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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES On paper, last week may have looked pretty ordinary from a bookies point of view when six of the eight AFL favourites won, but with only two of those covering the handicap, and Geelong's one point win over Port Adelaide, it was the turn of the books to fight back after a horrendous round the previous week. Things got off to a bleak start when both Essendon and Hawthorn recorded hollow victories. St Kilda were never in the race against Essendon, and the many who took the -16½ for Essendon (including one bet of $20,000), knew very early in the match that their money was safe. Essendon won by 68 points, and Hawthorn did a similar 'job' on the Bulldogs on Saturday, beating them by 71 points. The Hawks also landed a winning handicap bet of $20,000 (-18½), but there was a spattering of money to say that the Bulldogs would be competitive. The win of Fremantle over Brisbane was not only an entertaining game, but might also prove to be a crucial in the finals race. This was not only a fabulous match, it was also good from a betting perspective, and although there had been money for Freo all week at $2.25, a couple of late bets ($20,000 and $9,000), on Brisbane at -8½ meant that the Dockers were a good winner for Centrebet. Although they were coming home with the aid of a breeze, many people thought that Fremantle couldn't make up the 18 point leeway in the last quarter, at which stage we took a bet of $7000 for Brisbane at $1.28. Fremantle completely dominated the last quarter, but bad kicking (4.7) nearly cost them a win. Leigh Matthews might not agree that there is something in the 'hoodoo of the west', but punters do, and for the thirteenth week in a row they were right when the Kangaroos, returning from a defeat in the west, were hammered by Collingwood. We had the right idea 'chasing' the 'Roos out in the betting, but punters weren't very accommodating, with less than $8000 being placed on them as they drifted from $2.30 out to $2.70. On the other hand, we didn't really lay Collingwood until they got into $1.50, and a $20,000 bet at that quote was the start of a barrage of big bets that forced the price into $1.45, and the handicap of -14½ wasn't missed either. Three 'photo finishes' went against punters in the remaining matches. With the signs there that the public were going to continue to launch into the favourites, we added one point onto the handicap that Adelaide were conceding to Richmond (-27½), and what a lucky decision that was! The very last two bets on the game were $6000 and $20,000 on Adelaide at -28½, and the final score of 72-44 in favour of the Crows saw us get the money by half a point. If those bets had been placed six hours earlier, it would have gone the other way! Michael Gardiner's withdrawal from the Eagles side that had to play Sydney saw a betting frenzy take place on Sunday morning, but once again punters came off second best in a tight finish, even though the Swans won. All the money came for Sydney at the handicap, which was backed from -9½ into -14½ at kick off. The largest of those bets was $30,000 from a Victorian client at -11½ ($1.90), and the Swans were coasting to victory when up by 29 points at half time. Everybody thought that the fact that the Eagles had played in muddy conditions the previous week would start to take it's toll in the second half, but to their credit, the West Coast fought every inch of the way, cutting the deficit back to 8 points when the final siren went. Then it was Geelong's turn to do the 'bagmen' a favour. There was plenty of money, including one bet of $16,000, tied up on all three Sunday favourites to win. The other two, Sydney and Melbourne, did, so there was a lot riding on Port Adelaide, who had also been backed for a bundle in the game itself. They firmed from $1.36 into $1.28, with the handicap moving 4 full points. The largest bet there was $25,000 at -20½, and with Geelong holding a handy lead for most of the match, those bets looked safely in our keeping. But, it was Geelong, and when they came into the last quarter 14 points ahead, and kicking with the wind, it is little surprise that some were prepared to take the $1.90, but didn't they get a fright? We were in a position to take whatever we could at that price, and easily the biggest bet was $9000 from a Queenslander, so Geelong's Ben Graham is probably also this particular punters 'pin up boy' as well as ours following his match winning goal. This week, the round is dominated by six short priced favourites, and the signs are there early that all will probably start even shorter. Adelaide host an in-form Essendon on Friday night, and while we rate the Bombers highly here, two $10,000 bets for Adelaide at $1.60 forced an early price change, and money has continued to come. Essendon are out to $2.40, and it took two full days before we struck our first bet for them. The death of Collingwood legend Bob Rose has seen money come for the Magpies to beat Fremantle. There is probably no club that honours it's own like Collingwood, and while they already looked short enough at $1.33, we have been forced to reduce that quote to $1.28 following an avalanche of multiples all