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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES We certainly wouldn't want too many weekends like the last round of AFL or we might have to shut our doors! Eight games, eight favourites, with seven of those covering the handicap. That made it 15 from 16 favourites, so it was little wonder that the computer nearly went into melt down when we paid out Sunday's matches. The only salvation came when the Western Bulldogs were backed for a fortune to beat Collingwood, and we also took a stand against Carlton, getting one bet alone of $25,000 for the Blues with 25½ points start against Geelong, which was nowhere near enough. Once again there has been a call made for bookies to be paying some of their turnover to football clubs, but surely the events surrounding the Essendon v St Kilda match are relevant in this argument? All the money early in the week (three $5000 bets) had been for St Kilda at $1.38. Essendon were 'unlayable' at $2.90, that was until James Hird was named in their side. A swag of bets, including $10,000 at $2.90 and another $10,000 at $2.80, saw the price for Essendon cut to $2.60, and shorter with other firms. Then on Friday, the rumour mill said that not only Hird would be out, but also Dustin Fletcher, which saw another wave of money, but this time for the Saints, with Essendon getting back out to their original quote. The got thumped by 35 points, but the big question is, if the AFL and clubs are prepared to take money from bookmakers, does that then mean that they open themselves up to be sued by those who backed Essendon thinking Hird would be in, when it appeared as though he was never going to play? Football isn't like the racing industry, where every rule is written with betting in mind. Any sport wanting fees would have to seriously look at their responsibilities and the way rules are written. Imagine the stampede to the courts if a league official admitted that an umpire or referee had made a mistake that affected a game result! It certainly is food for thought. We were waiting for money to come for Hawthorn after they fired Coach Peter Schwabb, and we are still waiting! The Hawks didn't have a friend in the betting ring, while the Kangaroos firmed from $1.40 into $1.28, with two bets of $20,000 coming at the last price. The agony was over early as the Roos raced away to an 80 point win, keeping September hopes alive. The big move for the round, and one of the biggest for the year, was the Bulldogs against Collingwood. On Thursday evening, we had one of the worst prices for the Doggies at $2.60, but when the news got out that Collingwood would be without Tarrant and Rocca, the $2.60 soon became the best price. We rated the Bulldogs anyway, but with those two out, it was going to be hard for Collingwood, so we continually cut their price, but it was hard to keep the punters off them. The closing price for the Bulldogs was $2.05, and that was being taken, with Collingwood out to $1.75. This was the chance for the Bulldogs to regain some credibility, but they trailed all night to go down by 49 points. The less said about Sunday the better. Three games, three favourites, and for those that weren't already alive with the remaining games, well they just came back to couple up all three. On Sunday, we took three separate $20,000 bets at $1.60 for all three to win, and there were numerous smaller bets as well. The only positive to come out of the result was that Port Adelaide failed to beat a 38 point handicap against the West Coast (two bets of $10,000 on the minus), while we also got the Carlton money from those who took the 25 points start. This week, many of the games look hard to pick, with Sunday providing another two miss-matches. The Bulldogs go to Subiaco as $6.50 chances, with interest only in the -46½ for the West Coast to inflict some more pain on the hapless doggies. It is pretty similar when Hawthorn lies up against Melbourne at the MCG. It is hard to believe that Hawthorn were $10 to win the premiership back in February, yet they will go around nearly that price in this game ($8), and similarly to the Eagles, punters are prepared to concede the big start, -50½, that Melbourne have to give. Although belittled by Brisbane last week, South Australian supporters think that the Crows can beat the Kangaroos on Friday night. The opening quote of $2.15 was met with bets totalling just on $8000, but with the Kangaroos eyeing off a final eight position, we expect money for the Roos. Fremantle are $1.90 to lay to rest the theory that they can't travel on Saturday afternoon at Optus Oval. We