|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Aussie
Rules
|
Centrebet Capers AUSTRALIAN RULES Punters were again on the receiving end of a savage battering on last week's AFL, and after a bad run of favourites, bookies find themselves 'back in the game' following results of the past two weeks. On Friday night, the Kangaroos continued on with their unbelievable form to beat Essendon by eight points, giving us a very handy start to the weekend. The Bombers were backed from an opening $1.72 into $1.60 at kickoff. The largest bet for Essendon was only $7000 at $1.70, but there were several $5000 bets placed on the Bombers at various odds, while one Roos supporter plonked $6000 on his beloved side when they touched $2.30. We flagged Essendon early in the year as a possibility to miss the finals, and a $15,000 bet on them at $1.65 to make the final eight is now precariously placed. In fact, we have the 'Roos at a shorter quote ($1.57) to contest the finals than Essendon, now out to $2.15. Richmond maintained their poor form when favourites at the hands of Carlton on Saturday. The Tigers were very easy to lay at $1.40, and also -17½ points, including three bets totaling $22,000, but we also saw late interest in Carlton when the weather turned ordinary. The windy conditions were expected by some to keep the two sides closer together, which it did do. The closeness of the game saw a surge in betting interest at each break, with most of the money arriving for Richmond. The St Kilda bubble burst in 'Artic' conditions at York Park on Saturday afternoon. The 42 point victory by Port Adelaide didn't really cost us that much as there was good money for the Saints at $3.40, and also to stay within 23 points of Port. It was very similar later on that night when the Western Bulldogs traveled to Sydney. We thought the Swans were good things, but the way results have been going, it is a bit hard to stick with short priced favourites, so we put the prices up and let the punters decide which way to go. It was quite a good betting match, with money for both sides, but the end result, a 10 goal win to Sydney, was a slight loser after we accepted a late bet of $11,000 for the Swans at -27½ points ($1.90). A Victorian client cleaned us up when a valiant Gee long went down to Fremantle by 16 points. He came at us on three occasions, placing a total of $30,000 on Gee long who was in receipt of 30 points start. The Cats were never really going to win, but always looked certain to stay inside that handicap. After tipping the West Coast to beat Brisbane, and with Hawthorn beating Collingwood, it's not hard to work out that Sunday was a good day for Centrebet. Brisbane never moved in the betting from $1.32, and while there was any amount of support for the Lions, in what was possibly one of the years biggest Sunday betting games, we also took two $4000 bets for the West Coast at $3.20 as well as a bet of $10,000 for the Eagles with four goals start. The Lions kicked the first goal but that was the only time they were in front with the Eagles kicking the biggest bag of goals ever again them at the 'Gabba’. Whilst some punters latched onto the Eagles, there was hardly a soul who rated Hawthorn a chance to rack up another win. It was quite astounding the money that came for Collingwood, especially after Nathan Buckley was a confirmed starter. We maintained that playing Buckley, who was struggling with injury, may have been detrimental to the chances of the Magpies, and there is little doubt that Buckley wasn't 100% as he didn't have his usual impact on the game. After opening at $1.42, then touching $1.48 when we were 'chasing' Magpie money, Collingwood were backed into $1.36, carrying two separate $30,000 bets at $1.38 and $1.36. The Magpies were also a leg of a $30,000 treble, coupled up with Brisbane and Adelaide, but of course by the time it became evident that Hawthorn were going to win, Brisbane had already gone down. Now that we are at the half way mark, and with a week off, we can all take a deep breath and try and work out were the season is headed. Looking at the table, and the betting, it looks a mere formality that the six interstate sides will hold onto their spots in the eight. With that in mind it gets very difficult! Collingwood are in a form slump, but have a look at who they play in the next six weeks, and where, and you will soon see that it is highly likely that there will be enough wins in that period to see them make the finals. Then there is a 'log jam' for one remaining spot, and with the Kangaroos, Essendon and Richmond fighting that battle out, final eight betting is alive and well. For good measure, Hawthorn are back in the mix, and with five wins, and on current form, the Hawks are a real chance to get past all of the above, and that is why we aren't too keen on taking any money for Hawthorn at around the $3.50 mark. The good thing about Brisbane's loss last week is that the premiership race has really opened up. The Lions are now $2.85, and it is only that they are a huge liability in our book that they are not a much better price. Using that theory, that means that a lot of the other sides are probably 'overs', and we are beginning to see support for Port ($3.25), and Adelaide at $7.50, but as yet nothing serious for the West Coast, who are now into $8. Brownlow betting is just as perplexing