containing the Magpies. We think Richmond can break back into the winners circle this week at the expense of Geelong. Richmond were very good against Adelaide for three quarters last week, and Geelong might struggle coming off the 'high' of beating Port. As much as $1.85 was available for Richmond early this week, but that quickly evaporated. The Tigers are $1.65 with us, but once again even that looks like it won’t last long as there hasn't been anything for Geelong. Hawthorn's record in Brisbane is poor, but they have now won four in a row, and Brisbane are returning from Perth where they try and become the first side this year to win the following week. That mix makes for a very interesting game on Sunday. Brisbane are $1.33, and a few punters agree with coach Lee Matthews, ignoring the 'hoodoo' talk. One of those has taken the big step of placing $11,000 on the Lions conceding 25 points start, but we have also noticed money for Hawthorn as well. Should be a very interesting tussle. In Brownlow news, Hawthorn's Shane 'Hank' Crawford has been the big mover following a possible fourth 'best on ground' performance last week. The Hawks captain has been slashed to $6, and he joins Collingwood captain Nathan Buckley, who also had a 'blinder' last week, on the second line of betting. Michael Voss remains favourite at $4, but for the fourth game in a row, it's likely that the Lions captain didn't get any votes. RUGBY LEAGUE Penrith have now won 12 games this season, and if anybody doubted whether the Panthers were the 'real deal', then that should have been answered following a clinical 20-0 win over Cronulla at the weekend. We reported last week that there had been heavy backing for the Panthers as soon as betting opened at $1.70, and that continued all the way down to $1.50. All together, there were four separate bets of $20,000 placed on Penrith to either win, or cover a 3½ point handicap, and there were also several $10,000 wagers for them. This ranks the Panthers v Cronulla match as one of the years worst results, but while Penrith grow in stature with punters each week, they continue to ignore them in premiership betting. As it stands, we can't see much point in giving silly odds for them to win just because there has been nothing to date, but on current form, the $9 seems attractive, but punters disagree. While that was a bad game for us, we did have some of the punters funds to play with after one of our best ever results on Friday night when the Dragons beat Brisbane 32-16. Early money had been for Brisbane at $1.65, but strangely when Michael De Vere and Andrew Gee were ruled out, the flow of money didn't stop. The Bronco's were already a shocking result when a Kiwi punter plonked $20,000 on them as players ran onto the field, and like Penrith, St George Illawarra ($11) must now be seriously treated as a title contender. One point of interest was that when Channel Nine decided to show the match 'live' before crossing to the tennis, betting activity went through the roof when the 'pre match' came on, so it's pretty obvious what the fans want! The form of the New Zealand Warriors has been 'patchy' at best this season, but I have to admit that we did think they would beat the Cowboys on Saturday night, and we were more than happy to be wrong! The Warriors were the target of a last minute plunge in this match, including two $20,000 bets (one from New Zealand) for them to beat a 2½ point handicap ($ 1.90), but the Cowboys played 80 minutes of football for a change, beating the Kiwi's 30-10. Just on the Cowboys, recent bad luck, close finishes, on top of a heap of injuries, have all gone against the North Queensland side's quest to make their first finals series, and although they are probably going to just miss out, they are definately a side of the future. On Sunday, two of the three favourites won, but Canberra's loss to Melbourne saw Centrebet come out on the right side of the balance sheet for the day. The Raiders were coupled up in most multiple bets, and we also took a win bet of $13,750 at $1.33, as well as bets of $25,000 and $15,000 at the minus 9½ points. Canberra are now on a losing streak of three in a row, while Melbourne have crept into premiership betting at $34. Fortunately we got some money for Newcastle early in the week as they were impossible to lay on Sunday after O'Davis and Simpson pulled out. Two Sydney punters invested close to $30,000 between them on the Knights with two points start when betting opened, but come Sunday, it was all one way traffic for the Bulldogs, who eventually started four point favourites. The Bulldogs were always in the driver’s seat, but an impressive 30 points in the second half saw them run out easy winners, 48-14, and for the first time this year, the Bulldogs looked something like the Bulldogs of 2002. The State of Origin series may well be decided, but the third game is in the news due to Queensland's failure to again bypass Rhys Wesser. This looked a good opportunity for the Maroon's to be a little creative, but they have stuck with the same names. Naturally this match will be nowhere near as busy as the first two, but in early action there is a trend towards Queensland, possibly due to the series having already been won by NSW. The opening $2.40 