still think they suffer from 'Boeing Syndrome', and have been more than happy to take the early money for the Dockers. Carlton have been rebounding from savage beatings all season, and they did beat the Kangaroo's at Optus two weeks ago. Essendon's position in the eight is on shaky ground, but with Hird and Fletcher likely to be back this week, maybe they can spring a surprise on Port Adelaide at Telstra Dome on Saturday night? Port opened up at a backable $1.60, but we have had trouble laying them, so they look as though they will drift to a better price. If Essendon were to beat Port, it puts a lot more emphasis on the big clash on Sunday between Geelong and St Kilda. Any slip up by either Brisbane or Port gives St Kilda a chance to try and secure a top two position, but they find themselves travelling to Geelong as outsiders. Historically, Geelong are a side that nobody backs, especially when favourites, but we have already seen bets of $10,000 and $5000 come for the Cats at $1.75. They are undefeated at Skilled Stadium this year, but this is the ultimate test. We have found one person impressed by Geelong this year as he placed $2000 on the Cats to win the flag early this week at $12. We also took a bet of $2500 for Port Adelaide at $3.75, and as the final eight is starting to take shape, we can expect the big money to start rolling in from here on in. Yesterday, we also took a bet of $500 for Collingwood to win the flag at $1001, maybe that punter knows something that we don’t? ATHENS GAMES Without a doubt, one of the 'blue ribband' events of the upcoming Games will be the men's 200 metres freestyle event, to be conducted in the outdoor pool. It's not certain how the conditions will be, but it is likely to be hot and humid, with a chance that those type of conditions will make the pool 'slow'. Many perceive this event to be a match race between our own Ian Thorpe, and Michael Phelps of the USA, but delving into the best times of the main hopes, it is far from being a race in two. Pieter Van Den Hoogenband (Ned) spoiled the Aussie party in Sydney when he won gold from Ian Thorpe, with Hackett coming last in that particular final. American youngster Klete Keller has been thrown into the mix this time, along with a couple of other Olympic 'veterans' in Canada's Rick Say and South African Ryk Neethling. As far as a betting event goes, Thorpe is the favourite at $1.50, and already today we have taken nearly $2000 in bets for him. As this is the first market out, we expect once news hits the US shores that they can back their own version of 'the superfish' in Phelps at $3, there will be an influx of money from that part of the world. Van Den Hoogenband's times this year are behind Thorpe, but he has to be in the betting at $6, while Hackett is also at $9. Don't forget that next Tuesday, August 3, at around midday Australian time, betting will open on all events of the Athens Games. Centrebet will also be covering practically all games of team events for the entire two weeks. RUGBY UNION Doug Howlett is not the most popular person in the Centrebet office at the moment after he scored a try for the All Blacks to give them a thrilling two point victory over South Africa. Howlett scored in the corner with 10 seconds left on the clock, and it was the only time for the match that the New Zealander's were in front. Several of the side had been unable to train through the week due to a virus raging through the camp, and that inspired us to get stuck into the All Blacks, which we did. The $1.20 for a Kiwi win was loaded up through all of our big multi's for the day, and on top of that, there were win bets of $30,000 and $20,000 taken at $1.20. Even at half time when the All Blacks were struggling, and down by 9 points, we took another $18,000 in bets for them to win at $1.85 and $1.80, although we did see nearly $10,000 come for the Springboks at $1.90 from those hopeful that they might hang on. The one good thing to come out of the game was that the Kiwi's didn't cover the 13½ point handicap, and that was extremely popular, including three bets of $5000. We didn't see any sign of money from South Africa for their side, but it might be a different story this week. The action now moves to Perth, where Australia will play South Africa on Saturday night. The big South African pack is going to be the stumbling block for the Wallabies, and it is a game that could definitely go to the visitors. Australia are our $1.53 favourites, and while we have seen close to $15,000 for them to win at that quite, there hasn't been a lot of interest in the Wallabies conceding a handicap of 5½ points, and