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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet
Capers
Melbourne got "one last chance" off us in last weekend's match against Adelaide, and the Demons delivered the goods, bless their hearts! Adelaide started popular elects at $1.65, and with this match looking a little more open than the other three on offer, we saw solid support for both teams. Having said that through, Adelaide were easily our worst result thanks to a bet of $18,000 taken on Saturday morning at $1.65. The Crows were never really a winning chance as Melbourne scored a dogged 25 point victory. The 47 point win by the Bulldogs over St Kilda on Friday night was also a winning result after a Sydney punter placed $20,000 on St Kilda at the +23½ points ($1.90). He looked a good chance for the first three quarters, but the Saints were completely overwhelmed in the last quarter. The Kangaroos looked likely to break Brisbane's imposing home record on Saturday night, only to eventually go down by 15 points in a high scoring match. Again, this result wasn't too bad as bets of $10,000 and two of $5000, all from Victoria, came for Brisbane to beat a 31 point handicap. Sunday was a "blackout" though when Port Adelaide thrashed Richmond by 84 points. A client from NSW placed $20,000 on Port to win by over 25 points at $1.57, we took several $5000 bets for Port to beat the 31 point handicap, and also took a $40,000 double for Brisbane and Port both to win. In the form they are in, Port are a realistic chance to keep winning and finish on top of the ladder, so we have cut their premiership odds to $3.50, "easing" Brisbane out to $2.40. Whilst on premierships, we took another
big premiership double of Essendon and Parramatta last week. The same
NSW based client who placed $10,000 at $11 early in the season has come
back with another $5000 at $29, for an all up win of just under
$300,000! With Eade gone, punters have rallied behind Sydney to beat Fremantle this week. Punters love to back sides that have had a coaching change, and within hours of the news getting out, we took just over $10,000 in bets for Sydney at $1.65. Now that Melbourne have found some winning form, at least on Victorian punter thinks they can sustain that form. He was in early with a $5000 bets for the Demons to beat Essendon on Friday night at $2.60, only to come back on Wednesday with another $5000 at $2.50. Port Adelaide ($1.25) and Brisbane ($1.08) will carry a fortune in multiple bets this weekend. Brisbane have also attracted a bet of $7000 to say they will defeat Carlton by more than 48 points, which they should do, but we rate the improving Bulldogs a strong chance to stay within 28 points of Port. Lots of bets totaling roughly $11,000 came in as soon as we posted that line, so punters disagree strongly with us. West Coast are $1.65 to continue the home to win dominance of sides from WA on Sunday. Adelaide ($2.20) will really struggle after playing in relatively heavy conditions last week and while we have been very eager to get anything we can out of the Crows, punters haven't been too accommodating! Several rumoured changes to Richmond saw $25,000 go on Geelong yesterday, forcing their quote from $1.85 into $1.62, but it is Geelong, and they have a shocking record when favourites. [Rugby Union | RUGBY UNION] If last weekend's International between France and Australia is any indication, we can expect some big betting on rugby matches in the future. Betting settled on Saturday with Australia at $1.20 and France at $4.50, with the handicap solid at 12½ points. The French were allegedly suffering from jet-lag, which explains why we weren't too worried when accepting a bet of €8000 from an English punter on them receiving the start. We thought that trend would then continue, but the late money was all for Australia. A New Zealander placed $40,000 on the Wallabies at -12½ points, while two $10,000 bets also came at the same handicap. All of a sudden we were left hoping that the French would be competitive, and that they were! After trailing 23-9 at half time, the French outscored Australia in the second half to be beaten 29-17, just sneaking inside the handicap. That match followed on from the New Zealand v Ireland game at Eden Park, and this was also a good betting match. We had to move the New Zealand handicap from -19 into -20½ points after several early substantial bets including $10,000 and $6000 both from New Zealand. The late money was split between the two sides, although when