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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES After a pretty torrid run of favourites in Aussie Rules, the bookies bounced back with a vengeance in round eleven when only four fav's were able to win outright, with some escaping major losses when the West Coast kicked a goal after the siren to draw with rank outsiders the Western Bulldogs. There is a lot of sympathy floating around for the Bulldogs at the moment as they still can't win matches that look their's for the keeping, and it happened again on Sunday, but spare a thought for a Victorian punter who was on the verge of a handy collect. He placed $4000 on the Bulldogs to win at $6.50, and for all bar two seconds of the match he looked certain to collect $22,000 in winnings. The draw saw that cut back to $9000, still a good win, but a case of 'what might have been'. Surprisingly in this game, plenty of punters gave the Bulldogs a chance of staying within the 38½ point handicap, and there were two bets of $4000 taken for the Bulldogs receiving the start. We can't add anything to what has already been said or written about last Friday's memorable match between the Kangaroos and Richmond. We lost on the game when all the late money came for the Roo’s, but it was one of those occasions where it was nearly a pleasure to lose given the events surrounding Jason McCartney. This ended up being the biggest Friday night betting game of the year, and we also noticed a huge surge in levels of interest from interstate following all the media attention given to it. After opening at $1.95, the Kangaroos were backed into $1.85, landing several big winning bets, as well as being the first leg of two 'pick fours' which totalled $55,000. As it transpired, neither of those bets won, so the overall result wasn't too bad. Hawthorn hung on to beat Adelaide by 5 points on Saturday, rewarding one punter who has stuck with the Hawks this season. He would still be on the wrong side of the ledger, but after placing $20,000 on the Hawks at $2.95, at least he has recouped $39,000. Even though we had that bet and several other smaller bets for Hawthorn, it was still the result we were looking for as the Crows were easy to lay, including one bet of $30,000 at $1.42. Adelaide being beaten seemed to frighten away favourite backers from the Brisbane Lions on Saturday night. The Lions were $1.20 shots, with the biggest bet recorded only being $9000, but naturally there was plenty going through them in multiples. A few injuries to key players have bought Brisbane back to the field, good news for us as they are a 'blackout' in our premiership book. Following that loss, the Lions are back out to $2.50, with Port Adelaide the big firmer's, now into $3.75. Of the Victorian sides, Collingwood are back into $10 ahead of Essendon at $17, but punters are steering well clear of any of the Vic's until they look to have a consolidated place in the eight. This week might be 'crunch week' for a couple of those namely the Kangaroos, Essendon and Richmond. The first two clash on Friday night at Telstra Dome, where Essendon go in as slight favourites over the Roos. The scene has been set with early bets of $12,000 and $8000 for Essendon at $1.75, but the Kangaroos ($2.10) can never be written off. Richmond are $1.38 to beat Carlton, and while that looks likely to happen, Richmond's record when favourites is abysmal. The Tiger's are one of the sides teetering on the brink of the final eight, but with Carlton struggling, many have availed themselves to the short odds on offer for a Richmond win, as well as two bets worth $12,000 to say that they will beat an 17½ point spread. Sydney will be at home to the Bulldogs on Saturday night even though the fixture lists Sydney as the 'away' side. This is another of those home games 'surrendered' by the Victorians, and on current form, the Bulldogs are probably wishing that they were playing anywhere else but Sydney. The Swans thumped Essendon by 54 points at Telstra Stadium last week, and if anything are a more potent outfit at the SCG. That is why the Swans are $1.25, or conceding 27½ points start to the Bulldogs. Michael Voss will be out of the Lions side for at least three weeks, so there is some little chance that the Eagles can get over the top of them at the Gabba on Sunday. The Eagles are a proven side away from home, and injuries are starting to take a toll on Brisbane, so we have been eager to lay them this week. It's been a battle, but we have taken win bets of $5000 and $4200 at $1.32, as well as bets of $4000 and $3500 for them to overcome a handicap of 27½ points. The injury to Voss has meant that he is a big drifter in the Brownlow, now out to $3.50 after being as short as $2.25. Gavin Wanganeen, who won the Brownlow ten years ago, has joined Voss at that price, with the other significant movers being Adam Goodes ($13-$9). Nick Stevens ($26-$13) and another previous winner, Robert Harvey, now into $15. RUGBY LEAGUE Well, the punters got the cash when the Bulldogs beat a depleted Roosters side 28-18 last Friday night, but it was hardly an awesome victory, and only goes to reinforce what we have been thinking for a while, and that is that the Bulldogs are only a shadow of the team they were last year. It appears as though all the turmoil of 2002, and that there are already players signing up for other clubs for the 2004 season, is all starting to catch up with their on field performance. The 'baby Roosters' put up a good show in that match, and luckily there was some money for them when they drifted out, including $7000 to win at $3 as well as two $5000 bets with 7½ points start. Apart from that though, it was all the Bulldogs, including two $20,000 bets to win at $1.50. That got punters off to a flying start for the weekend, and money for all favourites was in plentiful supply. New Zealand were one of the sides backed as soon as betting opened last Wednesday, with two $10,000 bets coming for the Kiwi's conceding 7½ points start at $1.90. In a pretty good betting game, late money arrived for Cronulla to win at $3, and while they looked a fleeting hope when only down 8-6 at half time, New Zealand played the better football in the soggy conditions in the second half to run out easy winners, 23-6. Penrith scored a try near the end of extra-time to win their eighth match in a row, and after copping plenty of criticism early in the year, the Panthers are now into $13 to win the title. As this game against North QLD wasn't televised live, betting was on the quiet side. When Rhys Wesser pulled out of the Penrith side, there was money for the Cowboys at $2.40, even though they were missing Matt Sing and Paul Bowman through Origin duty. When the Cowboys trailed 14-6 at half time, their chances looked 'shot', but to their credit they fought their way back to a four point lead before Penrith scored to take the game into overtime. With North QLD a realistic top eight chance, they may well rue the 'one that got away', but they have displayed this year that they are definitely a team of the future. I don't know why, but we gave the Eels another chance when they travelled to Canberra, but it has finally sunk in that the Eels are just no good! They put up a bit of a fight for the first 20 minutes, but in the second half it was nearly a point a minute as the Raiders raced away to a 50-14 victory. Several $10,000 wagers were taken for Canberra to beat the 7½ point handicap, and although we haven't seen any serious money for them to win the title at $12, on exposed form they have to be rated highly. We were at the bottom end of the market for a South’s win on Sunday, but there must have been money for the Rabbitoh's around the country as we took two bets totalling $16,000 with 8½ points start on Sunday morning. That took a bit of the gloss off an emphatic 41-14 win over the Melbourne Storm, but there were plenty of Storm fans out there who thought they would cover that mark. Whilst the $1.33 for a Melbourne win was hard to sell, we did take bets of $10,000 (twice), and $8000 for Melbourne to cover the handicap. This week we have been consumed by State of Origin, which saw game one go to New South Wales 25-12 in a real tough battle. The final score wasn't an indication of how close the game was, and there were several injuries to come out of the game, with the worst one suffered by Justin Hodges closely followed by a bad injury to the bank accounts of most bookmakers ! NSW were backed from an opening $2.25 into $2.05, and it appeared as though QLD punters couldn't grasp the fact that their side were favourites. We didn't see the normal influx of small bets from the Sunshine State for the Maroons, probably due to the fact that they were odds on. Fortunately we were able to locate a couple of big punters from elsewhere who thought QLD would win, led up by a 10,000 pound bet from England at $1.75, as well as a $20,000 bet ($1.70) from Victoria. There were also several $5000 bets for QLD conceding 2.5 points start, but that only helped to cover some of the money plonked on NSW. Queensland are really up against it now as only three teams since Origin went to a “best of three’ in 1983 have been able to win the series after losing the first game, and now the QLD need to find some replacements for the injured Hodges, Paul Bowman and Chris Flannery. After being $1.65 to win the series, the Queenslanders have blown out to $4.50, with NSW into $1.20. Now the fun begins with the upcoming round. With Newcastle, the Roosters and Brisbane having such a strong hand in last night's match, we chose not to open those games until this morning. Newcastle are at home to the Dragons on Friday night, and with their side appearing to be at full strength, we have assessed the Knights as $1.36 chances. Sunday's match for the Roosters should be a percentage booster following a 32-0 routing of the Cowboys in Townsville back in round five, but the Cowboys are definitely a better side now. They will still go in as rank outsiders at $5, and there has already been a bet of $10,000 for the Cowboys at +14½ ($1.90). Historically Brisbane struggle throughout this series, and even though they had a bye last week, we think that the all-conquering Canberra Raiders can put them away on Sunday. It's always difficult to know how punters will react following Origin games, but we thought that $2.20 for the Bronco's might be attractive. We were right as there has been a $4,000 bet for Brisbane to win, as well as a $10,000 wager for them with 3½ points start. Early money has arrived for Penrith at $1.40 to beat Melbourne, even though the Panthers were on the receiving end of a 42-16 point drubbing when they met in round two. The fortunes of these two sides have fluctuated since then, and now Penrith are going for nine wins in a row. The Bulldogs are another favourite that have drawn early support in their encounter with Manly. The $1.22 was taken with bets to the value of $18,000, and we have also seen two $10,000 bets for the Bulldogs conceding 13½ points start. In premiership betting, we have cut the Roosters to $3 even though beaten last week. On current form, there is no reason at all why they won't win back to back titles, and the other difficulty facing bookmakers