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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES The Sydney Swans lifted a lot of pressure of us on Sunday when they completely overwhelmed the previously unbeaten St Kilda to win by six goals. The liability on St Kilda going though the season undefeated had climbed up to a very high six figure amount, and punters were taking $8 going into the Swans game. History shows that such a rare feat is near on impossible, and right from the first bounce it was obvious that the Swans brains trust had put in place a game plan to keep the ball off St Kilda, and they reaped the rewards. It was definitely a round the bookies won't forget in a hurry with three short priced favourites, St Kilda, Adelaide, and Fremantle, all going down. All seven 'shorties' were coupled up in over $200,000 worth of bets, with the biggest one being $50,000 for Essendon (-44½) and Adelaide (-41½) at a dividend of $3.61. We were desperate for one of the heavy fav's to go over, but didn't really think that it would be Adelaide, who were beaten by four points by Carlton. The Crows have a good run for the rest of the season with eight games at home, but that loss to Carlton has probably snuffed out the faint glimmer of hope that they had. Any multiple bets that were 'alive' after Adelaide were beaten were laid to rest when Sydney defeated St Kilda. Having said that though, in a bizarre betting game, the Swans landed a late betting plunge. After being available at $4.50 early in the week, Swans fans were taking $3.50 at kick-off, with the largest single wager being $8000 at $4.25. The handicap moved in five points, with bets of $15,000 taken at 28½ and 26½ points start, and another of $9000 at 25½ points start. A client from Sydney offset most of that with a wager of $30,000 on St Kilda conceding the start, but the result from the match was a long way short of being a huge result. There was a late rally for Hawthorn with the big start against Essendon, but the poor old Hawks confirmed why they are $1.65 to win the wooden spoon with an embarrassing 74 point loss. A Victorian client placed $25,000 on Hawthorn with 45 points start, and he would probably sooner forget Saturday as he then chimed in with a total of $35,000 on Richmond at various odds to beat the Kangaroos. The Tigers led by a point at half time, but capitulated in the second half to be beaten by 74 points. Fremantle's form has been a worry this year, and with rain on the radar, we thought it was a good opportunity to get something out of them against Melbourne in the late game on Sunday. The 'mail' that rain was due was an understatement as the conditions in the last quarter, which saw Fremantle fail to score, were nothing short of atrocious. Although wet weather football is a thing of the past, Melbourne handled the conditions to win by a staggering 29 points. One bet of $20,000 was placed on Fremantle at $1.40, and we also took a series of $5000 bets for them conceding 18.5 points start, but even before the downpour came, that was unlikely. This weeks early betting has been placed in disarray with several players having to front the tribunal, and also several key players suffering with injuries. We left three games close (Carlton v Hawks, Ess v Brisb and Coll v Melbourne) until things became clearer. Hawks fans face a tough time with three seniors players Richie Vandenberg (six weeks), Lance Picioane (four weeks) and Campbell Brown (four weeks) suspended for long stretches in the wash up to last weekends wild melee in which 16 players were charged with varying offences. Things get even worse with captain Shane Crawford, Kris Barlow, Sam Mitchell, Mark Graham and Luke McCabe all on the injured list reducing their playing roster to less than 30 fit players. We now have the unbelievable situation where Carlton, wooden spoon favourites last week, are raging $1.30 favourites to beat the Hawks, and it's being taken! The Blues have attracted one bet alone of $15,000 to win at that quote, and have been heavily anchored up through the multiples. Punters are predicting that the Bulldogs will get another hiding at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. St Kilda are $1.12 to win, and early in the week three bets totalling $8000 were placed on the Saints conceding 40 points start. Later that same day, Essendon will play Brisbane at Telstra Dome, and there has been early support for the Bombers at $2.15 to beat Brisbane. All we can say is good luck! The Lions are on track to make it four premierships in a row. Port Adelaide must be a risk against Sydney on Sunday. Sydney were so impressive against St Kilda, and are proven travellers, that the $1.50 for Port seems well under the odds. Port have been hard to sell in early trading, and we will be forced to chase the price out as Swans fans have plenty of money to splurge after last weekend. Another upset is on the cards on Sunday when Fremantle go to Melbourne to