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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
CRICKET The rain came but it was way too late to save England and the bookies in the first Test. Even though most of the fourth day's play was lost to bad weather Australia still managed to win the test with a day to spare and that has seen us slash the price for a 5-0 whitewash of the series into 5.50. Australia are 1.11 to retain the Ashes with the Poms out to 13.00 and there are no takers! Australia went into the first Test as favourites at 1.85 carrying a host of $10,000 bets as well as a bet of $25,000 from a client in Queensland. As we said last week the long range weather forecasts predicted rain on the weekend and that allowed us to get money for the draw. England blew like the north wind, from an opening 4.00 out to 5.50. The second Test will be played at Edgbaston and looking back through the records a result pitch looms. In the last eleven tests played, there have been only two draws and four of the victories have been by an innings. Another interesting stat is that in those nine 'result' matches the team batting first has only won once with eight losing. This will be a crucial toss to win. Betting is open and one of our Indian clients has ignored all of those stats and ploughed in with a bet of $16,000 for the draw at 3.25 but we have taken close to $25,000 for Australia at 1.65 and nearly $2000 for England at 6.25. Maybe England are overpriced given the record of the ground but punters aren't keen on them at all. Glen McGrath was heavily backed to take the most wickets for the series before the first Test and he is now into 2.75 ahead of Shane Warne at 3.00. McGrath had two bets of $5000 placed on him at 4.25 but we didn't miss Warnie either with one Sydney client backing him to win $20,000 at 4.50. They both have a big lead on the rest of the Aussies so we are left hoping that Steve Harmison (5.00) can maintain his good form. As far as the batting aggregates go nobody has opened up a huge break after the first Test and Ricky Ponting and Damian Martyn head the betting there at 5.50. AUSTRALIAN RULES Seven of the eight AFL favourites greeted the judge last weekend but the solitary outsider that won, the Western Bulldogs gave us a big enough result to escape for the weekend. The Bulldogs may not make the finals but they have proven a thorn in the side of several teams this season and Geelong were another casualty when 35 point losers to the Doggies. The biggest bet we took for Geelong as a 'single' was $12,000 at 1.20. We did take three separate $10,000 wagers for them to cover a handicap of 28 points but punters did their damage in the multiples. The weekend’s biggest AFL bet looked like being a winner in the final match of the round after a Sydney client placed $50,000 on Melbourne with 16 ½ point-start against Fremantle. We also took a bet of $16,000 with the same start and things were looking decidedly ugly when Melbourne led for most of the first three quarters in a low scoring, scrappy affair. Then the rain came and we had all but conceded but in a major surprise Fremantle handled the wet ball like old stagers going on to win by 25 points. Melbourne were 4.00 to win the flag eight weeks ago but are now in danger of missing the finals. They have to front up to St Kilda this week after the drubbing in Perth but while St Kilda fans are happy that Riewoldt, Harvey and Hamill will be back we consider that to be a small minus and are happy to take St Kilda money at 1.37. One of our early shoppers has had $8000 on Brisbane at 1.50 to beat the Western Bulldogs but this is another game where we rate the outsider highly. This will be played indoors, the Dogs are playing well and several of the Brisbane players are obviously carrying injuries. St Kilda's return to form has sparked some big betting on the premiership. Late last Friday we took a bet of $10,000 for the Saints at 6.50 after having taken a $2000 bet early in the day. We also took an $8000 wager for the West Coast at 2.75 and two bets of $1000 for the Kangaroos at 23.00. RUGBY LEAGUE Round 20 of the NRL season produced few surprises with perhaps the exception of the Knights come from behind victory over a disappointing Parramatta. The round kicked off with a typical Friday night blockbuster as the ever improving Bulldogs hosted the table topping Broncos. The Dogs were marginal outsiders at 2.00 in what promised to be a close and entertaining contest and all the early money was for them, taking out over $50,000 almost before a bet for the Broncos was written. However, on game day money finally arrived for the favourites at 1.80 and they were marginally more popular though multi’s making it a great betting