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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
Backing bad sides at bad odds is a flash way of going broke, and I suppose those who took the very short odds for Wests Tigers against Brisbane would probably tend to agree. The Tigers were backed from $1.48 into $1.35 against a weakened Broncos outfit. The fact that Brisbane were missing all their big names was of course factored into the odds, but we did take two $5000 for Brisbane with 8½ points start from two punters who obviously thought that the young Broncos could match it with the Tigers. Some of the bigger bets for Wests were $15,000 ($1.48) and $12,750 conceding 6½ points start, and that 28-14 loss has quite possibly meant that the Tigers are out of the running as far as the finals are concerned. Another team under pressure are St George-Illawarra, who were defeated 48-32 by North Qld on Saturday night. Last week, a Victorian punter backed the Dragons to take out $100,000 to win the competition at $67, also placing $8000 on them to make the final 8 at $1.80. He didn't back the Dragons to beat North Qld, but everybody else did! Two Sydney punters bet a total of $30,000 between them on St George with 2½ points start ($1.90), and we also found them very easy to "lay" at $2.10. Penrith's 26-16 win over the Roosters was one of our best league results of the season so far. The Roosters firmed from $1.75 into $1.60 led up by a client from NSW who plonked $25,000 on them at $1.70. This was a frustrating game to watch as Penrith had all the play early, only to let the Roosters take the lead early in the second half, and Penrith's tackling is still a major concern, but at least they are starting to win games. The late inclusion of Stacey Jones into
the Warriors side saw that handicap against the Sharks move out to 16½
at game time. Several big bets were taken on the Kiwi's to cover the
spread, and while they only got there by a converted try, the Warriors
were always in "cruise" mode. Unfortunately, one of the matches of the year will be played this week, only two days after State of Origin II. Brisbane are at home to Parramatta, and the Eels have a history of always playing well against Brisbane, and most of the Brisbane side will have to back up. We have given slight favourtism to Brisbane at $1.70, and immediately took around $11,000 worth of bets, but most will wait until the day of the game to see who will be in the sides. Whether or not Andrew Johns lines up for Newcastle on Saturday is also an important issue facing punters, and a couple of astute league clients have taken the 14½ points Melbourne Storm against the Knights. Bets of $5500 and $4000 have gone on Melbourne, while one of those clients has also placed $5500 on New Zealand to overcome an 18 point handicap against North Queensland. We are tipping Penrith again when they take on the Bulldogs on Saturday night. The Bulldogs have several players backing up, but punters are treating this game with caution as they have been hard to sell at $1.55. Last nights (Wed) second State of Origin match didn't get anywhere near the huge amount bet on the first, but it was still a great betting match. Changes to the Qld side, injuries and flu problems with NSW, and some ordinary weather so most of the support came for Qld. The Maroons opened at $2.25 with the most significant bets of $20,000 at $2.25 and $20,000 at +2½ points both coming from the Sunshine state. It wasn't until yesterday that the big NSW punters got behind the Blues in a spirited $100,000 plunge, which saw two $20,000 bets came late for NSW at $1.80, and we were caught by surprise with a bet from England of $16,800 that the game score would be under 40½ points. Lote Tuquiri's try in the last minute to see that score go over. The Blues will go in as short priced favourites in the decider, but you can never write off Qld. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] Only four favourites won last weekend in Aussie Rules, and of those, three managed to also cover their allocated handicap. It was a pretty good weekend results wise for Centrebet, and only confirmed what we already knew, that it is a very even competition. We didn't really get off to a flying
start when the Kangaroos upset Essendon on Friday. As always, there was
money for Essendon, but when the rain came, value seekers backed the
