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Centrebet Capers
TENNIS No matter who wins tonight's French Open semi-final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, the winner seems assured of red hot favourtism to win the final. Federer and Nadal have been the two best backed players since betting opened two months ago and apart from when it was obvious that they would meet before the final, the only other player to enter the market was Guillermo Coria and he is now out. Nadal did open at 17.00 but the big money came at shorter prices and in waves. We have taken bets of $5000 (12.00), £2000 (8.00), £2500 (5.00) and yesterday took another $12,000 at 2.70. While Nadal is a shocking result, Federer isn't much better with bets of $20,000 (3.75) and $USD 10,000 (2.50) sitting under his name. Puerta and Davydenko play off in the other side of the draw and while both are huge winners they are going to be a monstrous price in the final anyway. Tomorrow night’s semi is really the final and betting is massive. Federer is favourite at 1.65 and we have already seen bets of $20,000 and $10,000 (three times) come for him. Nadal is the underdog at 2.25 but has just as much support, including one bet of $USD 12,000 from the Ukraine and a rather ambitious bet of $3000 for Nadal to win 3-0 at 7.00. We think Federer will have too much experience this time and we are tipping him to win in four sets. There’s been little or no interest in the women’s event with Justine Henin-Hardene and local favourite Mary Pierce expected to meet in the final. Both are previous winners at Roland Garros and should prove to be too strong for their Russian opponents Nadia Petrova and Elena Likhovtseva. Henin-Hardene is 1.40 to win the championship ahead of Pierce at 4.50. AUSTRALIAN RULES Another strange weekend of results which saw five of the eight favourites win but two of the 'good things', Geelong and Brisbane went down. Friday night's match between Melbourne and Richmond was the biggest ever Friday night match. Richmond firmed in from 2.15 to 2.00 on the back of rumours, Melbourne forward, David Neitz was out, with the largest of those bets being $50,000 at 2.00. The bigger bets for Melbourne included $35,000 and three bets of $20,000 all at 1.80 with the last two coming after Neitz was a confirmed non starter. The Demons led all night and ended up winning by 57 points, despite being challenged early in the first half. Saturday was the big blow to punters when three of the four matches went to the outsiders. There wasn't much doing in the Collingwood v Hawthorn match which went to the Magpies at 2.45. St Kilda were reasonably hard to sell when 43 point winners over Sydney and in the other two games we had mixed fortunes. Sunday saw all three favourites win but the result wasn't horrendous as there had been plenty to say that the Bulldogs could beat Essendon ($20,000 and $16,000 at 2.00) but they fell 27 points short. West Coast confirmed flag favourtism by destroying Port Adelaide 179-62. This week it doesn't get any easier for punters as there are several games that can go either way but the finals picture may become a lot clearer. Brisbane are in real trouble and are now shorter to win the wooden spoon (10.00) than they are to win the flag (26). They travel to Fremantle and find themselves unwanted outsiders at 3.45. Richmond face a daunting task against the West Coast. If Nathan Brown was playing, we would be happy to go for the Tigers at 2.85 but with him gone for the season, maybe the morale has as well. The Kangaroos have a home game at Manuka Oval in Canberra and their fine record at the ground must give them some hope against Melbourne. We are looking for Melbourne money at 1.60 but apart from a couple of early bets of $3000 and $1800 they have been hard to lay. RUGBY LEAGUE Penrith are in our bad books after they surrendered a 26-6 lead against Manly on Sunday to lose by a staggering 10 points. The Panthers failed to score while the rampaging Manly side piled on 30 unanswered points at the same time turning what was going to be a big winning result into one of the weekend's worst. We took bets of $40,000 and $20,000 for Manly to win at 1.65, as well as three bets of $10,000 conceding 3 ½ point-start and another of $20,000 conceding a 4 ½ point-start. Although the Manly game went the way of punters, overall, the betting public had a torrid time. They got off to a poor start on Friday night when a couple of late exclusions to the Cowboys side saw big money come for the Bulldogs but they again disappointed. When Brett Kimmorley decided to back up for the Sharks after Origin 1, punters gained some confidence, backing them both to win at 1.53 and to cover a five point spread. The biggest losing bet for the Sharks was $40,000 at 1.53 but there was one bet of $8000 for Parramatta at 2.50. The Eels keep staying under the premiership radar and are now into 11.00. This week, Parramatta again find themselves as the underdogs and they travel to Penrith Stadium in a 'must win' match for the Panthers. They blew a huge lead last week and their home form this year is poor with only two wins from five starts. We are keen to take them on as they are playing without confidence and have taken two early bets totaling $12,000 at -3 ½. St George Illawarra have been the scourge of punters this year but they are lining up again this week to say that the Dragons will belt the New Zealand Warriors. The opening handicap of -10 ½ seems certain to disappear by the time the weekend