday. The Eagles had a 'gut buster' in boggy conditions last Sunday, and we think that they will struggle on the smaller SCG, particularly if the weather is good. This is shaping as a good betting game with both sides layable. Already, two $5000 bets have been placed on the Swans at $1.57, so if anything, they may start shorter. On form, Port Adelaide deserve the tag of red hot favourites ($1.36) against Geelong on Sunday, but this is the type of situation where Geelong quite often turn things around and cause an upset. That has been reflected in the betting as Port are one favourite who at this stage have been hard to sell. RUGBY LEAGUE The NRL results from last week were much kinder to Centrebet than the Aussie Rules, when only four favourites saluted, with two of those covering the handicaps. As we said last week, it was a shame that Brisbane had to line up against the Roosters only two days after State of Origin. The match deserved top billing on a weekend well away from the Origin series, but to their credit, both sides put up a fabulous display. The Roosters started favourites at $1.70 (in from $1.90), attracting a bet of $22,000 at $1.80 a few hours before the game started. Brisbane have always performed well when they shouldn't and we continued to see money for them as they drifted out, but it was the Roosters who most thought would win. In a dour struggle, Brisbane prevailed 10-8. North Queensland were one of the best backed sides of the round, but a couple of crucial injuries left the Cowboys short on the paddock, and short at the final result. Cronulla won this game 34-28, but tried very hard to lose after leading 22-8 at half time. Cronulla landed a winning bet of $20,000 with 7½ points start ($1.90), but apart from that, it was all for the Cowboys. The handicap moved two full points during the week, and there was also a 'win' bet of $25,000 at $1.40. Melbourne Storm were another who were similarly backed in their match against the Wests Tigers. After two bets of $4000 for the Tigers on Wednesday with 9½ points start, we battled to strike another bet for the Tigers. Even though this wasn't a 'live' televised game, punters were keen to bet up, including two bets of $20,000 conceding the start. Those bets fell just short of the mark when Melbourne scored an unimpressive 16-8 win. Also on Saturday night, St George Illawarra had three tries on the board before Manly had worked out what they were doing on the field and with a start like that, the Dragons were always going to be hard to run down. Manly got within 6 points in the second half, but two late tries to the Dragon's saw them win 42-28. A bet of $20,000 and two of $10,000 were placed on the Dragons at $1.80, but some of that was offset by a wager of $17,500 for Manly from a rural NSW punter. I know we have said it before, but that is definately it with Parramatta. Everyone wanted to be on Newcastle to beat Parra, as well as beat an 8 point handicap, and with so many Knights players backing up, we again gave the Eels 'one last chance'. We probably got what we deserved (at least in the minds of punters) when Newcastle beat the Eels by 14 points, 30-16. The only excitement from where we were sitting was that we hung onto a bet of $8500 that was placed on the game score being over 46½ points, but even that came close to being a loser. In the other two matches, the results were profitable, but Souths came mighty close to being one of our 'pin-up' sides. Bets came thick and fast for New Zealand to cover the handicap, which moved from an opening -6½ to -9½ on game day. The Warriors were already a hefty liability in our book, but the very last bet of $25,000 at -9½ ($1.75) made them one of the biggest 'stands' of the season so far. There was much merriment in the Centrebet office when Souths led 24-6 early in the second half, but when New Zealand came back to lead by 6 points with time left on the clock, it looked like we were going to have another story of 'the one that got away'. Just when that looked a possibility, Souths scored to take the game to extra time, when a Stacey Jones field goal saw the Warriors edge past Souths 31-30. There were numerous large bets through multiples for New Zealand to win, as well as a win bet of $15,800 at $1.33, and we, and no doubt those punters also, are still trying to work out how the Rabbitoh's lost. In the other match, Penrith confirmed themselves as premiership material when they won again, beating the Bulldogs 28-26. John Lang has done a tremendous job with the Panthers after last season, and we have them at $10 to take the major prize. This is possible the most open season ever, which means that title betting will be quiet until getting near finals time as too much will depend on injury and where teams will finish on the ladder. This week, there was an immediate reaction to most games as soon as betting opened Wednesday morning. Penrith, the side who have delivered us so many favours recently, attracted bets of $10,000, $8000 and $6600 as soon as we posted the $1.70 for them to beat Cronulla, then another $12,000 arrived at $1.68. Canberra were another side backed, with just under $25,000 coming for the Raiders to beat a 7½ point handicap over Melbourne before we moved it to -8½, which saw another $5000 come in. Friday night's big match between St George Illawarra and Brisbane has also seen plenty of early business, but in this case it has come for both sides. The Bronco's are the fav's at $1.65, and we took two bets of $10,000 for Brisbane at -3½, but since then the betting has turned in favour of the Dragons. The other big match of the round will be on Sunday when the Bulldogs host Newcastle. There were differing opinions in the Centrebet office as to who should be favourites, with some pointing out that the Bulldogs haven't really been travelling that well. That is fair enough, but Newcastle also had some sloppy moments against Parramatta, and they are away from home, so the Bulldogs got the nod, and