|
|
|
||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet Capers
GOLF Last week we predicted a probable first time winner in the John Deere Classic but what we didn’t predict was that John Senden would be the fifth Australian to win on the tour this year. Senden himself thought he was striking the ball well enough to capture a title and that it would be only a matter of time. His timing could not have been better as the win earned him a start in his first British Open. Speaking of which, our attention turns to Royal Liverpool G.C at Hoylake for the 135th British Open. Tiger Woods is the defending champion after leading all the way last year to capture his second open title at Royal and Ancient St Andrews. He has been installed favourite at 6.00 ahead of Masters winner Phil Mickelson (11.00), Vijay Singh and Ernie Els (16.00), two time U.S Open winner Retief Goosen (21.00) and Englishman Luke Donald, the surprise packet in the betting at 23.00. There has not been a major played at Royal Liverpool for some 39 years so most of the players on tour are unfamiliar with the course. The above reason is one of many as to why this is one of the better betting Opens in recent history. When you consider that Woods has only ever fired at St Andrews, Mickelson has never fired at the Open, Els still has queries over his knee, Singh is still in the putting horrors and Goosen is just in the horrors, then it is understandable that punters are looking for value. RUGBY LEAGUE Trying to find the seven winners each week on the NRL is currently like trying to pick the winning lotto numbers. Once again the results were all over the place with only three of the seven favourites winning and only three home sides coming away with the two points. The Bulldogs have leapt past the Dragons and Melbourne in premiership betting and are the new 3.75 favourites after beating the Dragons 22-16 on Friday. That loss suffered by the Dragons has also all but handed the minor premiership to Melbourne, who holds a commanding lead at the moment. The Warriors were heavily backed to beat the Eels on Saturday. Centrebet took a bet of $50,000 and a multi of $40,000 for the Warriors to win by at least five points but those bets were always in trouble as the Eels raced to a lead of 18-6 at the major break. Sides in turmoil often attract betting and North Queensland was one of the sides on the weekend. Unfortunately for punters, the turmoil only got worse as Penrith put them away 17-8. The Cowboys were backed from slight outsiders to start clear favourites and it is hard to believe that this is the same side who were 4.00 premiership favourites after a couple of rounds. Melbourne is undefeated at home this season and is 1.33 to repeat the dose against Cronulla on Friday night. It is hard to see how the Sharks can overcome the advantage that the Storm have at Olympic Park and the cold, wet weather that is predicted will be another reason to tip the Storm. The Roosters finally found a winning formula against the Sharks last week but they jump straight back into the boiling pot against the Bulldogs on Saturday. The Dogs are one of the form sides of the competition and have been installed at 1.22 to win. It looks like a Bulldogs win for us but the Roosters are capable of staying under the handicap of 10½ points. Is Parramatta back? Are the Tigers gone? Both questions may well be answered on Sunday. On current form, the answer to both is yes and this is a really crucial match for both as it will go a long way towards shaping the final eight. The Tigers have been consistently one of the best backed sides each week but as yet, there has been little interest in them to win this week at 2.00. AUSTRALIAN RULES Round 15 of AFL looked a bleak round for bookies when six of the eight favourites won but only two of those managed to cover their allocated handicaps and that was what saved the bagmen. Melbourne continued on their winning way over Richmond on Friday night and although that was the way most punters went, the biggest multi bet for the weekend included Melbourne but we got to hang on to the cash. The bet of $100,000 was for Melbourne to beat Richmond, coupled up with the Dragons to beat the Bulldogs in the NRL and of course the Bulldogs got home in that one by six points. There were five games on the weekend where favourites were in big trouble before going on to win and St Kilda were one of those. The Saints were 1.10 to win and carried one bet of $17,000 at that price. The punter was last heard of heading to the bar for a soothing scotch as he had to go through a harrowing 100 minutes before St Kilda prevailed over Essendon by 3 