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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES It seems like an eternity since we had a game of AFL, but the action returns on Friday night after a week off. The match between Essendon and Geelong could well seal the fate of the Bombers. They haven't set the world on fire this year, and at best look like they are only capable of grabbing a bottom spot in the eight. Geelong on the other hand has shown vast improvement over the last month, but is completely friendless in the betting this week. Normally Friday night favourites shorten, and a couple of early bets for Essendon, including $12,000 and $8500 at $1.55 have set the pattern, with Essendon certain to start shorter. The turmoil at Melbourne hasn't abated any, and they really are unpopular with punters at the moment. Melbourne are $2.35 to beat St Kilda this week, and after two full days of betting, only $20 had been placed on the Demons Collingwood hold the honour of attracting the biggest AFL bet of the week so far after a Victorian placed $20,000 on them at the opening quote of $1.53. That has been followed up by another bet of $8000 bet at $1.50, so it would be very timely if the Western Bulldogs put up a display like they did against the West Coast a few weeks ago. Sydney travel to Adelaide to take on Port, and while we think that the Swans can win, punters disagree. The $1.28 for a Port win has easily been the best supported 'shortie' through multiples, and two bets totalling $14,300 have been placed on Port conceding 25½ points start. We are confronted by a similar scenario when Richmond goes to Brisbane. The Lions form has been scratchy, and they aren't 'burying' sides like they have done over the past two seasons, so we were surprised when two bets of $2500 came on Wednesday for Brisbane at -28½ points. Richmond are a terrible side when favourites, but if there is one side capable of kicking a big score, its Richmond, or should we say Richardson! An interesting battle looms on Sunday between Hawthorn and Fremantle. A lot is dependant on whether Peter Everitt will be right for Hawthorn, and if you can believe what you saw in their last two wins, then the $1.75 is well over the odds. But, it is Hawthorn, and a lot, including ourselves, are yet to be convinced. There has been a lack of faith shown by punters as well, with hardly any money going on the Hawks in the early stages of betting, whereas the Dockers have had two bets of $2000 placed on them at $2. Carlton are rated a good chance at $2.40 to upset the Crows on Sunday at Optus Oval. Weather might be a key factor here, with storms on the way to Melbourne, and in those conditions at Optus, anything can happen. We have seen a couple of bets of $1000 come for Adelaide at $1.55, and a bet of $4000 at -12½, but most will probably wait until the weekend until placing bets on this one. In premiership betting, the best backed sides during the break have been Port at $3.25, and the West Coast at $8. The Eagles have had three separate bets of $1000 placed on them, while Port have had a series of smaller bets, all coming from 'the City of Churches'. RUGBY LEAGUE After numerous quotes of 'no Johns, no Newcastle', I don't know why we didn't take notice ourselves as Penrith's 34-6 drubbing of the Knights was very costly for Centrebet. Penrith opened at $1.44, but were backed into $1.36, with the handicap moving two full points. Some of the bigger bets for Penrith were $10,000 at $1.44 and $1.40, $20,000 at $1.38, and four separate $10,000 bets on the handicap of -8½. Only when Newcastle blew out did we see any decent money for them, but it was nowhere near enough. One saving grace was the game total, which saw two bets of $10,000 placed on under 44½ points at $1.90. When only 8 points had been scored up until half time, that looked pretty secure, but the final total of 40 points was perilously close to going over. Cronulla's season continues to go from bad to worse as they suffered an 18 point loss to Manly. The Sea Eagles started favourites at $1.50, and although two bets worth $18,000 were placed on them at -4½ points on Saturday, there was enough money around for Cronulla to save us. The 34-20 point win by St George Illawarra over Souths on Saturday night went our way when there was an avalanche of money for Souths with 8 points start. They had been well backed all week, then there was a bet of $20,000 came through just before the game started on that handicap, but at a reduced price of $1.82. One thing about Souths is that they never give up, and it wasn't until the dying minutes