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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES It was a pretty bleak weekend weather wise around the country, and it also ended up being a bleak weekend for the bookies when six of the seven favourites won in the AFL. The signs were there early when on Friday night Hawthorn gave the betting fraternity a glimmer of hope when they led St Kilda by 25 points at quarter time. Rumours had St Kilda forward Fraser Gehrig as an unlikely starter, so we chased St Kilda and got more than we planned for out of them. The largest bet was $10,000 at -40 ˝, and that was after we had already taken several $5000 bets at 41 and 42 points start early in the day. With nearly an eleven goal turnaround required for us to lose, things were looking rosy, but St Kilda moved into overdrive in the second half, and covered the handicap with over four goals to spare! The arctic conditions predicted for Geelong on Saturday saw us do an 'about face', and go after Brisbane in the betting against the Cats. We got the Lions from $1.36 out to $1.40, but punters were a wake up to the conditions, and apart from some big multis with Brisbane, we kept laying Geelong on the way down, only to record a small win on the only upset of the round. The biggest multi that went down with Brisbane was $50,000, a treble of Brisbane, Port Adelaide and New Zealand to win the rugby. The dividend was $4.38, so the loss of the Lions cost one punter $219,000. Port Adelaide are fast becoming Centrebet's most unpopular site after they landed some big bets in a 10 point win against Fremantle at Subiaco. Port are one side who have never experienced much trouble handling the travel west, but we didn't think that the $2 opening quote was that big of a spoil. Wrong! The price was backed all the way in to $1.80, including bets of $30,000 ($1.90) and $15,000 at $1.85 on the way down. Fremantle look like they are going to stagger into the final eight and we then face a hefty payout of pre-season bets that we took at around the $1.90 mark. If only Richmond had been able to put them away last week...... We dodged a bullet when Carlton thrashed Richmond. All week we were looking for some big money for Carlton at $1.80, but it didn't happen, so that was one that went our way. However on Sunday, it was a different story when all three favourites won, with two of those, the Kangaroos and Melbourne, firming up on the back of some heavy betting. The Kangaroo's came in from $1.60 to start at $1.48, while Melbourne attracted a bet of $20,000 at $1.90 before starting $1.80. Both of these sides were coupled up in multiples with Adelaide, and while all three outsiders looked winning hopes in the first half of each match, all three suffered resounding defeats, as did we! The 'split round' will see only one game played this week when Sydney host Collingwood on Saturday night. This should be a fabulous betting match, and experience tells us that in situation like this (only one game, the favourite always shortens. With that in mind, we have been looking for early Collingwood money at $2.60, and did get close to $5000 out of the Magpies when betting opened on Monday. All the usual bet types will be popular on this game, one that we can see Sydney winning, but maybe only by a narrow margin. A few big premiership bets came our way last week. The first was $80,000 on Brisbane at $2.25, with the same person also placing $30,000 on St Kilda at $4, while we also took bets of $12,000 for both Port Adelaide ($10) and Essendon at the same price. Following last weeks results, the Lions are out to $2.40, but there have been some significant movers in Port (now $7.50), Melbourne ($7.50), and the all conquering Geelong, now into $13. Nobody wants to be on Geelong, but while they are winning, we are more than happy to have them on our side. RUGBY LEAGUE On paper, last weekend looked like it could have been a 'blackout' for rugby league bookies, but even though six of the seven favourites won, only four of those six managed to cover their respective handicaps, so bookies came out ahead. As expected, there was a rush of money for the Roosters on Friday night, and their supporters weren't let down when the Roosters won 48-4. Several $10,000 bets were placed on the Roosters conceding 12 and 13 points start, and they showed why they are the $2.75 favourites to win the title. Canberra put up a spirited display, although beaten, when the Bulldogs edged them out 24-20 on Saturday evening. There were some decent sized bets placed on the Bulldogs to win (including one of $22,000 at $1.36), but there was also ample support for the Bulldogs