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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Betting turnover on AFL has exploded over the past few weeks, but that has only happened as punters play up their winnings. Round 17 was another horror weekend for bookies with all eight winners starting heavily supported favourites, with five of seven covering the handicaps that were available. We were teased into thinking that a couple were going to get rolled, namely the Kangaroos and Sydney, but both fought back to win, and in the 'Roos case, cover the spread. There were numerous big doubles, trebles etc for the weekend, but the bigger ones were saved for the three Sunday favourites. Sydney, Collingwood and Adelaide were coupled up in two trebles of $20,000 and $18,000 ($1.60), and were also the last legs of many that were still alive. Fremantle would have killed most of those off if they had been able to put Sydney away, but despite our urgings they weren't up to the task. The 'match of the year' even turned out to be a loser when Port Adelaide were backed from slight outsiders at $1.95 into outright favourtism at $1.85. Of course Brisbane had a couple out, but we were surprised by the lack of interest in the Lions. The ratio of bets that went on Port was 3-1 in their favour, thankfully the bulk of those were small! It was similar in the Bulldogs v Richmond game where there was little separating the two sides in betting. The late move, including a bet of $9000 ($1.85) was for Richmond, and they delivered for punters, winning by 10 goals. It's amazing what Port's one point victory has done to premiership betting. They will grab an all important top two spot, but they did mess that up last year, and they were playing a seriously under-manned Brisbane side. Port are now 'layable' at $2.75, yet Brisbane have blown out to $5 with some operators. The Lions have a very good draw coming up, and could still finish second, but even if they did finish in the top four, that shouldn't deter punters as they can win away from home. Collingwood have been backed to win over $20,000 this week at $5.25, and Sydney ($16) have been backed to win nearly double that amount. The Swans sit in second position, but have a hard run home, and have lost Jason Ball for the season. The weekend's games have thrown open the Brownlow betting again. Favourite Nathan Buckley spent a lot of time on the bench when Collingwood thrashed Carlton, and if this continues, it is going to be hard for him to get votes, and the $2.75 all of a sudden becomes most unattractive. Mark Riccuito ($11-$8) and Ben Cousins ($26-$13) were the two big movers following the weekend's games. As for this week, well punters have shown their intentions early in the week. Even though five of the opening favourites are the 'away' sides, all have been coupled up in multiples as punters give their winnings a 'fly'. Some of the bigger bets already include $25,000 on Essendon, Collingwood and Brisbane to win at $1.62, those three with Fremantle added in for a bet of $12,000 at $1.95, and all four with Melbourne, a bet of $6600 at $2.85. There is a ring of confidence about all favourites winning again, and we have seen a lot of bets, especially smaller ones, come for all eight to win at $6.40. Looking for some of these fav's to be beaten, the two that look most vulnerable are the first and last, Melbourne and the West Coast. Melbourne ($1.48) had a let down when beaten last week, and the Bulldogs best performances have been at Telstra Dome. St Kilda ($2.75) must be a good chance of beating the West Coast if they display the form of two weeks ago when they beat the Kangaroos. They get Fraser Gehrig back this week after suspension, and are capable of kicking a big score. We have already taken two $5000 bets for the West Coast at -17½ points, and although that looks likely to carry further support, we are pinning our faith in St Kilda topping the run of favourites. RUGBY LEAGUE The roll of favourites in Aussie sports continued when six of the eight rugby league favourites saluting. They included Friday night's Test between Australia and New Zealand, which after a tight opening 20 minutes, went to the Kangaroos 48-6. This turned out to be a far better betting game than the spectacle itself. There was initial money for Australia, including bets of $18,000 and $12,500 from England for them conceding 11½ points start, but on Friday there was action both ways. The Kiwis were backed from $4.10 into $3.50 to win the game, with all of that money coming from New Zealand, but two Australian punters each lumped $10,000 on New Zealand with the handicap start. The scoreline raised more question marks over the future of international rugby league, with moves afoot to play a 'Tri- Nations' series either at the start of our season, or at the end, to try and even things up a bit. One of the two fav's that were beaten at the weekend was Brisbane, who went