that the cash was safely in our keeping. The punters who took the 8½ start given to the Cowboys against Parramatta were always in the box seat, but the Sydney client who placed $18,000 on Parramatta to win at $1.44 is probably still in a state of shock, wondering how he won! For 70 minutes, North Queensland looked certain winners, but the Eels scratched their way back into it, kick a very dubious goal to win by two points. They continue to struggle, and all their recent wins could easliy have been losses. New Zealand kept Canberra scoreless in the second half to win 26-18 in Auckland on Sunday. Even though there was a $20,000 bet on the Warriors at $1.65, and a $10,000 bet at -3½, the Kiwis gave us a good result after Canberra had met with solid support. The Raiders opened at $2.30, before being backed into $2.10. In the other two Sunday games, money came for both fav's, the Roosters and the Bulldogs. Honours were divided amongst punters and bookies when the Tigers led all game to beat the Roosters 30-22, while the Bulldogs drew away at the finish to beat Melbourne 26-12. Last night's second State of Origin game was decidedly quieter early in the week than the first, but late yesterday, punters went into overdrive. New South Wales went in as favourites following on from their first victory. The $1.52 was taken by a couple of hefty $20,000 bets, as well as a bet of $15,000 early in the week for the Blues conceding 5½ points start. It was noticeable that the level of support from the 'banana State' had dropped right away after that game one loss, but we did see two bets of $4000 for Queensland to win at $2.60, and one late one of $28,000 (from Victoria) for the Maroons with 5½ points start. Betting on whether the game total would be under or over 38½ points was one sided after it began raining yesterday. Bets of $15,000 and $12,000 forced the price into $1.70, and even that was taken by a bet of $8800 just before the match started. At half time, when NSW led 17-0, we thought it might be a complete 'blowout', but the Queenslanders hung in grimly to score a try themselves, but also kept NSW to only 10 points in the second half. The series may well be decided, but as always there will still be interest in the third game, and these prices will be available Monday. The upcoming round is very tricky after State of Origin, and we will be looking for a set of results like two weeks ago following 'Origin One'. Unfortunately, one of the best games of the year will be played on Friday night when Brisbane host the Roosters, but from a betting perspective there hasn’t been too much interest yet due to the scheduling of the game. With so many players backing up, only a few hundred dollars was bet on this match before Wednesday night's game, but it should fire up on Friday. Brisbane are $1.85, and we think the Bronco's are a good risk at that quote. North Queensland were the first backed side this week when betting opened. Three $5000 bets went on the Cowboys to beat Cronulla by more than 5½ points ($1.90), but while the form of Cronulla has been anything but flattering, the Cowboys are one of those sides who always have trouble when allocated with the tag of 'favourites'. Newcastle look the winners against Parramatta, but with a lot of key players backing up, they might also be a small risk, particularly giving up 8 points start. Today we have taken three $2000 bets for the Knights at that handicap, as well as a bet of $6000 for them to win at $1.36. Originally we thought Souths were also capable of a surprise against New Zealand, and took nearly $20,000 for the Warriors conceding 7½ points in Sundays match at Aussie Stadium. Now that Souths captain Brian Fletcher looks in doubt, the landscape has changed somewhat, but there is still some doubt about the form of the Warriors this season. The other match on Sunday is shaping as the 'betting game' of the round. Apart from a loss two weeks ago, Penrith's form has been impeccable, and we think that that can continue and the Panthers will beat the Bulldogs. The first bet on this game was $6000 for Penrith at $1.90, with the Bulldogs now attracting support at $1.95, but as yet there are no big bets to report under the Bulldogs. ENTERTAINMENT Last week's double eviction on Australian Big Brother saw the biggest turnover ever on an eviction, and while it looked a mere formality that Kim would go, the eviction of Saxon caught punters by surprise. Two $5000 bets were placed on Kim at $1.20 and $1.10, but we got to hang on to a wager of the same amount for Vincent at $1.20. Some money was won on Saxon, who touched $4 at one