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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Following last weekend's results Port Adelaide have now moved into clear-cut premiership favourites at $2.75 and with a two home finals the Power fully deserve the tag of favourites. We have been a little fortunate this year that there hasn't been the avalanche of money throughout the year for Port that we have seen over the previous couple of years, and in fact at this stage, they are good winners for Centrebet. Brisbane's injuries and current form have seen the Lions blow out to $3.50, and realistically would be a bigger price except they are big losers already in our books. The Lions have been fav's since betting opened, with the largest bet taken being $40,000 at $2.50 early in the season. The continued good form of a couple of the other sides is also creating a lot of premiership interest, with both Collingwood and West Coast backed to win over $50,000 last week. Collingwood continue to firm in betting, now into $6.50, while the loss by the West Coast has seen the Eagles ease back out to $8. Sydney's price continues to plummet, now into $13, and for the first time this year, the money for the Swans is starting to roll in. While on the Swans, they had a 31 point win over Carlton, and although the win was never in doubt, the last goal they scored was very costly. There had been money all week for the Swans to beat the handicap, which moved from -21½ out to -25½. On the day of the match, bets of $6000 and $5000 came at -25½, as well as a $25,000 ($2.22) double of that handicap into Canberra to beat Wests in the NRL. Sydney held a 25 point lead for the last couple of minutes before a late goal extended the margin to 31, and anyone who saw the finish of the Canberra game would agree that the big multiple bet was extremely lucky to get up, probably on both counts! Essendon won a tough battle over Brisbane on Saturday night by eight points, and bookies came out of this one as bruised and battered as the Lions. We opened Essendon at $2.70, but the punters were taking $2.20 at the jump, due mainly to the injuries to Brisbane, and weight of money. There was some support for the Lions as they drifted out, but three winning $10,000 bets were placed on Essendon with the start, which came in from 17½ to 11½. The old adage of 'bad sides at bad odds' was one of the main reasons why punters didn't want a bar of Geelong on Sunday, and just to prove what an enigma the Cats are, they were beaten three goals by the Bulldogs, who hadn't won since the first round. Being a 'Sunday favourite', there was some money for Geelong, mainly through the multiples, but when Stephen King came out of the side, even a move out to $1.53 couldn't create any interest. The Kangaroos however was a different matter as they shortened from $1.50 into $1.45 amidst 'win' bets of $12,000 and $18,000 at -14½ points. St Kilda piled on 10 goals in the first quarter, which saw the Kangaroos blow out to $4 at the first break. Even at half time, the Saints still held a commanding five goal lead, at which time a Victorian client placed $3000 at $1.30. He came back again at the end of the third quarter with another $5000 at $1.57 when the Saints lead had been cut to 14 points. His heart would have been in his mouth as the Kangaroos hit the front, but to the credit of the young St Kilda side, they rallied to win by five points. Fremantle were also involved in a thriller when the beat Adelaide by one point. This was one of those games where money came for both sides, and although the Dockers were into $1.65 at the start of the game, it wasn't a bad result. This week, the round begins with a side who went down by nearly 11 goals last week. The big 'plus' for the West Coast is that they return home to the West, and punters think that they will dispose of Hawthorn. Bets of $10,000 and $7500 have gone on the Eagles at $1.22, as well as a bet of $6600 at -27½ points, and being the first favourite up, they have also been coupled up in some large multiple bets. Everything is 'on the line' for both the Kangaroos and Essendon on Saturday, and for that reason, punters have been keen to take the short odds for a win by either side. The Kangaroos ($1.40) travel to Manuka in Canberra to take on Geelong, while Essendon ($1.33) play Melbourne at the MCG. The Kangaroos will probably get the money, but we think Melbourne are a strong chance to upset Essendon. All eyes will be on the Brisbane v Port game at the Gabba on Saturday night. Brisbane are slight fav's at $1.78, and while they are layable at that price, bigger punters have kept away from it. Port ($2) have had nearly double the amount of bets placed on them to win, and look like they might even challenge for favourtism if Brisbane don't get some of their big names back. Historically, Collingwood v Carlton clashes are always big games that could go either way, but only a supreme optimist would suggest Carlton ($7) have any hope against Collingwood on Sunday. The Magpies have had two bets totaling $13,000 placed on them conceding 40½ points start, and that looks a reasonable assumption given where the two sides are at the moment. That game will also give Nathan Buckley an excellent chance to get some Brownlow votes. Buckley, who is in hot form, is our new Brownlow favourite at $2.75 as Michael Voss continues to struggle a little with injury. Buckley hasn't won a Brownlow, but we have become accustomed to how punters warm to him when he plays well, and while he continues to do so, he can only get shorter. Adelaide's Mark Riccuito has been the big mover of those further down the betting list, now into $11. RUGBY LEAGUE Well, punters certainly got the