|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES The wheels have well and truly fallen off the St Kilda bandwagon after a whopping 46 point loss to Port Adelaide in Tasmania on Sunday. The Saints were never really in the hunt as Port handled the greasy conditions better than the side many were tipping to be premiers. St Kilda were favourites to take the title five weeks ago, but some ordinary losses since has seen them blow out to third picks at $5.50, and there is no interest in them at all at that price. While St Kilda started slight favourites at $1.80 in the game against Port, the bulk of support was for the South Australians. One Victorian punter placed two separate bets of $10,000 with six and five points start, as well as a bet of $9000 to win at $2.10. We were happy to take the money for Port thinking the Saints would get out of their form slump, but we got it totally wrong! One extremely brave punter risked $28,000 to win $280 (yes, that's $1.01!!) at three quarter time on Port to win. Granted they were up by 36 points at the time, but we have seen teams lead by similar margins and get beaten. Six favourites won on the weekend, but only two of those covered the handicaps, so it was a round that went clearly to the bookies. The first and last games of the round was where punters paid the penalty, with shock losses suffered by Essendon and Melbourne. Essendon turned a 25 point lead during the third quarter into a 21 point deficit at the finish against the Kangaroos. There had been money for the Roos at $2.90, but nothing like the public support for Essendon, not only to win but also beat the handicap of 16 points. There was also a double of $50,000 that kicked off with Essendon (-16½) into Melbourne Storm to beat Penrith (they did, by 66-14), so the last quarter capitulation by the Bombers cost one punter a tick over $131,000. Carlton could have done us a huge favour had they been able to put the Sydney Swans away on Saturday, but while they were over-run in the last quarter to go down by 11 points, they at least stayed under the handicap. The Swans were backed from $1.55 into $1.40. A client from Melbourne invested a total of $80,000 on Sydney, with three bets totaling $50,000 placed on them to win at $1.55 and $1.50, followed up by $15,000 at -17½ ($1.90) and another $15,000 at -22½ ($2.10). Richmond gave Brisbane, and a few punters, a big scare when they took it right up to the Lions at the Gabba on Saturday night. The Tigers were in a winning position for all of the game, but a couple of late Brisbane goals saw the home side get home by 18 points. It is amazing how these sides who have a coaching change can improve in the following match (Danny Frawley hasn't left yet, but did advise last week he was going). Richmond went into the game as $8 chances, with the handicap moving from -48½ out to -53½ for Brisbane once Richmond forward Matthew Richardson was ruled out. Those who conceded the big start lost, but two others who took the $1.06 for Brisbane to win ($40,000 and $20,000) would have had a nervous last quarter. Adelaide did have an official coaching change from the last time they played, and interim coach Neil Craig got a dream start to the new job when Adelaide thrashed Melbourne by 12 goals. Strangely, Adelaide were hard to lay, with Melbourne firming from $1.70 into $1.60. There was also plenty of multiples still 'alive' with Melbourne, so we were happy to see the Crows get up. That result has meant that Adelaide, along with a few others, still have a glimmer of hope in regards to playing in this years finals series. Their game against Sydney this week is very important to both, as Sydney need wins to consolidate their shaky hold in the eight. The Swans are fav's at $1.42, but early betting has been for the Crows to not only win, but get within 18 points. Collingwood need to win nearly every remaining match to make the finals, and they are $1.80 this week to beat Geelong and continue the battle to play off. Geelong's form has been impeccable, and they would not have lost too many friends with their two point loss to the Eagles last week. The problem they have is the hoodoo that sides returning from the west have, and that has meant there is hardly any interest in them this week. Collingwood will go in as favourites, and if as expected they name Chris Tarrant, they will start much shorter than what they are now. A few cracks are appearing in the Essendon side, and I know we have said this before, but we are going to give Richmond one last chance (for the hundredth time) when they meet each other on Saturday. The Tigers displayed some real commitment last week, and another exhibition like that would see them beat Essendon. We have gone after Essendon this week, taking two early bets of $10,000 for them to win at $1.45, as well as nearly $13,000 for them at -15½ points start. Money has seen Melbourne elevated to favourites at $1.75 against St Kilda in Sunday's match after they opened at $1.85. The Saints have fallen foul of punters, and the tribunal, and have been impossible to sell in this game, whereas nearly $15,000 was placed on Melbourne in early trading. Brisbane's premiership price has been cut to $2.10, but the big mover has been Port, now into $5 after being double that last week. They, like Brisbane, have a good draw, and if Melbourne can beat St Kilda this week, then Brisbane and Port look likely to finish at the top of the ladder, a big advantage. Nigel Lappin and Chris Judd have joined Mark Riccuito at the head of Brownlow betting at $7. It really is a raffle at this stage, and last week we took another bet of $1000 for James Hird at $8, but another Essendon loss has