down to Manly 26-20. That is the Bronco's third loss from four at the new Suncorp Stadium, but to be fair to them, they did have Tallis and Lockyer out through injury and rested Test centre Brent Tate. That info was there for all the world to see, and while a lot of Brisbane fans wisely chose not to back the Broncos at $1.25 or -11½ points, we did take bets of $12,000 and $10,000 from Sydney punters on the handicap. The other 'roughie' to win for the round was anything but an underdog. As much as $3.10 was given for Wests Tigers to beat Newcastle, which appeared rather generous considering the form of the two sides. We were keen to take on the Knights, and did take bets of $6000 and $4000 for them at $1.50, but when speculation rose that coach Michael Hagan would be resting Danny Buderus and Andrew Johns, we turned the game off until after the Test. This is nothing new, and something that we have done during the Origin series, but for some reason it became newsworthy this time. There had been talk of Johns being rested the previous week, so it was always on the cards, and another reason why we shouldn't put too much emphasis on the 'sides' that get named each Tuesday night. Anyway, when betting was reopened on Sunday, the Tigers were $2.15 and Newcastle $1.67. Not many where interested apart from a $4000 bet for the Tigers with 2 points start ($1.90), and we were more than happy not to do any damage on the game when Wests won 52-12. Two $10,000 bets from NSW on the Bulldogs at -12½ points looked in danger when North Qld only trailed by six points at half time. The Bulldogs had extended that lead to 14 points with two minutes left on the clock, but a Cowboys mistake close to the line saw Nigel Vagana run the length of the field to put the issue beyond doubt. Canberra's 40-12 embarrassment of Cronulla went our way following late support for the Sharks. Bets of $4000 for a win ($3.40), and two $6000 wagers for them receiving nine points start balanced things up nicely after early money for Canberra, and we also got to hang on to bets of $10,000 and $4400 when the game total went over 47½ points. Similar bets were also placed on the Penrith v Roosters game being under 46½ points, and again the 'over' was the winner when the Roosters defeated Penrith 38-24 after leading 26-0 at halftime. Things return to normal this week after the 'rep' season. The Roosters are first up on Friday night, and while we thought they would beat Canberra, punters are taking the relatively short odds on offer. The first two bets we took were worth $14,000 at $1.30, as well as two $5000 bets for the Roosters conceding nine points start. New Zealand will be without playmaker Stacey Jones for a few weeks, and in our opinion that makes the Warriors a risk against Melbourne on Saturday. The Warriors have been long way short of impressive in recent wins, and look poor value at $1.70. The head is on the chopping block again as all the early trading has been for a New Zealand win, including a bet of $12,500 from Wellington at $1.75. Can Cronulla beat Brisbane on Saturday? On form, no way, but with some of the 'in-house' problems sorted out this week at the Sharks, and Brisbane minus a few troops, there is a slight chance. The Sharks have cost us a fortune this year, but this is one they can win. We have them at $2.50, with the Broncos at $1.52, and while Brisbane have been hard to sell at that price, there have been two bets of $4000 recorded at -5½ points. Newcastle really need a win to secure top 8 spot, and that should come at the expense of Manly on Sunday. With Johns back in the side, there has been no shortage of money for Newcastle through the multiples at $1.13, and also bets of $5500 and $3000 for them to beat a 15 point handicap. Manly have had some backing with the start, but the Knights look certain to start shorter. St George and Penrith both copped a hiding last week, and for differing reasons need a win this week. The Dragons are also in danger of missing the finals, and Penrith need victory to grab an all important top two finish. We opened Penrith slight fav's at $1.90, but a deluge of bets has seen that cut to $1.85, with St George out to $1.95. Penrith won the first match between these two back in round 9, but it was only by four points in a high scoring affair (30-26). This game should see plenty of the ball being thrown around, and it wouldn't surprise who grabs victory. RUGBY UNION Haven't the Wallabies copped some flak following last weekend's flogging by the All Blacks in Sydney? As things currently stand, the Aussies have a lot of work to do over the next three months before the World Cup kicks off on October 10. On current form they would be no certainties to win their Group against Ireland and Argentina. They are now out to $5.25 to win the Cup, and that is being totally ignored, with punters this week preferring the $2.20 that was available for New Zealand. While the All Blacks may be