in fact there have been several Australian clients taking the start given to South Africa! The Aussies really battled coping with the shocking conditions in New Zealand two weeks ago, and while you would expect the weather in Perth to be nothing but perfect, the long range forecasts are predicting wind and rain. That will level things up a lot, and judging on last week's performance, the Boks might be heading home with a win, and on top of the bonus point earned last week, maybe they are some hope of winning the Tri Nations trophy. ENTERTAINMENT Big Brother is over for another year, and there could not have been a more deserving winner than Trevor. His friendly nature saw him create history on two fronts, firstly becoming the first housemate to ever go through the series without being nominated for eviction, and secondly in becoming the first person on an Australian reality show to pick up a $1million prize. There were two big shocks leading up to the final show with ex favourite Ryan evicted on Friday night, then Paul was evicted on Sunday, which left only Trevor and Bree. Both were very good winners in our Big Brother book, and although Trevor had been favourite for the past two weeks, there was a really good spread of money this series. The only one punters didn't want over the last two weeks was Bree. She was still available at $26 when there was only the four left, the logic behind that being that because she was female, she would be voted out by the public. Not once, but twice, Bree dodged the bullet over the weekend, and that gave her some hope of taking out the major prize. She went into the final as rank outsider at $4.50, but we did take nearly $1000 in bets for her. Trevor was the short priced favourite at $1.16, and did attract one bet of $4000 at that quote. All up, nearly $100,000 was wagered on the winner of Big Brother, which was down a little bit on last year. On that occasion however, Reggie Bird was nearly an unbackable favourite for the last four weeks, and this time around the money was more evenly spread. RUGBY LEAGUE Although six of the seven NRL favourites won last weekend, only one of those six managed to cover the handicap, so round 20 went to the bookies. Wests Tigers were very unlucky not to provide another upset when they went down to the Bulldogs 24-20. It was another controversial ruling against the Tigers that saw the Bulldogs then go on and score, and it could easily have gone the other way. That was no help to those who piled into the -10½ for the Bulldogs, but those who took the $1.30 can consider themselves extremely fortunate. Gorden Tallis was rested form the Bronco's side, and for that reason we went after Brisbane conceding 16 points start. There was plenty of money around to say that they would beat that handicap, including bets of $15,000 and $10,000, but those punters fell a converted try short of the mark when Brisbane won 26-12. Souths served it up to the Roosters on Saturday night, and the final 22-12 point victory to the Roosters wasn't really indicative of how close it was. Again, there was plenty for the fav's conceding the start (-17½), and they never really looked likely to get over that mark. On the same night, Melbourne scored a lucky win when they scored a try with 3 seconds remaining on the clock to beat Parramatta. The Storm were backed for bundles, with some of the bigger bets being $15,000 and $8500, but there was also plenty for them to beat a 10½ point spread, so at least we got that. The damage was pretty severe however with those who coupled up the three Saturday league favourites into the three AFL favourites, and with all six winning, we could have done without that Melbourne Storm try! Sunday saw two games go into extra time, which saw one Queensland punter scoop over $60,000 in winnings. He coupled up the 'any other result' option in all three games as a box multi, and for an outlay of just over $2000, he came out well ahead. That particular option is based on a draw at either half time, or at the end of 'normal time', and he was very unlucky not to treble those winnings when the Dragons led the Sharks by only 2 points at half time in their game. The Cowboys extra time win over Newcastle was the big result for the day (which helped pay for the Dragons win over the Sharks), and the North Queensland side have started to attract bets at $2.75 to make their first finals series. The Roosters remain title favourites, but in the past week we have taken bets of $20,000 for the Bulldogs at $4.25, and $8000 and $4000 for St George Illawarra at $8. This week, the Bulldogs v Penrith match is the game of the