were installed at $1.70. The first two bets, $6000 and $5000, were for the Knights with 2½ points start ($1.90), but since then we have noticed that the bulk of bets has been for the Bulldogs. RUGBY UNION The big question still remains - who is going to win the World Cup? The results of last weekend haven't really got us any closer to knowing the answer, and if anything have only made the quest to find the Cup winner more enthralling. The All Blacks defeated France 31-23, but I am sure the French didn't lose too many fans from a match that they could have won. As this wasn't their strongest side, the betting saw New Zealand go in as very warm 22 point favourites. Bets of $15,000 and $12,000 came from New Zealand for the All Blacks conceding the start, and we also took several $5000 bets from Australians on the same handicap. There was a difference in the handicaps between ourselves and our English counterparts, which saw money come for the French with the start, but when news filtered out of the side they were going to field, the flow of money came to an abrupt end. As soon as that match finished, interest in the South Africa v Argentina game grew rapidly, and once again, although the favourites (South Africa), won, they failed to cover the spread, which gave us a good result. Both sides made eight changes from their respective matches the previous week, and while the Springboks' changes were more about trying a new blend, most of the changes the Pumas made were forced upon them through injury. This was interpreted by punters as a big minus, and there was any amount of support for South Africa conceding 10½ points start. The largest bet of $11,000 came from a South African client who we hadn't heard from for quite a while, but we expect that there will be a lot more activity from that area with the Tri-Nations coming up. South Africa were extremely lucky to win this match, getting up to win by one point. New Zealand remain our World Cup favourites at $2.40, ahead of England ($3.25) and Australia at $4. France are next in line at $9, and then out to $14 for the Springboks, and while the form of both of these sides might currently be questionable, it is worth pointing out that each could have a very favourable draw. MOTOR RACING The Williams crew will be going into this weeks French Grand Prix at Magny Cours brimming with confidence after a 1-2 finish in the European Grand Prix last weekend, but a few things went the right way for Williams in that race. Kimi Raikkonen was on track to win until his engine blew up, much to the displeasure of his Finnish fans who had supported him to win the race, and also to finish on the podium. Raikkonen was one of our worst results, and although we found little support for eventual winner Ralf Schumacher to win at $8, there was one bet of €3000 placed on him from Germany to finish on the podium at $2.75. One thing in Williams' favour in France is that they have claimed pole position the last two years, with Montoya in 2002 and Ralf Schumacher the previous year. That has seen both drivers attract money at $6 to do the same again, but Michael Schumacher is still a short priced $2.10 to grab the premier position. With Schumacher having won the last two French Grand Prix's, bringing his total to six, there has been solid support to say he can do so again, mostly coming from Germany. Some of the bets include €3000 and $4000 at $1.90, but Raikkonen is the one who will be our worst result. The 'Flying Finn' has been backed to take out just under $25,000 in early trading at $7, and nearly half that amount again to finish amongst the placings at $2.15. He is going to be very hard to beat as he was the quickest driver all through last weeks qualifying sessions and the race, but have the Williams crew fixed the problem that saw him retire on lap 25 when the race was his? That is the big question. GOLF Punters were on the ball in last weeks St Jude Classic as favourite David Toms ($11) and second pick Nick Price ($13) fought out the finish from Bob Estes and Swedes Frederik Jacobson and Richard Johnson. Toms became the seventh multiple winner on tour this year, joining the likes of Woods, Els and Singh, which is in stark contrast to last year when eighteen 1st time winners saluted. Other well supported starters, Begay and Toledo showed little and it was up to Swedes Jacobson and Johnson to challenge as first time winners, however neither were able to find the composure which separates winners from also runs. This week we head to Cog Hill Golf Club in Illinois for the 100th Western Open, an event steep in tradition, and it sees the return of Tiger Woods, who has been installed $4.25 favourite over multiple winners this season, Vijay Singh, $12, Mike Weir, $15, David Toms, $16 and US Open winner Jim Furyk also $15. It is event Woods has never won, and one which will prove onerous given the current form of this crop of players and doubts over Woods' suspect knee. Defending champion Jerry Kelly is $67 but given his recent form should struggle, while others expected to challenge include Justin Leonard, $2000 at $26 and Scott Verplank, $2000 at $41. The European tour saw Phillip Golding win his maiden event at his 201st outing as a professional in the Open de France. It was a long time coming for a player who has had to return to qualifying school on no less than sixteen occasions to keep his card, however a birdie on his final hole clinched a one shot victory over David Howell. Justin Rose proved again what a consistently good player he is by finishing in a tie for third with Australian Peter O'Malley, however the fact he is winless this season causes concern as to his composure over the closing holes. This week we head to Dublin for the European Open with defending champion Michael Campbell at $67, however his form in recent times is well below the New Zealanders best. Well supported have been Darren Clarke, $2000 at $15 and Thomas Bjorn, $2000 at $31. while expect forward showings from