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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES There was very little respite in the battle with punters on last weeks AFL when seven of the eight favourites won, with five of those also covering the handicap. Multiples takers had a field day, as all of the 'shorties' won, and although both Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs gave us a glimmer of hope in their respective games, the fav's prevailed. Friday night's match between Adelaide and Essendon was the biggest betting match we have ever seen on a Friday night. The bad weather only made the betting better, but Adelaide’s 41 point victory was a shocking result as we rated the Bombers highly in the conditions. Both sides attracted a $40,000 bet on the handicap (13½), but there were also bets of $25,000 and $20,000 for the Crows giving up the start. 'Win' bets of $18,000 and $15,000 were also placed on Adelaide at $1.50, while another two $10,000 bets came at $1.44 after Jason Johnson was ruled out of the Essendon side. The Crows are now a good chance to finish on the 'top two', and this week we have seen a steady stream of bets for them to win the premiership at $6. Collingwood went around at a very short $1.28, but did the job properly for punters when they defeated Fremantle by 41 points. At the same time over at Telstra Dome, Richmond's season was coming to an end at the expense of a determined Geelong. Richmond were into $1.60 on the morning of the match, but when Geelong 'big man' Stephen King also came out of the side, we slashed Richmond’s price to $1.45. That was probably way too short for a side that had lost six in a row, and there weren't many keen to take the short odds, and after watching the game, it wasn't hard to work out why. Sydney and West Coast recorded big wins on Saturday night, and while there wasn't a lot of activity on the games themselves, there was a lot channeled through the multiples on both sides winning into Brisbane and Port on Sunday. A punter who had lumped $20,000 on Collingwood returned on Sunday with $36,000 to say that Brisbane ($1.30) would beat Hawthorn. He got it right, but not after the Hawks had led for a major portion of the game. The Kangaroos look set to grab a finals berth after another hard fought 7 point win, this time over Melbourne. The Demons were backed early in the week, led up by a $15,000 bet from Victoria at $2.05. Both sides went into Sunday at $1.90 apiece, and at those prices both were layable, but the Kangaroos were a much better result. They really have been the success story of 2003, and incredibly each week people continue to bet against them. In the other match on Sunday, The Bulldogs did enough to stay inside the 33 point handicap against Port Adelaide, but not enough to spring a major upset when they went down by 15 points. This week, round 16, we see the second part of the season begin with this round being the reverse of round one. There have been some very disappointing sides during that period, but in a rarity, only four of the home sides are favourites this week. Collingwood continue a march towards a top four finish, and have already been well backed to thrash Richmond. The first two significant bets on the Magpies were each of $15,000 at $1.22, and now we find them being coupled up in nearly every multiple for the week. There are also two $5000 bets at -29½ points, so if ever Richmond wanted to impress the fans, and the bookies, now would be a good time to do it! The Swans juggernaut also keeps rolling along, and there is also a $15,000 bet for them at $1.33 to beat Carlton on Saturday. The Blues were 'rabble' in Perth last week, but playing at Optus Oval gives them some remote hope. Essendon weren't much better in Adelaide, and when looking back over their recent wins, the quality of the opposition wasn't great, so we expect them to go down to Brisbane. Looking for early Essendon money, we posted the Bombers at $2.70, but a solid move today has seen that price cut to $2.45. The makeup of the finals may well be decided in the two big interstate games for the weekend. Port ($1.48) will host the West Coast, while Freo ($1.75) will host Adelaide. The affect that the home ground advantage has on betting is evident here. In round one, Port were beaten by 48 points by the West Coast, with Freo suffering a 48 point defeat at the hands of Adelaide, yet both losers are favourites back on their home turf. We think that both underdogs can win, and both matches look to be the best betting games for us as there has been plenty of support for all four sides. After this round, the premiership picture might become a bit clearer, but for the moment, Brisbane head the betting at $3, narrowly ahead of Port at $3.25. Voss, Buckley and Crawford, perennial Brownlow favourites, all firmed in betting following last weeks round. Voss is now $3, with the other two at $5, but they are advantaged by the fact that they have few team-mates who would be taking votes off them. Buckley and Crawford are also the only two players in the top ten of betting who play for Victorian sides, so it will be interesting to see where Victorian punters place their allegiances. RUGBY LEAGUE We really did 'put the party on' for Aussie punters last week when all seven NRL favourites won, on top of the seven that won in the AFL. One South Australian punter won $80,000 in one bet mixing up two teams from each comp, while a QLD client won just over $56,000 by coupling up six teams. He had to outlay $12,000, but all won easily. We got off to a quiet start when the Bulldogs belted Brisbane 40-4. The Broncos side looked only fair on paper, so we were more than happy to try and get something out of them with 8 points start before getting