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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES Just when we were set to declare Fremantle couldn't make this years final eight, the Dockers come out and do what they have always struggled to achieve -- a win away from home! The two goal win by Fremantle over Adelaide was against the odds, as the Dockers went in rank outsiders at $2.80. There was plenty going through the Crows in multiples, but as we said last week, the Dockers making the finals is an ordinary result for Centrebet, so we would have been more than happy to see them beaten. It wasn't to be, and that has seen Fremantle's final eight odds firm from $1.90 last week into $1.35 this week. The Friday night match between West Coast and Essendon turned out to be a bizarre betting affair. We spent four days taking bets for the West Coast, including wagers of $20,000, and $10,000 (twice) at $1.50, and there was hardly any interest in Essendon at $2.60. Then the late withdrawal of the West Coasts' Ben Cousins saw a late flurry for the Bombers, including two 'win' bets of $4000, and nearly $25,000 with 13½ points start. Essendon were thrashed by 44 points and who knows how much the margin would have been had Cousins played! We have given up on Richmond, but some punters hadn't judging by the support for them to beat St Kilda last week. Bets of $10,000 ($3.60), $8000 ($3.50) and another of $20,000 with 26½ points start were placed on Richmond, but they continued on with their abysmal form to be beaten by 44 points by St Kilda. A bet of $25,000 at $1.90 was landed when Brisbane overcame a 22½ point handicap against Collingwood on Saturday night. In atrocious conditions, the game was tight until half time, but Brisbane exploded away in the third quarter to put the issue beyond doubt. Sunday wasn't a good day when all three favourites won, landing one punter a win of $38,500 from a wager of $35,000. The Sydney Swans gave us a great sight against Geelong, but eventually went down by 15 points. This week looks to be a predictable round on paper, with the eight favourites to win equating to $7.60 on Tuesdays prices. These days, that is about as short as it can get, and on current form, all look hard to beat. St Kilda firmed from an opening $1.40 into $1.38 against Essendon on Friday night at Telstra Dome. Essendon have confirmed that James Hird will be missing for at least another two weeks, and although St Kilda emerged from a form slump against a poor Richmond side last week, it is hard to see any decent money coming for Essendon. That did change today (Thursday), when following on from Aaron Hamill pulling out of the St Kilda side, a bet of $10000 was placed on Essendon at $2.90. One early shopper has placed $15,000 on Brisbane at $1.08 to beat Adelaide on Saturday night, and he does look certain to win $1200, but it is extremely short odds for a side without Jonathon Brown, and a small injury cloud on another other key forward, Alistair Lynch. The handicap there is 42½ points, and there has been money both ways. One of the first bets for the week was $6000 for Collingwood conceding 14½ points start to the Bulldogs, and while the Bulldogs have been nearly as disappointing as Collingwood this year, one has to wonder about Collingwood's 'fade out' in the wet last Saturday night. Naturally the Bulldogs don’t have the class of Brisbane, but this is one of those type of matches that they win each year. We have already taken close to $20,000 in multiples for the three Sunday favourites, which currently works out at $1.67 but looks certain to start shorter. Currently, we can't get anything out of the underdogs in each game, and even at the massive starts each is receiving, there is little or no action. There hasn't been too much change to the premiership market, but things are on the move in the Brownlow. Chris Judd is favourite at $6.50 after last weeks best on field performance, but that was matched by Jeff White ($7) and Nigel Lappin ($8), who have also firmed. It's a real bottleneck at the top of the betting, and with several of these players involved playing for sides who have a good run into the end of the season, there looks to be several realistic chances. Still we continue to see money for James Hird at $26, even though he probably hasn't received a vote for eight weeks! RUGBY LEAGUE Punters didn't fare too well from round nineteen of NRL action when only three of the seven favourites covered their respective handicaps. The biggest shock for the weekend was Wests Tigers regaining some form to put Melbourne Storm away 32-18, in what was a pretty spiteful match. We have all seen the footage of Danny Williams alleged 'king hit' on Mark O'Neill, and that has kept that match in the headlines all over the country for the entire week. Punters who took the short odds Melbourne wouldn't need reminding of what happened, as they went in one of the best backed sides of the round. The $1.40 was taken, and we also saw bets of $20,000 and $10,000 for the Storm conceding 7½ points start. On the same night (Sat), North Queensland kept their finals hopes alive with a resounding 28-6 win over Parramatta. Although the Cowboys were slight outsiders at $2, the bulk of the bets, albeit small, were for them. They are going to rue some of the missed opportunities early in the season, but are still some hope $31 of contesting the finals series. Sunday saw all three NRL and AFL favourites win, and that wasn't good news! The multi's payout was massive, and at least two of the NRL games Auckland v Souths and Brisbane v Newcastle, could have went the other way. In the other match, two $10,000 bets were placed on the Bulldogs to beat an 8 point spread against Cronulla, and they did so, winning 37-26. This week, we are faced with many short priced