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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
RUGBY LEAGUE Turn the clock back to round three of the NRL, and throw in the fact that Braith Anasta may not play, and it is hard to work out how the Bulldogs are going to beat the Roosters in this Friday night's clash. On that occasion, the Roosters won 35-0, and they go into this match at full strength, while the Bulldogs' recent form has been patchy and they may be without Anasta. When the betting opened early in the week we did manage to get a few hundred dollars out of the Bulldogs to win at $2.50, but now at a bigger quote of $2.65, they are proving hard to sell. The Roosters though look like they are going to be easy to lay as today (Thurs) we have already seen close to $7000 come for them conceding 6½ points start, so they look certain to start shorter. The other thing in favour of the Roosters is that the Bulldogs played a 'gut buster' last Sunday, and the 'short week' will be of no help to them at all. Wests Tigers landed a solid plunge last week when easy 33-6 victors over a hapless Parramatta. On that occasion, it was possibly more of betting that Parramatta wouldn't win, rather than Wests would, or at least that is how betting on the Eels matches go each week! Anyway, this week, the Tigers face a daunting task when they travel to Olympic Park to take on Melbourne Storm. The Storm have Matt Orford in doubt, but are one of the powerhouses of the competition and are rarely defeated at home. They are $1.43 to win, and we have already seen a significant amount of money bet for Melbourne to beat a 6½ point handicap, and that price is now into $1.85 from $1.90. All is not well in 'Warriorland', but to be fair, they aren't the only club in a similar situation. It is hard to believe however how badly the wheels have fallen off, and as we have reported all season, even our Kiwi clients haven't been betting on the Warriors this year. They have played accordingly, and their performances against Manly and the Roosters make it hard to push a case for them against Canberra this week, even at home. Canberra had a big 26 point win over Manly last week, so does that mean when you line up these two sides this week that the margin will be a 50 point win for the Raiders? If it was that easy, we wouldn't be here, but the Raiders deserve to be favourites at $1.70. Earlier in the season, they would have been rank outsiders in Auckland, so the recent form has a big bearing on price. Penrith recorded one of their best wins when 40-29 winners over the Bulldogs last week, but face a tricky match at Brookvale on Sunday. Last week, Craig Gower was a withdrawal after the State of Origin match, which saw both sides quoted at $1.90. The bulk of money was placed on the Bulldogs, including bets of $20,000 and $13,000, and when they led 25-18 at half time, and with Penrith having Ryan Girdler off the field through injury, it looked a matter of 'how far' for the Bulldogs. In a really spirited second half, the lead changed a few times before Penrith kicked away to win. That was a tough game, and although Manly were beaten in Canberra, this is at Brookvale. With that in mind, we are keen to get something out of Penrith, but up until Thursday morning, less than $5000 had been placed on the Panthers at $1.47. The Roosters are $2.75 to win the title, but a big win this week on top of recent form will see that price evaporate quickly. Penrith are on the second line of betting at $5.25, and there is practically no interest in any of the others. The second Origin match prices will be available on Monday at 10am after the sides are announced. RUGBY June sees the beginning of numerous International fixtures, the most notable being the All Blacks and England in Dunedin an Saturday June 12th and culminating with the Sprinboks and Wallabies in Durban on August 21st. Centrebet will offer complete coverage of all tests involving Six and Tri nation countries during this time. On a lighter note, Centrebets resident Rugby buff and call centre operator Marli Banks is still over the moon with the Brumbies memorable victory in Canberra less than a fortnight ago. It appears the Brumbies were not the only ones riding on adrenalin during what has been described as the best Super 12 final ever. CRICKET We find ourselves entertaining punters from three different continents on the second cricket Test between England and New Zealand which gets underway today (Thurs) at Headingley. Our Indian cricket clients were first in snapping up the $2.35 and $2.30 for the draw. Bets of $USD 25,000 and $USD 10,000 were taken at $2.35, and similar amounts came in at the shorter price. Those bets came at the beginning of the week, and now that the weather pattern has become clearer, and that there is unlikely to be too many intervals due to inclement weather (we hope!), punters from New Zealand and England have taken a liking to their own sides. The $2.75 for England was quickly grabbed by a couple of our larger English cricketing enthusiasts, while we have had no trouble finding any takers from New Zealand for their side at $4. There are several different bet types open on this Test, including how many runs each side will