Kangaroos from $3 into $2.65. Adelaide's 7 point victory over Brisbane was also a great result, although the Crows tried to "throw it away" after leading by 34 points. Brisbane eventually got to $1.70 at which price a Sydney punter placed $18,000 on them, and while they were probably lucky to get within seven points, there must now be some serious questions asked about the ability of the Lions away from home. Punters have been keen to take the $2.25 for Brisbane to win the premiership on the premise that they would finish on top of the ladder, but things are very compressed up the top, so maybe the true value lies with either Port Adelaide ($5) or Adelaide ($13). St Kilda's big win over the West Coast has elevated the Saints to 14 points on the table, which maybe enough to see Carlton "win" their first ever wooden spoon. We took two separate bets of $2000 for St Kilda last week at $2.50, but they are now out to $4.50, with Carlton into $1.25. Not too much has happened with the Brownlow Medal where Shane Crawford is favourite at $6. The Kangaroos Adam Simpson continues to play well and is now $11, but that certainly is due more to his good form than weight of money. The recent spate of upsets has seen this weeks betting a little on the quiet side. The match of the round appears to be Essendon v Port Adelaide at Colonial Stadium on Saturday night, and the visiting side are slight favourites at $1.70. Close to $17,000 came early in the week for Port, and we have only seen limited action for Essendon at $2.05. The Kangaroos are $1.55 to beat Richmond on Friday night, and, favourite punters are getting right behind the Roos. We have also taken a $25,000 double for the Roos to win, coupled up with Adelaide ($1.30) to beat Hawthorn on Saturday. With Troy Wilson out of the West Coast side, we rate Sydney a chance of winning in the West on Saturday night. It's a big advantage not having to play in the heat of the day, and if Barry Hall can find some form, the $2.50 for Sydney look good odds. Brisbane ($1.10) should get the money at home over St Kilda, but we have found some people willing to take the $6.25 for the Saints, and also with the 36 points start. Three early bets of $2000 came for the Saints with the handicap start, but we think they will really struggle without Robert Harvey. Melbourne take on Collingwood at the MCG on Monday, and this is one game where we think the outsiders are outstanding odds. Collingwood got out of jail against Sydney last week, and Melbourne is another of those sides under siege from critics, so hopefully they can do what St Kilda, Geelong and the Bulldgos have been able to do when in similar situations, and that is win! The Monday matches of long weekends are always well received by the punting public, and while we expect most of the betting to take place on the day, we have already taken bets of $7000 and $6500 for Collingwood at $1.52. [Golf | GOLF] Bob Estes was only a $21 chance to win last weeks Kemper Open, but the biggest bet we took for Estes before the Tournament started was only $100. After the second round, a Sydney client placed $1000 each way at $7, at which stage we also took a $3000 bet for Greg Norman at $5.50. "The Shark" couldn't finish it off again, and eventually missed a place. A Norwegian client struck a big winner on the last round of the Kemper. It is quite popular to combine players as a multiple bet when they are paired up, and this client won $120,000 from a $2000 outlay. The US Open is only a week away, and players will be seeking to gain some form in this weeks Buick Classic. Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson share favourtism at $12, with Els attracting a bet of $1900 each way at that quote. The South African won this event in 1996 and 1997, but hasn't been in that sort of form since. Vijay Singh, also a previous winner in 1995, has been backed to take out just over $22,000 at $15, while both David Toms ($21) and Billy Andrade ($51) have each been backed to take out $25,000 by a New Zealand client. One player who does look well over the odds on what there is available around the world is Dennis Paulson. Paulson ($61) won last year in a playoff from David Duval after being defeated by Duffy Waldorf in a playoff the year before. Justin Rose won last weeks British Masters. Rose was well in the betting at $26, but overlooked by punters. It's a different story this week however, as he has been one of the best backed to win the British Masters at $9, along with favourite Darren Clarke ($7). Clarke is another who has plenty of form around this event having won it in 1999 and 2000. Outside of those two, the interest has only been lukewarm as it's not an overstrong, but we rate defending Champion Peter O'Malley as the one to beat. This week we also opened the market on