at -8˝, with those punters missing out thanks to a late Canberra try. Souths once again proved a 'giant killer' when they beat Manly 34-30. At one stage the Rabbitohs were headed 30-28 after leading 28-8, but they steadied the ship to deliver a knockout blow to the very few who were brave enough to take $1.42 Manly. That win has opened up the wooden spoon betting, with Souths back out to $2.20 ahead of Manly and the Warriors at $3. The crucial games will be Souths v Warriors (in NZ) in round 19 and Souths v Manly (Aussie Stadium) in round 24. We went with Parramatta again and paid the price when a tired Brisbane Bronco outfit still outplayed the Eels to win 34-24. Although there were two $10,000 bets for Brisbane conceding 2˝ points start, it could have been a lot worse. Fortunately it appeared as though many were of the opinion that the poor 'post Origin' form of Brisbane would continue. They, like us, over-estimated Parramatta! On Sunday, Cronulla v Penrith was the standout betting game, with money coming both ways before it started, and continued on the same way at half time. The major break saw the Sharks go into the rooms with a 12-6 lead, at which point we posted them at $1.47 (-4˝) and Penrith at $2.60. The Panthers looked to be in trouble, and had to contend with going into a breeze in the second half. That didn't faze one punter from Queensland, (who was already on Penrith before the game started), as he proceeded to place another $6000 on the Panthers to win outright. It was a brave call, and he got the money easily when Penrith scored 26 unanswered points in the second half. This week looks very one sided where all bar one of the favourites will be conceding at least 10 points start. Punters were active early this week. As soon as betting opened there were two $5000 bets for St George Illawarra (-12˝) against the Tigers, and that support has continued late into the week with the start edging towards 14. The Bulldogs have been one side who has always handled the trip to Townsville well, but this week they look to be one of the fav's that could possibly go over. The Cowboys have put together four wins from their last six matches, but their defense will need to tighten up a little if they are to grab the two points. The Bulldogs ($1.40) have been popular through the multi’s, and we are also seeing money for them at -7˝. The other two matches on Saturday night look like mere formalities for the two 'shorties', Penrith and Melbourne. On current form, New Zealand look to have no hope against Melbourne, and that has seen Melbourne coupled up in most big multi's, as well as three bets totaling close to $12,000 at -14˝ points. On Sunday, we have been eager to lay Brisbane at -10˝ against Canberra. The Raiders looked good last week, but have still lost their last six matches away from home. That might not prove much inspiration for those wanting to be on the Raiders, but there was a story in this weeks Rugby League Week that pointed out that the average winning margin for the Bronco's this year has only been 10 points, easily their lowest ever. Souths get an opportunity to show exactly where they are at when they go in as despised outsiders against the Dragons. St George Illawarra showed with a 50-0 win last week just exactly what they are capable of, but the Rabbitohs have also shown that they can pile on the points. Punters have lumped plenty onto the Dragons early in betting with bets of $10,000 and two of $5,000 forcing the handicap down to -16˝ after opening at -14˝, and even that move hasn't stemmed the tide! The Dragons have come from nowhere to be fourth favourite to win the premiership at $7, and with a good run home, and two byes to come, they could well prove the 'smokey' to finish in the top four after a terrible start to the season. RUGBY UNION The current International test series have been going for a couple of weeks now and not too much can be gleaned from the results other than Southern Hemisphere countries have won seven of the eight tests played and that England is only a shadow of the team which won the World Cup last October, perhaps with or without Johnny Wilkinson. Tri Nations betting has seen the All Blacks firm into $1.80 from an opening quote of $2.10 on the back of two impressive demolitions of England in their two test series while The Wallabies have drifted out to $2.65 with two less than impressive performances against the lowly rated Scots. South Africa has remained firm at $6.50 given expected results against the touring Irish but there are still question marks as to whether they have bridged the gap on New Zealand and Australia. Australia may be good value given