round. We still don't know what to make of the Bulldogs, especially in light of last weeks win, but punters have let us know what they think. The Bulldogs have been backed form $1.50 into $1.40, including bets of $20,000 and $8000, and although we took an early bet of $6000 for Penrith with 6½ points start, that handicap has moved to 7½, and looks certain to get even shorter. Now that the Cowboys are on a roll, there has been good support for them to both beat the Dragons on Saturday night, and also to stay within a six point handicap. While it hasn't been one big individual bet, we have taken a series of bets of either $2000 or $1000 for the Cowboys, and most of that money has come from Sydney, not North Qld! The battle for the wooden spoon is heating up, and if punters are correct, the Souths can get out of the 'danger zone' with a win over Newcastle on Sunday. There is some doubt over Ben Kennedy lining up for the Knights, but they are also in a precarious position as they try and make the final 8. We rate the Rabbitohs a terrific chance, but the $2.50 (or +5½) that is being taken is a lot less than what we assessed them at, so we have to lay them. Apart from the Bulldogs game, there is also a stack of interest in Sundays clash between the Storm and the Roosters at Olympic Park. The 'day' conditions will suit the Roosters, but there has been a good push from south of the border for the home side, including three separate bets of $2000 for them with the start. The Roosters have been anchored up in nearly $40,000 worth of multi’s early in the week, so we have a good betting contest on our hands. A comprehensive Roosters victory will see them firm right up for the title, a win by Melbourne will see the Bulldogs possibly oust the Roosters as favourites. It is an important game, but in the rundown to the finals, most of them are! GOLF Big betting on recent golf events has continued on, with a couple of 'big ones' struck last weekend. Fortunately, punters were off the mark, and it was another good weekend following on from Todd Hamilton's win in the British Open. The Irish Open had a pretty good field, and it was eventually won by $126 outsider Brett Rumford. The Aussie shot a last round 67 to reel in leader Peter Lonard, and went on to win easily by 4 shots. We took two small bets for Rumford before the event started, and then $50 each way at $21 after the second round, but he was hard to sell coming into the final days play at $5.50. Lonard was the $2.50 fav at that stage, and did attract one bet of $2000 from an Aussie fan. Lonard had trouble coping with the windy conditions on the last day, shooting 73, to finish a disappointing fourth. Most of the 'name' players met with heavy backing before the event started, including Ian Poulter and favourite Darren Clarke. Clarke was backed to win $100,000 by one Sydney client at $10, then another Sydney client chimed in with a bet of $5000 to win at $9, and $40,000 for the place at $3. Unfortunately for his backers, Clarke was never a winning hope. The European tour moves to Jaravallan in Sweden this week for the Scandinavian Masters. Adam Scott won this event last year when it was played in Malmo, but he is still opening favourite at $10. He is fairly popular, along with second elect Lee Westwood ($11) who has shown a return to form recently. Westwood has had three top 10 finishes in this event from only six starts, so must be conceded a show. Colin Montgomerie is the one with strong form behind him having won in 1991, 1999, and again in 2001. He also improved in the recent British Open, and was the first player backed when betting opened this week, with a Queenslander claiming us for $2000 at $29, and then he was backed to win another $30,000 before his price settled at $21.Paul McGinley ($51) and Barry Lane ($81) were each backed to win $30,000 each way, and there has also been money for Jepser Parnevik, another previous winner (twice), at $26. Jesper may be Swedish, and has won the event before, but his form over the past couple of years has been woeful. In the USA, Tiger Woods is the $5 favourite to win the Buick Open. The Warwick Hills course in Michigan is a relatively easy course (says he who has never picked up a club!), with 'sub' 20 under par having won four of the last eight years. Tiger won here two years ago, and has finished top 10 on four occasions from five appearances, but he just simply isn't the player he was. That has also shone through in the betting, with only the real 'die hard' Tiger fans sticking with him in each event, whereas regular golf punters have been taking advantage of the higher prices for some of