the US Open. Tiger Woods is our $3 favourite, at which price we have taken bets of $20,000 and $5000, both from Sydney. Retief Goosen ($15) has been supported to take out $40,000, along with David Duval ($21) and David Toms ($26). Australia will have ten players in the Open field, with Adam Scott the shortest of those at $41. [Motorbikes | MOTORBIKES] Punters got it right when Valentino Rossi defeated Max Biaggi and Tohru Ukawa in last Sundays Italian Moto Grand Prix. Rossi won his fourth race from five so far this season in an emphatic three second victory, and those who took the $1.35 for Rossi to win only had a few minor concerns when Biaggi took the lead for six laps mid race. It was Biaggi and Ukawa who also carried the bulk of the money bet on a "podium finish". Bets of $2500 ($2.50) and $6000 ($1.85) went on Biaggi, while we saw several wagers totaling close to $11,000 for Ukawa at around the $1.90 mark. Rossi's dominance has meant that in future we will also offer a market on "best finish" excluding the Italian, a market that should instill a bit more interest in each race. [Formula One | FORMULA ONE] Following the upset win by David Coulthard in Monaco two weeks ago, punters think that the Ferrari's will "bounce back" in Canada this week. The Ferrari's have definitely had the better of the McLarens prior to the Monte Carlo event, but on the spacious circuit in Montreal, the money says that Michael Schumacher will return to the winners list. After opening at $1.75, the German is into $1.65 following bets to the value of $13,000, all from Germany. Barrichello opened at $5, and he has been backed to win a similar amount. An English client has backed both Schumacher and Barichello at $2.25 and $3.50 respectively to record the quickest lap. He placed £3000 on Schumacher and £1600 on Barrichello, so we are left with the rest! There has been no sign of those punters who backed David Coulthard and Kimi Raikkonen to finish on the podium in Monaco, or those who took the bigger odds for JarnoTrulli and Jenson Button to win. We have however taken a bet from Italy of $6000 for Trulli to beat Button home at $1.80, while an Australian has wagered $6400 on Barrichello to beat home Ralf Schumacher at $1.55. [Tennis | TENNIS] We thought once the soccer World Cup started that the interest in the French Open tennis would subside a little, but that hasn't been the case at all. Early this week, we were provided with some hefty upsets when Gustavo Kuerten and Lleyton Hewitt were bundled out of the men's draw, but punters more than recouped those losses on Monday when all four men's favourites won. Unfortunately, the latter part of this
tournament has been interrupted by rain, and we have also noticed the
apprehension of punters to bet on the women's final with the two
favourites, the Williams sisters, on either side of the draw. The betting suggested Nathan and Alex would be evicted last week in Aussie Big Brother, and that's what happened. With two up for eviction, there was a lot of action, and over $20,000 was bet on Sunday nights eviction, a pretty high figure when you take into consideration we don't allow punters to get on to win too much on the evictions. Nathan got into $1.10 when the opinion polls suggested the public had become tired of him, but Alex's eviction was a good result as the people betting on Big Brother stuck with Peter. Alex's eviction also put paid to the $1,500 bet placed by a Norwegian client on him to be the final winner at $11, so now our only ordinary result is short priced favourite Marty, now into $1.75. Betting opened on Tuesday for this week's eviction, and Mirabai drew a stack of small bets early, forcing her price from $2 into $1.30. Having said that, we did also take nearly several hundred dollars for Kieran at $6. Punters are obviously being swayed by what they are seeing on the opinion polls, but it can prove sometimes fateful to follow early opinions as those who took the $1.20 for Jessica two weeks ago found out. [Basketball | BASKETBALL] This morning (Thurs), the LA Lakers host New Jersey in the first of a best of seven finals series. The Lakers are $1.08 to win the series, and are a terrible result for Centrebet, and we consider ourselves very unlucky that they are still there. The Lakers came from well behind to win the last two matches of the series against Sacramento but New Jersey don't look to have the right personnel to cope with the Lakers. New Jersey are seven point underdogs in game one, and are completely friendless. Most of the bets taken have come from Europe, including bets of $12,500 and $10,000 for the Lakers to cover the spread, and also a win bet of $108,000 at $1.25. Betting on the total game score has been all one way, including a bet of $7,700, and that is on the total going over 189.5 points. [Soccer | SOCCER] Senegal gave bookmakers the perfect start to the World Cup when they defeated France 1-0 last Friday, at the same time possibly ending France's chances of defending the title. France went in as $1.30 shots, with the largest bet being 200,000 NOK ($AUD40,000) from a Norwegian client. Senegal had a lot of small support, and did land two winning bets of $1,000 at $10, but the win also killed off a fortune in a multiple bets, as well as a $25,000 bet fro France to lead at half time and full time at $1.75. On Saturday, our Danish clients got stuck into us when their side played Uruguay, and they came away with the money when Denmark won 2-1. Denmark were backed from $2.70 into $2.55, and we have seen nearly all of those come back and reinvest on Denmark ($2) to beat Senegal tonight. Easily the biggest betting game over the weekend was England v Sweden. All three options were very easy to sell, with England going in as our worst result after a late bet of $50,000 at $2. Punters even took the $1.20 for England when they led 1-0, but one Sydney client confidently predicted Sweden would fight back when he placed $8,000 on the draw option at $6, and sure enough the Swedes kicked the equalizer! Just looking at the bets come through our web site while each match has been in progress, it appears as though a lot of punters around the world have had one eye on the football, and the other eye on the betting. There have been several turns in the betting in each match, and there have been lots of opportunities for punters to "trade" profitably, and also for bookmakers to "balance the books". A perfect example was Tuesday's match between China and Costa Rica. A concerted push from Asia saw Costa Rica firm from an opening $2.10 into $1.72 when the match started. Two bets of $20,000 from that region were taken at $2.10 and $2, and that was followed by a $50,000 wager at $1.90. the further we turned the price off, the more we got out of Costa Rica, but that changed during the game. The match was only 15 minutes old when one of our Indian cricket punters placed $22,000 on the draw at $3.20, and we found ample interest in China at $4. The draw was into $2.35 at half time when the score was 0-0, with another Indian chiming in with $16,000 at that quote. As the second half started, Costa Rica were out to $2.60, but an early goal soon saw that quote slashed to $1.25, before another saw the betting close. A handful of draws early has seen money come for the draw in most options, but we have noticed that the favourites have been really easy to "lay", especially the sides favoured to win the cup. The dilemma facing bookmakers is "how short do you go" before they become a "false" price, but the money seems to be endless. As soon as we posted Spain at $1.50 and Italy at $1.45 to win their matches against Paraguay and Croatia, close to $100,000 was placed on each side. Even Argentina who on paper face a tough match against England, were backed as soon as betting opened at $2, but we have taken bets of $12,000 and $10,000 on the draw at $3.25. While the turnover on our "exotic" options on each match naturally hasn't been as high as the games themselves, the interest has far exceeded our expectations. We have had a huge influx of clients from Asia who prefer to bet on the "half time/Full Time" double and "pick the score" options, while betting on the "time of the first goal" and "under and over 2½ goals" has been very popular with our European clients. Now that all nations have played at least once, we expect the action to really fire up now from Asia. Historically, the Asians like to watch one round of these type of competitions so they can work out for themselves the true form line, so get ready for some pretty severe price changes around the world as the money from Asia really does dictate the market, just like the money from India dictates cricket betting. Just for interest, in last night's
(Thurs) matches, one of our Indian punters won $20,000 from a $10,000
bet on the USA to beat Portugal (placed after they scored their first
goal), but dropped $75,000 when he took $1.20 for Germany when they went
one up against Ireland. Robbie Keane has become our new favourite player
after kicking the equalizer for Ireland in extra time. It just goes to
show, it's never over until it's over!
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