favourites, and to be truthful, it is hard to see how any of them can be beaten. Wests Tigers rarely feature in the game of the round on Friday night, but this week they do, and they face the daunting task of hosting the Bulldogs. The Tigers showed glimpses of brilliance last week, but punters could not have been too impressed as the Bulldogs ($1.30) are already coupled up in every major multiple for the weekend, and there has also been nearly $15,000 placed on them conceding 10½ points start. Michael Devere is out of the Brisbane side for the rest of the season, but all agree that the Bronco's will thrash Manly on Saturday. Manly are $6.50, or +18½, and we have taken less than $50 for them in total, whereas close to $50,000 has already gone on Brisbane through the multiples. Melbourne, back at Olympic Park, have been a big go in their match against Parramatta. The Storm at home are hard to beat, and Parra are returning from the tropics, but we didn't expect to see the avalanche of support that has come for the Storm, who are now into $1.25 with the handicap fast approaching 12 points. St George Illawarra have named a strong side for Sunday's match against Cronulla, and while there must still be some doubt over Trent Barret, punters disagree. The Dragons have already firmed from $1.42 into $1.35, and nearly $25,000 has been placed on them at -9½ points. While that seems short enough, if some of the early favourites salute like they should, all of these 'Sunday favourites' will firm dramatically as the weekend progresses, so it may not be a bad idea if you fancy them to bet early, that might well prove to be the best time to secure the best odds. RUGBY Unfortunately for the injury hit Wallabies the Bledisloe Cup will remain in the Island of the Long White Cloud for at least another twelve months after the All Blacks dominated the first game of the Tri Nations/Bledisloe Cup competition with an impressive 16-7 victory at Westpac Stadium, Wellington. Played in atrocious conditions the All Blacks dominated possession and territory while the Wallabies on the back of a Stephen Larkham shocker struggled to get out their own twenty. The game was not a crowd pleaser and the Wallabies may have failed in their bid to win back the Bledisloe Cup however the margin of 9 points means that the Wallabies are still in the race for the Tri Nations. Betting now has the All Blacks $1.40 favourite with the Wallabies drifting to $4.50 and the Springboks still on the third line of betting at $8. Given the weight of possession and better conditions the Tri nations may have already been a fait accomplis however the return of George Gregan and a victory over the Springboks in Perth may still give the Wallabies a realistic chance given a win in Sydney. This weeks test between the All Blacks and Springboks in Christchurch has the home team firm favourite at $1.16 and giving 13½ points while the Springboks are $5.25. This game has seen little money given the deluge for the All Blacks last week however the scare of a stomach bug filtering through the New Zealand camp may have punters on the back foot until more is revealed. The Boks have now won four tests in a row, their last loss to the All Blacks in Melbourne at last years World Cup, so the result of this game will go a long way in revealing where they are on the World Rugby stage. Either way its sure to be one mighty tussle with the Springbok pack out to prove a point. GOLF Last weeks British Open proved another nightmare for punters when Todd Hamilton defeated tournament favourite Ernie Els in a play off. Hamilton continued the U.S dominance at the Open as he was the eighth American to claim the Claret Jug in the last ten years and like last years winner, Ben Curtis, started at the long odds of 330/1. Not one wager was placed on the American prior to the final round which was in complete contrast to Els who was backed to win $200,000 in one wager alone from a South African client along with a host of other wagers from the rank and file public. Others well tried included Tiger Woods, $20,000 at $8, Vijay Singh, $15,000 at $14, Darren Clarke, $2500 at $51 and Davis Love, $5000 at $31, while the rank and file warmed to other top flight players including Phil Mickelson, Lee Westwood, Retief Goosen and Australian Adam Scott , all of whom had good recent form. The final round commenced with Hamilton holding a one shot lead over Els with a further shot back to the two Majors' winners of this year Mickelson and Goosen with a further two shots back to Tiger Woods lurking ominously. Not a good leader board for Centrebet. The $9 on offer Hamilton attracted only a moderate amount of business which was surprising for a player who had numerous victories on the Asian tour before gaining his PGA tour card for this season and then being successful at the Honda Classic in March , holding off a late challenge from Davis Love. Far superior form to that of Ben Curtis. Nevertheless Els led the betting on the final day at $3.25 from Mickelson and Goosen both $5.50 , Hamilton, and then Woods at $13. The anticipated excitement of the final day turned to amazement as the worlds top players turned on some scintillating golf, particularly a 20 minute spell early in day which saw holed bunker shots and pitch in eagles and a leader board where up to a dozen players had a realistic chance of winning. However as the field turned for home it became obvious the initiative had been seized by Hamilton, Els and Mickelson, with the rookie American holding his nerve through a tension packed inward nine. The fact the Claret Jug was won in a four hole play off was a fitting end to a magnificent contest, the fact it was won by a player in his rookie year on the PGA tour made it even more remarkable. This week our attention turns back to the States for