Colin Montgomerie, $19, Justin Rose, $13 and two time winner Lee Westwood at $67. On the LPGA tour we had another maiden tour winner when twenty-six year old Angela Stanford won the LPGA Shop-Rite Classic by three shots from a much improved Becky Morgan. Major winners Sorenstam, Inkster and Meunier Lebouc were not far off the make and appeared to be honing their skills for this week’s US Open held at Pumpkin Ridge Golf Club in Oregon. Defending champion Julie Inkster defeated Annika Sorenstam by two shots and were the only players to finish under par and this year should prove little different with Sorenstam, $2.50, Pak $9, Webb $16, Inkster $21 and Jones $23 the players to beat. ENTERTAINMENT Another eviction, another favourite. This time it was Jamie who was sent packing from the Gold Coast house where Australian Big Brother is being held, and again, not too many were surprised. As much as $2 was available for Jamie when betting opened on Tuesday, but a mixture of money and opinions forced that quote into $1.10 when betting closed on Friday. A bet of $4000 was placed on Jamie from a client in New South Wales at $1.20, and although he was evicted, Jamie only ended up 19 percentage points ahead of Vincent, this week’s favourite. It might be a hard way to win $20, but one punter placed $1000 on Vince to be evicted this week as soon as we posted him at a record 'short' price of $1.02. The polls are nearly identical to what they were when Joanne was evicted, and after she ended up with 76% of the vote, things don’t look good for Vincent's long term tenure in the house. We have had to ease out the price of Regina winning the major prize, while remaining favourite at $1.55. Chrissie is into $3.50 after being backed to win in excess of $10,000, and Daniel, the only housemate not up for eviction, has been backed to take out $4000, and is now $3, in from $3.50. This Saturday will see the 'running' of an event that gained Centrebet world-wide recognition last year when we took bets on it. The 'World Wife Carrying Championships' will be held in the Finnish village of Sonkajärvi. Champion ‘wife carrier’ Margo Uusorg is our favourite to win the unique event for the third time in four years. World record holder and pioneer of the ‘Estonian carry’ technique that revolutionised wife carrying in the same way that the Fosbury Flop took the high jumping world by storm, Estonian star Uusorg and his lightweight partner, Egle Soll, are our favourites at $2.10. He missed last year’s tournament due to a hamstring injury, and has a new partner this year. We hope he hasn’t had any domestic problems! A Finnish couple has not won one of its country’s most famous sports events since the husband and wife team of Jouni and Tiina Jussila won six years ago. We believe that Espoo’s Taisto Miettinen has a very good chance of ending Finland’s drought. He and his tiny partner, Eija Stenberg, are second favourites at $3. Not only are we taking bets on which couple wins the competition, but also accepting wagers on the time that it takes the triumphant team to negotiate the tricky course. The 253.5 metre track includes a water obstacle and one of the event’s few rules is that the carried woman must weigh at least 49 kilograms. TENNIS While Lleyton Hewitt and Andre Agassi have been bundled out of Wimbledon, it hasn't all been 'plain sailing' for bookies with favourites dominating matches daily. The 'run' of favourites winning has seen the betting turnover explode during the tournament as punters play their winnings up, and now that we are at the final's stage, instead of the betting beginning to quieten down as it usually does, it has gone the other way. Rain invariably intervenes during Wimbledon, and tonight (Thurs), two of the men’s quarter finals will resume, with the other two to follow. Mark Philippoussis was in deep trouble when he lost the first two sets, but has fought back to be level in the fifth set. The 'Scud' has been firing down his share of aces, and while there was a heap of support for him to win this match at $1.25, one of our Indian clients has had $12,000 on Alexander Popp at $4. Two Australians will be cheering for Philippoussis a little more than the rest of us. One, from Sydney, is on Philippoussis to win $100,000 from a $5000 outlay, while the other, from Queensland, is on him to win $60,000 at the same odds ($21). Favourite Andy Roddick hasn't been missed either when on Tuesday of this week a Sydney punter placed $25,000 on him at $2.40, and while the American is a raging $1.14 chance to make it to the semi's, he may have to face up to Roger Federer. Federer is more than capable of ousting Roddick except that he had back spasms in a match earlier in the week, so we will be watching eagerly tonight to see how he looks when he takes on Sjeng Schalken. Federer has been solid in betting at $1.30, but an English client has had £3000 on Schalken at $3.40. In the women’s, all four who were at the top of betting before the tournament are still there, but Serena Williams is now a better quote ($1.78) than at any stage during the two weeks. Sister Venus is the one punters have rallied behind, with two $5000 bets at $6, while Justine Henin-Hardenne was backed to win $50,000 at $7 by an Australian client early this week. We tried a new betting option on Tuesday night’s quarter finals, and it was an immediate hit. Punters could bet on which of the four 'outsiders' would win the most games, with Jennifer Capriati being the 'winner' with eleven. It's on again tonight, with Kim Clijsters $1.65 to win more games than Justine Henin-Hardenne at $2.15. There was much conjecture before the final price was arrived at, with some thinking that Clijsters can beat Venus Williams, which of course would produce a minimum 12 games, but also that Henin-Hardenne could stretch Serena to three sets. There are a myriad of ways of looking at this option, which makes it even better as a betting option. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