similar performances leading into last years World Cup where they were a Johnny Wilkinson drop goal away from a boil over. There are three tests this weekend, the first in Hamilton New Zealand where the All Blacks take on the Pumas from Argentina. The All Blacks are at the unbackable quote of $1.01, Argentina $14, and they must concede 38˝ points which may be value given a form line between England and Argentina and the fact many of Argentina's first string squad including fly-half Felipe Contepomi. The second test on Saturday evening at Lang Park has the Wallabies firm favourites against an injury depleted England at $1.36 and conceding 9˝ points. All money to date has been for the Wallabies including one $10,000 at $1.36 and given recent trends it is difficult to see England generating too much support against a Wallaby unit with something to prove. The third test is in Pretoria late Saturday evening with the much improved Springboks $1.18 and conceding 14˝ points against the unpredictable Welsh who are $4.75. This game has generated little business to date however the trip from Argentina to South Africa may find money arriving for the home side nearing kick-off. GOLF Retief Goosen won his second U.S Open in four years when he held out crowd favourite and reigning Masters’ champion, Phil Mickelson, by two shots on the difficult Shinnecock Hills layout. Goosen showed nerves of steel under his emotionless facade to record a two shot victory, thanks mostly to his radar like putter which registered twelve one putt greens on a day when most players struggled to come to grips with their lightening speed. His one over par 71 was the second best score of the day behind Australian Robert Allenby's even par 70, and seven strokes under the field stroke average on a day when no player broke par. Those stats in themselves are testament to his stoic final round effort but are even more impressive when you consider he trailed Mickelson by a shot with three holes to play and was enduring a period where his ball striking was not at its best. His 14 foot birdie putt on sixteen however threw off the shackles and aided by a double bogey from Mickelson on the seventeenth he was able to negotiate the difficult final two holes in par and record second Open title. And one must spare a thought for Mickelson who registered his third Open runner-up and perhaps a return of the label 'choker'. Nothing could be further from the truth as his ball striking and putting, given the pressure of his position, was second to none and the equal of Goosen who ironically has been labelled 'Mr. Cool'. Betting during this Open was as frenetic as any in recent history with Ernie Els backed to win over $200,000 at $8 by a client from Sydney and Vijay Singh was backed to win a similar amount at $10, while an English client placed $20,000 on Tiger Woods at $6.50 which ensured he too went to the line a poor result. Others well tried were Harrington, $23, Darren Clarke at $51 and Jeff Maggert, who carried one wager of $1000 each way at $126 which returned that client $32,500 for his third place finish, his seventh top ten at the Open from 14 appearances. Retief Goosen had his admirers at $34 pre tournament but was very well tried at $2.75 leading into the final round, including one wager of $10,000, and along with Maggert finishing third it took some of the cream off the result. This week the tour heads to Maryland for the Booz Allen Classic. The tournament may have a funny name but the 154 players who tee off will not see the humour as many will be striving for their first tour victory or attempting a top ten finish in an attempt to hold their card. Australian Adam Scott is favourite at $17, and while not enjoying the best of form in recent months is still one of select few in this event to have been successful in recent years. Next in the betting is Justin Leonard at $19 and as a past winner being successful in 1997 he may represent value while up and comer Charles Howell fresh from a forward showing in the Open is also $19. Defending champion Rory Sabbatini is next in the betting at $23 along with Tim Herron, while John Daly, a winner at the Buick Invitational in February, is $26. This event has not exactly inspired the punting public to dig into their purses with best backed being Daniel Chopra at $101, Steve Stricker at $126 and Australian Greg Chalmers $151, however the evenness of the field will ensure a tight finish. TENNIS We are deep into the first week of Wimbledon, and although it is impossible to report on a daily basis of what has been happening, favourite backers have got off to a very good start, even though most first