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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES For the second week in a row, St Kilda dealt a knockout blow to punters when beaten by the Western Bulldogs. The shock loss by the $1.12 fav's was the only hiccup for bettors on a weekend when the other seven favourites all salute, but it was a round where there was money about for most of the outsiders. The Carlton v Hawthorn clash ended up as a terrific betting game, mainly thanks to some publicity given to Hawthorn on Thursday night. Up until that stage, Carlton had firmed into $1.28 on the back of some heavy betting through the multiples, as well as a win bet of $15,000. Ex Hawthorn hardman, and now club director, Dermott Brereton appeared on the 'Footy Show' talking about his club, saying that they were stung by recent criticism and performance, and that they would lift their game the next night. Punters were impressed, as the Hawks were backed from $3.75 into $3.15, the largest bet being $15,000 at $3.40, as well as $10,000 with four goals start. After a poor start, the Hawks got back into the match during the third quarter, but although the lead changed several times during the second half, they suffered another defeat by 12 points after being in the game until the last few minutes. Saturday saw punters plonk heavily on St KIlda, through multiples and also to beat a 41 point handicap. Those who take short odds to win in a 'singles' bet are hard to find these days, and we probably lost another one on Saturday who placed $20,000 at $1.12 before the match started. We also took numerous handicap bets, including one of $25,000 conceding 40½ points. Betting at the first break saw St Kilda backed with a bet of $20,000 at $1.05, and even when they led by 15 points at half time, we were all expecting them to put it all together and flog the Bulldogs. That didn't eventuate, and when the Bulldogs held a 10 point break at three quarter time, St Kilda were still favourites at $1.70 , but we did manage to get about $6000 for the Bulldogs at $2, and I might add were more than happy to pay those punters. Brisbane confirmed why they are now firm $2.25 premiership favourites with a resounding 11 goal thumping of Essendon at Telstra Dome on Saturday night. In a good betting match, Brisbane went in as fav's at $1.67, and the late money, including one bet of $12,000, was for the Lions. The same night, bad weather in Perth saw the price for Adelaide cut from $3.20 into $2.75, but they weren't up to the task, going down by 32 points to the Eagles. The loss of Leo Barry and Michael O'Loughlin for the Swans saw a nation wide splurge on Port Adelaide to beat them, and didn't they do a good job of doing just that! Port came in from $1.50 to $1.40, and we were anchored down as well by two bets totalling $36,000 for them at -20½ points start. The Swans were out of the game shortly after the first bounce, and were beaten by 72 points. The 'rumour mill' had Matthew Richardson out of the Richmond side to play Fremantle on Sunday, and while we despise being left on the Dockers when they play away from home, this was their opportunity to win one, and we chased Richmond out to $2.05. On Sunday, one of the first bets of the day was $30,000 for the Tigers at $2.05, then punters were taking the $2. It began raining, Richardson was named in the side, so things weren't looking good. To cap it off, Fremantle, with the aid of a breeze, failed to score in the first quarter, with Richmond kicking away in the second quarter to lead by 26 points, and looking 'home'. Having been burnt on Richmond before, we couldn't find any takers at the half time quote of $1.20, but there was one Freo fan who had $2000 on the Dockers at $3.80. It wasn't until the last quarter arrived, and kicking into the wind, that Fremantle hit the front to go on and win by 10 points. The poor Melbourne weather got worse on Monday, and that created a wave of money for Collingwood, but like Richmond, they faltered when appearing as though they had a win in their keeping. With Anthony Rocca out, Collingwood blew out to $3.25, but predictions of rain saw the 20 points start they were receiving disappear (two bets of $10,000), then the win price as well, with bets of $5000 and $10,000 taken at that quote. Again, it was shades of the Richmond game as punters were apprehensive to back Collingwood at each break, even though they held a three goal lead at the last two changes. Melbourne dug deep for the second week in a row to record a terrific nine point victory. St Kilda are $1.11 to get their season back on track on Friday night against Hawthorn. The Saints are back indoors, and