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Aussie
Rules
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Wimbledon Preview
Wimbledon, traditionally regarded as the blue riband event on the tennis calendar, begins in London next Monday and with the draw released overnight it’s an appropriate time to look at the Men’s event from a betting perspective.
Already the field has been littered with a spate of withdrawals, most notably Andre Agassi, the 1992 champion here, who appears to be nearing the end of an illustrious career. Gaston Gaudio, winner of that epic five-set final at Roland Garros last month, has also pulled out with a foot injury, while Nicolas Escude, Gustavo Kuerten and Rafael Nadal head the list of other absentees.
Let’s take a look at Sportsbook’s current market on the Men’s Singles and assess the form of the main chances:
Federer $2.20 Roddick $4.50 Henman $7.00 Hewitt $11.00 Nalbandian $23.00 Grosjean $29.00 Safin $34.00 Philippoussis $41.00
Federer, the defending champion, has already firmed from his opening quote and the way he steamrolled through last week’s leadup tournament in Germany without dropping a set suggests he is well and truly the man to beat. The “Fed Express” has attracted a bet of $7000 at $2.40, however Sportsbook’s tennis guru Warwick McAlpine believes he is a good risk, “Federer has a favourable draw and should cruise through the first few rounds, but doubts persist about his mental strength and at such a short price he is probably well avoided.”
The obvious danger appears to be Roddick, who was ultra impressive last week in winning Queens for the second consecutive year. Indeed, McAlpine asserts “Roddick is my pick for the tournament. Queens is normally a good pointer so the way he disposed of Hewitt and Grosjean there suggests that he is primed for Wimbledon. He is already into 4.5 from an opening quote of 7.0 so punters obviously think he is ready.”
The great white hope, Tim Henman, also has his share of admirers who believe he can finally crack it for that elusive Grand Slam title. Henman has been a model of consistency at Wimbledon in recent years, reaching the Semi Finals four times in the past seven years and never failing to get to at least the 4th round in that time.
“If anything, the fanatical nature of the support he receives has been more of a hindrance than a help to Tim in recent years, and we are more than happy to take him on at 6/1” claims McAlpine. “He will proceed through the first week comfortably but the weight of expectation of a success-deprived British public will once again suffocate his hopes at the business end of the tournament.”
Turning to the Aussies, and Lleyton Hewitt would be happy with his form leading into the event, however he has been handed a horror draw which includes a likely fourth round meeting with Federer should he advance that far. “As a former winner here Hewitt must be respected but he will need to summon up every ounce of the courage he is renowned for to make an impact here” was McAlpine’s assessment of his chances.
The same must also be said for the enigmatic Mark Philippoussis, a finalist here last year whose career seems to have hit an all time low. McAlpine reports, “Amazingly, Philippoussis has been one of the best backed players with us, even though he continues to blow in the betting and seems more interested in Delta than tennis these days. The “Poo” is a real confidence player but whether he can recapture last year’s magic remains to be seen.”
Of the other main hopes, Sebastien Grosjean made the Semis here last year and is not without hope at 28/1 while the newly focused Marat Safin is sure to have admirers at 33/1, especially after the way he dismantled several of the world’s top players in Melbourne in January. Paradorn Srichaphan, who beat Agassi here a few years back when he was in his prime, has attracted a bet of $500 at 70/1 so somebody out there obviously thinks he has what it takes.
For the first time, Sportsbook will be offering each-way betting on the Mens event at Wimbledon. This novel form of betting allows punters to bet on whether a player will reach the semi finals, and pays ¼ of the odds offered to win the event. For instance, Greg Rusedski is 80/1 for the tournament so he can be backed at 20/1 to make the Semis.
As a result, scouring further down the market to locate players who may overachieve would certainly appear a worthwhile exercise. Here, McAlpine has singled out two players who represent great each-way value; firstly, Mario Ancic, a grass court specialist who boasts a previous win over Federer at Wimbledon, looks overpriced at 60/1, “Ancic plays David Nalbandian in the first round and on previous form would have to fancy his chances. If he can get through this then the draw opens right up for him.”
Similarly, the ice cool Swede Jonas Bjorkman is also capable of staying alive into the second week and is worth specking at a tasty 125/1 (30/1 to place). Bjorkman, one of the few natural serve volleyers left on the tour, has performed well here in the past and landed squarely in the weakest part of the draw with a host of clay courters.
Sportsbook will be covering all the first round matches starting Monday
Stewart Croker Senior Sports Analyst Australian Sportsbook
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