has been taken, along with three $2000 bets for QLD with 4½ points start, but we think that the Blues will be just as keen to make a clean sweep of the series. Today we accepted a bet of $30,000 for NSW at $1.58, which will ensure they start solid favourites. All the Origin players will be missing from this weekends round, but the inclusion of Willie Mason and Braith Anasta into the NSW team has swelled the chances of Brisbane getting the two points against the Bulldogs on Friday. Before that, Brisbane would have been rank outsiders, but those changes gives them a glimmer of hope. The Bronco's will still go in as the underdogs though, and while there have been a few small bets for them at $3, we have already taken two bets totalling just under $7000 for the Bulldogs conceding 8½ points start. A near full strength Warriors should get the money over Manly on Saturday. New Zealand beat the Sea Eagles back in round three (20-16), but with John Hopoate out for the season, Manly's season may also be over. We posted the Warriors at $1.20, or -13½, looking for early Manly money, but that hasn't eventuated. Melbourne look the best of good things when they shape up to North QLD at Olympic Park on Saturday night. The Cowboys will be missing three players due to Origin duty, and like Manly, we were looking for early money for them with 9 points start, and we have taken just over $16,000 for the Cowboys with the start. If somebody had tipped Wests to beat Cronulla at the start of the season you would have had them certified, but Cronulla are in such terrible form, and only beat the Tigers by 2 points back in Round 14, that Wests fully deserve the $1.85 quote when these two line up at Leichardt on Sunday. We thought the $2 for the Sharks would be appealing to some, but have only recorded $3000 in early trading, so it also looks a strong possibility that the Tigers may also start at a shorter quote. ENTERTAINMENT Margo Uusorg may have changed partners, but the result was still the same when the man who made the 'Estonian Carry' famous sped away with the World Wife Carrying Championship in Finland on Saturday. The organisers might have to again look at the rules in an effort to stop the domination of Uusorg, as this was his fourth win from the last five years, with his only 'miss' being last year when he couldn't compete due to a hamstring injury. This event is one of the more 'unique' events that we cover, and while the betting is nice and small (which suits us fine), it certainly has created plenty of media coverage not only in Europe, but also back here in Australia. There is even talk of the possibility of a couple of media outlets in Australia sponsoring some Aussie representatives next year! America and Ireland were represented this year, and seeing as to how Australia have been dominating global sport, why should 'wife carrying' be any different? Closer to home, not too many were surprised when Vincent became Big Brother's tenth evictee on Sunday night. Actually, Vincent had been in the house all that time and hardly spoke a word, and as the field got smaller, it was only a matter of time before he got turfed out, he wasn't controversial enough! Two punters placed $1000 on Vincent to be evicted at $1.02, a tidy little profit of $20 each. This week, the polls, and the betting, point towards Patrick becoming the eleventh victim. Favourites have 'won' every eviction, and with that in mind, one person from QLD has charged in and placed $2000 on Patrick at $1.05. Regina is currently $1.25 to win the major prize after close to $5000 was placed on her last week, but it is still worth pointing out that a woman hasn't won the Aussie version of the reality show, yet. MOTOR BIKES The British MotoGP is always one of the better betting events on the GP calendar, and with Valentino Rossi not showing complete dominance as he did last year, maybe we will see a good spread of money on this weekends race. Sete Gibernau has already claimed three wins this season, with Loris Capirossi chiming in with a win as well, so Rossi certainly hasn't had it all his own way. Gibernau has been the big surprise following the untimely death of team-mate Daijiiro Katoh in Japan, and there has been money for him in each race since. This week, the Spaniard has been backed to take out just under $8000 at $9, as well as two bets of €2000 for him to finish on the podium at $2. Rossi is the warm favourite at $1.45, but the weather is going to be the big factor. Gibernau excels in wet conditions, but if the skies are clear, we expect Rossi's odds to be attractive to favourite backers. Max Biaggi is 'safe' in the betting at $7, but although he has finished amongst the placings on five occasions this season, he is yet to greet the chequered flag in first place. The Superbikes will be in action at Laguna Seca, but unfortunately this season has been rather dull following the defection of four of last season’s top five riders. What didn't help was Neil Hodgson winning nine of the first ten races, but with recent wins to Rubin Xaus and James Toseland, maybe the times are changing? FORMULA ONE The times may also be changing in Formula One as the improvements that Williams have made to their cars has turned their season around, claiming their second 