that has seen punters prepared to put them in all the weekend multi's, as well two early bets of $5000 at -42½ points start. Geelong continue to play well, but they will need to lift a few notches if they are to get over the top of Brisbane on Saturday. We put up an enticing $3.10 for the Cats, knowing that Brisbane punters bet late, but as yet we can't find any takers. Richmond v Carlton should be an interesting battle, and we are giving the Tigers one last chance (for what seems like the one hundredth time!) to come away with a win. The game is indoors, and they did show enough in the first three quarters against Freo to warrant another chance. Adelaide's final's aspirations are all but gone, and with a few injury concerns, their match against the Bulldogs is far from a mere formality. We posted the Crows at $1.60, but could only find two early shoppers who invested just over $5000 between them on the Crows. The announcement of Nigel Smarts retirement has had an impact, and the crows are now into $1.55. As far as the premiership goes, we have taken the knife to Brisbane's price, and they are now into $2.25. The Lions have a great run home, and with St Kilda's little slump, it is now possible that Brisbane could grab top spot at the end of the season. In the Brownlow Medal, Paul Hasleby has joined Mark Ricciuto and Nigel Lappin at the top of betting at $7. Last weekend saw most of the major chances play well, including Melbourne's Jeff White who last week attracted a bet of $1000 each way at $15. The Coleman Medal is closed for this week until more news app ears about Fraser Gehrig's injured foot. BASKETBALL With Wednesday's 100-87 win over LA, Detroit completed consecutive Championship victories over Los Angeles. Yes that's right. I'm not forgetting that San Antonio won the 2003 NBA Championship but since then the Detroit Shock defeated the Los Angeles Sparks to take the WNBA crown. So Detroit have reigned over LA for consecutive titles. As the Pistons took control of this series the Shock seemed to be motivated by their success and overcame a slow start to their season to string together four victories and return to the top of the East. The only Shock player not cheering for the Pistons was Cheryl Ford. Blood is thicker than city loyalty and she could hardly be blamed for wanting to see her father get his elusive championship ring. Ford, as good as she is, is unlikely to match Karl Malone's feats in the sport but in her rookie season she achieved what Malone has been unable to after 19 seasons in the sport. The Pistons opened the season at around the $21 mark and drifted to $23 before gradually firming as they produced solid results. It wasn't until the signing of Rasheed Wallace, who joined Detroit from Portland after a one game stopover at Atlanta, that anyone considered them serious title contenders. Even so they entered the Championship Series as a $6 chance. The Lakers, after the signings of Malone and Payton, firmed rapidly from $3.75 into an odds on favourite and were very layable at different times during the season at quotes as short as $1.75. Punters certainly warmed to the series as it progressed and turnover hit record levels. Betting in each game was characterized by punters from all corners of the globe latching on to the same team and supporting them very solidly. Game by game it went like this...... Game 1: They considered LA good things. BOOKIES WIN Game 2: Cautious here and the result was a push. DRAW Game 3: Punters all over Detroit and the Under. EMPHATIC WIN PUNTERS Game 4: Punters switch back to LA BOOKIES FIGHT BACK Game 5: They stick with LA BOOKIES WIN Judging by the turnover on the LIVE BETTING during each of the Championship games that form of betting is here to stay and it is one area where the punters recouped some of their losses from the games themselves. Looking forward we have the WNBA season in full swing. It has not been a favourite's season so far with roughly two-thirds of them failing to cover the line and many losing outright. Astute punters will surely attempt to pick up cash from following this trend; or is the trend about to reverse? Basketball at Athens is sure to provide many highlights and the place to find a full range of bets on all mens and womens games will be at Centrebet. RUGBY LEAGUE Wests Tigers have to be treated as a serious finals contender after a resounding 50-4 win over the Warriors in Christchurch last Sunday. Early money had been for the Tigers at $2.15, but most of the match day money was for New Zealand, led by a wager of $16,000 for them to win at $1.70. After a win the previous week with a new coach, the Warriors sunk back to the way they had been