play Richmond. Now the Tigers have had a year they would rather forget, but this is their chance to redeem themselves with fans. Fremantle, ($1.85) suffer from 'Boeing Syndrome', as it seems every time they get on a plane they play 10 goals worse than they should. The other negative for the Dockers is that having played in the heavy going last Sunday may have sapped energy from them, so our aim is to try and lay Fremantle. Brisbane have resumed their place at the top of premiership betting at $2.75 ahead of St Kilda at $2.90. Essendon are next in line at $7, with a bet of $3000 coming for them last week at $8. This week we have taken lots of small bets for Collingwood at $26, and that was on top of nearly $1500 which came for the Magpies last week at $41, but they have a tough draw in the run home. In Brownlow news, Mark Riccuito, one of three winners from last year, has joined James Hird at the top of betting at $6. The other big mover has been Melbourne ruckman Jeff White, now into $13 after another fine performance against Fremantle. RUGBY LEAGUE Rugby league punters were left battered and bruised after last weeks results. Only one favourite, Melbourne Storm, was able to win, but that wasn't a big help to many as the bulk of the money bet on that game was on the Storm conceding 6½ points start, and thanks to a last minute try to Wests and a subsequent conversion, the winning margin ended on 6 points. How can you follow the form? In round three the Roosters belted the Bulldogs 35-0, then the Bulldogs come out and thrash the Roosters 40-12 last Friday night. The Bulldogs blew like the north wind in the betting, moving from an opening $2.50 out to $2.75, and there was no interest at all in them. We mentioned the Storm game. That try to the Tigers was well received by us as there were three separate bets of $10,000 placed on Melbourne Storm at -6½, and following on from St George's late try to get inside the handicap against Brisbane the previous week, the pendulum of late tries is finally swinging in favour of the bookies! The amazing record of teams who sack their coaches and then win was discussed before last weekends Warriors v Canberra game, and true to form, the Warriors, who parted company with coach Daniel Anderson on Thursday, came out and played inspiring football to beat Canberra 20-14. Why there wasn't any nation-wide plunge, there was plenty of money around to say the Warriors could win, including two bets of $15,000, one to win at $2.20, the other with 2½ points start. ENTERTAINMENT The upsets weren't only confined to AFL and NRL at the weekend when Elle, rank outsider at $9, was evicted from Big Brother. The polls said Paul would go, the money said Paul would go, but he is still there! He was backed from $3.25 into $1.60 to be evicted, with the largest bet being $1500 at $1.80. The polls later in the week had Paul a mile in front, but all of this only goes to reinforce what we have said before, the people voting on the polls are only a small cross section of the voting public, and unless the male acts like an axe murderer, it is very difficult for them to be evicted before a female. This week a big field of five is up for eviction. Merlin was posted favourite at $2.25, and early betting saw him cut to $1.60, so he will have to weave some magic to avoid the chop this week. In an amazing turnaround from the past two weeks, punters have neglected both Paul and Terri (each $5.50), but there has been interest shown in Bree ($13) and Catherine ($13). In the outright book, one punter placed a total of $4000 on Ryan last week at $2.50, and came back this week with another $1000 at $2.75. Trevor is looking good as a possible finalist, and we are keeping him safe at $3, ahead of Wesley, now into $5. Last week we took a bet of $1000 for Wesley at $8, and he continues to shorten as he fails to gain nominations. Of the females that are left, Catherine, now $8, is the only one who has attracted any serious betting, which is in contrast to the betting on her to be evicted this week. It won't be a promoter's dream if all the girls are evicted leaving a house full of males, perhaps they need a rule change? FORMULA ONE Michael Schumacher will be attempting to become the first Grand Prix driver to win the same event seven times when he lines up in Canada at the weekend. The German captured his sixth race around Gilles Villeneuve Circuit last year despite brake trouble, and comes into this event on the back of an emphatic win in the European Grand Prix. The Canadian circuit is interesting in that it is 'half street, half race track', and is another suited to leaders, and if Schumacher draws the front row he will be much shorter than the $1.45 currently on offer. To date, the betting has been quiet apart from some 'podium placing' bets on Rubens Barrichello ($1.65) and Takuma Sato ($5.50) who has been going well in qualifying sessions. MOTOR BIKES Valentino Rossi proved just what a great rider he is in