stage, but all in all, it was a good result. This week, it's an all-male line up, where Jamie has been backed to the exclusion of both Vincent and Patrick. Jamie opened at $2, a price that saw a few bets come in, but the BB polls all pointed towards a 'Jamie eviction', so we cut the price. A $2000 bet came at $1.60, and another $2000 at $1.33, so now he is a $1.25 shot. Vincent attracted a few hundred dollars in bets as we 'eased' him out to $3, with Patrick, now out to $15, looking safe for at least another week. As for the overall winner, Chrissie is gaining some notoriety with smaller punters, and is now our worst result at $6, with Regina still the favourite at $1.50. GREYHOUND RACING We cover two greyhound races tonight (Thurs), with the 'Laurels' at Sandown Park, and the QLD Derby at Albion Park. Perth sprinter Dance Portrait is our $2.75 favourite to win the Laurels after having drawn the coveted rails box. Although disappointing on the clock last week, the red box is a huge advantage, and today we have seen close to $2000 at that price. Second favourite is now Star Light, who has been backed into $4.25 after $5 was available, but is going to need a lot of lick having drawn the outside. Another who will need some luck is Hecuba, who has been backed to take out over $3000 at $5. She comes from a very promising litter, but needs plenty of galloping room, and that is unlikely to happen from box three. There is one 'Bale' dog in the field, this one being Fiona Bale ($13), but she doesn't look up to it. In Brisbane, Victorian 'powerhouse' sprinter Where's Boz is $3 to win the Derby. The youngster has taken on every major race around the country in a short career, and recently won the Bulli Cup. He was responsible for an awesome display in winning his heat, but is very slow early and tends to use a lot of the track. With any luck, he is the one to beat, but from box three we have to take him on. Bets of $2000 and $1200 have come from Victoria at $3, and in a good betting race there is also money for Thousand Drums ($4), suitably drawn out in the eight box, and also Bigbad Romeo at $5. Our hopes will be pinned on another Victorian, Clockwork, an $8 chance. He is a quick dog, and although drawn in box five, he has the necessary pace to lead, and if that happens, he will be hard to beat. MOTOR RACING Half of the Formula One season is behind us, and for the first time Michael Schumacher has hit the lead in the driver’s championship after winning in Canada. Schumacher is $1.72 to win the European Grand Prix in Nurburgring this weekend. A few of our regular German clients have jumped in early and taken that price, but our ratings suggest that he might be a good risk. The German won this event in 2000 and 2001, but last year it was won by team-mate Rubens Barrichello. Recently, the Williams cars have improved vastly, with brother Ralf Schumacher drawn pole in the last two, and Montoya winning in Monaco, before that duo filled the placings behind Michael Schumacher in Canada. Punters have identified that as well, with Montoya ($8), Ralf Schumacher ($8) and Kimi Raikkonen ($9) all backed to take out over $10,000 early in the week. That same trio has also been backed to qualify quickest, while there has been a bet of $4000 placed on Montoya at $1.90 to qualify quicker than his Williams counterpart in the first qualifying session. Betting on the winner of both sessions and 'session head to heads' has really taken of with Centrebet as a betting medium, and the second session betting will be open first thing Saturday morning. TENNIS We were two rounds out in our prediction with Lleyton Hewitt. The defending Wimbledon champion faced a rocky path through the tournament, so we were prepared to 'risk' him to win the title again. As we said last week, there was money for Lleyton to win at $6, but most of that had come from outside Australia, and even in his first match against Ivo Karlovic, a few Aussies, including one with $500 at $9, were prepared to bet that the gigantic Croat could cause a major upset. Hewitt was $1.05 in that match, and he was coupled up in nearly every multiple bet, so the week got under way on a bad note for favourite backers. Karlovic has been catapulted from obscurity to stardom on the back of that win. We posted him at $51 to win the title after the first round, and a new Chinese client placed the equivalent of $3000 on him at $51. Several players have been backed to take out big amounts, including Mark Phillippoussis ($5 at $21), Andre Agassi ($20,000 at $5), Karol Kucera ($1000 at $81) and Roger Federer ($7000 at $6). What started out