playing previously, and look to have no hope of playing a part in this years finals. St George Illawarra have been hot and cold all season, and they were 'hot' last Friday night when they defeated Penrith 28-8, much to the delight of those who backed the Dragons from $1.90 into $1.65. Granted Penrith had three of their stars out, but the Dragons also had several 'name' players out. Some pretty big bets were taken as the odds crumbled, including $20,000 at $1.83, and the same bet again at $1.75. St George Illawarra may well be the 'sleeping giant' in premiership betting. They still haven't had a bye yet, have a good draw for the rest of the season, and we have cut them to $9. For the fourth week in a row, a late try saved us a wad of money! Although the Canberra v Cronulla game handicap had moved from -8½ out to -10½, the bigger bets, including $20,000 and $16,000, were for Canberra conceding 10½ points start. They led by fourteen until Matt Hilder from the Sharks scored in the 79th minute to reduce the margin to 10, just inside the handicap. Souths scored a major upset when coming from behind to beat Melbourne, but as that wasn't one of the televised games, there wasn't a lot of action on it. Those that did play however were all on the Storm at -12½. Parramatta continued a mid season revival when they scored 36 points in the second half to beat Manly 52-12. Although the Eels were favourites, they were impossible to lay, drifting from $1.65 to $1.75, and while Manly weren't a huge 'go', they did have two $4000 bets placed on them at $2.20. With Souths winning, and Manly and New Zealand copping a hiding, there has been a major change to the wooden spoon market with Souths back out to $1.20, and Manly and the Warriors into $5.50. Queensland equalized the Origin series last night, and on what we have seen must be a real chance of winning the series even though the decider is in Sydney. After a slow few days of betting leading into the match (due to NSW injuries), things really warmed up on the day. The betting never moved, with Queensland favourites at $1.80 and NSW at $2. One bet of $20,000 was placed on NSW, along with several $10,000 bets, while the Maroons also drew several $10,000 bets. Darren Lockyer was backed to win close to $50,000 to be 'Man of the Match' at $6, but that award went to Billy Slater, whose try in the second half joined the annals of 'great Origin moments'. Timana Tahu's try right on half time cost one Queensland punter dearly. He had $3000 on the 'any other result' option at $8.50, and with the scores all tied up with less than a minute to go, he was looking at a payout of $25,500, but Tahu came along and spoiled the party! Betting on the decider won't be open until the makeup of the sides becomes clearer. Brad Fittler will be a key component, whether he decides to play on or not, and also the availability of Brett Kimmorley, who missed the second match with hamstring problems. The upcoming round has been really quiet, but with so many clubs having players in the Origin match, you can't blame punters for wanting to wait for that game to be over. There is some doubt over Matt Gidley in Friday nights match between the Roosters and Newcastle. The start was already a massive 12½ points to Newcastle, if Kidley is out, there will be a rush for the Roosters. Manly can temporarily get out of the 'wooden spoon zone' if they beat Souths on Saturday, but just the very nature of the way these two sides can disintegrate has seen very little activity. Manly are $1.42 with Souths at $2.85, and to date less than $300 has been bet on the match. That says it all! One side we have been keen to get something out of is Brisbane, who travel to Parramatta. We all know how the Bronco's struggle throughout the Origin series, and Parramatta are one side who have had a good record against Brisbane. They are slowly recapturing a bit of form, and this is their big chance to get back in favour with the fans. It's been a hard slog so far to get anything out of Brisbane, but we have had one bet of $7000 from a Melbourne client on Brisbane at -2½ ($1.90). It is a sad state of affairs when the New Zealand Warriors aren't favourites at home to beat North Queensland, but that is the case on Sunday. What is more disturbing is that the first handful of bets, all from New Zealand, has been for North Qld to win at $1.85! St George Illawarra v Wests Tigers is an important game on Sunday as both will be looking for a win to try and ensure a finals berth. The Tigers are the outsiders at $2.95, and they have met with good support at that quote even though the Dragons ($1.40) have been popular through the multiples. GOLF Its not often a