winning his home GP in Mugello last weekend. Sete Gibernau set the time standards and went in $1.90 favourite in the biggest betting MotoGP of the season so far. Many of the bigger bets for Gibernau came from Australian bike enthusiasts, including one of $4000. Rossi had been well supported before qualifying at $3, and one of those clients (from Italy) who had backed him to win $10,000 on Thursday, came back after the second session with another bet of $4000 at $3.50. In a thrilling race which was raced in two parts, Rossi held off a late challenge from Gibernau, and others, to win. This week, the action moves to Spain. Gibernau is favourite again to win his 'home' Grand Prix at $2, ahead of Rossi at $2.75 and Max Biaggi at $5. CRICKET England won the second Test at Headingley to give them the series against New Zealand, and this will go down as one of the biggest betting Tests we have done where we didn't have any coverage. Last week we made mention of some of the early bets we took on the draw, led up be bets of $USD25,000 and $USD20,000 at $2.35 and $2.30 respectively. As the start of the match drew closer on Thursday, the weather took a turn for the worse in Leeds. We took a deluge of bets for the draw before a deluge of rain practically wiped out most of the first day's play. The last bet taken was $30,000 at $2, and at the end of the day's play, the draw was a $1.40 chance, at which price another bet of $25,000 came from the Sub-Continent. It was then a matter of sitting back and hoping that one of the two sides would assert their authority, and it was England who bundled out five Kiwis at the end of the fourth day, which meant that all they had to do was dismiss the final five cheaply to get an unexpected win. Having plenty of leeway as a result of the big money for the draw, we posted England at $1.35 after the fourth day, taking bets of $60,000 (from India), $40,000 from an Australian, and £10,000 from England, in amongst several smaller bets from punters who thought it was easy money. They were proven right when the English bowlers quickly wrapped up the New Zealand tail, only leaving a run chase of 45 runs, which they got for the loss of only one wicket. The third and final Test begins at Trent Bridge today (Thurs), and in keeping with the first two matches, there has been an avalanche of money for the draw. The opening quote of $2.15 was snapped up with close to $60,000 worth of bets coming from India, and that was followed up by a similar amount at $2.05. We have taken some bets for England, including one of £3000 at $2.50, while the Kiwi's are friendless at $5.50. We have bet on enough of these series to know that 'dead rubbers' are more often than not won by the team who has lost the series, so we are happy to stick with the New Zealander's. TENNIS The 2004 French Open will go down as a memorable event for bookies as both the men's and women's draw provided one upset after another, and that continued right though until the men's final. Unseeded Gaston Gaudio had been written off by all when trailing Guillermo Coria 2-0 in the final, but Coria got a bad case of cramp, and that saw Gaudio, an $81 chance before the tournament started, grab the winners' trophy. Gaudio went into the final as a $3.30 underdog, and while there was money for him, the heavy bettors stuck with the favourite. We did take a bet of $3000 for Gaudio to win in straight sets ($13), with the same punter also backing 3-1 for the same amount at $7.50, but he left the 3-2 result alone! Coria had been favourite at around the $1.45 from the time Roger Federer bombed out of the event, and went into the final at $1.28. There was money across all the options that we had for Coria, and the win by Gaudio was one of the biggest we have ever had on a tennis match. Coria was also the first leg of a $15,000 treble placed by a Sydney client. He coupled up Coria with France to win Euro 2004, rounding it off with Federer to win Wimbledon, a payout of $315,000, so the pressure is off there! The women's final was won by Anastasia Myskina, who was also at $81 before the tournament started. Women's tennis is very hard to win on as the favourites are usually very short, and normally win, but that statistic was blown away when all four long odds on favourites were beaten in the quarter finals. Myskina went into the final at $1.52 with Elena Dementieva at $2.50, and while this duo couldn't be classified as 'big names' in women's tennis, it was still a good betting match, with action split between the pair. Wimbledon is fast approaching, and there has already been two early casualties in the women's section with Justine Henin-Hardenne and Kim Clijsters withdrawing. Betting to win the women's will not be available until the draw is done, mainly due to the fact that so many are under injury clouds. The men's final is open, and Federer is the favourite at $2.50, ahead of Andy Roddick ($5) and Tim Henman ($6.50), who has already been backed