the others. We have bet an Australian client $6000 on Vijay Singh at $9, Stephen Ames has been backed to take out $60,000 at $31, and both Kenny Perry ($17) and Jim Furyk ($17) have been backed to take out close to $25,000. Furyk is defending champion, but has spent a lot of the last twelve months on the sidelines with injury, while the veteran Perry won here back in 2001.The Aussie contingent is a bit light on here, with many taking a break or playing in Europe, but our best winning hopes appear to be Mark Hensby or Geoff Ogilvy, both quoted at $67. FORMULA ONE Michael Schumacher vindicated those who were prepared to take the short odds ($1.33) in last Sunday's German Grand Prix, with a record equalling 11th win, but as we pointed out last week, there was a little apprehensiveness shown by some punters as Schumacher's record at his home track wasn't as good as it could have been. The largest bet for the German was $5000 at $1.33, but he was a long way short of our worst result. That honour went to Kimi Raikkonen, who attracted two bets of $2000 at $6.50, as well as a podium finish bet of $4000 at $2.20. Raikkonen did lead for a lap early in the race, but had to withdraw on lap 14 with car wing trouble. The new McLaren is definitely quicker, but isn't reliable. The placings behind Schumacher couldn't have fallen any better with Jenson Button finishing second, and Fernando Alonso grabbing third. Punters plonked on Raikkonen and Rubens Barrichello ($5000 at $2.75, $3000 at $2.50) to finish behind Schumacher, but Barrichello didn’t fare much better than Raikkonen as he hit the rear of David Coulthard's car which forced an additional pitstop, relegating him to the back of the field. The next race in two weeks time will probably see Ferrari wrap up the constructor's championship, and with six races to go, there are still plenty of opportunities for Schumacher fans to line their wallets! MOTOR BIKES Many thought it wouldn't happen, but Italian Valentino Rossi is on track to win the MotoGP riders title after winning the British Grand Prix at the weekend. Rossi has forged to a 22 point lead over Sete Gibernau and Max Biaggi, and again showed at Donnington why he may be one of the greatest of all time. Rossi led for all bar the first lap, and racked up win number five for the season on his Honda, defeating Colin Edwards and his Honda team-mate Gibernau coming in third place. While he was the quickest qualifier, we thought that punters would flock to take the $1.70, but that wasn't really the case. In fact he was a small winner in our book as the preference was for Gibernau ($3.75) and Max Biaggi ($9) who qualified only eighth quickest. Loris Capirossi ($17), Troy Bayliss ($16) and Nicky Hayden ($21) were marked improvers during qualifying sessions, but punters only want to deal with the 'name' riders when it comes to backing a winner, and who can blame them? Colin Edwards, who finished on the podium for the first time since switching from the Superbikes, had a little support to finish amongst the placegetters at $8, but the bulk of 'podium finish' money was for Max Biaggi at $2.50. Close to $6000 was placed on Biaggi, but he finished well back after experiencing gear box trouble. Gibernau might be a remote chance of upsetting Rossi in future races as he did a good job to finish third after crashing at his previous two starts. ELECTIONS John Howard would have received the perfect 65th birthday present on Monday had he have visited the Centrebet website. His odds of being re-elected took a tumble from $1.55 into $1.50, and the following day another 'not so positive' poll regarding Labor's chances may well lead to another price change before the week is over. There has been another $10,000 worth of bets placed in the past week, and the odds of Mr. Howard getting back in are heading back in the direction they were in just before Mark Latham took over at the helm of the Labor Party. At that stage, the Coalition were $1.28, with Labor at $3.25, but over the past month, not a lot has gone right for Labor. Add to that the woes of the Carr Govt in New South Wales (Labor), and all of a sudden there is a gap opening up again in the betting. The old saying 'where there is smoke, there is fire' will be put to the test over the next week or so. We have taken a few phone calls from people wanting to bet on the date of the election. For obvious reasons, we will keep right away from things like that, but the date that they were looking for was September 18, so we'll see what eventuates there. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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