as a dull betting event has really fired up, and doesn’t look like stopping. Betting on the individual matches in both men’s and women’s is on track to break all our previous Wimbledon betting records, we just have to hope that each day another 'Ivo' comes out of the woodwork to give us a result! GOLF The Buick Classic proved to be a roller coaster ride for punters and bookies alike, with players of the calibre of Furyk, Woods and Els putting themselves in a winning position only to be unable to maintain the intensity. As mentioned last week, leading players have trouble 'getting themselves up' for this tournament, the week after the US Open, with a string of lower ranked players winning in recent years, and this tradition continued when Jonathan Kaye won his maiden tour title after five times being runner-up. Kaye defeated John Rollins on the first extra hole to join Ben Crane and Steve Flesch as first time winners on tour this year, and like Flesch it took a dramatic putt to clinch the title. This week we head to Memphis for the FedEx St Jude Classic, where defending champion Len Mattiace is $51, inform player David Toms $11, and two time winner Nick Price is $13. Best supported have been Notah Begay, $300 each way at $101, and Estoban Toledo, $200 each way at $151, in a tournament which lacks big name players and has the potential to produce another first time winner on tour. On the European tour we had another maiden winner when Soren Kneldsen became the fifth Danish player to be successful on the International schedule in winning the Diageo Championship at Gleneagles. He led from the second round onwards and was able to stave off a challenge from Alistair Forsyth, while Colin Montgomerie showed some form by finishing well for fourth. We go to France for this week’s event, the oldest on the European tour, the Open de France held at Le Golf National. Defending champion is Malcolm McKenzie, a maiden winner at his 509th attempt last year, but he will find it difficult to retain his title with inform players of the calibre of Rose, Immelman and US Open surprise packet Stephen Leaney in the field. Best backed have been Immelman, $1000 each way at $17, and Stephen Leaney, $500 each way at $26, along with Scotsman Andrew Coltart, $400 each way at $51. Other tours last week saw Rachel Teske win her second consecutive LPGA event at the Wegmans Rochester, and became the fifth player in LPGA history to do so, while Doug Tewell overcame a back ailment to win his seventh Champions Tour title, the Farmers Charity Classic, and become the sixteenth winner in sixteen events so far this year. Annika Sorenstam is once again a short priced favourite at $2.10 to defend her Shoprite LPGA Classic title in New Jersey while our main attention turns to Ohio for this year’s US Senior Open. The tournament has been robbed of some glamour with the withdrawal of Hale Irwin with back spasms but still leaves plenty of legends of the ilk of Tom Watson, Bruce Lietzke, Tom Kite and Jack Nicklaus to fight out this prestigious event. Defending champion Don Pooley is $51 to retain his title, while best backed have been Bobby Watkins, $300 each way at $51 and last weeks winner Doug Tewell, $500 each way at $34. RUGBY UNION Two International tests this week have France taking on the might of the All Blacks in Christchurch this Saturday evening, while Argentina will have a better perspective on how their World Cup campaign is progressing when they take on the Springboks in Port Elizabeth, also on Saturday night. The All Blacks are prohibitive odds of $1.08 in their game, and after a clinical dispensing of Wales, should have little trouble with France, who were disappointing in their two losses in Buenos Aires, while South Africa are $1.25 to handle the much improved Pumas. It's probable these tests will have little bearing on World Cup betting, but that was not the case last week when England steam rolled the Wallabies at Colonial Stadium in Melbourne. The might of the English pack was too much for Australia which was expected, but what was more impressive is that they showed an attacking flair missing in previous World Cup attempts. England have now shortened into $3.25, while the Wallabies have drifted to $4, and are quickly running out of time to find a combination equipped enough to defend their title. With recent wagers of $5000 on the All Blacks at $2.40 and £2000 on England at $3.25, it appears punters are finding it difficult to give any other nation a realistic chance. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com.
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