score in the first innings, head to head match-ups, and also player performance markets for batsmen. The match will be updated at the end of each session provided we get coverage in Alice Springs. GOLF David Toms capped off a remarkable comeback from injury to capture a consecutive FedEx St Jude Classic with a comprehensive six shot victory over Bob Estes. Toms was sent out second pick at $17 in a tournament void of big names, a price which should have been attractive for a defending champion given the quality of the field, however having missed five of the previous seven cuts was more than a little off putting even for the most ardent Toms fan. Stewart Cink was sent out favourite at $13 along with other notables, John Daly and Kirk Triplett both at $17, while best backed was Frederik Jacobson at $26 who carried one wager of 5,000 SEC from one of our Scandinavian clients. Jacobson shot himself in the foot with a poor opening round of 75 and while he recovered well to finish in a tie for fifth he was never a real winning chance, while Toms and Cink with opening rounds of 67 and 68 respectively took control of the tournament. Toms, showing his love for TPC at Southwind, then followed up with an eight under par 63 second round to grab the event by the throat. He took a seven shot lead into the final round and in windy conditions managed to hold off Bob Estes to record a six shot victory, the most dominant win of the season along with Chad Campbells' six shot victory at Bay Hill. The win was a victory for Toms' determination to make it back, but also for the adage 'horses for courses', as his form gave little indication of what he produced this week. We head to Muirfield Village in Ohio this week for the Memorial Tournament where perhaps another defending champion in Kenny Perry can turn his season around with a much needed victory. The tournament features nine of the worlds top twelve ranked players including Tiger Woods ($5), Ernie Els ($8) and Vijay Singh ($8.50) with a gap in the betting to Davis Love ($21). A win to Perry ($26) will be no easy task as Woods ('99,'00,'01) and Singh ('97) have both been successful here while Els, backed to win over $100,00, has been in solid form. Also in good form and backed to win a similar amount as Els is Irishman Padraig Harrington ($26), fresh from an enthralling duel with Trevor Immelman when runner-up at the Deutsche Bank SAP Open a fortnight ago. Also in contention is Sergio Garcia ($23), Retief Goosen and Chad Campbell (both $26) and consistent Stewart Cink ($31) all with claims in a top class event. Last week Scotland's Scott Drummond won his maiden European Tour event when he captured the Volvo PGA Championship on his debut in the event. It was a fairytale result for a man who had only just recently become a father for the first time and had never finished in the top ten in any European Tour event previously. A week before the event he didn't even have a start, that was until Greg Owen withdrew with an injury and was completed with a final round eight under par 64 which sealed the victory. Plunge players Ernie Els ($5.50) and Darren Clarke ($13) were both in winning positions coming to the final round however both failed to find the spark needed to capture the title. Angel Cabrera and Joakim Haeggman, both with four rounds under par, were unable to hold out the Drummond juggernaut and finished two and three shots adrift in second and third spot but in doing so entered the world's top 50 to earn exemptions to the US Open later this month. This week we head to Wales for the fifth Celtic Manor Resort Wales Open with Paul Casey favourite at $11 ahead of defending champion Ian Poulter at $13. The field may lack some big names but there are plenty of golfers in fine form including Joakim Haeggman, $15, Phillip Price, $21 and David Howell, $23, while best backed has been Graeme McDowell, $51 into $41. Throw in past winners here in Paul McGinley and Paul Lawrie and the event is sure to have some fireworks with perhaps another surprise winner aka Scott Drummond emerging. ENTERTAINMENT There was a major upset on Australian Big Brother when Krystal was evicted on Sunday night. Of the four facing eviction, Krystal was a $17 chance, and while several small punters predicted her demise, it was Terri and Paul who attracted most of the money. The obnoxious Paul drifted from $1.70 out to $2, but did draw most of the bets, including one of $1500, while Terri met with similar support, eventually starting at $2. Both are up again this week, and will be joined by Elle. This will be an interesting tussle, and a good test case for a couple of our theories. Paul has obviously upset the whole household, but that doesn't alter the fact that the female voting public normally have it 'in' for the women, and Krystal was a good example of that. With that in mind, we priced up Terri at $1.80 ahead of Paul at $3.25 and Elle at $4, but Paul has been backed into $1.70 fav with Terri out to $2.40. The online polls suggest Paul will go, so we will sit back and see if our theory is on the money. In the overall betting, Ryan and Trevor are co $2.50 favourites, and it does look a race in two, even this far out. ELECTIONS We're still seeing money roll