golf event preceding a Major attracts a quality field however the Buick Classic is the exception to the rule and this week’s event proved no different. With the world’s number one, two and three ranked players teeing off, along with recent winners Sergio Garcia and David Toms, the ever threatening Padraig Harrington, all fine tuning their games prior to this weeks U.S Open, this event was certain to provide a classic finish with golf of the highest quality. Fans were not disappointed as the event ended with a three man play-off between Garcia, Harrington and the much improved Rory Sabbatini, culminating with a Garcia victory on the third extra hole. Punters were also not disappointed with the result as Els, Singh and Harrington, all backed to win $100,000, all had their chances to win, while Garcia, with bets of $1000(each way) and $500 (each way) at $23 and Sabbatini $500 (each way) at $101 provided little relief for Centrebet. Our one hope was 54 hole leader Loren Roberts who unfortunately closed with a seven over par 78 to fall out of contention and finish in a tie for sixteenth. This week the world’s best players head to New York to do battle at the U.S Open, being played for the fourth time at Shinnecock Hills. This course is designed to suit all types of players as it's 6,996 yardage is one of the shortest on tour, and yet as most recent winners here in Corey Pavin and Ray Floyd will testify, it is one of the truest tests of the all round game on tour. Betting has Tiger Woods installed as favourite once again but this time at the more attractive quote of $6.50, ahead of Ernie Els at $8 and Vijay Singh $11. A less than impressive showing from Woods and another consistent effort from both Els and Singh could spell the end for Woods at the top of the world rankings and may lead to him being displaced as favourite at the next event we offer with these players involved. This is proving to be one of the best patronised U.S Opens in recent times with many players backed to win over $100,000, including Els and Singh but also last weeks winner in Garcia, $21,and the likes of Harrington, $23, Clarke, $41, Perry, $51, Flesch, $67, Bjorn, $101 and Australia's Craig Parry, $151, to name just a few. And one additional fact when assessing this week’s form is that 13 players accounting for 15 of the 37 Buick Classic titles have also won U.S Open titles. Perhaps El Nino may break his 'Major' duck!! On the European tour front Miles Tunnicliff captured his second tour title after a bogey free final round 68 gave him a five shot victory at the Gleneagles Championship. Tunnicliff led by three shots after 54 holes but was still at the attractive odds of $2.10, however the conditions at Gleneagles were severe enough to instil doubts even in the most ardent Tunnicliff fan and as in pre-tournament betting the $2.10 attracted little interest. Irishman Graeme McDowell attempting to win his second title for the season was the only real challenger after a string of five consecutive birdies between holes 8 and 12 moved him within one shot of the lead, however a double bogey at 17 put pay to that charge. The tour heads to France this week with a combined event with the European Challenge tour for the Aa St Omer Open, the first dual ranking event of the year. It is proving to be a nightmare event for bookmakers and punters alike as lining up the form on both tours proves to be no easy assignment, however Simon Dyson has been installed $17 favourite ahead of a host of other aspirees including Brad Kennedy and Jean Luquin both at $21. Whatever happens the likelihood of a first time winner is the real favourite. ENTERTAINMENT The Australian Big Brother household had a visitor over the weekend, and the guys in the Gold Coast venue did something that a few English lads couldn't do, and that was pick that 'Something about Miriam' star Miriam, was in fact a man! Led by BB favourite Ryan, they were onto Miriam's secret from the outset, which no doubt would have disappointed the producers of the reality show. That aside, Merlin, our $1.60 favourite, was evicted, and then proceeded to make a political statement as he left. That has given the show a big boost in the ratings, and we are seeing that carry over into the betting. Another $2000 has come this week for Ryan to win at $2.75, but there has also been a bet of $1000 for Trevor at $3 and two $500 bets for Catherine at $11. Paul is right back in the betting at $6, and could well be the surprise packet. Amazingly he isn't up for eviction this week, so maybe the others are starting to tolerate his 'attitude'. Terri opened at $1.60 to be evicted this week, and that is where the first few bets went. Bree