dominant on the field, they are not without their problems off it, and a current dispute over player's bonuses threatens to derail their World Cup aspirations. Last week's Bledisloe Cup match gave us an insight into how much betting there will be on the World Cup. There has been a steady stream of new accounts being opened with Centrebet from New Zealand, and one of those helped himself to the $1.40 for a New Zealand win with a $25,000 bet. There were also several $10,000 bets for the All Blacks to win, but there was more money for the Wallabies at $3. The eight point handicap that was set also took some heavy betting both ways, including $16,000 and £5000 for Australia at the plus, and bets of $12,750 and £5000 on New Zealand at the minus. When the dust had settled, we had a victory over punters, but from a patriotic point of view, it is sad to see where the Wallabies are currently at after losing their last three Tests. The All Blacks used to get criticised for kicking too much, and for not showing any flair, now the boot is on the other foot! Having said all that, Australia have been installed as warm favourites to defeat South Africa in Brisbane on Saturday. South Africa won 26-22 in Cape Town three weeks ago, and with several of the Australians under the microscope, this is a chance to restore some confidence. Punters agree, as there has hardly been bet for the Springboks in early trading, a sure sign that the odds for Australia are likely to firm later in the week. MOTOR BIKES The tight Reisa circuit couldn't really be blamed for the defeat of Valentino Rossi in last week's German MotoGP, it was just that Sete Gibernau proved too quick for the Italian on this occasion. Rossi went in as favourite at $1.57, but money had dried up for him late in the week. Preferences went to Max Biaggi ($4.50) and the winner Gibernau at $9, who was backed to win close to $20,000 in a series of bets. Gibernau and Rossi 'gapped' the rest, it was only a matter of who was going to be first up on the podium, but Biaggi's fall when he got into third place early in the race was very costly for a couple of punters. One of those, from Italy, visited our site three times to place a total of €7000 on Biaggi to finish on the podium at $1.65. It wasn't all bad news for him though as he had also placed €3000 on Gibernau to fill a placing at $2.10, but didn't back him to win the race. The bikes have a three week break now, and with Rossi's stranglehold broken, at least for the moment, we might still have a few good betting contests coming up, including the Australian GP at Philip Island in October. FORMULA ONE Hopefully there won't be any lunatic's running down the Hockenheim straight in this week's German Grand Prix like we had at Silverstone a fortnight ago. That race changed complexion after the incident, which saw Ruben's Barrichello grab an unexpected win. Michael Schumacher was the heavily backed favourite in Britain both before and after he was quickest during the Friday sessions, but Barrichello drew pole and eventually won the race, so maybe Ferrari appear to be back to their best. Naturally, a lot of our German clients have jumped into the $2.50, including two bets of €2000. Barrichello, who won this race back in 2000 when again there was a man on the track, has also been popular at $5.50, as well as a bet of $6000 to finish on the podium at $1.80. Williams have traditionally been strong at Hockenheim, but the track was changed in 2002, no longer going through the forests, and was increased from 45 to 67 laps. Schumacher is $2.50 to draw pole position, but most of the betting on that option has been for his brother Ralf ($5) and Barrichello, a $5.50 chance. BOXING Antwun "Kid Dynamite" Echols claims that he will beat Anthony Mundine inside five rounds in their super middleweight world title fight in Sydney next Wednesday, and no doubt there are plenty of Aussies who hope he can. Echols is playing the game, saying he is going to punish Mundine for his comments about September 11, and while this bout wouldn't normally cause too many ripples worldwide, we have already held a lot of money from not only Australia, but also Europe. Plenty of English clients have been taking advantage of some arbitrage opportunities globally. When we opened this bout up two months ago, Echols was slight favourite at $1.85, but over the past week we have taken in excess of £10,000 for Echols at $1.60 and $1.57. As much as $3.10 was available for Mundine with some Caribbean operators, but that has well and truly disappeared. We continue to see money from Europe, (and several Australians) for Echols at $1.57, but just as much is coming for Mundine, including an $8000 bet at $2.30. We rarely see high profile boxing during the middle of the week in Australia, but this one is sure to generate plenty of publicity next week, which will ensure that it is one of our bigger betting boxing bouts for the year. "The Man" though