is that there are a few sides well in the betting that are impossible to lay, so we are prepared to wait and see what happens over the next ten weeks ENTERTAINMENT Backing favourites to get kicked out of the Big Brother household is a very profitable business after another favourite, Claire, was shown the exit sign on Sunday night. $1.30 was available for Claire early in the week after we had seen early money for Saxon at $3, but it became obvious later in the week that opinion polls had Claire in their sights to be evicted, and we followed that lead and cut her price to $1.05. This week, we see Joanne installed as the shortest opening price we have ever had for an eviction, and pollsters agree. The public have seen through the game that the 'blonde bombshell' has been playing, and there are plenty of 'anti-Joanne' campaigns going out there in viewer land. Even the ultra conservative opening quote of $1.10 was taken with a $2000 bet from Queensland for Joanne to be evicted, but having said that, Daniel has had his fair share of backing at $4. Regina, the short $1.50 to carry away the big prize, is rated a $34 chance to be evicted, and hasn't attracted a single bet. GOLF It has taken over three years but big hitting Rory Sabbatini has finally won his second PGA tour event in winning the FBR Capital Open by four shots from an unlucky Duffy Waldorf, Fred Funk and an improving Joe Durant. After rained washed out play on the Saturday, and the course being too waterlogged to allow 36 holes on the Sunday, play was completed on the Monday, the first time since the FedEx St Jude Classic preceeded the '99 Open. Sabbatini held a three shot lead entering the final 18 holes and needed to hold his nerve to keep the well supported Niclas Fasth and Padraig Harrington at bay. Neither were able to capitalize on the inward nine and it was left to veterans in Duffy Waldorf, Fred Funk and Joe Durant to keep Sabbatini honest. This week we head to Chicago where Tiger Woods will attempt to win back to back US Opens, this year being held at Olympia Fields. Not much is known about this course as it has not held a Major since the 1961 PGA Championship, and after undergoing several face-lifts and hole changes, will be quite unfamiliar, even to locals like Jeff Sluman. Because of this, it is shaping as one of the best supported Opens in recent times with Woods solid favourite at $3.35 and along with Ernie Els ($5000 at $11), Vijay Singh ($5000 at $12), Padraig Harrington (8000SEK at $26), Darren Clarke ($1500 at $51) and Thomas Bjorn (2000SEK at $151) all solid in the betting. There are a host of bet types available on this years, event including "Make the Cut", which always is appealing to punters, Group Betting, Tournament Head to Heads, 1st round Three balls and Fourball/Bestballs, all of which are helping to make the 2003 US Open a betting bonanza. And on a course which may favour thinkers and stroke makers, our tip is Stewart Cink, while Phil Mickelson, twice runner-up in this event, also hard to beat despite some less than convincing performances since the Masters. Last week on the European tour, Greg Owen captured his maiden title at his 158th start when he won the British Masters in Warwickshire. He held a comfortable four shot lead entering the final round, and after holding off a challenge from last weeks Celtic Manor Resort Wales Open winner, Ian Poulter, proved too strong and won by three shots. Heavily supported Darren Clarke finished strongly for a tie for fourth, and appears to be finding some form leading into this weeks US Open. We head to Calais in France for this weeks event, the Aa St Omer Open, which has not attracted a particularly strong field but if the betting is any indication it should produce an exciting finish. On other tours last week, John Jacobs did what his brother Tommy nearly achieved twice, by capturing a major title in the Seniors PGA Championship held at Aronimink Golf Club. Jacobs was always handy to the lead and although he trailed Irishman Des Smyth by two shots into the final day, a solid four under 68, was enough to take the Championship by two shots from Bobby Wadkins. Smyth faltered with a two over 74 and finished in a tie for 5th with Doug Tewell. With the running of the US Open there will be no Champions tour event this week. On the LPGA scene, Annika Sorenstam won back to back events when she defeated Grace Park on the first hole of a sudden death play-off in taking the McDonalds LPGA Championship. It is the first time she has won this event and takes her Major tally to five. Rosie Jones, another consistent finish, Beth Daniel and Rachel Teske, all finished level with card in a tie for third. Betting for this weeks Giant Eagle Classic has become somewhat stifled as Sorenstam , $2.20 fav, dominates the betting. As punters attempt to find a way to bet around her, other members on the tour must find a way to beat her. Others in the betting this week include Se Ri Pak at $6.50 and Han and Ochoa both at $16. The value could come from defending champion Mi Hyun Kim at $21, as she has been showing some form in recent tournaments. RUGBY UNION If betting on last weeks International Tests is any indication then bookmakers around the country will be in for a betting extravaganza come the World Cup in October. We kicked off on Saturday with a test between the Wallabies and Ireland. Both countries were without big name players but that did not detract from the hype or punters eagerness to try their hand. Our first wager was $10000 on Australia giving 14½ points start at $1.90, this was followed by an English client having £5000 on Ireland receiving 14½ points at $1.93. Betting didn't stop there and was brisk up until kick off time. Our final wager was from a South African client who placed $20,000 on Australia giving the start at $1.90, which placed us in the unenviable position of having to barrack for Ireland. The second test took place at Kings Park Durban on Saturday night when South Africa hosted Scotland. The Springboks were expected to have an easy victory and were well supported at $1.12 both through singles and multi’s but at the handicap Scotland still had its supporters with one of our English clients having £5000 on Scotland receiving 16½ points at $1.90. The final test on Monday in Wellington saw New Zealand Maori take on a second string English side which had a blending of experience, aka Vickery, and youth. The weather may have been unkind to the visitors but that did not put the workmanlike pack off its game as it continually made inroads up the middle. This match was also well supported with numerous wagers on both teams at the line of 6½ points, one of our English clients remaining faithful to the old country by placing £5000 on England receiving the start. All in all not much separated the punters and us at the conclusion of the three tests but it also was an encouraging sign of what is to come. This weekend tests commence with the All Blacks hosting England late Saturday afternoon in windy Wellington followed by the Wallabies hosting Wales at Stadium Australia in the evening. Most interest at this stage has been in game one where two of the true giants of rugby collide in what is sure to be an enthralling contest of strength and speed. The conditions are likely to be similar to last week which may help the English and offers the logic as to why they have been well supported in receiving 7½ points at $1.90. We believe they will need more than weather to help if they are to topple the number one ranked nation in the world. Little interest has been shown in the other two matches where the Wallabies are a prohibitive quote of $1.06 to defeat Wales, and remaining confused as to the prospects of South Africa, insipid in their first test, and Scotland still looking for a competitive combination, in the other. All in all it should offer the first real pointers as to the prospects of these countries in the upcoming World Cup. TENNIS Juan Carlos Ferrero was favourite to win the French Open from the moment betting opened a few weeks ago, and although both he and co-finalist Martin Verkerk were big winners in our Open book, it was Ferrero whom we wanted to break through for his first Major win over his little known Dutch opponent. Both Ferrero and Verkerk provided us with several favours with wins throughout the tournament, including the semi-finals. Verkerk actually landed a winning bet of $8000 at $3.50 in his semi (from Sydney), but a straight sets win over Guillermo Coria blasted out a $25,000 double into Ferrero to win the other semi, along with a host of similar bets around the $5000 mark. As soon as betting opened on the final, punters latched onto Verkerk, who two weeks prior was rated a $151 chance to win the final by some bookies. That support continued until his price closed at $3.25, with some of the larger bets being $USD 4000 from India ($3.50) and €3500 from Austria at the same quote. All that support saw the price for Ferrero drift from $1.25 out to $1.35 at one stage, and some of the bigger winning bets included $50,000 from Sweden at $1.35, and $20,000 from an Australian client at $1.30. Ferrero is a 'gun' on clay, but the betting on a straight sets victory was easily our best result as punters preferred to back him to win in three or four sets. The 'all Belgium' ladies final produced an even betting contest, although the game itself was very one-sided. Most of the money held on the women’s was on Serena Williams, so when she bowed out (ungracefully!), our betting book was in pretty good shape. Eventual winner, Justine Henin-Hardene, opened at $2.10, but overseas money saw that price cut to $2 just before the start. Ironically, Henin's 2-0 victory was a terrific result in the 'sets betting' option offered as all the money was for Kim Clijsters to win either 2-0 or 2-1, or for Henin to win 2-1, which attracted a $5000 bet at $4 from England. Matching the pair up, there was little doubt that Clijster's has had the better of her compatriot in the past, but for the second time in three years in Paris, she was found 'wanting' when the acid was applied. Australian punters got right behind Kim Clijsters, with several big bets coming for her including two bets of $5000, each coming from Sydney. The 'Queens' tournament is on this week, and the frantic betting on each game has continued on from the French Open. As yet, Wimbledon betting is not opened. It really has been a struggle trying to assess the prices and form. Consider these conundrums: Lleyton Hewitt, probable favourite, is down on form and has parted company with another coach, second elect Andre Agassi is getting on in years, third choice looks to be Tim Henman, (need we say any more?), and then we have the usual line-up of clay courters who normally just make up the numbers. This year might be a different matter however as the 'mail' coming from England is that the courts at Wimbledon have 'slown down', which might just suit the likes of Ferrero and the big serve of Verkerk. Consistency is a word that is currently lacking in men’s tennis, so we will sit back and see what develops at Queens before opening up the Wimbledon betting. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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