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Aussie
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Centrebet Capers
AUSTRALIAN RULES The loss by Geelong to Collingwood last Friday night set punters off on what is now becoming a familiar path. The upset was not the start to the weekend punters were looking for after weeks of upsets and by the end of the round they were once again licking their wounds. There have only been 58 favourites win out of 88 matches. Sydney have been playing poorly but a few discounted that form to back the Swans to beat Carlton. We took one bet of $40,000 for Sydney to win at 1.80 and another $12,000 conceding a six point-start. Brisbane were backed from 3.50 into 3.10 including four separate bets of $4000. West Coast have firmed into 3.00 to win the flag but while that appears good odds there is still a doubt over their form at the MCG. This is the quietest season we have ever had on premiership betting due to the inconsistent form shown by all sides. However, we did take one bet of $1000 for Collingwood last week at 81.00 before they defeated Geelong. This week West Coast line up against Essendon and are the shortest priced favourite for the year at 1.10. We haven't found anyone brave enough yet to put a big amount on the Eagles straight out at the short odds. The loser of the Sydney v Fremantle game could be in some trouble as far as making the finals is concerned. The Swans are 1.48 but apart from a bet of $3000, we have found them hard to lay. Fremantle have met with support to win at 2.60 and also with 15 point-start. RUGBY LEAGUE Although New South Wales trail 1-0 they are now into 2.40 to win the State of Origin series following two bets of $10,000 taken this week at 2.50. Queensland have had at least one wish realised, as they go in to game two rank outsiders. We opened the Maroons at 2.55 and have taken nearly $5000 worth of smallish bets. That has been overshadowed by one bet of $15,000 for NSW at 1.50 and another bet of $8000 conceding 5 ½ point-start. The big money that came for the Bulldogs in the past few weeks looks very shaky now as their 21-all draw with Souths has put them dangerously close to missing out on the finals. The draw was a big bonus for Souths as that has now given them 2.5 wins, which is 2.5 more than Newcastle. The Knights are in strife both on and off the field and are now into 1.60 to run last and into10.00 to go through the season without winning a match. Origin players are ineligible to play this week so that has seen a downturn in business but there has been some money around in a couple of the matches. Canberra have been a solid go (three $5000 bets @ 2.00) to beat Brisbane. This is the time of the year when the Broncos normally hit the wall but Canberra are decimated themselves. Brisbane look good odds at the 1.85 on offer. North Queensland were the first major 'go' for the week when betting opened Wednesday. The 4 ½ start was taken to the tune of nearly $16,000 and another $12,000 worth of bets came for the Cowboys to beat St George Illawarra at 2.35. TENNIS Those who jumped in several weeks ago and took the big odds for Rafael Nadal to win the French Open were well rewarded. Nadal was one of our worst ever results in a grand slam event and after opening at 17.00 he was into 4.00 after the draw was announced. Granted he did have to meet Roger Federer before the final but the youngster swept Federer aside before going on to beat Argentinian Mariano Puerto in the final. The semi between Federer and Nadal was one of the biggest we’ve ever covered. Whilst Federer went in as favourite at 1.65 Nadal had more than his share of large punters behind him, including two bets of $USD 20,000 at 2.25. When he lined up in the final at 1.11 there was again some big wagers struck including one of $50,000, and another of $45,000. Betting is now open on Wimbledon and Federer is the shortest price favourite we have ever had for the grass title. He opened at 1.60 and although he lost the French Open semi to Nadal he is more at home on grass. Andy Roddick is second pick at 6.50 ahead of Lleyton Hewitt at 10.00. Justine Henin-Hardene is 3.75 to add the women’s trophy to her cabinet and has already been backed to win close to $35,000 in early betting. Maria Sharapova is narrowly behind Henin-Hardene in the betting at 4.00. After opening at 51.00, Alicia Molik is in to 31.00 and has been backed to win over $100,000 already. BOXING Australian boxers have been on the receiving end of some heavy punishment over the last few weeks with Kostya Tszyu and Anthony Mundine being the latest casualties. British fighter, Ricky Hatton outclassed Tszyu in Manchester on the weekend and in a terrific betting bout we only recorded a small win even though the outsider won. Tszyu started the favourite at 1.40 and while there was plenty of large wagers struck under Tszyu's name (including one of $22,000 for a win by KO), there was any amount of money for Hatton and not all of it came from the UK. In fact, the two biggest wagers each of $10,000 came from Australians with both taking 3.00. Last night, Denmark's Mikkel Kessler came to Australia to defend his WBA Super Middleweight title against Anthony Mundine. Mundine had been relatively quiet leading into this fight against the unbeaten Dane and for that