game. The Knights put a huge dent in the Parramatta army ego with a come from behind 16-10 win at Parramatta Stadium. All the money was for the Eels at the win quote of 1.25 however, there was good support for the Knights receiving 11½ start including one $15,000 wager and several $5,000 wagers. The Storm effectively ended the Roosters finals thrust with a comprehensive 24-10 victory. There was early money for the Roosters with 7½ start however late money was for the home side including $20,000 at the win quote of 1.45 and $30,000 conceding 6½ start saw the weight of money swing towards the favourites. This week’s business has been a little quiet for this stage of the week however punters have singled out two games of interest. Firstly the Dragons have been all the rage on Friday night against the haphazard Roosters, firming from 1.48 into 1.46 on the back of two $10,000 wagers while the handicap has firmed from 6½ into 7½ on the back of some equally weighted betting. In the final game of the round Cronulla host the Wests Tigers at Toyota Park. Like last week all the money is for the Tigers trying to make it five wins on the trot. They have been backed from 2.70 into 2.55 while the start of 6½ has also firmed into 1.85 after two $10,000 bets. RUGBY UNION The quality time the Wallabies spent in Cape Town translated into an embarrassing performance in Johannesburg. The early money for the Springboks at 2.05 and +1½ dried up soon after the initial flurry. The trend shortly reversed and on the back of the comprehensive victory at the Telstra Stadium two weeks earlier, the Wallabies were backed into 1.73 and 2 ½ point favourites. Stirling Mortlock’s missed conversion in the dying minutes was an expensive aberration for a couple of our clients who took the Boks by 1-12 at 3.25. For the opening match of the 2005 Tri-Nations series, the punters are finding it difficult to find the winner. We’ve had one decent bet of $5,000 on South Africa -2 ½ at 1.90 but this was tempered by the $6,000 bet we took on the Wallabies at 2.15. We should expect an improved performance out of the Wallabies but maybe not enough to break the hoodoo at altitude in the Republic. The biggest rugby bet of the week was for New Zealand to re-claim the Tri-Nations Trophy. We had a confident New Zealand client wager $18,000 at the 1.57 on his home nation. GOLF Ben Crane won his second PGA tour event when he took out last weeks U.S Bank Championship of Milwaukee. Crane certainly had his admirers, carrying one bet of $500 each-way at his opening quote of 41.00. Others well supported such as Kenny Perry (8.00) and Scott Verplank (16.00) had opportunities to take the event by then scruff of the neck but it was Crane who showed the most composure over the final 36 holes. On the European tour, Sweden's Niclas Fasth won his second play-off of the season when he birdied the third extra hole at Gut Kaden to defeat Argentina’s Angel Cabrera and capture the Deutsche Bank Players’ Championship of Europe. Fasth was solid in the betting at 17.00 and showed great composure despite the pressure applied by the in form Cabrera. Players well supported such as Miguel Angel Jiminez, Trevor Immelman and Graeme McDowell failed to live up to expectations on the tricky Gurt Kaden layout. McDowell carrying one $3000 bet to finish in the top 5 at 7.25. The PGA tour has Vijay Singh returning to Warwick Hills, Michigan, to defend his Buick Open title he won by a shot over John Daly last year. Singh was also successful in 1997 so he should be tough to beat however he will meet some stoic resistance in the form of World number one Tiger Woods. Tiger is a firm 3.25 favourite however, punters are convinced that Singh can recapture some of his early season form and carries one $10,000 wager at his opening quote of 8.00. Also in the betting is an inform Jim Furyk at 11.00 Scott Verplank at 23.00 and Chris DiMarco, who carries one $4,000 wager at 26.00. FORMULA ONE Kimi Raikkonen's loyal band of followers will be beginning to wonder what he has to do to win a grand prix after another early exit at the weekend. After qualifying quickest, Raikkonen went into the race a hot favourite at 1.50. His engine problems of the past few races frightened a few away from taking the short odds but there was still plenty of support there, led up by a wager of €6000 from Finland and another of €5000 for a top three finish at 1.20. Things were going along nicely for Raikkonen when he held a commanding nine second lead over Fernando Alonso at the half way mark but engine trouble saw Raikkonen forced into retirement, handing the race to second fav Alonso. Punters didn't forget to back Alonso either as he ended up being a small loser for us at 4.00. The only other driver to draw