In the
last column, we discussed runlines and moneylines for betting
baseball, America's pastime. Now lets talk a little about soccer,
the pastime for the rest of the planet.
If you
have never lived in Europe or Latin America, it will be impossible for
me to explain to you how incredibly popular soccer is in these parts
of the world. The word "passion" just isn't strong enough.
There is simply nothing in American sports, or American culture for
that matter, that draws the same amount of interest as a major soccer
game in these places. Super Bowl, Final Four, World Series, Olympics,
Academy Awards, and presidential elections are all major events and
draw millions of viewers in the US of A, but rarely do these events
mean that roads will be deserted, that schools and business will be
closed, or that a favorable result will become a spontaneous day of
jubilation for the entire country.
Why
doesn't the US have any sporting event that reaches the masses on such
a scale? It is simple - the US is so good at so many sports. When you
think of sports in Canada, you think of hockey. When you think of
sports in the Dominican Republic you think of baseball. When you think
of sports in England you think soccer. But when you think of sports in
the US: football, baseball and basketball leap to mind. America
produces the best teams and the best players in these sports, and the
best players from around the world come here to play in US-based
leagues. But in countries like Costa Rica, soccer is the only major
sport where they can compete on a World level. The collective national
pride rests on the shoulders of every player who takes to the pitch
representing their nation. Nobody wants to miss the euphoria that
comes when their team, and thus their country, pulls together and
wins.
Enough
background, lets talk about betting on the sport. Betting on soccer is
a little different than betting on football or basketball as a result
of typically low scores (not typical are games like Germany's 8-0 win
over Saudi Arabia this weekend in Group E play, or Australia's 22-0
and 31-0 wins over Tonga and American Samoa on consecutive days in
qualifying last April). This means soccer betting is more like
wagering on hockey or baseball, in that spreads and totals are not
moved to balance action. Instead, the House moves the attached
moneyline to create value and attract betting dollars where desired.
However, there is a major difference between soccer and
baseball/hockey - the likelihood of the game ending in a tie. Baseball
can never end in a tie (although you should never say never, because
the Yankees and Orioles played to a 1-1 tie last September), and
neither can playoff hockey. Soccer, on the other hand, ends in a tie
very often. With few games and frequent ties, European betting shops
simply added the "Draw" as a wagerable option to increase
earnings, and three-way betting was formed.
So when
you see a line like:
Portugal -250
USA +550
Draw +280
A bet
on Portugal is a loss, not a push, if the game ends in a tie. The same
goes for a wager on the USA. A bet on the Draw is a winner only if the
game ends in a tie, so if either team wins, the Draw wager is a loss.
Some
North American books (including BoDog) have added a more traditional
spread for the World Cup to make it easier for their clients to play.
At these books, you may see a line like:
Portugal -1/2 (-250)
USA +1/2 (+210)
Please
note that the attached moneyline of the Portugal spread is the same as
the line in three-way betting at -250. This is because the bets are
the same thing. Portugal -1/2 means they must win the game, and that a
loss or a draw results in the wager being a loser. Sometimes, the
spread will be -1.5 (like baseball and playoff hockey), but
regardless, when betting favorites in soccer, you should always check
both the spread and the three-way moneyline to find the best value.
The
converse is not true, though, as a wager on USA +1/2 essentially
represents both USA +550 and the Draw +280 in a single pick. You can
use this to your advantage to get a higher return on your bankroll in
certain situations. If you like the US to win, why settle for a return
of +210 on the spread when an upset can pay +550? If you like the draw
at +280, perhaps you may want to include the possibility of a US win,
and only give up 70 cents. There are many opportunities here, and it
is worth spending some time with a pen and paper working through
different scenarios to see where you can benefit.
Some
soccer games (World Cup games after the first round for example)
require a winner, but to keep betting options the same, books
traditionally only accept wagers for regulation time. This means that golden
goals (overtime winners) and penalty kicks (the shoot-out after
scoreless overtime) have no effect on wagering. Always make sure
you are aware of exactly what outcome you are betting on in soccer.
Two
other typical soccer bets are the Exact Score and Double
Result. The Exact Score bet is pretty clear - predict the final
score. This type of bet doesn't work very well in other sports because
of the higher scores, but is very popular for soccer. Double Result
wagering requires you to pick the outcome of the first half and the
game. For example, Portugal-Draw would require that Portugal be
leading after the first half and that the score be tied at the end of
the game for the bet to be a winner. This is possible for football and
basketball, but hasn't caught on in North America yet, although we had
lots of action on this very bet for this year's Super Bowl.
As
always, I talked to Kent (BoDog's top bookmaker) about the
House's recent success. "The last couple of rounds of the playoffs
have been a tough grind for us. The road teams are having big success,
and some players are cashing in by taking the points. It's very
different from recent years, where the favorites get all the action. Baseball
is up-and-down, although losses by the Yankees and Red Sox yesterday
with Clemens and Pedro starting resulted in a very big day for us. The
World Cup has been good, with Senegal's upset of France to open
the tournament getting us off to a very profitable start."
I'll be
back in a couple of weeks with a further look at the World Cup, and a
recap of the NBA season from the House's point-of-view.