in for the next Australian Federal election even though nobody knows when it will be held. Last week we reported some solid money coming for Labor on the back of some positive press and a perception that the position in Iraq was not being well received by the Australian public. That saw a bet of $5000 come from a Canberra based punter at $2.10, so we trimmed the price to $2. Plenty of bets were placed, including a bet of $3000 (also from the ACT), but the landscape has changed yet again following the release of another poll on Monday of this week claiming if an election was held now, the Coalition would win easily. That has sparked a wave of support for the John Howard led Coalition. We left the price at $1.70 after that poll because we are not entirely convinced that they are a true reflection of how things really stand, but punters were impressed by it as we have taken dozens of bets at that quote, including one of $8000 from Victoria. The way things are going, it would suit us fine if they release a poll every two weeks, alternating which party is ahead. It makes it a good betting contest! MOTOR BIKES This week, the bikes head to Mugello, situated in the Tuscan Hills in Italy, for the Italian MotoGP. For the first time in an eternity, Valentino Rossi will not be favourite, and this is on his home track! That honour goes to Sete Gibernau who has strung together back to back wins in France and Spain. We have priced up Gibernau at $2.65 ahead of Rossi at $2.85, with Max Biaggi the other rider in the betting at $3.75. Rossi won this event last year after a thrilling battle with his Italian rivals Biaggi and Loris Capirossi. It has become obvious after winning the first race of the season that Rossi's move to Yamaha hasn't put wings on the bike, and he has to work much harder in each race. Gibernau on the other hand, is now the number one Honda rider, and if he can win in Italy, we might well have a new champion this year. FORMULA ONE If the MotoGP looks like it will have a new champion, Formula 1 is the opposite. After his hiccup in Monaco, Michael Schumacher was back to his brilliant best on his home track in the European Grand Prix. qualifying over half a second faster than anyone else, Schumacher's pole position meant that he was more than likely going to record his sixth win from seven seasons starts, and that is exactly what he did. The betting reflected that, with Schumacher starting a red hot fav at $1.35, with the largest bet taken being 4000 Euro's from an Italian client. Rubens Barrichello made it a perfect result for Ferrari when he came home in second place, although he was a staggering 18 seconds in arrears of his team-mate. What ever happened in Monaco? The news doesn't get any better for other drivers as the circuit now moves again, with the next two races in Canada and the United States. Schumacher won both of these races last year, and in fact has won the last six Canadian Grand Prix's, so he looks certain to build on his 14 point lead at the top of the Driver's Championship board. SOCCER There are two reasons why Euro 2004 cannot come quick enough for our punters. First, they have fond memories of the tremendous tournament that Belgium and the Netherlands hosted four years ago in which France proved that their World Cup triumph was not a fluke. Second, they have had a gutful of betting on international friendlies as Europe's top 16 teams prepare for the main event. Which brings us back to Belgium and the Netherlands. Our clients thought that would be only one winner when the neighbours met in Eindhoven on Saturday and who could blame them? The Dutch had not lost a non-competitive fixture for a few days short of five years and kept clean sheets in their previous four games. The Euro 2004 qualifier looked like a good thing against its local rival. Belgium, however, did not read the script and won 1-0 courtesy of Bart Goor's second-half spot kick. Denmark's 2-2 draw versus Estonia was another disastrous outcome for our punters who could have! done without Joel Lindpere's injury-time equaliser. Sweden's 3-1 defeat of Finland in which Marcus Allback scored twice for the Euro 2004 hopeful was a rare positive for our clients. Euro 2004 kicks off on June 12 and we are not paying too much attention to France's World Cup debacle when it failed to score a goal, a result on which we offered $67.00. Zinedine Zidane injured himself during an international friendly just prior to the Far East competition but Zizou is fully fit to lead Les Blues in Portugal. Jacques Santini's side has a favourite's chance of title glory. We are open for business on next season's English Premier League after Crystal Palace defied its underdog status to win the Division One play-off final. The Eagles are short odds to be relegated from the top flight in May 2005 because only five of the previous 12 Division One play-off kings avoided the drop in their first year among the big boys. Arsenal are our championship favourites ahead of Chelsea and! Manchester United. We do not rate the title prospects of the other clubs.
Until next week, good punting. For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or
centrebet@centrebet.com.
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