the U.S Bank Championship in Milwaukee where defending champion Kenny Perry is favourite at $10 from Scott Verplank and K.J Choi both at $13 then Kirk Tripplett at $23. All three players had a great British Open finishing in the top twenty and deserve their place at the top of the betting. Verplank has been backed to win in excess of $100,000 along with Mark Calcavecchia at the attractive price of $41, while duel winners on the track, Jeff Sluman and Scott Hoch are well in the betting at $34. The problem presenting itself for the favourites in this event is the trip back from the U.K and the short time span to prepare for the event. On the European tour Darren Clarke is on the top line of betting for the Nissan Irish Open at $9 from home grown favourite Padraig Harrington at $11, Michael Campbell $13 and Ian Poulter and Trevor Immelman at $19. Best supported here have been Englishmen Clarke and Poulter both to the tune of $100,000 from a Sydney client, however defending champion Campbell may have a say in the finish given his return to form culminating in a tie for 20th at last weeks Open. This may not be the British Open however it still attracts some of the worlds best golfers so the winner of the event will know he has been in a contest. CRICKET England performed poorly during the recent one day series between themselves, New Zealand and the West Indies, and from our point of view, we hope that they continue with that poor form when the play the West Indies in the first test beginning at Lords tonight ! There has been money for the draw from our Indian friends, including an opening $ USD 20,000 at $2.35, and the same bet again at $2.30, but the weather looks like it wont be a big factor, so we are prepared to go with the draw at a shorter quote. The style of cricket that the West Indians play these days also points towards an early finish. The English batting ranks have been knocked around with the withdrawal of Mark Butcher, who hurt his neck in a car accident early in the week. He will be replaced by Robert Key, who has got off to a terrific start in the domestic competition this season. Compared to many overseas markets, we are also in play to lay England at $2.30, and there have been dozens of English clients helping themselves to that, with the biggest of those bets being 3000 pounds. Betting will be updated at the end of each days play. ATHENS GAMES The countdown is on for this year's Athens Games, and while most would know that Centrebet will again be betting on each and every Gold Medal, some events will open a little earlier than others once a completed competitor list is known. We have opened up the men's and women's basketball medal betting, and also betting is available on finishing positions. Below is our expert analyst's explanation of what we think will eventuate in Athens. Athens Basketball. Women: Current Olympic and World Champion, the USA, are definitely the team to beat. They remained undefeated during both of those tournaments and will bring to Athens what is arguably a stronger team. Swin Cash, Sue Bird and rookie sensation Diana Taurasi, when added to the veterans of previous campaigns such as Leslie, Swoopes, Staley and Thompson gives this team a formidable combination of talent and experience and all Gold Medal aspirants know that the path to Athens Gold goes through the USA. Others with strong claims include the silver medal winners from the last two major tournaments, Australia (Sydney 2000) and Russia (World Championships 2002). Australia were 22 points adrift in Sydney whilst a strong second half saw Russia get to within 5 points of the USA in the Gold Medal game at the Worlds. Others with realistic medal hopes include Brazil (Bronze medal 2000) who are always competitive but bring quite an inexperienced squad to Athens, Korea who finished 4th in 2000 and 2002 but who were surprisingly beaten by Japan at the Asian Championships which relegated them to 3rd place and the Czech Republic who are the emerging talent from Europe. They failed to qualify for either of the last two major Championships but they have been able to turn recent successes at the junior level into quality performances in open company. Their only loss at the European Championships was by 3 points to Russia in the gold medal game and providing their top player, Lucie Blahouskova, is fully recovered from recent knee surgery they are very likely to contend for medals in Athens. Medal Tips: GOLD: USA SILVER: CZECH REPUBLIC BRONZE: RUSSIA Men: The Men’s tournament promises to be the most competitive in Olympic history. Sydney 2000 Gold Medal winners the USA finished a disappointing 6th at the World Championships in 2002 and will be out to avenge that result. The reality is that only two of the original invitees (Duncan and Iverson) accepted and many others also made themselves unavailable. They have still been able to assemble a talented squad that will be well coached by Larry Brown but merely turning up is no longer a guarantee of even a medal, let alone a gold one. One of the main contenders are current European Champions, Lithuania, who were undefeated in winning that title and who failed by just two points to defeat the USA in the semi final round at Sydney. Another definite threat is Argentina whose silver medal performance at the World Championships was full of merit as one of their stars, Manu Ginobili, was restricted by an ankle injury sustained during that event. The reigning World Champion, Serbia and Montenegro cannot be discounted even though their task will be made more difficult if the early reports that Peja Stojakovic will be unavailable prove to be correct. European silver medallists Spain have had a change of coach since that tournament but should figure prominently at the business end of this event based if nothing