is second pick at $4, while Ashalea ($6) has had several bets placed on her. Although the polls say Wesley has a chance of being thrown out, betting would suggest he is safe for at least the time being, as he is the one who has attracted the least amount of bets. CRICKET The third and final cricket Test between England and New Zealand created plenty of excitement, and thanks to Graham Thorpe, the English won the series 3-0 after an enthralling battle early on the last day. Last week we said that there had been big money for the draw, and that continued right up until the start of the game. This time it wasn't the weather, but the info was that the pitch would be a batsman's paradise. One of our big Indian clients invested over $100,000 on the draw before the match started, the last $10,000 coming at $2. At different stages, all three options had a turn at being favourites, and that allowed us to get into a good position. The Kiwis went into the fourth day at $2, with England at $2.50 and the draw $5.50, the longest price it had been. Bets of $10,000 and $5000 were placed on New Zealand at $2, and it did look as though the New Zealanders were going to win the match. Unfortunately for them, the tail didn't wag, and they left England just over 270 runs to get. We didn't have any coverage of the match, which meant that we couldn't trade 'live', which was also unfortunate as England lost three early wickets in the run chase. The Kiwi's were trading as low as $1.45 on Betfair at the time, but Thorpe came to the rescue and England won, only losing one more wicket. We will be betting on each of the Nat West One Day Series Games which begins next week. SOCCER Greece gobsmacked millions of soccer supporters with its 2-1 defeat of Portugal but, unfortunately for Centrebet, our punters thought that the Euro 2004 host was vulnerable in the tournament opener and bet on World Cup-winning coach Luis Felipe Scolari's new team falling shy of expectations. Our clients got stuck into the Greeks on the draw no bet market, obviously figuring that they had a good chance of frustrating the Portuguese and snatching a goal or two, either on the break or from a set-piece situation. So it proved with Portugal becoming the first European Championship host to lose its first game of the finals since West Germany beat Yugoslavia 4-2 after extra time in 1976. Our punters are playing on every match so our turnover is exceeding expectations. There was no such thing as a quiet game from betting perspective in the first round, although two matches - England against France and Denmark versus Italy - stood out from the crowd. The Group B bash between the traditional rivals was a particularly good result for us as our clients backed the draw before kick off and the Three Lions once they took the lead. Les Bleus midfielder Zinedine Zidane can pop into our Alice Springs office for a glass of red wine at any time. He is more than welcome. If nothing else happens in Portugal over the next few weeks, we would be happy to see Henrik Larsson not score another goal. The Sweden striker is one of our worst Golden Boot results and opened his account with a brace against Bulgaria. Many of our punters think that Henka does not need Scottish Premier League defences to make him look good. They may be excellent judges. SPECIAL EVENT This week we break new ground by betting on the upcoming World Balloon Championships, which will be held in Mildura (Victoria, Australia) from June 27 until July 2. Now, this is not as simple as filling the balloon up with 'hot air', going skywards for a pleasant flight, then landing. Researching the rules and regulations, we found that there is more to the art of hot air ballooning in determining a world champion. Each balloonist is given a small bag of sand, and the task is to drop that as close as possible to a designated spot on the ground. Points are awarded according to the distance from each target, and are aggregated over the eight days of the championships. Most points wins. So that is a simplified version of how it works. Dave Bareford from England is the current World Champ, and although ranked number two in the world behind German Uwe Schneider, the Englishman is our $4 favourite. Schneider is the second elect at $5 ahead of Japan's Masahiko Fujita (ranked 4) at $6. Australia has three representatives, with the best of those appearing to be Paul Gibbs. Gibbs is ranked 14 in the world, and we have priced him up at $13, with the other two Aussies, Edwin Michell and Sean Kavanagh both quoted at $41. Anyone who wishes to do their own form should visit www.2004worldsballoons.com.
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