to win close to $30,000. Betting is also available on the lead-up tournaments this week. GREYHOUND RACING This week we are covering three greyhound races, with two of those, the Gold Cup at Albion Park, and the Provincial Cup at Dapto being held tonight. In Brisbane, champion stayer Irinka Barbie will go around as a warm $1.65 chance to win the Gold Cup. Irinka Barbie has had a reputation for only 'firing at Wentworth Park, but she put up a terrific performance to win her heat narrowly. With the aid of that run on the track, and a penchant for inside boxes, we expect her to jump straight to the front and that will be the end of it. Victorian Toss O'Reilly was backed to win $10,000 early in the week at $8, while local stayer Fools Fiasco has also met with support at $13. If there is to be an upset, it might come from another Victorian in Springvale Jinx ($5), drawn suitably out in eight. At Dapto, quickest qualifier Foreign Legion ($2.60) has been the one punters have come for, but he faces a tough assignment from box four. Dapto is a very tight track, and most races are decided on the first turn. Second pick, Fancy Candy ($2.75) looks hard to beat, but can be hit or miss at box rise, while November Victory ($4.25) is the one boxed to win out in box eight. Queenslander Surf Florian has been described as the next Brett Lee, and while that is debatable, he does look to have a mortgage on the Peter Mosman Classic at Wentworth Park on Saturday night. The only niggling doubt is box four, and for that reason alone we have to get something out of him at the $1.50. The dog has had huge media attention in Queensland since some very high offers had been knocked back, and that probably explains why we have taken a few bets from that State from clients who have never had a bet on the greyhounds before. Trying to find one to beat the favourite is hard because only interference will bring about Surf Florian's defeat, and then it becomes a raffle. On Saturday night we will also cover the Wangaratta Cup in North East Victoria. Mr Starbuck set the track alight in his heat recording 26.47, but he will not be the favourite. That honour goes to Regal Ricky, now $2.50 after drawing box eight. Just a reminder also the apart from Friday's and Sunday's, Centrebet offers a full price service on horse races around the country. SOCCER Euro 2004 kicks off on Saturday and our punters are telling us that one of three countries will win the tournament. Defending champion France is the most popular team with our clients who do not seem to care that Les Bleus crashed out of the World Cup two years ago without scoring a goal. The title holder is less reliant upon Real Madrid midfielder Zinedine Zidane than it was at the European Championship in Belgium and the Netherlands and, therefore, should be more difficult to defeat. Italy ($5.75) and Spain ($7) are the tournament tips of our punters who believe that France is not guaranteed to retain the trophy. The Azzurri owe their position as second favourites to two factors: an excellent draw and their Euro 2000 silver medals. Our Bulgarian, Danish and Swedish clients may not enjoy hearing it but there is little doubt that Group C is the weakest of the four pools. Italy should have few problems qualifying for the quarter-finals, which is more than Group D sides Czech Republic, Germany, Latvia and the Netherlands can say at this time. Yes, the D in Group D stands for death. Spain's squad is of a comparable standard to that of France but, as English coaching legend Brian Clough is fond of saying, soccer is not played on paper so question marks hang over the perennial underachiever. Our punters are giving the benefit of any doubt that exists to Inaki Saez's team and that makes sense given that the Spanish Primera Division is Europe's strongest domestic league. In the first matches two bets of $25 000 have forced Spain’s price into $1.62 from $1.65 against Russia. We are trading hundreds of exotic markets and, as ever, our line on the top goal scorer is receiving attention. You could make a case for any one of the market leaders but the one man that everyone thinks will mount a Golden Boot challenge is France and Arsenal star Thierry Henry. There is some smart cash for Champions League top scorer Fernando Morientes who plays for Spain and Monaco. The opening game is between Greece and Portugal and 99 percent of the early money is for World Cup-winning boss Luis Felipe Scolari's host nation. Previous results of major events support the argument that home advantage is a huge positive for the former Brazil coach's side. History says that Portugal will be unlucky not to reach the last four with the vociferous backing of a country. Our clients cannot wait for the first whistle and neither can we. “Live Betting” will be conducted on all televised matches in Australia, with punters also able to bet on some “Second half exotics” at half time.
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