there was rumours of bad weather about, an English based Indian cricket client placed £8000 on Ireland with the start. The Irish defended well in the first half to only trail 13-3 at half time, but the floodgates opened in the second half, and they went down 40-8. This week, France will be similar odds to last week, and we have seen early support for them from some Australian punters who think they will be all the better for last weeks loss. A NSW client ploughed in with a $4000 win bet at $4.25 and $6600 at +12½ points, and there have been many smaller bets at those prices, but the Wallabies showed enough in the first half last week to say that they can deliver. While we haven't taken any big bets for Australia just yet, there is no need to panic as their supporters normally wait until the last few hours to place their bets. Australia have tightened up into $2.20 to win the Tri-Nations with three bets of $2000 following a bet of $8000 taken over the past two weeks at $2.30. New Zealand remain favourites at $1.90, with South Africa at $7.50. Locally premier rugby begins this weekend, and prices for those matches will be available Friday. [Formula One | FORMULA ONE] Rubens Barrichello finally got a win in last weeks European Grand Prix, but bookies faced some nervous moments at the end of the race wondering if Barrichello would again hand over the race to team-mate Michael Schumacher. Even Ferrari wouldn't be that audacious with them already having to front the governing body this week for the antics of six weeks ago, but the big difference this time was in the betting. On that occasion, Barrichello had qualified quickest and was a solid second favourite behind Schumacher, but this time it was Schumacher and Juan Pablo Montoya who dominated betting, with Barrichello fourth pick at $8. Schumacher attracted bets of $6000 and $4500 before qualifying at $1.65, and then bets of $5000 (twice) and $3000at $2.25. Montoya ($2.70) was easy to lay, but again failed to finish the race, and we are beginning to wonder when punters will give Montoya away. The only good news for his fans was he again qualified on pole position which landed several good sized bets at $3.75. Betting on a podium finish saw one English client come out well on top when he placed £1000 on Kimi Raikkonen at $6. Raikkonen ran third behind the Ferrari duo, and finished 7 seconds ahead of Ralf Schumacher, who was backed to take out in excess of $10,000 at $1.70 to also grab a podium finish. We shared the spoils with punters on the head to heads, with Montoya's early exit being the difference between winning and losing as he had been matched up with Barrichello. [Motor Bikes | MOTOR BIKES] Raging favourite Troy Bayliss won both Superbike races in San Marino on Sunday, but there was hardly any worthwhile betting action to report. Bayliss was $1.25 to win both races, with a little bit of interest shown in Colin Edwards at $4.50. Edwards finished second in both events, but Bayliss certainly has the measure of his competitors in this sport. The same applies to Valentino Rossi who will be a similar price to what Bayliss was when he lines up in the Dutch Grand Prix on Sunday. The $1.28 has frightened most away, but one New Zealand client thinks backing the Italian is "easy money" as he has placed $5000 to win $1400. Tohru Ukawa is second pick at $5, and while we haven't seen anything for Ukawa to win the race, we have taken a bet of $8000 from Malaysia that he will finish in the placings at $1.55. Ukawa is also the $2.25 favourite in our market for the best finish excluding Rossi, but the only bets we have seen on this option have been for Max Biaggi at $3. [Entertainment | ENTERTAINMENT] Punters got it all wrong when they backed Peter from $3 into $1.50 to be evicted from Australian Big Brother last Sunday. The opinion polls suggested it was tight, and the final figures saw Jessica get 37% of the vote compared to Peter's 32%, but the money late Thursday and Friday was for Peter. This was only the second time that the favourite hasn't been evicted, so it would be fair to say that the Centrebet markets have been a good barometer. The final three housemates are up for eviction on Sunday, with two going into battle on Monday to see who wins the $250,000. Marty remains firm favourite at $1.25 to win overall, but there has been a staggering amount of interest in Sunday's eviction. After opening up second favourite, Peter has joined Sara at $1.90, and even Marty is getting a few bets at $6. Fresh betting will be available on