points, all to win $1700! Apart from the Adelaide v Kangaroos match on Friday night, the upcoming round of AFL looks to be on of the toughest for the season so far. There won't be too many people around the country in a state of shock if the Crows beat the Roos as they are raging hot 1.08 chances, and the Crows won the match against the Roos early in the season 116-60, so we think that the handicap of around -45.5 for the Crows is justified. There is a lot at stake in the Essendon v Carlton match as the loser will be the likely winner of the wooden spoon. In our opinion, Essendon were entitled to be favourites after last week’s effort against St Kilda, and we opened Carlton at 2.10. There has been an avalanche of support for the Blues, including one bet of $10,000 at the opening quote and they have been backed into 1.90 equal favourites. It wouldn't surprise who won this match but at the current prices but we are tipping Essendon. RUGBY UNION What a difference a week makes in Rugby! After suffering a comprehensive defeat at the hands of the All Blacks in week one of the Tri Nations the Wallabies bounced back to give the Springboks their biggest shellacking in the last two decades. Betting on the game was brisk and although Australia had its admirers at 1.28 and conceding 9½ start, the majority of punters could not get the defeat the week before out of their memories and it was the Springboks who were the median of heavy support. This support included one $50,000 wager from a local client receiving the start so it was pleasing to be able to barrack for the home side with the knowledge it was a good result for Centrebet. South Africa heads to Wellington to take on the All Blacks who, despite making five changes, are a more than formidable hurdle. They have been installed prohibitive favourites at 1.05 and conceding 21½ start. That start is based on team changes, weather and the fact the Springboks cannot go as bad again….we can only hope! The only monies at this stage has been for the home side at the win while handicap business may not take off until nearer kick-off when punters are more confident with the weather conditions. Whatever happens in that regard we believe it will only came one way so we bracing ourselves for an avalanche for the All Blacks. FORMULA ONE Michael Schumacher's Driver’s Championship odds have been slashed to 3.50 after he won his eighth French Grand Prix on Sunday. The German has cut Fernando Alonso's lead to only 17 points and with seven races remaining, we may be in for a terrific finish. After qualifying quickest, Schumacher was installed as 1.55 favourite. As is always the case, whoever draws pole attracts heavy backing and this was no different as he was backed into 1.50. The biggest bet taken was €5000, but there were more bets under Schumacher's name than any other driver. We did see some money for second pick Alonso, including one of €2000 at 2.70, but it was still a losing race. Outside of that duo, there was hardly any interest in any of the others and it looks as though barring any misfortunes, then this pair look set to fight out each race as well as the Driver’s Championship. MOTOR BIKES Valentino Rossi showed in the German MotoGP what a fabulous rider he is when he came from number eleven on the grid to beat Marco Melandri on Sunday. Clearly still suffering from a broken wrist, Rossi was nowhere near his best in qualifying and we all know how hard it is to win these races from so far back on the grid. The price on offer of 3.50 seemed well under the odds but punters pinned their faith in Rossi and his win was a bad result for us. Three separate bets of $1000 were taken but there were dozens of bets for lesser amounts. Dani Pedrosa started 1.90 favourite from pole position and although there was some money for Pedrosa, we would have much rather preferred him to Rossi but he couldn't capitalise on the good draw. The win by Rossi has seen him zoom back in to 1.55 to win the Championship, ahead of Nicky Hayden (3.50) and Pedrosa at 5.50. The circuit moves to the USA for a race this weekend and Rossi will again be at the head of the betting. MISS UNIVERSE Donald Trump's Miss Universe extravaganza will be decided in Las Angeles on Sunday, and Aussie entrant Erin McNaught is our 8.00 equal favourite. The Gold Coast beauty created her own storm before leaving our shores when some topless shots of her in a zoo appeared, well before she won her Australian heat. The important thing for Erin is that the organisers have dismissed the photos as irrelevant, and Donald Trump has taken a shine to her. Erin shares favouritism with Miss Colombia, Valerie Dominguez, who as