involved with the Bulldogs. At that mark, there was business for both sides, so even though the Bulldogs were short priced favourites, we didn't do any damage. The Warriors won, but it was far from impressive, when they beat Manly 20-12 on Saturday. The half time score was 0-0, and in a game of many mistakes, it looked like it could go either way. Those who took the -13½ for New Zealand looked like they were going to get the cash when the Warriors opened up a 14 point gap with 10 minutes to go, but Manly battled it right out to reduce the margin with a late try. A battle weary Melbourne Storm 'fell in' by six points over North QLD on Saturday night. We didn't rate the Cowboys any chance with their Origin players, and quite happily took two $10,000 bets for them with 9½ points start, as well as three $5000 bets for them to win at $3.50. With an ounce of luck, those punters could also have been collecting, and the Cowboys will now go down as one of the unluckiest sides of 2003. Laying Wests Tigers at $1.90 seemed like a good idea against Cronulla, but following the 44-12 demolition of the Sharks by the Tigers, we have now banished Cronulla to the 'never to be backed again' category, along with Parramatta! Three separate bets of $10,000 were placed on the Tigers, and it was obvious after 10 minutes what the final result would be. In the other match on Sunday, Canberra were outplayed in the first half, but made the use of two opportunities to lead St George 12-10 at the major break. Late money saw the Dragons start slight fav's in a good betting match, but they couldn't put the Raiders away, eventually going down by one point, and at the same time placing a finals spot in jeopardy. Last night (Wed), the third State of Origin was decided, which saw a rejuvenated QLD side win by an amazing 30 points. Normally 'dead rubbers' don’t generate a lot of interest for betting, but there was a lot of pride at stake here, which saw punters really warm to both sides. Bets of $30,000 and $25,000 were placed on NSW to win at $1.60 and $1.55, as well as three $10,000 bets for them to beat a 4½ point handicap. The Maroons, on the other hand, had supporters as well with three bets of $4000 to win at $2.50, and several best around the $2000 mark to say that the Queenslanders would stay within the four point handicap. One client from NSW tipped an improvement by the Maroons, placing $4500 on them to lead at half time and full time at $4, a nice little win of $13,500. After watching the game last night, and remembering how tight the first match was for 50 minutes, the Queenslanders weren't really that far away from winning the series. We didn't open two matches on this weekends round until this morning. The Newcastle v Penrith and Melbourne v Brisbane games were left closed until we saw how their Origin players pulled up. Newcastle will host a rampant Penrith side on Friday night, where the Knights go in as $1.55 favourites. The early sprinkling of money has been for them, but although Penrith struggled to put Souths away last week, the $2.35 looks good odds for a team that has won twelve of their last thirteen. Brisbane also face a danger game in Melbourne. The Bronco's always have a torrid time through Origin series' each year, and playing four days after Wednesday nights game may be against them, the theory being that soreness comes out after a few days. One thing in their favour is that Melbourne have a stack of injuries, so that has brought the betting close together. Brisbane fans have taken the $1.60 for small amounts, but two Sydney punters have invested $8,000 between them on the Storm with 3 points start as soon as we posted it. Somebody has to win between Cronulla and New Zealand, but on last week’s performances, it is hard to work out who! New Zealand have been awarded favourtism at $1.55, and there has been bets of $10,000 and $8000 at that quote. On top of that, there has also been money for the Warriors at -3½. New Zealand must win that game, but there is also a lot at stake when St George Illawarra travel to Townsville on Saturday night. The Dragons have a lot of players backing up, as do the Cowboys, but St George need to keep their finals hopes alive with a win. The Cowboys are in the same boat, but with a torrid road home, their hopes look remote. This looked to be a match where there would be good support for both sides, but in early trading, it has been one way action for the Cowboys, including one bet of $7500 from that region. The Bulldogs have now regained outright premiership favourtism at $4, ahead of the Roosters ($4.25) and Brisbane, at $4.75. The Sydney punter who took the Bulldogs into the Brisbane Lions to win the AFL for a payout of $330,000 must be really pleased with himself at the moment. CRICKET They say that it will be one of the greatest 'miss-matches' in sport when Australia and Bangladesh begin the First cricket Test in Darwin on Friday, but all the publicity surrounding Bangladesh has generated plenty of interest. The Aussies go in as the shortest priced fav's we have ever had in a test at $1.03. One Sydney punter has risked $20,000 to win $666, and there have been several bets around $5000 for Australia. It is a little better than having the money in the bank for a few days, but they all look pretty safe as it rarely rains in Darwin this time of year, and it would have to rain for four days to give the draw option ($12) any hope. Most big punters have given the match a very wide berth, but with all the coverage in the media about how bad Bangladesh are, and how long they will last, there has been a lot more interest from smaller punters than we thought there would be. The 'when will the match finish' option has seen 'day two backed from $4.25 into $3, but there have even