better of some very tight finishes on last weeks NRL, with every close finish going their way. We got of to a good start when Penrith held Newcastle scoreless in the second half to win 29-16. There was always a doubt about how Andrew Johns and company would come up after Origin, and that was probably the difference. Newcastle attracted several big bets, including one of $18,000 conceding four points start, but on Friday there was a rally for Penrith, including two $4000 bets to win at $2.30. The Panthers were big winners in our book though, but some of the gloss was taken off by two $10,000 bets that the total score would go over 43½ points. Penrith scored in the corner in the 79th minute to take the score to 43 points. Ryan Girdler hadn't had the best of nights with the boot, so we thought we were 'safe' as he tried to convert from the sideline. His kick never looked like missing, which set the tone for a few other things that went against us over the weekend. Wests Tigers must have set some sort of record for disallowed tries against Canberra on Saturday night, but it was the one right on full-time that delivered the most savage blow. Of course we are talking through our pockets, but a forward pass ruled against Wests, which saw them take the lead right on full time, looked very dubious from our lounge rooms! Canberra had a small fortune going through them to win the game, but at least we got to hang on to a couple of hefty bets for the Raiders conceding 10 points start. Still reeling from that finish, another nail was driven in when New Zealand defeated Cronulla 31-24. New Zealand were our biggest 'stand' of the round, and some of the bets included $15,000 at -3½, and three bets of $10,000 at -4½. Cronulla led 20-12 at half time, and were playing well enough to win. The Warriors fought back to hold a six point lead, which Cronulla negated 10 minutes out. Stacey Jones put the Warriors up 25-24 from a field goal seven minutes from the finish, and we would have been happy with that, but when a Brett Kimmorley field goal attempt went astray, the Warrior's Justin Murphy shrugged off four tacklers to run the length of the field and score, at the same time taking the Warriors beyond the handicap. When you are hot, you're hot, and punters were running hot when a similar finish went against us on Sunday. We thought that Melbourne could beat Brisbane, and while there were two bets of $5000 for the Storm to win at $2.30, there were three $10,000 bets, and several of $5000 for Brisbane to beat a three point handicap. Once again, things looked rosy when Melbourne led 16-6 at half time, and with Brisbane's Darren Lockyer carrying an injury, we thought that this was one that would go our way. Wrong! Melbourne led 22-18 before a Brisbane unconverted try took the game into extra time. Out of all the possible scoring options, the only way we could lose was a Brisbane try, and after Melbourne's Matt Orford missed a field goal attempt, Brisbane's Scott Minto became a hero with punters when he scored in the corner. The heavy schedule dumped on some league players continues on Friday night when Australia play New Zealand in a Test at Aussie Stadium. The Kiwi's have picked a side that looks light on for speed, but big in the forwards, so the battering that some of the Aussies have taken over the past few weeks should continue. New Zealand are never favourites in these Tests, but some money has come across the Tasman for New Zealand to win at $4. The Australians are $1.22, which hasn't seen much action, but three bets totaling just under $27,000 have gone on the Kangaroos conceding 11½ points start. The Warriors get the bye this week following the Test, but you have to feel sorry for some of the Bronco's who have to front up against Manly on Saturday night less than 24 hours later. Darren Lockyer won't be playing in either game after being ruled out of the Test with an ankle injury that troubled him during the Origin series, and his absence will make the Broncos harder to sell. Brisbane are at home and even without Lockyer, look the winners at a short $1.20. However the heavy representative campaign of the past few weeks should be taking it's toll with six players backing up from Test duties, so we have been prepared to get something out of Brisbane at -11½ points start. Parramatta found some form last week, but it might be 19 rounds too late. Even then, the Eels were outscored 16-6 by Souths in the second half, but some think they can beat St George Illawarra this week. We posted Parramatta at $2.10, which was snapped up by a couple of Sydney punters with $4000, and as yet we haven't been able to find any takers for the Dragons at $1.80. The game of the round will be on Sunday when Penrith host the Roosters. Penrith continue to win, and the Roosters eventually thrashed Manly last week after being behind for most of the first half. This will be a good opportunity for Penrith to again point out that they are premiership material, and we have them slight fav's at $1.85, with early money for the Roosters at $1.95. The way Newcastle struggled in the second half last week, and the way Wests played against Canberra, and upset looms in their match on Sunday. The Knights are an appealing (that's what we thought anyway) $1.50, but so far we have only been able to get bets of $6000 and $4400 for Newcastle to win, and nothing at the -6½ points start. Maybe most punters are waiting to see how Andrew Johns pulls up after Friday night, and who can really blame them? ENTERTAINMENT Regina won the $250,000, and punters also collected, when the 'fish and chip queen' from Tasmania won Australian Big Brother on Monday night. When Daniel was evicted on Sunday, there were only Regina