Monday up until midday for those who want to have a last "flutter" on who will win the big prize. [Golf | GOLF] Those who supported Phil Mickelson to win last week's Greater Hartford Open probably thought he was too far behind coming into the last round, but Mickelson's six under par round of 64 saw him grab victory by one shot from Davis Love and Jonathon Kaye. The result wasn't good for Centrebet as Mickelson was the best backed player at $8 before the event started, and we also took a $2400 bet at $8 prior to the last round. We took the precaution of cutting Mickelson's price in the British Open to $11 from $15, and although he is yet to win a major, he is hugely popular with punters. This week, David Toms and Nick Price are $10 equal favourites to win from last year's winner. Bob Estes, at $15. Price is also a previous winner, having won in 1998, and he has been backed to win $12,500 each way by one of our South African clients. Len Mattiace ($31), Steve Flesch ($34) and Jim Carter ($67) have each been backed to win $16,000 each way by a Victorian punter, while another has taken the $101 we put up for 2000 winner Notah Begay with a bet of $200 each way. Begay has had chronic back problems for over a year now, and we think he has seen better days. Colin Montgomerie has won three of the last six Irish Open's, but while he is our $8.50 favourite to win again this week, there must be growing concerns over his form since a recurring back injury has surfaced again. "Monty" has admirers to win again, but the next two in the betting have been the best supported. Padraig Harrington ($10) has been backed to take out in excess of $30,000 in early trading, while Darren Clarke ($11), has attracted a bet of $1600 each way. A host of other players have met with support, including Thomas Bjorn ($23), Eduardo Romero ($41) Soren Hansen ($51) and Aussie Peter O'Malley ($51). We have also matched up Harrington and Clarke in a head to head, and have seen just over $8000 bet early on the match-up, with action both ways. Hale Irwin is the $7 favourite to win the US Seniors Open, ahead of Tom Watson at $10. We haven't taken too many bets on this one, quite surprising as all the "legends" of golf are lining up. [Rugby League | RUGBY LEAGUE] League punters had the better of us leading into Sunday, but with the three Sunday matches all going to the outsiders, we staged a courageous fightback! What began as a quiet betting round ended up being one of the busiest of the season so far. The 12-12 draw between the Roosters and Parramatta saw Centrebet get a "start" for the round when a Sydney punter joined in late with a $25,000 bet for the Rooster's conceding 2½ points start. The big betting continued into Saturday and after we took an early bet of $18,000 for Melbourne to beat Souths at $1.20, we then took bets of $16,000, $10,000 and $7700 for Souths with 14½ points start. Those three bets were all but evaporated by a $30,000 wager for Melbourne conceding 14½ points start, and after a tight first half, Melbourne put the foot on the accelerator to score a big win 44-6. The same punter capped off a big night by placing $30,000 on Cronulla to beat the Cowboys at $1.44 (won 46-16) and $30,000 on the Bulldogs at -14½ points, and didn't have too many worries as they bolted in, winning 46-6. Sunday saw two $10,000 bets go on St George receiving 22½ start against Auckland, but we were happy to pay up with our big punter dropping $30,000 on Auckland. It was an amazing 32-22 win by the Dragons who had a lot of players out, and also killed off most of the multiple bets for the day. Penrith had a bet of $25,000 placed on them at -9½ ($1.90) against the Eagles, but they were never any chance of covering that spread when beaten 28-24, and after an early week plunge on Wests, we took bets of $25,000 and $15,000 for Newcastle ($1.80) to win, so that eased the burden when the Tigers won 28-12. Last night's Origin decider was well down on our expectations, and with so much at stake for both sides, it was quite surprising to see the lack of support for the Maroons. Qld "drifted" from $2.30 out to $2.70, with the largest win bet being only $5000, but we did manage to take $15,000 worth of bets when their handicap got to 5 start. The Blues, however, carried several big wagers including $25,000 ($1.50) and two bets of $20,000 to win at $1.55, and also two $20,000 bets conceding 4½ points start, followed by a $50,000 bet when the handicap moved to -5½ points. The 18-18 draw was probably a fitting result as both sides had