comes around as the first two bets on the game were $10,000 and $7000 at that price. All interest will centre around the comeback of Andrew Johns at Newcastle on Sunday.The Knights haven't been winning but they haven't been far away either and we rate them an excellent chance of not only getting within the 9 point handicap but also winning the match. GOLF Justin Leonard won his second PGA tour event of the season in winning the FedEx St Jude Classic, one shot clear of defending champion David Toms. While the event was not too well supported by the punting public, there was still some interest in outsiders such as Fredrick Jacobson, Omar Uresti and Arjun Atwal at either the win or place price. Only Jacobson was able to play a hand in the event however, a third round fadeout saw him eventually finish in a tie for sixth. This week we head to the Jack Nicklaus designed Muirfield Village course in Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Defending champion Ernie Els (9.00) must defeat a quality field including Tiger Woods (5.00) and Vijay Singh (7.00) if he is to defend his title. Strangely this event has not inspired our punting public to get too involved either with the likes of Englishmen Greg Owen and Justin Rose best backed at 101 with both taking in excess of 50k the place. This event only attracts quality winners so expect one of the ‘big three’ to play a major hand. We suspect Tiger Woods has something to prove this week and Muirfield Village should provide the perfect backdrop. On the European tour, Argentine Angel Cabrera shot a closing five under par 67 to win his third tour event, the BMW championship. The event attracted some of the big names on the tour including Els, Goosen and Harrington. However, it was Cabrera who was able to handle the tough course at Wentworth best for a two shot win over Paul McGinley, with a further shot back to David Howell and Australian Nick O'Hern. Despite the good support for the big names Cabrera also had his admirers including one wager of $1000 each-way from a Scandinavian client at 29. This week the tour heads to Wales for the Celtic Manor Wales Open and not surprisingly given his form in recent weeks David Howell is favourite at 11.00 from Swede Thomas Bjorn at 12.00. RUGBY UNION The Super 12 season has finally come to a close and much to the disappointment of the 'Rugby Mad' Australian public, an Australian team could not hang onto the trophy. The Crusaders clinically dispatched the Waratahs, who were playing in their first Super 12 final, to win 35-25 and take their fifth title from seven finals appearances. Betting on the final was brisk with our first wager, $20,000, coming for the Crusaders at their opening quote of 1.28 from a New Zealand client. Money also kept coming for them conceding 10½ point-start forcing their win quote into 1.26 and the start to 11½. It appeared all one-way traffic until the final hour leading up to kick-off where the Australian punting public rallied behind the ‘Tahs’ at the win quote of $3.90 and receiving 11½ points. Any monies for the Waratahs were well received by us. As well as the heavy support to win the final they were also well backed prior to the commencement of the tournament, including a $20,000 wager at $4.25. It’s certain the Waratahs will have learnt something from their first Super 12 final. However, with the Western Force franchise about to rob them of some of their stars it may be a few more years before they can extract revenge. CRICKET The banter between the Australians and the English is starting to get serious and it won't be long before the first ball is bowled to get the upcoming Ashes series under way. Australia have been the favourites since betting opened two years ago but now that we are close to the start of the series some serious money is starting to roll in. The Aussies are into 1.40 and in the past two weeks we have taken bets of $10,000 and $6000 at that quote. In the same period there has been nearly $7000 worth of bets for England at 5.00. There’s also been a smattering of interest for a drawn series at 6.00. As for the correct series score option, Australia to win 5-0 has been backed from 13.00 into 10.00 and 4-0 has also firmed. A 5-0 win sounds a little ambitious given the conditions in England and the fact that they look to have improved as a team. We hope they have improved as a team or the one-day series may go down as the worst in history. Australia, England and Bangladesh will be the three teams involved. The way Bangladesh played in the first Test last week against England looks like an ideal opportunity for the Australian and English players to improve their stats. Bangladesh were 67.00 to win that Test and will be somewhere near that price in the one day games as well. BOXING Kostya Tszyu will defend his IBF Light Welterweight Title in Manchester on Saturday (Sunday morning Australian time) against Briton Ricky Hatton. Given the timing of the event we are expecting plenty of betting interest. While Tszyu is a hot favourite at 1.31 we have noticed plenty of money coming from the UK for Hatton at 3.25. Bets on Hatton include two of £1000 and also bets totalling £2500 for him to win on points at 6.00. Tszyu has proven quite popular with Aussie punters even though he is a short quote with bets of $12,000 and $10,000, as well as three $2000 wagers for him to win by KO at 1.75. The two fighters have similar records with Tszyu having won 31 of 33 (one loss, one draw), 25 of those by KO. Hatton has won all 38 starts