seen his price drift to $11. RUGBY LEAGUE New South Wales wrapped up this years State of Origin series with a comprehensive 36-14 point drubbing of Queensland on Wednesday night, and bookies around the country reported huge losses to loyal NSW punters. Around $1.65 was available for NSW a week before the game, and there was still some $1.60 around 24 hours out, but punters came out with all guns blazing on Wednesday, with the Blues backed in to $1.40, and even at that quote we couldn't stop the flow. We were of the opinion that while Queensland had never won at Telstra Stadium, they had done enough in their victory at home, and in the 9-8 loss in the first game, to think that they had a realistic hope of winning the decider. We wrong on that count, and also wrong thinking that patriotic Queenslanders would back the Maroons, as the only significant bets we took from the Sunshine State were two $5000 and three $2000 bets to win. Thankfully, a couple of our English clients took up some of the slack, with bets of $30,000 at +7½ points start ($1.90), and also a win bet of $10,000 at $2.90. New South Wales on the other hand were backed as if the result was already known. Late on Wednesday we took our biggest ever 'Origin' bet of $200,000 for the Blues to win at $1.48 (from a Sydney punter), also taking a late bet of $30,000 at -6½ and two $20,000 bets at $1.45. At least we were out of our misery early and didn't have to worry about a 'nail-biting' finish, as it was evident well before the half time score-line of 18-8 in favour of the Blues that the trophy was going to be staying in Sydney. Not only did Queensland suffer a beating on the scoreboard, they also suffered one physically, and several key players are in doubt for their respective sides this week. That is always the problem following these games, and Brisbane are normally the worst affected, and it looks like it will again be the case on Friday night. The Bronco's have to play a rampaging Dragons, with injury concerns to Carlaw, Tait and Lockyer. Brisbane were already $2.40 outsiders, but they have now moved out to $2.70, or 7½ points start, as punters jump into the Dragons. Matt Sing's broken jaw would not be the news that North Qld would be wanting as they go to Canberra, and that has also had an affect on the betting in that game. We had seen little business, but with Sing out, moved the handicap from 10½ to 12½ in favour of Canberra. Straight away there was money for Canberra, and they also look certain to start shorter. Another favourite that has firmed is Manly, but anyone prepared to take short odds the Sea Eagles at the moment is a very brave person! Scott Prince may be a withdrawal form the Tigers' side, and that saw about $12,000 worth of bets come for Manly at $1.75, with money continuing to come at $1.67. This game also has an impact on the wooden spoon as if Manly can win, that will see Souths shorten up significantly from the $1.90 they currently are, assuming that they don't beat Penrith on Sunday. Whilst mentioning the wooden spoon, there hasn't been one single bet placed on the Roosters this week following the 'leak' of last week! TENNIS Maria Sharapova may be now know as the 'Siberian Siren', but she is also a pin-up girl with bookmakers following her demolition of Serena Williams in last Saturday's women’s final at Wimbledon. Sharapova went into the final as rank outsider at $4.60, and while there were three separate bets of $4000 placed on her at that quote (all from Australia), her victory was a monstrous result. Serena Williams had been the short priced favourite since betting opened, and there was any amount of support for her in the final itself at $1.20, including $25,000 and $15,000 wagers, also form Australians. Williams was also coupled up in some rather large doubles with Roger Federer to win the men’s title, and as he was already a terrible result for Centrebet, it was good to get the Williams/Federer combination out of the road. Federer had been a short priced since betting opened a month prior to a ball being served. We took some hefty doubles that included Federer and France to win Euro 2004, which would have meant a payout of close to $1million, which only goes to reinforce why Greece are our favourite football side at the moment! Federer was only $2.50 pre-tournament, but we put our faith in Lleyton Hewitt beating him when they met in the quarter finals, so we were prepared to take Federer 'on' during the first week, and we were certainly accommodated! One of our most astute Swedish clients backed Federer five times, placing nearly 500,000 SEK ($ AUD 100,000) on Federer at $2. Amazingly, he did get out to that price during the third set of the final when Andy Roddick led 4-2, but Federer showed his class to win in four sets. GOLF Stephen Ames won his first PGA tour event on the weekend at his 166th attempt when he captured the Cialis Western Open. Ames' two shot victory over Steve Lowery was a reward for a consistent season which has included eight top ten finishes from his last ten starts. It is also a successful accumulation of money as it places him the top ten tour money leaders and in elite company with Mickelson, Singh, Els, Woods and Scott. Not bad for a boy from Trinidad and Tobago who is the only touring professional that country has produced, and the win is even more satisfying as players of the calibre of Woods and Appleby were in winning positions entering the final round but were only able to produce closing rounds of 71 and 72 respectively. Luke Donald and Mark Hensby both closed with encouraging rounds of four under par 67 to finish in a tie for third, three shots behind the winner however Ames one under