made plenty of errors, while at the same time looking the winners. It couldn't have finished better for Centrebet as NSW had been backed to win big amounts to take the series, as had Qld, and we only recorded three very small bets for a "drawn" series at $15. The arguments for and against playing extra time in a deciding match to get a series winner have dominated the news today, but I have only one question concerning that, what happens if one of the first two matches are drawn? Assuming that was the case, does that then mean if either side then leads the Series 2-0, we won't have a third match as it would be pointless? With this weekend's round of league only opening this morning (Thurs), there isn't too much to tell at this stage. Friday night's match between Parramatta and Bulldogs is going along nicely with bets for both sides at $1.90. On Saturday, the Eagles now have a big advantage with their game being transferred to Brookvale, and in a match that would have been "take your pick" at Gosford, we have now seen punters eager to take the -4½ for the Eagles. One side that we have found easy to "lay" so far is Canberra, who will host Penrith on Sunday. Both these sides have displayed flashes of brilliance this season, but have mostly been pretty ordinary. Canberra seem poor value at $1.55, but one Sydney punter disagrees, placing $10,000 on the Raiders to win. We have also taken four bets totaling nearly $14,000 to say that Canberra will beat Penrith by more than the 4½ point handicap. We are all waiting to see how many Broncos pull out in Sunday's match against New Zealand, hence things are very quiet on that match. Brisbane are $1.35 to win, and we have taken a few small bets on the handicap (-8½), but it seems as though punters will wait until a side is announced on Sunday. [Soccer | SOCCER] And then there were two! The World Cup has come down to a final between two soccer "super powers" who have never played each other in a World Cup, and with both Brazil and Germany playing contrasting styles of football, not only do we have an interesting contest, but a good betting battle as well. Brazil and Germany are both very good winners in our championship book, with the biggest single bet so far for Brazil being $20,000 taken last week from a Sydney client at $3.50. We even managed to miss Germany for any big amounts until just prior to their semi final win when an Austrian client placed €14,000 on the Germans at $3.75. The outright betting now sees Brazil into $1.40, with Germany at $2.75. Within hours of posting that betting, just on $60,000 had come in for Brazil, so punters have shown an indication that they think the Cup will be heading to South America. The "90 minutes" betting has seen the money spread a little more evenly amongst all three options. Lots of small bets have come for Germany at $4, but we have already taken bets of £10,000 and $15,000 for Brazil at $1.85. The "draw" always commands plenty of respect in finals, and we have also seen early support at $3.20. Of the many other options available, "pick the score" and the "halftime/fulltime double" are easily the most popular. Early trading suggests that punters think the final will be low scoring as the 0-0 option ($6.50) has already been backed to win $40,000, and a 1-0 win by either side (Germany $8, Brazil $6) have been backed to win similar amounts. Of the 62 games played so far, there have only been a handful where the favourite has led at half time and full time, so given this is a big final, we haven't been greatly concerned by early money coming for Brazil ($3.20) to do exactly that. The finals series has also see some frantic betting take place on the goal totals being under/over 2½. The under is favourite in the final at $1.57, and while the majority of bets so far have been for the under, a Sydney punter has placed $10,000 on over at $2.30. The playoff for third place is
obviously nowhere near as popular as Sunday's game, but it looks as
though it won't be too far short of it. We opened South Korea at $2.30,
and they have been cut to $2.15 after a barrage of support, but the $3
for Turkey has also been taken. Most punters, and critics, seem to be
saying that because its not a playoff for first that both teams won't be
as motivated, but it's still a final, and the draw at $3.30 looks good
odds. Don't forget, Centrebet will cover both
finals "live", with several second half options available at
the major break. Enjoy the game, and go Germany!
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