1-2 finish in a row, and also having the top two spots on the grid for the second time in succession. The win by Ralf Schumacher has seen the German leapfrog Kimi Raikkonen in the Championship betting, now into $5.50 behind brother Michael at $1.33. Kimi Raikkonen was last week backed to win in excess of $20,000 by Finnish clients at $6, but has been eased to $7 following the results in Magny Cours. There are only six rounds left, and only eleven points separate the top three, so all races will take on added importance. We paid out plenty when Ralf Schumacher qualified quickest in France, but the GP itself was a good result even though Ralf went in as favourite. A German client who had place €1000 on Ralf to draw pole at $6 astounded us by placing €3000 on Michael Schumacher to win the race at $2.10. After qualifying, Ralf was an 'unwanted' $3 favourite ahead of Juan Pablo Montoya and Michael Schumacher, both at $3.50, and both heavily supported. Kimi Raikkonen was also well backed, with Finnish F1 fans backing him to take out close to $50,000 at $6. With the title as tight as it is, the vast improvement shown by the Williams' cars, and the legion of Raikkonen fans out there, we should have some very good betting races ahead of us. CRICKET It seems weird to be talking about cricket in the middle of the Australian football season, but as part of the expansion program that the ICC have put together, Australia will play Bangladesh in a test match beginning next Friday. Surprisingly this test is gathering momentum in the media, mainly due to the perception that it is going to be extremely one sided, and given the form of both sides, that is hard to argue with. We have opened up betting on the test, and the Aussies are the shortest price that any cricket team has ever been in a test ($1.03). Bangladesh are $51, and we have already taken a few bets on them from punters who think that a miracle might happen, while the draw is at $11. Realistically, the only way it could be a draw would be if it rains, and even then it would have to be for three days! Many other options are going to be available, and one that has already been appealing to punters is 'when will the test end'? This has a few twists and turns, and our thinking is that whoever wins the toss, Australia will probably bat. A finish on the first day is at $15, a second day finish is at $4.50, then after that we have broken the betting down to each session. Day three, session three ($3.75) has been where the early money has gone, along with the first session of the fourth day at $6. There is little doubt that there will be more bets placed on this option than the test itself, and we also expect a heap of interest in other options which will include the batting and bowling performances of the Australians. TENNIS Mark Philippoussis will have to wait for another day for his moment of glory, but he proved once and for all at Wimbledon that he was capable of mixing it with the best, and that was on a limited lead up campaign. When 'the Scud' made the final, we knew we would be in for a hectic time as far as betting went, and that is how it turned out. The men’s final was the biggest Wimbledon we ever had, and for Centrebet at least, the result went the right way as we had 'kept' Roger Federer throughout most of the betting. Philippoussis had some big bets 'alive' coming into the final, including $5000 and $3000 at $21, and in the hundreds of bets placed on the final match, there were another two of $20,000 at $2.50. A client from Spain placed $5000 on Federer to win 3-0 and 3-1 (each at $3.90), but the betting was so big that both of those options got to a better price. Federer landed winning bets of $25,000 ($1.50) and three bets of $20,000 at $1.55, and the way he ripped through Andy Roddick, and then Philippoussis, he is going to be a force to be reckoned with in all future tournaments. The women’s final was a bizarre betting event, but we are used to seeing that when the Williams sisters play each other. Normally punters want to stay out of these matches, but this went the other way, due to the injury Venus had. Serena firmed from $1.45 into $1.33 at one stage, but the long price available for Venus ($3.20) was the best available, and we found it very easy to sell. When the television coverage began, it was evident that Venus was nowhere near 100%, and we took close to $50,000 in a ten minute period for Serena, both to win and to win 2-0. Venus shocked all by winning the first set, but the theory apparently was that that was a 'gift', as even the $2 for her wasn't appealing to punters even though she was a set up. The cynics have had a field day with this since the final was decided, but imagine how hard it would be to play any sport against a sibling and then look at this situation. The whole issue has overshadowed the fact that the Williams' have 'lengths' on any other women that play the game. GOLF The critics have been unkind to Tiger Woods in recent weeks, claiming he was in the middle of his worst form slump of the last four years, but he answered them in typical Woods fashion with an emphatic five shot victory over PGA champ, Rich Beem, with a further two shots back to US Open champ, Jim Furyk, Masters champ Mike Weir and defending Western