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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
It might seem odd to say it but last week's State of Origin could have saved us from some hefty payouts. Recent history has shown us that the round immediately after an Origin match is normally quiet and with six of the seven favourites getting up things could have been a lot worse than they were. Even the one "outsider" that won, Parramatta, carried late support after Allan Langer pulled out of the Brisbane Broncos side for the Friday night clash. Early money had come for Brisbane at $1.70, but when Langer was listed as a non-starter, bets of $8000 and $6600 arrived for Parramatta. The Eels have a fantastic recent record against Brisbane at ANZ Stadium and Brian Smith also is the only coach with a winning record over Wayne Bennett, so the form was there. We still saw money come for the Broncos at the last price of $1.85. It was a match that could have swung either way, but the Eels hung on to win 22-18 after leading 22-4. Newcastle also had late withdrawals which sparked a mini plunge on Melbourne with 14 points start. A group of Sydney punters placed $17,000 between them on Melbourne, but they fell short when Newcastle cruised home 35-16. We also rated Cronulla "good things" to break back into the winners circle, and although we never really took money for them until they touched $1.58, it was disappointing to record a loss when they scored 34 unanswered points in the second half to beat St George by 21points. The same thing happened with the Northern Eagles. Desperate to "lay" Wests Tigers, we raced them out to $2.40, but couldn't find any big takers. Late bets of $12,000 ($1.55) and $8000 on the Eagles at -4½ points ($1.90) saw us come off second best when the Eagles won 42-18. Our biggest loss of the round was
incurred when the Bulldogs continued on their winning way by beating
Penrith 38-24. We really thought the Panthers could win, and took two
bets of $10,000 at -4½ points, and another $12,000 bet for the Bulldogs
to win outright ($1.55). Two sides in complete disarray both on and off the field, St George and Melbourne, will slug it out at win Stadium on Saturday. Trent Barrett will be back for the Dragons, and they are the $1.44 favourites, but the money has been for Melbourne. After opening at $2.75, Melbourne were backed to take out close to $30,000, but with recent rumblings of all not being well within club ranks due to change of captaincy, we thing the Storm will be beaten. Two sides who really know how to lose, the Tigers and Penrith, are $1.90 equal favourites on Saturday evening. We have no idea here, so will let punters decide this one, but it looks as though the Tigers will start slight favourites after an early bet of $6000. Now that Cronulla have a full squad back on the park, we think they will inflict some pain on Canberra on Sunday. We posted Canberra at $4.40 or +12½ points, and a punter from Sydney was first in with a $15,000 bet for Canberra, but the Sharks showed some true form last week, and we expect it to continue. The Bulldogs are now into $4 second favourites to win the title, but punters are finding it too difficult to sort out at the moment. North Qld were backed to win $25,000 last week to win the wooden spoon at $5.50, but there are nearly as many chances to run last as there are to win the NRL title. Betting is up and the third Origin match, with not too many surprised by our $1.50 quote for New South Wales to win the decider. Queensland are $2.50 in what is expected to be a fierce betting match. [Australian Rules | AUSTRALIAN RULES] League tossed up 7 of 8 favourites and it rained favourites in Aussie Rules last weekend with all eight winning. One Victorian punter collected $20,000 from a $1000 outlay when he picked all eight winners. We have complained recently about losing several big bets on last minute goals etc, but this week we were only one kick away from our biggest ever payout on Aussie Rules, this time luck was on our side! A Victorian client coupled up a "pick four" of Spain to beat Paruguay in the soccer (came from 1-0 down to win), the Kangaroos to beat Richmond in the Aussie Rules (Richmond kicked one goal and ten behinds in the last 40 minutes to lose), the Lakers to beat New Jersey in game two of the NBA (won easily) and rounded it off with West Coast at -17½ against Sydney. The bet of $60,000 was worth $306,000, and after we claimed he was lucky to be "alive" after the first two legs, the bet looked dead and buried when Sydney raced to a three goal lead late in the last quarter. West Coast then started to pile on the goals, and got to a 13 point lead with one minute 50 seconds left on the clock. I can tell you there were some very nervous Centrebet bookies pouring over the television in the bar at the Alice Springs Casino as we "sweated" it out during that period, which saw no more goals (thankfully!) Okay, we have told you one that went our way, but again the last kick of the game saw a result go against us on Sunday when Geelong kicked a goal after the final siren to beat Carlton by four points. Being a "Sunday" favourite, Geelong were coupled up with Brisbane and the Bulldogs, and with those two winning it proved a costly afternoon, which could have been avoided had Peter Ricardi not kicked that goal! The head was on the chopping block on Monday when we decided to take on Collingwood against Melbourne. All the options on Collingwood were backed, including a $35,000 bet at $1.57, but the only good thing to come out of their 51 point win was that we didn't have to worry about last minute