and Chrissie left, so the sequence of male winners was finally broken. Due to Regina's popularity in the press, and the polls pointing towards her being a big winner, the betting on the final opened with Regina at $1.10, and Chrissie at $5. We took plenty of smaller bets fro Chrissie, but there were four separate bets of $2000 for Regina at $1.10. She justified that price by getting a staggering 72% of the vote, and continued the run of favourites throughout the series. Reggie was favourite at $5.50 when betting first opened, and every single eviction was won by the favourites. All up, those results sound horrific, but there was very little in it when we looked at the overall result after 12 long weeks. RUGBY UNION New Zealand justified World Cup favourtism by dishing out a monster 52-16 belting to the Springboks last Saturday, and in doing so confirmed they are on track for the World Cup. There wasn't a terrible lot of interest in this match, which was a good thing as we thought the Springboks were good odds at $3.10. The bulk of interest came from New Zealand, as well as from England, with a regular union punter from London placing £4000 on New Zealand conceding seven points start. Now the Wallabies face the daunting task of taking on the All Blacks in game three of the Tri Nations this week. This is also the first of the Bledisloe Cup games (confused?), as those two competitions were incorporated when the Tri Nations started. One big thing in Australia's favour is that they will be playing on home turf, but when you line up how they played when beaten by South Africa two weeks ago, then look at what the Kiwi's did to South Africa, how can you put up an argument for an Australian win? Pride will make some difference, but it still looks as though the Wallabies are missing something. Anyway, betting is opened, and it is shaping as a beauty. The initial burst of bets was for Australia at $3 to win, and also with eight points start. Some of those included a 'win' bet of $16,000, and three $5000 bets at the handicap, but now that our New Zealand and English friends have joined the fray, the money is going the other way, including a £5000 bet for New Zealand at -8½ ($1.95). If those punters are right, and New Zealand score an emphatic win, then, we can brace ourselves for some spirited betting to win the World Cup. We currently have the All Blacks at $2.30, ahead of England at $3.20, and continue to see a sprinkling of money for both. There hasn't been a cracker for Australia recently at $4.25, but last week we did accept two bets of $2000 for France at $9. Group betting is opened for business. Australia are $1.15 to win Group A, France the same odds to win Group B, England are $1.12 to win Group C, and New Zealand are probably overpriced at $1.01 to win Group D. Their opponents are Wales, Italy, Canada and Tonga, so as you can see, the '100/1 on' is almost a gift! NETBALL The writing was on the wall following the semi finals of the World Netball Championships that the New Zealanders, the 'Silver Ferns', would be hard to hold out in the final, and that is what happened when they defeated Australia by two goals in the final. We covered most all of the matches that involved both Australia and New Zealand, but noticed that the Australians struggled to put away the host nation, Jamaica, only beating them by five. When New Zealand played Jamaica in the semis, they beat them by 17, while in the other semi, Australia beat England by seven, after New Zealand had beaten the English by 30 in the preliminary rounds. In the Australia v England semi final, we did take a bet of $90,000, from New Zealand, for Australia to win at $1.06! As World Champions, we opened up Australia as slight fav's in the final at $1.75, but early interest, including a $3000 bet from Sydney, was for New Zealand. Both sides started at $1.85 on the morning of the match, with money coming both ways. The end result was a small win for Centrebet as there had been money early in the week for Australia to win the title when they were $1.50, and should ensure the fierce rivalry that these two nations have for each other will continue on next time they meet. MOTOR BIKES Most of our MotorGP punters have a bit of 'free' money to spend on this week's German Grand Prix after Valentino Rossi had his win stripped from him in Donington two weeks ago. Rossi was a heavily backed $1.45 favourite, and when he got on the podium as the 'winner', for betting purposes, that was the finish, and bets were paid out. As we all know, that decision was overturned several hours later when Rossi incurred a 10 second penalty, relegating him to third, so punters received a windfall. Rossi will go around pretty short again in Germany this week, and we see this as a chance to get something back. We have already seen some decent bets come in for him, including €4500 from Italy at $1.45, but the course at Reisa is the 'slowest' circuit on the calendar, which can level things up. In this race last year, the two strokes dominated qualifying on the twisting circuit, which saw Olivier Jacque gain pole position on a 500cc. Jacque was in a winning position until he was taken out by Alex Barros, also on a two stroke, which handed the race to Rossi. Rossi's arch rival Max Biaggi won this event back in 2001, and we rate him second elect at $6 to repeat the dose. Barros, also a previous winner here back in 2001, has been backed to win just under $10,000 by a handful of German punters at $17, while we have also taken a bet of €3000 from Germany for Sete Gibernau ($2.10) to continue his good form and finish on the podium. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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