has been pretty quiet. GOLF In all the hustle and bustle of last week, we forgot to make mention of the British Open, won by Ben Curtis (Ben Who?) As is the case with any of the Majors, betting on the British Open was frantic from start to finish. Several players were backed to win $100,000 in a single bet, including Ernie Els, Padraig Harrington, and Darren Clarke. Ben Curtis was one of those players that nobody had ever heard of, and was way down the bottom of our betting lists at $301. No bets were taken before the start, and only a handful of small bets came for Curtis when he made the cut at $81. The honour of the biggest bet for the American who had only ever played a links course once before belonged to a Sydney client who placed $200 on Curtis after the third round at $34. Thomas Bjorn looked to have the title in his keeping with two holes to play, and the Dane was one of our worst results. Another Sydney punter had backed Bjorn ($67) to win $75,000, and before the tournament entered the last day, our Danish clients had backed Bjorn to win another 1 million DKK ($200,000). To say that there was a bit of difference in our book entering the last few holes would be an understatement, and if Ben Curtis never wins another event, it wont matter to Centrebet as he did us one big favour. Things were back to normal last week, but the focus of punters stayed in Europe with the Irish Open. Padraig Harrington started $7 favourite, attracting a $7000 bet from an Australian client, but he missed the cut. Thomas Bjorn went in as a $13 chance, but the Danes didn't want to be on him, possible thinking that he might not be right mentally after the finish of the British Open. He was however, and looked the winner going into the last round. At this stage we took a $3000 bet at $2.75, but in a three way play-off, Bjorn went down to Kiwi Michael Campbell, who returned from the wilderness. Campbell gets a chance to go on with it now in the Scandinavian Masters this week where he is our $13 equal favourite with Fredrik Jacobsen. Neither has attracted any support at this stage, but a couple behind them have. Brian Davis was backed to win $12,000 each way as soon as he opened at $26, while Niclas Fasth and Trevor Immelman, both $21 chances, have been backed to win a similar amount. Australia has a strong representation headed up by Adam Scott ($17), but the best backed of the Aussies has been Jarrod Moseley, who has been backed to win $6250 at $81 and $67. Tiger Woods returns to the Warwick Hills Golf and Country Club in Michigan this week to defend his Buick Open title. Last year, Tiger finished on 17 under, four shots ahead of Fred Funk, but hasn't really been in the best of form at his recent appearances. Given the quality of this week's field, the $2.75 for Woods is well over what he would have been in years gone by, and that is noticeable in that the biggest bet for Tiger so far has only been $1600. Second pick is Vijay Singh who is in to $10 after we accepted a $7000 bet at $11, while a rejuvenated Kenny Perry has been backed to take out just under $15,000 at $11 ENTERTAINMENT 'The Block' has taken Australia by storm over the past two months, with the reality show proving to be a ratings bonanza for Channel Nine. Although the show was recorded some months ago, the 'winners' will be the couple whose apartment brings the highest price at a public auction to be held in a few weeks, and we opened betting on who the winners will be this week. Ralph cover girl Fiona and her partner Adam have been installed as very warm favourites at $1.25. Three of their rooms have already won a weekly prize, and we think that they are advantaged by having a ground floor apartment, and of course a big profile. The first few bets, all small, were for the glamour couple, although the likeable duo of Warren and Gavin have also attracted a few bets at $4.50. Kylie and Paul are next in line at $5, but there is no interest in them, and there isn't any either in Phil and Amity being the victors at $34. We think they are up against it, a first floor apartment, and the renovations they have done are nowhere near as spectacular as the two on the ground floor, but they wouldn't be too disappointed as the show has catapulted Amity into what looks like being a promising recording career. We will also be covering the World Sauna Championships in Finland this week. Leo Pusa has made this event his own, having won it the past three years after being runner-up in 1999, and is favourite at $1.50. The Finn holds the record at just over 13 minutes, but will be hotly pressed by Ahti Merivirta, who won the inaugural event in 1999. Merivirta was second in 2001, but had didn't compete in 2000 and 2002, and looms as the main danger to Pusa at $3. It promises to be an exciting 'sweat out' if this duo makes it through to the final. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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