round matches are still incomplete. We were a little concerned that the interest would be down this year with the withdrawal of some big names including Agassi, Clijsters and Henin-Hardene, and also the poor form of some of the other big names, but what that has done has only inspired people to bet! Prior to the first ball being served, we had taken the most we have ever held in pre-tournament bets on the men's final. Some of the bigger bets included 200,000 SEK ($AUD 40,000) for Roger Federer ($2.10) to make it back to back wins, bets of $4000 and $3000 for Lleyton Hewitt ($11), $2000 for Croatian Mario Ancic ($34), the same bet for Marat Safin at $34, and a host of smaller bets which in total have backed Tim Henman to win well over $100,000. Federer and Hewitt will meet in the quarters (if they are still in it!); whereas Henman is in the other part of the draw along with second favourite Andy Roddick ($3.50). The Williams sisters completely dominate the women's title with Serena at $2.50 and Venus at $3. Punters agree as there is practically no interest in any other player apart from Amelie Mauresmo at $11. As well as betting being available on each men's and women's match, there are also several exotic bet types on selected matches daily, so check the web site out each day. CRICKET With the West Indies being beaten in a one dayer by Ireland last week, it wouldn't surprise too many that they have been hard to lay to win the Natwest series. The Windies have been so disappointing for over a decade that a loss like that was on the cards, but it also wouldn't shock us if they came out and defeated either England or New Zealand in this series. One of our big Indian punters has stepped in and backed England to win the series, placing bets of $10,000 at $2.25, then having the same bet at $2.15. New Zealand is next in line at $2.85, with the West Indies at $3.50. The one thing worth noting is that the final is decided on the one game, not a 'best of' like in many other competitions. The first match will see England go in as warm $1.75 chances to beat New Zealand on Thursday. The English team might be without Martin Trescothic, and we consider the Kiwi's to have a strong enough batting attack to be competitive. So, we have taken the Poms on at $1.75, and it was the Indian punters who have been accommodating us, including bets of $12,000 and $10,000. The first test in Darwin between Australia and Sri Lanka is open Monday. Shane Warne's inclusion has had a big affect on the market, with Australia at $1.48, the draw at $4.25 and Sri Lanka at $5.50. ELECTIONS Another poll was released this week which showed that the Labor Party would get in if an election was held now, but that poll contradicts what we have seen in our 'punters poll' over the past two weeks. There has been a steady stream of bets coming for the Coalition since Labor introduced their 'new recruit', Midnight Oil lead singer Peter Garrett. The betting was $1.70 the Coalition, with Labor at $2, but those bets, culminating in one wager of $10,000, has seen a price change with the Coalition back in to $1.65. To prove a point that not a lot of people take notice of the polls in the paper, we had a look at the bets taken on Tuesday of this week after the release of that news. Whilst it wasn't a huge day for bet numbers, we did take 8 bets for the Coalition, and only one for Labor, so evidently those 8 people didn't put too much credence into what they read in the paper. ENTERTAINMENT Australian Big Brother evictions are back on track with favourites being shown the door each week. This week it was Terri who was shown the door, and although she started at $1.70, each of the four nominees attracted their share of bets, so much so that this one was one of the biggest eviction books that we have ever had. Kane had never received a nomination vote before this week, but not only is he topping the polls, but punters have him in their sights as well. Up against one other male (Wesley) and two females in Bree and Ashalea, we thought that this would be a good test of our theory that the females get voted out first, but betting suggests that Kane will be packing his bags on Sunday. The opening $2 was taken with roughly $2000 worth of bets, and that support has continued down to $1.35. Apparently a couple of intruders are going into the house at the end of this week, but that wont affect our overall market as the betting is based on only those initial names in the household, so the winner in our book would be the last of those to leave the house. FORMULA ONE Japanese driver Takuma Sato (BAR) had his first podium finish in last Sundays USA Grand Prix, and if