following last weekend's games. We have cut Ben Cousins from $26 to $13 after his performance, and Cousins is a player that we have had no trouble laying in previous years when he hits form. St Kilda's Lenny Hayes is one player who is being mentioned as a possibility, and he is also well in the betting at $21. Last week we laid Hayes to take out just over $25,000 at $26, and he, along with Robert Harvey ($16), are two players who would cost us dearly if the award was handed to either at this stage. RUGBY LEAGUE Similar to the Aussie Rules, favourites fared badly in the aftermath of State of Origin with only four winning, and those four also failed to cover their allocated handicaps. A near full strength Newcastle were lucky to come away with the points against St George on Friday night. Big money went on the Knights, including $20,000 at -8½ points, as well as a $25,000 bet to win outright at $1.40. It was only 'that man' Andrew Johns who stood between the Dragons and victory, and while the Dragons can take heart in some pretty good losing performances recently, it isn't helping their cause in trying to qualify for the finals. Cronulla had hearts racing for those that took the $1.22 when they recorded a 28-26 win over the Tigers in the first game on Saturday. Even though this was a televised game, it wasn't very busy, but the result went the right way as there was money for Cronulla conceding 11 points start. New Zealand were heavily backed around the country against Parramatta, but we didn't really have a big win on this game when a couple of late players took the odds on offer for the Eels, one with $12,000 ($2.35 ), the other with $6600 at the same quote. In the other Saturday game, Melbourne improved their own weight to beat Penrith 32-12. Everyone has been saying that the Panthers were due to lose one, and with Melbourne getting smashed by Souths last week, some rightly predicted that the ingredients were there for an upset. After taking two $5000 bets for Penrith early in the week at $1.40, interest 'dried up' in the Panthers, and we didn't get anywhere near enough out of them in the finish. Sunday's 34-20 point victory by the Bulldogs over Manly was really frustrating as it was another of those finishes that went the wrong way by half a point. We posted the handicap at 13½ in favour of the Bulldogs, which was taken by four separate bets of $10,000 at various odds. Manly had several chances in the closing minutes to reduce the margin to less that 14 points, but our luck was out on this occasion. It was also out when Brisbane winger Scott Minto intercepted a kick to score a length of the field try and beat Canberra 24-20. Our 'game plan' was to lay Brisbane early in the week and then see what happened after State of Origin. That all went exceptionally well, with early bets of $10,000 for Brisbane with 3½ points start, and two win bets of $4000 at $2.20. When Gorden Tallis and Tonie Carroll were ruled out of the Bronco's side, Canberra shortened significantly from $1.65 into $1.50, attracting some solid support. Surprisingly, with the facts and figures pointing towards a Canberra win, a couple of late bets, one $20,000, the other $8000, came for Brisbane at $2.50, so what could have been a good result evaporated before our very eyes with that late try. The two early shoppers who each placed $10,000 on the North QLD Cowboys with 14½ points start were always in the driver's seat when the Roosters, courtesy of a Brad Fittler field goal, managed to edge out the Cowboys 15-14 in a dour struggle. This match was in complete contrast to the 42-0 whipping that the Roosters gave the Cowboys in the first round in Townsville, but might serve as a good 'wake up' call to the Roosters, who are still the premiership favourites at $3.25. Origin game two is open for betting, and the only argument internally we had was how short New South Wales should be. We finally settled on $1.50, or – 5½ points, with the thinking being that the Maroons would have trouble filling the gaps left by the injuries received in game one. They still have a handy side on paper, but it is going to take a mighty effort to turn the tables. Early betting has seen several small bets come for Queensland at $2.50, but as there has been no sign of our bigger league punters who backed NSW in game one, so it looks likely that they will now hold off until next week. ENTERTAINMENT Another eviction, another favourite! The signs were ominous early in the week for 'dream gal' Joanne to be sent packing, and that is what happened when she got the highest ever percentage of an evictee on Australian Big Brother. Joanne grabbed 86% of the vote, and the guys that work in our office are convinced that it must have been an all female voting public! As we said last week, Joanne ($1.10) was the shortest price that we have ever opened on an eviction, but she now has a partner in Kim following this week's opening market. Kim is a late entry into the field, coming in two weeks ago as an intruder, and has systematically upset most in the house as well as certain sections of the public with some of her comments. To make things all the more interesting, the whole household is up for eviction this week, and two of the housemates will go. The early betting would suggest that Vincent will be leaving along with Kim as the $1.50 was taken as soon as betting opened, and