Open champ, Jerry Kelly. No doubt an elite line up of players in form, which only emphasizes the dominance of Woods and his apparent return to form. Let it be sufficed to say that any other golfer in the world would be happy to be in such a slump, having won four of ten tournaments in which he competed, but his true test will come next week at Royal St George in this years British Open. Apart from winning at St Andrews in 2000, Woods' form at the British Open is far from imposing, his next best finish, a tie for third behind Mark O'Meara and Brian Watts at Royal Birkdale in 1998, and if there is any weakness in his game, the likes of Els, Furyk and Weir are likely to exploit it. This week we head to the North West to compete in the Greater Milwaukee Open, played on a public course which is one of the shortest on the PGA tour. Defending champion is Jeff Sluman at $19, however two time winner on tour this year, Kenny Perry, after three consecutive top five finishes here, has been well supported, largest wager being $2000 each way at $11. Perry is now $9 favourite to win his third event on tour this year and along with David Peoples, $150 each way at $67 and Joey Sindelar, $120 each way at $81 are best backed. On the European tour last week, Phillip Price led from wire to wire to record his third victory in winning the European Open by a shot from the much improved Alistair Forsyth and Zimbabwean Mark McNulty. Darren Clarke who was well supported threatened for three rounds but closed with a disappointing 71, while Colin Montgomerie and Thomas Bjorn, also well tried in this event, never really got going. The Scottish Open at Loch Lomond has attracted a high class field this week including defending champion, Eduardo Romero, and past winners Ernie Els, Retief Goosen and Colin Montgomerie. Els has been best tried with one wager of $6000 at $8, while Montgomerie and Scotsman, Alistair Forsyth are well backed to beat him. This should prove to an interesting lead up to next weeks British Open with Americans Mickelson and Campbell honing their skills to adapt to links courses. The LPGA tour hosted their major event of the year in last weeks US Open which produced a surprise winner in Hilary Lunke. Lunke tied with Kellie Robbins and last weeks winner Angela Stanford after 72 holes at one under, and were forced to return the following day for the Opens ninth play-off. Lunke again sank a pressure putt to win by a shot over Stanford, while Robbins finished disappointingly for third. Lunke became the first player in Open history to win the title through qualifying, yet an equally big surprise occurred on the 72nd hole of the tournament. Annika Sorenstam, tied in the lead, came to the final hole, a 490 metre par five, staring down the barrel of her second Open title. However instead of a birdie Sorenstam pushed her second shot to the right of the green giving herself a tough chip. The $2.50 favourite hit her third a bit fat and finished in a green side bunker which she was unable to get up and down, a bogey not the result Sorenstam and experts alike expected. She returns this week to the Canadian Open in Quebec as $2.50 favourite, and where Meg Mallon is defending champion. It will be interesting to see if THAT final hole unnerves the unflappable champion. RUGBY UNION This Saturday the Wallabies head to Cape Town in the first match of this years Tri Nations series. The current Bledisloe Cup holders will be looking for a quick start in an attempt to win back the Tri Nations trophy they lost to the All Blacks last year, and if Eddie Jones's wielding of the axe on stalwarts Chris Latham and Jeremy Paul is any indication of their overall commitment then the Springboks will be in for a tough time. Last year the Springboks managed a last gasp win over the Wallabies at Ellis Park, but given their recent disappointing efforts against Scotland and Argentina, and their lack of versatility on the bench, we expect this match to finish in the Wallabies favour. Early betting had the Wallabies 3½ point favourites at $1.90 and $1.58 to win outright, but with the deluge of support from around the globe they have now firmed into 6 point favourites and $1.45 to win outright. Our opening wager came from a South African client who placed £3000 at both the points and win, which was followed by another £5000 from an English client at the points with not a cracker for the Springboks. Nevertheless it will be interesting to see how the Wallaby backline performs with a new centre pairing of Matt Rogers and Steve Kefu, and Matthew Burke returning to fullback Betting to win the Tri Nations has been dominated by the All Blacks at $1.50 with the Wallabies at $2.80 and the Springboks at $10.50. A loss to either side in this first match will make things difficult for them for the remainder of the series, and if the Wallabies are successful, will see the Springboks drift markedly in the betting. And don't forget any wager you place on the Tri Nations series with Centrebet will make you eligible for two VIP tickets to the Final of the World Cup in Sydney in November, including return air fare and accommodation. Terms and Conditions apply. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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