par round was enough to hold on for a two shot victory. Good money for Woods at $5, Singh at $8 and Jerry Kelly at $41 all went astray although the winner did have his admirers at $3.50 leading into the final round carrying several wagers, the largest being $1000. This week the PGA tour heads East to Illinois for the John Deere Classic with defending champion Vijay Singh a solid $5 favourite from experienced campaigners Stewart Cink , Chris DiMarco and Shigeki Maruyama all at $19. A win which would catapult Singh back to the head of the money list, a position the lanky Fijian is determined to keep. This event has not attracted too much interest from the punting public with roughies Pat Perez, $81 and D.A Points $151 both backed to win in excess of $30,000, best supported. On the European tour South African Retief Goosen showed his U.S Open victory two weeks earlier was no fluke with a comprehensive victory in the Smurfitt European Open. Goosen closed with a four under par 68 to record a five shot victory over Australians' Richard Green and Peter O'Malley, and Englishman Lee Westwood a duel winner at the K Club. Goosen displayed the same unflappable qualities which proved so invaluable at Shinnecock Hills a fortnight ago proving his opening quote of $10 in this event was indeed over the odds. Goosen carried several wagers of $500 each way at $10 forcing his price into $9 at tee off, while other notables well supported included Padraig Harrington, $12,Nick O'Hern, $26 and Lee Westwood at $51, ensuring we had little to cheer about entering the final round. The tour heads to Scotland this week for the Barclay's Scottish Open with Ernie Els defending champion and favourite at $5.50 extremely well supported in a star studded field. Els was successful here in 2000 and 2003 so the worlds number two has an opportunity to close the gap further on Tiger Woods in the race for number one. Phil Mickelson is second pick at $8 from Irishman Darren Clarke at $17 and Englishman Paul Casey at $21 while others well supported include Lee Westwood at $34, Colin Montgomerie, $67 and resurgent Australian Richard Green at $51.This promises to be a high quality and exciting event leading into next weeks British Open. On the subject of the British Open, Centrebet opened its market for the event this week with Ernie Els and Tiger Woods equal favourite at $7.50 from Mickelson at $12 and Singh at $13, however the significance of the betting is that it has been seven years since Tiger Woods was not sole favourite in a golfing event, a trend which may well continue if the Tiger does not find form, winning form, and fast. RUGBY UNION The All Blacks have the opportunity this week to put beyond any conceivable doubt that they are deserved $1.85 favourites to win this years Tri Nations trophy. The Wallabies were made to work hard last week in securing a 29-15 victory over the Pacific Island Warriors in the historical inaugural test in Adelaide by outscoring the hardy visitors five tries to two. The game never reached great heights as a spectacle due to the severity of the weather with expansive rugby never a real option however things may be a little different this week as the Islanders strive to gain International recognition and the opportunity to be enter the Super 12 competition. The All Blacks go into the game with a full strength squad and the reputation as the top Rugby nation in the world after two demolitions of the English pack and a clinical dissection of the pumas, all be it at home. The betting on this game has the All Blacks favourites at $1.03 and giving 28½ points while the Islanders are $13 and may represent value at the start given the return of Brian Lima and an opportunity to match it with the worlds best. Stay tuned for fireworks in this encounter with entertaining rugby assured. ELECTIONS Quite often the activity in the betting markets isn't a true reflection of what opinion polls say, but the events of the past week involving Mark Latham's past have had an affect on not only people's opinion of him, but also in the betting ring. Things have been rolling along nicely with waves of support for both Labor and the Coalition, but the Coalition have moved from $1.70 three weeks ago into $1.55 as of Wednesday of this week. Three bets of $10,000 have been placed on the Coalition in that time, the last of those coming this week at $1.60. Since the weekend's news of Mark Latham's alleged treatment of fellow workers, we have only taken one bet for Labor, and that was $40 at $2.20. This election is a long way from being over, and I am sure that the Labor Party would still have a few aces up their sleeves, but for the time being, John Howard is firming quickly to lead the country again after this election, whenever it may be held. Just on that, Centrebet doesn't accept bets on when an election will be held as obviously there would be a group of people within the Howard Government who would have already decided that. CRICKET After the flogging that Sri Lanka received in the first Test against Australia in Darwin, all eyes will be on them to see if they can restore some credibility in Cairns this week. As an added bonus, there is also a lot of speculation as to whether or not Shane Warne will break the record for wickets taken, and we have opened up a market on that. Warnie needs seven wickets to equal the record, and that is $8, while six and under is $1.35 with eight and over at $3.65. The stats suggest will be difficult, as he has averaged 5.7 wickets per Test for the last four years, and only 4.3 wickets against Sri Lanka. The other thing working against him will be if the Sri Lankan batting attack collapses like it did in