with 28 of those by KO but his opposition had been inferior to Kostya's. We think Tszyu carries too much fire power and expect a win by KO. Next Wednesday, Denmark's Mikkel Kessler will be in Sydney to take on Anthony Mundine for the WBA Super Middleweight title. This was scheduled for a month ago but Kessler hurt his back, which must of some concern to his Danish supporters. The 1.60 for Kessler has already attracted some business from Denmark but we expect Mundine to do the same at 2.20. There is some pretty solid form to suggest why Kessler will win because in his last fight he knocked out Manny Siaca who previously defeated Mundine. FORMULA ONE Odds on favourite, Kimi Raikonnen was on the verge of recording his third straight victory in the European Grand Prix on Sunday but a spectacular tyre blowout on the last lap cost him victory. It may be a big turning point in the season, as Fernando Alonso went on to win the race and extended his lead in the championship. The ‘Flying Finn’ went in as a warm 1.70 chance but punters weren't completely convinced he was a sure winner. We found money for Juan Pablo Montoya at 6.00 and also had a bet of $USD 2500 for Nick Heidfeld at 8.00. Mark Webber was well in the betting at 13.00 to win and 3.00 to finish on the podium (one bet of $3000) and began the race from third spot on the grid but caused a minor sensation when he crashed out on the first turn. MOTOR BIKES Valentino Rossi goes into his home GP at the Mugello circuit in Italy holding a commanding 37 point lead over compatriot Marco Melandri and the betting suggests that Rossi will increase that lead. Rossi is off to a flying start this season, winning three of the four races held so far. He was a touch lucky in two of those wins but appears to be back at his peak now. The 1.57 we are offering has been attractive to some punters with the largest bet €2600. Melandri (9.00) has also been quite popular with smaller punters and while he is currently sitting in second place on the championship table we expect the biggest challenge to Rossi to come from Sete Gibernau (3.75) who has twice been runner up to Rossi this season. MISS UNIVERSE Natalie Glebova, representing Canada landed a late plunge to be crowned Miss Universe on Tuesday of this week. Glebova, who was born in Russia but moved to Toronto as a child, won the title from the second favourite Cynthia Olavarria of Puerto Rico. Canada was the late mover over the final two days of betting, starting at 4.50 after 9.00 had been available. Close to $25,000 was wagered on Miss Universe and the five finalists (Canada, Puerto Rico, Domincan Republic, Mexico, Venezuela) made up five of the top seven on the betting list so our 'form' analysts did an outstanding job! ENTERTAINMENT Not since of the days of Reggie Bird have we seen a woman favourite to take out Australian Big Brother but this week Kate emulated that feat when she took over that mantle from Glenn. The sheep shearer’s antics with the girls have seen him slip down the popularity polls so we have altered his price from 2.00 out to 3.75. Kate, who hasn't been nominated yet, is the 2.75 favourite ahead of Logan (the twins) at 3.50. Nearly every bet taken this week is for one of that trio. The replacement housemates have entered the house but we don’t think either Rachael or Vesna have much chance of winning and have accordingly listed them both at 34.00. As we predicted last week, Gianna was a special to go and was backed in from 1.33 to start at 1.10 with the two biggest bets being $1800 and $1000 at 1.20. We did escape however, as there was genuine interest in Geneva and also in Michael. This week, the lone female up for eviction, Christie, looks safe. We have her listed at 15.00 and she has only had a couple of small bets placed on her. Dean has had all housemates offside and his demeanor hasn't impressed the public either as he has been backed from 1.33 into 1.30 to be shown the door. Michael (3.50) looks safe for the moment but judging by the comments made in the house this week he looks likely to be nominated every week until he’s soon evicted. The voting public of Australia did an about face and so did a few punters when ‘The Greedy Goose’ from Adelaide won My Restaurant Rules. Early in the week it looked like the antics of Adelaide's Justine were going to bring about their downfall and punters were keen to take the 1.40 for Sydney’s ‘Pink Salt’ to win their restaurant. However, in the space of a few days a positive campaign in Adelaide and on radio around the country saw late money come for ‘The Goose’ and they landed the major prize. Adelaide was 2.75 in early betting but we took five separate bets of $400 and dozens of smaller bets which saw the final price collapse into 2.10. Sydney meantime, started an easing favourite at 1.65. ELECTIONS The Northern Territory election was called this week and while we haven't done the election where we reside in the past, betting on politics has become so popular that we had no choice but to offer it. Labor currently hold office in the NT, breaking a 27 year stranglehold that the CLP had held up until that point in time. The NT is a decidedly small electorate (just over 100,000 voters) so it’s sitting on a knife’s edge. We opened up the Labor Party at $1.33 and in the first 24 hours of betting, we took nearly $20,000 worth of bets, including two of $5000 and another of $3000. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or
centrebet@centrebet.com
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