been a handful of punters who think it will be all over inside a day at $15! We have added a few extra options, including what the opening partnership will be for each side. There has already been two $400 bets for the Bangladeshi openers to score LESS than 10 runs, while one of those punters has also placed $600 on Hayden and Langer scoring between 100 and 199 ($3.75) before one of them is forced to make the trek back to the pavilion. ENTERTAINMENT Only three housemates are left in Aussie Big Brother following the eviction of Patrick last weekend. Patrick was favourite, as have been all other 'evictees', but it was only one punter, armed with $2000 at $1.05, who reaped anything out of the result. Regina is still $1.30 to win the major prize, and although she has dominated betting, this is where it gets interesting. Last week we took close to $5000 in bets at the short odds, but assuming Regina makes it to the last two, there is a chance she may well be better odds. If she lines up against Daniel, she has the problem that previous Australian BB winners have been men, due to the high element of women voters. If she is up against Chrissie, will the women voters go the 'safe' way and vote for Chrissie, instead of the good looking Tasmanian? As you can see, there is a lot more to doing the BB 'form' than just canvassing opinions around the offices of Centrebet. BOXING 'That man', Anthony Mundine, has been at it again when he recently gave Cathy Freeman a bit of a 'bagging' in the press. Every time he does this type of thing, it is always in the lead up to a fight, and he upsets the Australian public so much that they then go and bet against him winning! That is exactly what has happened over the past seven days as we have seen close to $7500 placed on Antwun Echols ($1.80), who will fight Mundine at the Sydney Entertainment Centre in three weeks time. Mundine is now out to $1.90, and while one of the earlier bets we took for him was $4000 at the opening price of $1.85, he is temporarily out of favour with the Australian public. Having said that though, Echols is no saint either as he had an 'encounter' with a bullet two months ago, and also has a 'colourful' past. Echols is ranked number four in the world in the super middleweight division, with Mundine ranked eight. Mundine’s only failure was to Sven Ottke, whereas Echols has more experience with 34 bouts under his belt, having won 29 of those. The profile of Mundine is so big in Australia that this looms as a monstrous betting bout, with plenty of Aussies prepared to bet against him in the hope he gets laid out on his back, and plenty prepared to be 'on' him, recognising the ability that he does possess. RUGBY UNION The bubble has well and truly burst for the Wallabies over the last six months. The Aussies had a spate of matches that they won, coming from behind, and winning in the dying minutes, but now that has all changed and we find ourselves on the receiving end of close finishes. It happened again last Saturday when South Africa beat Australia 26-22 in Cape Town. This was the first of the Tri-Nations games, and while it was a good winning result, we were definitely swayed by the support for Australia from our bigger South African clients. The Wallabies were backed from an opening $1.58 into $1.40, with the handicap moving from -3½ into -7 at kick-off. It was intriguing that our Australian union punters didn't want to touch the Wallabies as they got shorter, yet the deluge of money from England and South Africa for a Wallabies win seemed endless. We took a conservative approach with some of these bets thinking all may not have been well in the Springbok camp, but they were equal to the task. Now it is the turn of the All Blacks as they travel to Pretoria this week. We can’t see any reason why South Africa can’t win again, but the trend is already going against them as bets of $10,000 and $7000 have come for an All Blacks win at $1.40, as well as three bets totaling just under $12,000 for them to cover an 8 point handicap. South Africa are out to $3, but no takers as yet. Another interesting thing is the ever changing World Cup market. After last weeks win by South Africa over Australia, some bookies shortened England, and left South Africa at around $16. That seems a bit strange as they are in one half of the draw, but we have left the English at $3.25 looking for some money. South Africa have had their detractors over the past twelve months, but we think that they showed enough last week to warrant bringing them in to $13. We will get a good gauge on their form when they come to this part of the world for the remaining Tri-Nations matches, but at this stage, we certainly haven't written them off as a winning chance. GOLF It’s seldom that both favourites win on the two major tours in any given week, but that is exactly what happened last week as Ernie Els dominated the Scottish Open and Kenny Perry won the Greater Milwaukee Open. Els was completely dominant in the Scottish Open as he led from wire to wire and consolidated his position at the top of the Volvo Order of Merit. He commenced his final round five shots clear of last weeks winner Phillip Price and in form Englishman Darren Clarke, and try as they may, they could only match Els's closing round of three under 69 and remained in a tie for second. With one wager of $6000 at $8 on Els to win the event, it was any wonder Centrebet was cheering for a repeat performance from Price, or for Clarke to have his first victory on tour this year. Needless to say it was a clinical performance from the current ‘Open champion,’ and good indication that he is determined to retain the title he won last year at Muirfield. On the PGA tour Perry finished with a birdie on the final hole to win by a