it turns out is a first cousin of pop star Shakira. Most of the pageant critics have tipped Miss Canada (10.00) as the likely winner but seeing that no country has ever won back to back Miss Universe competitions, then she is a risk in our book. DANCING ON ICE A depleted field of celebrity skaters faced the judging panel on Tuesday night and it was one of the outsiders in Trisha Broadbridge who was eventually voted off. The show was thrown into chaos when both Giaan Rooney and Annalise Braakinsiek had to leave due to injuries and that saw us abandon the weekly eviction book. We have noticed a severe drop-off in the level of interest this week, no doubt due to the possibility of more injuries. You can't really blame anybody for not wanting to bet on an event where there is a chance that their selection will be ruled out. Having said that though, the handful of bets we have taken this week have all be for new favourite Karl Stefanovic, now into 2.20. In the two shows so far, Karl has definitely looked to be the steadiest, so perhaps punters think that his ability to stay on his feet, and of the pumping up that he is receiving on the 'Today Show' will see him become the winner of the first series. BIG BROTHER Darren was the shortest priced person we have ever had to be evicted from a Big Brother household and it came as no surprise he was the 13th evictee on Sunday night. Darren was backed from 1.15 into 1.01 and also had the biggest evictee bet this year placed on him. A person from NSW had $5000 to win $250 (1.05) for Darren to go and he had no worries at all as Darren was a runaway winner in the voting. There are only a couple of weeks to go in this series of BB and this week there is a double eviction with five housemates up. The two latest inclusions, Max (1.20) and Chris (1.50) were our opening two favourites, but there has been a very good push for Claire. Many think that Claire has been ‘playing the game' and it is interesting that she has been backed from 2.50 into 1.40 to go this week. Claire has only been up twice before in fields where she clearly was safe but this week is different. All of this has seen little change to the overall winner market with David still the favourite at 2.60 ahead of Camilla and Jamie at 3.40. In the last seven days, we have taken three bets of $500 for David but the niggling problem for his supporters is that he has been consistently nominated. We expect another double eviction next week as well and all of this is falling into Jamie's hands. That is why we are not overly keen to lay him as both he and Krystal look safe from eviction for the time being at least. IT TAKES TWO Richard Champion was long odds on (1.20) to leave It Takes Two early in the week and the ex AFL champ was another added to a long list of recent favourites to be voted off a reality show. Now it gets interesting as there are three Channel 7 personalities left along with swimming champ Sarah Ryan. That is going to make it difficult for Sarah, even though she is coupled with Guy Sebastian. She has already been the best backed to go this week, firming from 1.90 into 1.80 and is 7.50 to win the major prize, just behind Erika Heynatz at 6.00. Kate Ritchie and Mark Furze dominate the betting at 2.40. In our opinion Mark should hold a slender lead on the betting boards, but it has been Kate who the punters want. She has been backed all the way through the series and continues to attract the majority of the bets coming in. If the show was decided on popularity only, Kate would be a runaway winner but Mark has impressed all the way through with his singing ability so we still maintain he is the one to beat. ELECTIONS The battle to head up the Coalition has been taken away from the front pages of the newspapers over the past few days, but people still want to bet on the outcome of who will be the leader of the Coalition and who will win the next election. Peter Costello has his share of supporters and at the weekend we took a bet $2000 for Costello to lead the party at the next election. The price on offer was 4.50 and that forced a minor change to 4.25. John Howard is still the hot favourite at 1.20. We also took an interesting bet on the next Federal election. With Labor creeping up in the popularity polls and the battle going on at the head at of the Coalition, it did seem a rather strange time for someone to want plonk a big amount on the Coalition. That is exactly what happened with a client from NSW placing $10,000 at 1.60 which is the second biggest bet we have taken, the largest being $50,000 at 1.65 just prior to Christmas. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
|
||