Darwin, then Warne may not get the opportunities. But to prove how popular Warne is with punters, most of the bets have been for him to break the record. There has been one bet of $3000 for him not to, and while the stats say it will be difficult, you can never write him off. Unlike the Darwin test, there hasn't been a flood of money for the draw in Cairns. That option is basically unwanted at $3.75, with Australia attracting three early bets totaling $40,000 at $1.45. There are a few optimists who think Sri Lanka can improve their batting, with the $8 being popular with smaller punters. FORMULA ONE For a change, a win by Michael Schumacher didn't result in a major loss for Centrebet in last weeks French Grand Prix. Schumacher started the race at $1.40, and although there were bets of €2500 and $4000 placed on Schumacher, the late money was for quickest qualifier, and eventual runner-up, Fernando Alonso. The $5.50 was taken with two separate bets of €1000, both from Germany, and there was also plenty of smaller bets taken. We also received a bonus when Takuma Sato was forced out of the race during the second lap as he had had a bet of $8000 placed on him to beat home Marc Gene, who was filling in for the injured Ralf Schumacher. One of the better betting Grand Prix's is always the British Grand Prix, but unfortunately Michael Schumacher's domination has made the 'race betting' a bit of a non event, but that has seen increases in other bet types. The German is $1.35, and only an accident or major mechanical problems can stop those prepared to take the short odds from collecting. Alonso has had a bet of €2000 (from Austria) placed on him to finish on the podium, and we have also taken three bets to the value of $8000 for Barrichello to finish amongst the placings at $2. SPECIAL EVENTS The first prize to the winner of the World Wife Carrying Championships is their 'wife’s' weight in beer, and this year that prize went to Madis Uusorg, who carried petite Inga Klauso to victory in 1 minute, 53 seconds. Uusorg went in as favourite at $1.75, with an added incentive of an extra prize to the winners, that being a portable wooden sauna and steam bath. Our form analysts perceived that the Estonian may be some risk as he had had hamstring trouble in the Estonian finals. We haven't been able to find out if Madis is related to ex champ Margo Uusorg, but with a surname like that, one would think he was. Madis also adopted the 'Estonian Carry' made famous by Margo Uusorg, and only had to carry one kilo of 'dead weight' as Klauso weighed in at 48 kilos, one kilo under the required minimum. It was an exciting event which looked like being won by the host nation (Finland) when local couple Taisto Miettinen and Eija Stenberg (well backed second favourites at $2.45) set the time standard of 1min 53 seconds. Uusorg and his partner were the last of the 27 couples to traverse the 253 metre course, and put up a Herculean performance to win 48 kilo's of beer, not forgetting the wooden sauna! Closer to home, German Markus Pie per won the 16th World Hot Air Balloon Championships at the weekend. Pieper was a $51 chance in our market, and only attracted one very small bet to win. Germany took the quinella when Uwe Shneider ran second, with Australian Paul Gibbs filling third placing. Whilst not favourite, Gibbs was easily our worst result as many thought he would have a home ground -- or should that be home air -- advantage. Gibbs was backed to win close to $10,000, and firmed from $15 into $9. The next championship will be held in Japan in two years time. SOCCER Our big fat Greek winnings. Those five words that sound like a Hollywood hit movie sum up Euro 2004 for us and, dare we say it, every other bookmaker under the sun. We were preparing for our launch as the southern hemisphere's first online sports betting agency when Denmark came from the beach to win the 1992 European Championship as a late replacement for Yugoslavia. That was one of soccer's biggest upsets ever. Greece's title triumph is soccer's biggest upset ever. Period. Despite qualifying for Euro 2004 as the winner of its preliminary pool, Greece was a title roughie before the tournament kicked off. We thought that the Greeks were the third least likely team to win the championship prior to their 2-1 defeat of the Portuguese in the opening game. Only the Latvians and the Swiss were trading at longer odds. Some of our punters took $1.25 that Greece would not qualify for the last eight. Most of our clients thought that the Greeks were hopeless, although there were a few who correctly identified that they were the real deal. One of our Sydney clients who won $105,000 from a $15,000 wager when Greece put France away promptly rang back and had another $15,000 on the Greeks to win the final at $10! Two bets, two wins, all up a total of $240,000 profit! Every Greece match, including its shock 2-1 loss to Russia in the final round of group games, was financially rewarding from our perspective. The title decider was the sort of result of which we lie awake dreaming when it is too warm to sleep. We made a profit on every conventional option that we offered. Indeed, the only positive outcome for our punters was that Portugal maintained its run of taking the first corner kick. Our clients took a fancy to that wager, backing it from $1.70 to $1.48. We cannot talk about the Greeks without mentioning the Athens Games. Once again, we will offer odds on every gold medal. That is correct. We will offer odds on every gold medal. So when the fun starts in the second week of August, do not think about looking anywhere else for Games wagers. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