shot from Australian Steve Allan, Heath Slocum and Brett Quigley, all seeking their first victory on tour. Perry, now second only to Tiger Woods for most wins on tour this season after his third victory, and like Els on the European tour, punters were not afraid to back him, the largest wager being $2000 each way at $11. We head to New York this week for the B.C Open where Spike McRoy is defending champion. The field is void of name players as they head to Royal St George to compete in the 132nd British Open, however that has not stopped punters from becoming involved, with Notah Begay, Hank Khuene and Brendan Pappas all well supported, ironically at $41, to defeat favourites, Robert Gamez, $17, Woody Austin, $26, and last weeks runner up, Brett Quigley also at $26. This event usually produces a first time winner and if the betting is any indication then this year should be no different. The British Open at Royal St George, Kent, has assembled a field which includes the top fifty players in the world, and signals another showdown between the top two players, Woods and Els. Els is the defending champion, an honour bestowed upon him after winning a four way play-off last year against Australians Stuart Appleby, Steve Elkington and Frenchman Thomas Levet. He has been well supported again with one wager of $14,000 at $8 giving every indication of his determined intention to defend his title on a links course which he is more accustomed than favourite Tiger Woods. Woods has been difficult to lay in this event despite his recent return to form a fortnight ago in winning the Western Open by five shots, but not so other Europeans in form, including $2000 on Nick Price at $51, $2000 on Colin Montgomerie at $51, $3300 on Darren Clarke at $31 and numerous wagers on Thomas Bjorn from our Scandinavian clients, backed from $81 into $51. Our largest wager however was $10,000 on Padraig Harrington at $23 placed by a client from China, a true indication of the International interest this event creates, and given the fickle nature of links courses and their change in character given different weather conditions, Centrebet is hoping that lesser name players, such as last year, feature prominently on the leaderboard. Apart from ‘Win and Place’ betting on the Open, Centrebet is offering complete coverage of this event including Tournament Head to Heads, Make the Cut, Round One Three Balls, Round One 4 Ball/Best Balls and Group Betting along with a comprehensive guide to enable punters to find a winner. Whatever the result of the Open, it is sure to provide numerous highlight and hopefully a finish fitting of an event of this calibre. SOCCER Things are gearing up for the start to the new football season in Europe, and with Norwegian soccer resuming this week after the summer break, we are seeing a lot of our soccer punters returning. The summer break in Norway has seen several changes to most teams, and although betting has been opened for two full weeks on this round, punters have been very wary about having a bet, that is of course except for Rosenborg. We have posted Rosenborg at $1.45, and a few of the early bets include 80,000 NOK ($16,000), AND 50,000 NOK. Rosenborg are away to Tromso, and we think they could be a risk as they had 12 days off during the break, and Tromso have signed Ole Martin Årst, who is returning after two successful years in Belgium. Valerenga play Brann on Sunday, and we are also keen to take on Valerenga at the $1.65, and the indications are there that that will be easy to do. Brann have re-signed a couple of ex-players during the break, but there is a doubt over their fitness at this stage. This week we are also covering the European Under 19 Championships which began last night (Wed). Portugal are our $2.45 tournament favourites, and were the only team to gather any real support before the first round. They recently won the Under 17 Championship, and were absolutely brilliant in the Toulon tournament for under 20's. They look good things to win group A although Norway ($6) are said to be fielding their best ever youth side. Group B looks open, with the best chances expected to be France and England. David Beckham, Harry Kewell and Chelsea trying to 'buy' a premiership have ensured that there is plenty of interest in the English Premier League, even though the season doesn't start for another month. Man United are favorites at $2.25, a price which was taken this week by an English client with £2000. Man United might well win the title again, but from a bookmaking perspective, now is the time to be laying them as they invariably get out in the betting early in the season. Arsenal have been hard to sell at $2.80, but Kewell's move to Liverpool had an immediate reaction, and we now find Aussie Prem League fans taking the $6.50. We haven't laid Chelsea as yet, but on paper they look good, so have cut them to $9. Practically every 'outsider' has been backed to win well over $100,000 with us, but that is normally the case, and it is also normal for all of them to be out of the race after a few rounds. There has been some interest in Barcelona to win the Spanish League at $5.50, but Real Madrid are the very warm favourites at $1.60. Real Madrid had to battle it right out to win the league from Sociedad last season, but took all before them in the Champions League. We have all read about their signings, and they do look extremely hard to beat. Barcelona however had a very disappointing season, and are in rebuilding mode, but cash is going to be the problem as they try and buy players. They have a new board and management, but it may take at least a season or two for them to regroup. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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