his team had been a bit more creative, he may well have come away with first prize! Sato was well placed when Ralf Schumacher crashed on the eleventh lap, and while most teams took the opportunity to refuel, the BAR team didn't, and that is what cost Sato victory. He went into the race a $15 chance, and would have been a huge result, instead of another predictable win for Michael Schumacher. Actually, we did record a small win on the $1.50 favourite as the bulk of bigger bets, including two of 2000 Euro's, came for his team-mate, and runner-up, Rubins Barrichello at $3.25. Only eight cars finished the race around the worlds quickest circuit, and one of those to finish, Jarno Trulli, landed a 'top 8 finish' bet of 30,000 SEK ($AUD 6000) at $1.80. Jenson Button, Sato's team-mate, was one of those who failed to finish, and he also had a fan in Sweden who placed 25,000 SEK at $1.70 to beat home Sato. The BAR team are really competitive at the moment, and a win may not be too far away. The next GP will be in France in two weeks time. McLaren will be using their new car for the first time, but it will want to be much quicker, and more reliable, than the ones they are currently using. SOCCER We made a killing in the Group of Death as Germany and the Netherlands sucked the life out of our clients who took short odds on the traditional powerhouses beating Latvia and the Czech Republic respectively. The plunge on the Germans taking three points from their match against the Group D minnow surprised everyone at our headquarters as we were expecting most of our high rollers to ignore the worst side in the proud nation's history. Our punters thought that Germany would win and win big but it was not to be. The Latvians were somewhat unfortunate not to snatch victory. Germany was easily the best backed side of the first two rounds, firming in fro an opening $1.45 to start at $1.35. Some of the larger bets included 40,000 Euro ($1.38) and $50,000 at the opening quote. There was also a good push from Asia for the goal total to go beyond 2 ˝ goals, including $20,000 at $1.65, and a bet of $40,000 for the Germans to lead at half time ($1.65). The 0-0 result was perfect! At least our clients who backed Germany to crush Latvia did so before the game kicked off. The Netherlands were 2-0 up against the Czechs before our punters logged on to the internet for an in-running gamble. Some persons took 1.12 on the Dutch beating the Euro 2004 dark horses, who fought back to win 3-2 after Netherlands boss Dick Advocaat made three odd substitutions. He is persona non grata in more cities than Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Eindhoven. We advise Advocaat to stay away from places where our customers congregate. Seriously, Dick, do not go there. Denmark was the one country that did not incur the wrath of our clients in the first round. Every other nation did one or more things on which punters were not banking. As you can imagine, we are loving every minute of the tournament. Long may it continue. Our turnover is phenomenal and shocks are occurring on a regular basis. We could do with some of the Golden Boot leaders pulling hamstrings, though! Milan Baros, Henrik Larsson and Zinedine Zidane are three of our bad results. The unexpected early exit of Italy from the tournament has sent conspiracy theorists into frenzy, as the 2-2 draw in the Denmark v Sweden game was the exact score required to turf the Italians out. In one of the most bizarre betting games we have ever had on a major competition, the first bet we took was $USD 15,000 on the draw at $2.30 from Asia. The draw was layable to those who suspected a contrived finish, but we noticed our Danish and Swedish clients kept right away from that option. In fact the draw got out to $2.50 with Centrebet! The 2-2 option saw a lot of betting, with one client from Slovakia picking up 10,000 Euro after backing that scoreline at $4.50, the shortest we have ever had the 2-2 scoreline, and about one quarter of the price it normally is. Amazingly, the draw/draw option in the half/full time double was a huge result, as was the under/over 2 ˝ goals. All the money from Asia was for the 'under', led up by one bet of $25,000 at $1.90, bets which flew in the face of what the conspiracy theorists predicted. France has firmed into $3 to win the title, ahead of England and Portugal at $6. Denmark is now a $13 chance, and our Danish clients, for the first time, really think they have a show of lifting the trophy. Until next week, good punting. For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or centrebet@centrebet.com.
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