there hasn't really been too much interest in any of the others. Regina is still favourite to win the big prize at $1.80, but with Joanne's demise last week, we are beginning to think that it does really look like a larger number of the voters are female, and that is not good news for any female who will be around to the end. For that reason alone, we are beginning to see money come for Patrick and Daniel (both $4.50) to take out the major prize. POLITICS The next Australian federal election is not due to be decided until the end of 2004, but with all the hype surrounding the leadership of the Labor Party, we thought it may be an opportune time to open the betting, and it certainly has created some interest around the country. We didn't bet on the battle between Crean and Beazley, as we decided that there was a good chance that some may well be aware of the 'numbers', and judging by what the press wrote over the weekend, and how accurate they were, it is probably a good thing that we kept out of it. With Kim Beazley out of the picture (for the time being), we have posted Labor at $4 to win the next election. There are of course many factors that come into that price, but it is hard to get away from reports that Simon Crean is more popular in his own party than with the Australian public. The $4 we are offering has been a talking point as to how good the odds are, but that hasn't been reflected in any betting activity as we have taken less than $200 at that quote. A lot can change with election betting, and we only have to look back at the last election. Labor were near on unbackable for 6 months, the 'Tampa issue' and 'September 11' saw the odds do an 'about face', John Howard became the raging favourite, and went on to record a landslide victory. Those events haven't provided much of a deterrent to a few though, as we have already taken a bet of $1000, and two of $500 for the Coalition at $1.20, and if Mr. Howard and company get a gauge on the level of their popularity with punters, I would say that we will all be trundling off to the polling booth's a lot sooner than November 2004. BOXING Ukranian Doctor Vitali Klitschko will take on Lennox Lewis in Los Angeles this weekend to decide the WBC World Heavyweight Title. Klitschko is the number one contender, and is a 'man mountain', standing at 6'7½ inches, but has a shorter 'reach' than his smaller opponent. This will be Lewis' first bout since doing Mike Tyson over, and he is a warm favourite at $1.20. We have taken a bet of $8000 at that quote, as well as bets of $5000 and $4000 for Lewis to win by KO at $1.40. Lewis' record of 43 starts for only 2 losses and one draw is very imposing, but the money for a Lewis KO victory would be as a result of an impressive 31 victories via that method. Having said all that, Klitschko has deserved his nickname of 'Iron fist'. With a record of 33 fights for only one loss, and 31 of those by KO's, it’s not surprising that there has been money for him to win. Admittedly the opposition has been inferior to those whom have lined up against Lewis, but all you can do is win! After opening at $4.50, Klitschko is now into $4, having been backed to take out over $40,000 in early trading. Most of that money has come from Eastern Europe where 'the Doctor' obviously has a decent following, so we have a great betting bout on our hands. If the tip is right, and Klitschko comes out trying to land an early winner, there is every chance that he will become an easy target for Lewis in the latter rounds, which would also explain why we have seen money for Lewis to win in rounds 4, 5, and 6. Whatever happens, it is sure to be an epic event. TENNIS The early path through Wimbledon has been made a little easier for Lleyton Hewitt with the withdrawal of Richard Krajicek, but we are still doubtful whether Hewitt is anywhere near his best, and are prepared to 'take him on' to make it back to back wins. Krajicek's exit will mean that Hewitt will meet two qualifiers in the first two rounds, but assuming he gets through those stages, he then might have to meet Taylor Dent and Andy Roddick. That duo have excellent form on grass, and it is feasible that either could send Lleyton on his way. The price for Hewitt has eased slightly from $5.50 out to $6 following the release of the draw, but we are looking at further down the track instead of the first two rounds. We have laid Lleyton to take out close to $75,000 at this stage, but not a terrible lot of that money has come from Australia. We have listed Andre Agassi as favourite at $5, and experience has taught us that Agassi is without doubt the most popular player with punters in the world, and that if he impresses in the early rounds, he will firm up very quickly. Third elect is Roger Federer at $6, and while he also has the capabilities to win, he has to overcome a mental hurdle of getting past the first round. In three of the last five Grand Slams he has played in, Federer hasn't made it past the first round! We also rate highly the chances of either Roddick ($6.50), or Dent ($34). While not a natural net volleyer, Roddick has a game 'made' for grass, and is now coached by Andre Agassi's ex-coach Brad Gilbert, while Taylor Dent has a good record on grass, and a powerful serve to match. Tim Henman, carrying the hopes of all of England, has been backed to take out close to $50,000 this week at $13, but with the weight of a nation on his back, and a recurring shoulder injury, we are prepared to risk him. As usual, Centrebet will cover all men's and women's matches on a daily basis. GOLF Jim Furyk's victory in the 103rd US Open on Sunday was a long time coming, a win at his 33rd attempt in a Major, and along with Rich Beem and Mike Weir, are holders of a Major title for the first time. Significantly enough it now leaves the mantle of the "best player never to win a Major" firmly on the shoulders of Phil Mickelson, who at his 44th attempt, is quickly running out of time. And while Furyks' final round could hardly be described as sublime golf, the practice of hitting fairways and draining putts proved a successful formula in this Open. Early challengers such as Woods and Singh could not sustain the consistency needed to prevail on a course which was not overly long yet full of treachery. Punters did not forget to support Furyk at $31, who along with Woods, Els, and Singh was best backed to win a tournament he had threatened for so long. At this stage it is fair to mention the effort of "Aussie bolter", Stephen Leaney who was expected to succumb to final day pressure. His final round two over par 72 had the hallmarks of a roller coaster ride, with a double bogey and numerous other bogies, but he showed grit with his fair share of birdies as well and along with Nick Price carried the Centrebet flag into the final day. Unfortunately neither were able to pull off the victory we were hoping for, but nevertheless Furyk was a deserving winner. We head to up state New York this week, where Chris Smith will defend his sole tour victory in the Buick Classic. Last year he was able to defeat a high class field which included the likes of Furyk, Els and Mickelson but it would take a super human effort considering he has missed nine cuts already this season with his best finish a tie for thirteenth at the Chrysler Classic in March. Such lead up form hardly inspires confidence and punters have elected to follow the fortunes on Ernie Els, $5000 at $10, and Stewart Cink $2000 at $26 as the players most likely to perform well here. There is little doubt that there will be a let down for big name players after the Open as is evidenced by players such as Andrade, Frost, Hayes and Paulson being successful in the past. Another first time winner on tour perhaps? The European Tour saw a well supported Brett Rumford, $300 each way at $41, lead from go to woo in taking out the Aa St Omer Open in France. The field may have been void of big names but that did not deter from the quality of Rumfords' play as he held off all comers to win his maiden European event by five shots over Ben Mason. This week Adam Scott returns to defend his Diageo Championship at Gleneagles where he has been well supported at $12. Favourite is Paul Casey, winner in 2001, at $9 from Colin Montgomerie also at $12 and threatening a return to form after finishing in a tie for 41st at last weeks US Open. Also well supported has been two other Australians, Peter Fowler and Jarrod Moseley, both backed to win over $20,000 at $51. The good week for Australian golfers didn't finish in Europe either as Rachel Teske won The Giant Eagles LPGA Classic on the fourth hole of a four way play-off which included Annika Sorenstam, Lorie Kane and Jennifer Rosales. This was Teskes seventh victory on tour and was an indication of her recent return to form which featured a third in the McDonalds LPGA Championship behind Sorenstam the previous week. Karrie Webb has the opportunity to return to form when she defends her Wegmans Rochester title she won last year, and has installed as $9 second pick behind Se Ri Pak at $5. Best supported in this event has been Beth Daniel, $200 each way at $41 and Wendy Ward, $300 each way at $51, and with Sorenstam not competing expect this to be another exciting finish. RUGBY UNION The results of last weeks test matches proved one thing, England is now a real threat in this year's Rugby World Cup and no other Northern Hemisphere country has a realistic chance. England has firmed into $3.75 and along with New Zealand at $2.50 and the Wallabies at $3.50, dominate the betting. Most countries have yet to find the combination which may bring home 'The Holy Grail', however the English team appears well settled with a formidable pack and a defence to match. Saturday's test at Colonial Stadium in Melbourne between the Wallabies and England should go a long way to validating the chance of England , and it appears punters are convinced they are the real deal with over $20,000 placed on them at the opening odds of $1.90. It has been a long time since England on the road has started favourite against Australia, however the early weight of money suggest this may be the case, and with Australian second string fly-half Elton Flatley missing because of disciplinary reasons, the Wallabies may struggle with their kicking game. Other tests this week sees France marginal favourites against Argentina in Buenos Aires, while the All Blacks are prohibitive odds as they take on Wales in Hamilton. Little involvement by punters in either of these games as the test in Melbourne has centre stage, however don't be surprised to see betting liven up towards kick off, as the game in Argentina could go either way. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