else on their defeat of USA in the playoff for 5th and 6th at the Worlds. The sleeper of the event may well prove to be Greece. Although guaranteed a start as the host nation their 5th placing in the very strong European Championships indicates they will not just be making up the numbers. If the home town support translates into a tangible benefit they also become a strong medal chance. China led by Yao Ming are due to emerge and whilst their realistic aim is a top 8 finish, at that stage of the event you are only one win away from contending for a medal The quality and depth in this event indicates that the 4th placegetters from the last Olympics and Worlds, Australia and New Zealand respectively, appear outclassed. Medal Tips: GOLD: LITHUANIA SILVER: USA BRONZE: ARGENTINA ENTERTAINMENT Ryan Fitzgerald's mates have certainly created an uproar surrounding Big Brother evictions over the past week. Apparently they have been selling t-shirts on the Gold Coast, and using the funds to ring up and evict one of the contestants. There are two trains of thought here, the first being that that is totally unfair, and the other being that it is no different to radio stations and media outlets canvassing the same way. Any fair minded person would see both sides to the argument, but for the time being, we have ditched betting on the final evictions. It has never been clear how many people actually ring up or 'sms' in for Big Brother, and we suspect that the figure would be so high that a few blokes selling t-shirts couldn't have an impact anyway, but out there in the public is the perception that it might matter, so given how little we hold on the evictions, we'll keep away from them for this week. Betting on the overall winner is open however, and Trevor is now a lukewarm favourite as he will be missing from Friday's eviction. Our tip is that Bree will go Friday, leaving the three guys left, and who knows what will happen after that. Ryan is still popular with punters even though his mates may have thrown a spanner in the works, but Trevor's chances have improved greatly as he isn't up for eviction. Trevor is now $1.60, with Ryan out to $2.75, Paul at $8, and Bree the outsider at $21. This week we are also covering 'The Block', which will be decided by auction on Saturday and Sunday. The internal feuds have kept the interest up in this series, and from what we have seen, the auctions of each unit might be very close. They have been open to the public for a few weeks, and several stories in the local press point the same way, that any of the four could win. However, what has been presented on TV so far has been that perhaps Jason and Kirsten, who won the most rooms, have the best unit, and for that reason we priced them up as favourites at $2.50. Early in betting, nearly $800 came for that duo at that quote, but there has been money for all four. Apparently the top two units have very little, if any, sea views, so that makes it that little bit harder for them, while three apartments (excluding Andrew and Jamie's) have been renovated towards a certain sector. For that reason, we are predicting that the winners will be Andrew and Jamie ($4.50) which will shock a few as their apartment has been conveyed as the 'plainest', but in this instance, that might be the major selling point! Betting will be open until the first auction begins on Saturday morning. ELECTIONS It is hard to keep election betting out of the news at the moment as there are so many things going on in both the USA and Australia that are affecting the markets on upcoming elections. There has been plenty of activity on the US election coinciding with the release of Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11.Prior to that, John Kerry had been the $2 outsider, but has joined George Bush at $1.85. The largest bet taken was $5000 from Minnesota at $2, but there have been several bets on the way down to the current price in the vicinity of $500, many from the USA. On the other hand, Bush is at a best priced $1.85, and some who jumped in early and took much shorter several bets taken at $1.30 the day Saddam Hussein was captured) are now helping themselves to the better odds, including one bet of $3000 from a new American client this week. When all the fuss of Moore's movie dies down, one of the candidates will emerge as a clear favourite, it is now just a matter of trying to predict who that will be. The US election also has some bearing on what has been happening in Australia as the general consensus is that if the USA were to go to the polls before Australia, and George Bush was to fall, then that might well spell the end of John Howard's reign. That has seen a prediction surface that we may go to the polls in October, and for the time being the Howard led Coalition maintain their status as firm favourites at $1.55. FORMULA ONE Amazingly, Michael Schumacher has an ordinary record (by his standards) at the German Grand Prix having only won it twice at the Hockenheim circuit, but that hasn't seen us take too many chances as he is still a $1.33 chance to win this week. Having already won ten of the eleven races this season, Schumacher probably should be shorter, but in another interesting twist, there is money for others, but not him, this week. The previous record would have something to do with that, but Ferrari can wrap up the sixth consecutive constructors championship if Schumacher (or of course Barrichello) can win, so that is added incentive for him on his home track. Barrichello is second favourite at $5.50, with Kimi Raikkonen next in line at $10. The Finn has been backed to take out just on $15,000, and also to win half that amount to finish on the podium at $2.20. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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