kicks to win the match. Only four games are on this week as we have a split round, but they are four matches that could go either way. Early money has arrived for Hawthorn to beat Essendon on Friday night. The Hawks opened at $2.20, with a Victorian man placing $8000 at that quote and another joining in with $6500. The current price of $2.15 has also proven popular, but Essendon regulars have been taking the $1.68. Wooden Spoon favourites Carlton are $1.68 to beat West Coast at Optus oval, but that does seem a "rock bottom" price. Loyal Eagles supporters from the West have taken the $2.15 for the West Coast, and a few have taken the $2.05 Fremantle to maintain an unbeaten home run by West Australian sides on Sunday when they host Collingwood. We will be cheering with them as the first $13,000 bet on this match was for Collingwood at $1.85, and there has also been support for the Magpies at $1.80. A loss by Sydney on Saturday night will all but snuff out their finals hopes, so its all or nothing against Geelong. The Swans have a big following in New South Wales, and a few of them have taken the $1.55, including bets of $20,000 and $7000, but their form, or lack of it, must be a major concern. Brisbane are still $2.25 to win the
premiership, but that could be reviewed with captain Michael Voss out
for an indefinite period after opting for groin surgery this week. The
Lions aren't a one man team but Voss is a big part of their midfield and
he will be missed. We continue to see money for Collingwood, now into
$9. Currently, the Magpies look to be the only Victorian side who can
offer any resistance to another interstate invasion of the premiership
cup, although the Bulldogs have re-entered calculations. The Bulldogs
were $501 a month ago, but are now into $41. Plenty of recent
premiership winners have lost games early in the season, so who knows
what will happen. The All Blacks looked a little scratchy in their 64-10 win over Italy last weekend, but the second half was much better than the first half which saw New Zealand go in at the major break ahead 24-3. This match was televised into Australia, and we saw plenty of Aussies take the -66½ points that New Zealand were conceding. Two bets of $5000 came from Australian punters, and a New Zealand client also placed $10,000 on New Zealand, but he at least got most of his back when he also had $10,000 on the New Zealand Maori (-5½) against the NSW Waratahs. The Kiwi's won easily, 43-18. The Maori side play Australia on Saturday night, and this is one of those games where the handicap, -14½ points in Australia's favour, has had action both ways. The All Blacks are $1.07 to beat Ireland in Dunedin, also on Saturday night. We have taken a win bet of $25,000 at that price from New Zealand, and also bets of $15,000 and $10,000 for New Zealand to beat a 25 point handicap. South Africa had a 15 point victory over Wales last weekend, and are again at a short quote to repeat the dose in Durban in the last of the televised matches on Saturday night. We have given the Welsh 22 points start which was taken by two South African clients who invested $13,750 between them. South Africa need some impressive wins if they are to be any hope in the upcoming Tri-Nations, but the early action suggest punters think they have no hope. South Africa are at $7 behind New Zealand ($1.85) and Australia ($2.35). Already just on $35,000 has made its way across the Tasman for New Zealand to win, but we think the Wallabies can do it! [Boxing | BOXING] For such an unpopular person, Mike Tyson still has (or had) plenty of supporters, and most thought he could beat Lennox Lewis. Tyson was backed from an opening $3 before closing at $2.35, which included two bets of $10,000 and another of $8000. An English client placed $45,000 on Lewis at $1.50 24 hours before the fight, but constant Tyson money saw that price "ease" out to $1.57. Lewis also landed a winning $12,000 bet to win by knock-out ($2.10), but again we had a win on that option. Plenty of cynics took the $23 for a draw, which as we have mentioned before is due to the "Don King" factor, but a draw obviously wasn't in Lennox Lewis' script. These two "talked the talk" for five months before the fight, something Tyson admitted to afterwards. A similar occurrence is currently happening in Australia with Anthony Mundine and Lester Ellis. Ellis was a World Champion 10 years ago, but in retirement has put on a stack of weight. He now thinks he can be in pristine condition by mid July to shut Mundine, "The Man", up once and for all. Incredibly some punters have been convinced he can do it, and we have taken nearly $1000 for Ellis at $8, but this does look a mis-match of giant proportions and fully expect big punters to take advantage of the $1.06 for Mundine. [Formula One | FORMULA ONE] Car trouble to both Juan Pablo Montoya and Ralf Schumacher saw Michael Schumacher extend his lead in the Driver's Championship when he won the Canadian Grand Prix. Montoya was quickest in qualifying which saw him enter the race a $3 chance. We already had taken just over $20,000 in bets for Schumacher at $1.75 and $1.65, so we had good opportunity to balance things out, which we did when an Austrian client invested €7000 on Montoya. Montoya was running second with 13 laps to go, but his engine went up in smoke. The betting on the head to heads saw punters come out well ahead when Rubens Barrichello finished third, thus defeating Ralf Schumacher, and the other bad result was when Jarno Trulli defeated Jenson Button, who withdrew early in the race. [Entertainment | ENTERTAINMENT] No surprises with last week's