any decent bets at all was Michael Schumacher at 9.00 and it was sad to see the once great Ferrari passed by Giancarlo Fisichella on the final lap to grab fourth place. This week, Raikkonen is again favourite to win the Hungarian Grand Prix but with all his recent woes, the 2.40 has been hard to sell. He can't be much higher than that, as McLaren clearly have the quickest cars it is the reliability that is the problem. There has been money, including two bets of $1000, for McLaren teammate Juan Pablo Montoya at 4.25 and there didn't appear to be too much wrong with his car when runner-up in last week’s race. Alonso is well in the betting at 3.00 and as usual he has been easy to lay. He has been the most consistent driver all season and will be there again should the McLaren’s have problems. MOTOR BIKES Not even atrocious weather conditions could deter Valentino Rossi in last week’s British MotoGP. Rossi's seventh victory from nine races has seen the diminutive Italian move 104 points clear at the top of the table. The race was marred by several spectacular crashes, one of whom was second favourite Sete Gibernau (5.00) who parted company with his machine after three laps. At the time Gibernau was leading, but it isn't the first time that this has happened to him. Punters have only been keen to back Rossi in recent races and over 90% of the money for last week’s race was for Rossi with the biggest bets being $10,000 and $6000 at 1.50. This week, Rossi is even shorter at 1.35 to win the German motoGP and a few have taken the opportunity to try and increase the balance of their Centrebet accounts. The first few bets on this week’s race included $5000 and $2000 with only Sete Gibernau attracting any other bets at 6.00. ELECTIONS The New Zealand election was called this week for September 17 and we have already seen plenty of interest. This election was always going to be a good betting contest and our investigations revealed that all the experts thought it could go either way so we took the same approach. Labour are going for a third term under Prime Minister Helen Clark but National Party leader Don Brash has been polling extremely well in all polls conducted recently so we opened both at 1.83 to be the next Prime Minister. It looks likely that the winning party will have to form some kind of an alliance to provide the Prime Minister so while the New Zealand First Party cannot possibly win overall, which ever way they lean is going to be an important factor. When the betting is close in elections the first few bets are important as is anything topical throughout the campaign. This is no different and in the first six hours of betting we took close to $10,000 for the Brash led Nationals. That saw a price change into 1.80 but the second day of betting saw nearly the same amount placed on Helen Clark at 1.90 so from our perspective, that is great. There should be enough interest coming from New Zealanders keen to bet on the election to gauge some sort of feeling on how the voters see it, a fact that several sections of the New Zealand media have already picked up on. Still on the politics front and following on from Bob Carr’s shock resignation during the week we have opened up betting on which party will win the New South Wales State election in 2007. The John Brogden led Liberal Party is at 1.50 to gain office with the Labor party minus Bob Carr considered a 2.50 chance. BIG BROTHER Backing favourites in Big Brother has proven quite successful and the record was three from three last week. Logan David was 1.16 to be evicted ahead of his brother Greg then the all talking Rita (1.03) and Christie (1.30) were evicted by public vote on Sunday night. As much as Big Brother has tried to ensure that their will be plenty of females around until the end (more female than male intruders, getting rid of one of the twins) the public keep evicting them in line with previous Big Brother’s. The female ranks will be even thinner after this week with all three girls up for eviction. Melanie is the early favourite at 1.50 but the popularity of Kate has taken a nosedive over the past few weeks and there is money for her at 2.50. Vesna looks safe for the time being with only a handful of small bets under her name at 11.00. Vesna took over as favourite to win the major prize last week but Tim has assumed the role again this week. We opened Tim at 1.90 on Tuesday but another $2700 worth of bets has seen that price cut to 1.72 with Vesna out to 3.00. Greg still has plenty of admirers at 5.00 (one bet of $800) while Kate, who was favourite three weeks ago has blown out to 17.00. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or
centrebet@centrebet.com
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