Big Brother eviction of Mirabai, who went in at $1.15 to be shown the door. I don't know if anybody picked it up or not, but Kieran mentioned early in the week that he wondered "what odds he was with Centrebet". He might get to find out how the betting has been going sooner than he thinks as Kieran is the $1.10 favourite to be evicted this week, ahead of Jessica ($4) and Marty ($21). Most early bets have been for Jessica, but opinion polls point towards Kieran, and it also looks like the producers of the show have him "in the gun". [Tennis | TENNIS] Betting on the women's final of the French Open was understandably down on expectations when the Williams sisters played off for the major prize, and given how poorly the two played, if they ever line up against each other again we think that the turnover could be a record low hold. There were all sorts of conspiracy theories floating around both before and after the match, and at the end of it all it was slight outsider Serena who won the trophy after making the least amount of mistakes. We found some interest in Serena at $1.95, and took a $13,000 and $10,000 bet for Venus at $1.85, but that was about it. The men's final was completely different with red hot favourite Juan Carlos Ferrero comprehensively beaten in four sets by Spain's Albert Costa. Costa is one of those clay court specialists who has never really reached great heights, which meant that most punters stuck with Ferrero, who was one of the favourites all the way through the tournament. Ferrero opened at $1.35 in the final, but heavy betting, including bets of $35,000 ($1.35) and $15,000 ($1.33) saw his price cut to $1.30 when the match started. We also took a bet of $8000 that Ferrero would win in straight sets ($3), but Costa soon put paid to that as he raced through the first set. As in all finals of any event, a lot of punters went the way of value, taking the $3.40 for Costa, and we also took a bet of $6000 at that quote from a Sydney client who had previously placed $4000 on Ferrero at $5.50 early in the week. We are currently covering the tournament at Queens, and Wimbledon will be available next Tuesday. [Soccer | SOCCER] It's been a week of upsets and twists and turns on the World Cup, and there is still two weeks to go! Betting "live" on the matches televised into Australia has been a huge success, and in some cases there has been more wagered while the game has been in progress than before they have started. We can report that there are thousands of happy Danes around at the moment after Denmark put an end to France's campaign. It's already been stated everywhere what a shock France's exit was, and of course we were more than happy to see the back of them as they were the pre-post favourites for two years. Markets were available on how many goals each side would kick during the Cup, and France to score zero goals was a $101 chance, which nobody took! In that match against Denmark, Danish clients backed Denmark from $7 into $5.50, taking out nearly $½ million dollars when they won. This was an absolutely massive betting game, and in amongst a series of big bets for France was a wager of $90,000 at $1.50 from a German client. Even while the match was in progress, all three options were easy to "sell" after Denmark scored their first goal, with one of our Indian clients placing $17,000 on a draw at $3.10 at half time. That match aside, the "quietest" betting matches each day have been the early ones, obviously as our European clients are finding the early starts too hard to handle. Several of our big Asian clients from the last World Cup have also failed to reappear, but a few of our "regulars" from that neck of the woods have begun to play now that they have assessed the form. One in particular placed $100,000 on Germany ($1.95) to defeat Cameroon, and after having a man sent off during the first half, and Cameroon looking the better side, the Germans defied the odds and won 2-0. They are now into $11 to win the final, with Brazil the current favourite at $3.75. This week we have taken three separate bets of $10,000 for England ($7.50), while continuing to see bets pour in for Denmark ($26). Denmark have been backed to take out close to $3 million with Centrebet, and should they be victorious, we will be adding a fair bit of money to the Danish economy! [Golf | GOLF] The World Cup might be on, but people are still interested in betting on this week's US Open, so it looks as though most are going to be spending a lot of time in front of the television over the next few days. One bet of $20,000 had previously been placed on Tiger Woods, and this week we found another $20,000 bet at $3 along with bets of $8000 and $6000 at $3. Phil Mickelson has been backed with a $2500 each way bet at $16, we have laid $2000 each way Colin Montgomerie at $51, and Rocco Mediate ($61) Shigeki Maryama ($71), and Len Mattiace ($126) have all been backed to take out $100,000. Australian's feature prominently in our head to heads, with two $10,000 bets, one at $1.85 the other at $1.80, going on Chris Di Marco to beat Adam Scott, and also $18,000 worth of bets going Peter Lonard, who has had a great year in the US, to beat Greg Norman at $1.85. Davis Love, who has struggled of recent times with injury, has also drawn some attention to get the better of Jose Maria Olazabal with a $12,500 taken at $2, and close to $19,000 has gone on last week's European tour winner Darren Clarke to defeat Thomas Bjorn. Tournament betting will be updated
daily, and as usual, all daily three and two balls will be available.
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