reason we saw a lot of Aussies backing him. Unfortunately for many, they picked the wrong time to jump on board as he was beaten on points by Kessler. The bigger bets were all for Kessler who firmed from 1.60 into 1.45. RUGBY UNION The rugby community shifts its focus to the Lions tour of New Zealand. In the tour opener at Bay of Plenty some of our more eager clients snapped up the opening handicap of -18.5 forcing us to shift the handicap out a point. More European money almost had us moving the handicap again until one of our bigger New Zealand clients had a tidy $12,000 on Bay of Plenty with the start. The action for both sides enabled the bookmaker to have a small victory in a surprisingly high hold for what was effectively a trial match. The second tour match against Taranaki saw some of our New Zealand clients parlay their Saturday earnings into Taranaki at the +15 ½. It also saw quite a few of our Northern Hemisphere clients to try and get some back. Holding just over $50,000 we managed to keep a small portion as the upset that was beckoning at halftime (7-6 to the home side) didn't eventuate with the Lions 2nd string outfit running away to a comfortable winning margin of 22 pts. This weekend sees the Southern Hemisphere big guns do their thing for world rugby and play the second tier nations as they build up for the more serious encounters. Australia host Samoa at the Telstra Stadium and with queries over the Samoan selections and form we have had little interest in this match. The NZ Maori play the Lions in a more balanced betting affair and the All Blacks host Fiji. The biggest betting match of the week has been the weight of money for New Zealand at the line and handicap forcing a significant shift from our opening bid of 39 ½ out to the current mark of 45 ½ . All indicators are that the Fijians will be spending the balance of the 80 minutes on Saturday night behind their own goal posts GOLF Bart Bryant won his second PGA tour event in 9 months when he held out crowd favourite Fred Couples to win The Memorial by a shot Well supported players such as Tiger Woods, David Toms, Adam Scott and Peter Lonard all threatened to play a hand in the finish but it was only Woods with a closing 68 and a tie for third who was able to maintain some momentum. This was an unusual betting event, as punters were keen to support their fancy the place rather than at the better quote the win. Players such as Olazabal, Owen and O'Hern were all backed to win in excess of 20k the place but unfortunately for their supporters none were able to challenge the leaders. Our tournament this week is the Booz Allen Classic with Australian Adam Scott the defending champion at 26.00. Vijay Singh heads the betting at 8.00 from Ernie Els at 9.00 and Phil Mickelson at 10.00 However, the top three have been shunned by punters Best backed has been a resurgent Jim Furyk at 16.00 and Englishman Luke Donald at 26.00 both backed to win in excess of $40,000 while Bo Van Pelt has been backed to win a similar amount to finish in the top five at 11.00 On the European tour, Miguel Angel Jimenez won his seventh tournament from his last thirty-nine starts when he won the Celtic Manor Wales Open by four shots from countryman Jose-Filipe Lara.The win continues his amazing strike rate in the last couple of years and highlights what great value he was in this event at 17.00. FORMULA ONE The Formula Ones are in action at the Gilles Villeneuve Circuit, Montreal, Canada this week and although Michael Schumacher has won in Canada seven times he is an 8.00 chance to win this year. We have noticed a little more interest in Schumacher this week but in general the bigger F1 punters have shied right away from the German. Kimi Raikonnen is the favourite at 2.25 and we have already taken two bets of €2000 for him at that price. Fernando Alonso is the 4.00 second elect but hasn't attracted much support at that quote. In fact we have taken more for his teammate Giancarlo Fisichella at 15.00. V8 SUPERCARS The V8 Supercars are on the move this week and have traveled to China for the first time. All drivers and cars go into this race on equal footing as none have any experience around the $600 million Shanghai International Circuit. The ever reliable Marcus Ambrose is the opening favourite at 3.00 ahead of his arch rival, Mark Skaife at 4.25. There are plenty of chances though with Craig Lowndes (5.00) backed to take out $8000 in early trading. Greg Murphy (9.00) and Steven Richards (16.00) meantime have been backed to win half that amount. The Shanghai track has plenty of long straights so we can expect a high speed, action packed weekend MOTOR BIKES The MotoGP circuit backs up quickly this week after Valentino Rossi scored an emphatic win in Italy last week. On that occasion, Rossi started at 1.57 but is slightly shorter this week at 1.50 and that has been taken by two early bets totaling $6000. This week’s event will he held in Catalunya, the home track of second favourite Sete Gibernau (3.75). Gibernau has had a luckless start to the new season and he will no doubt be hoping he can make the most of the home advantage after seeing the Italians finish 1, 2, 3, and 4 last week in Mugello. Rossi has a massive 67 point championship lead over Gibernau and a win this week will make it nearly impossible for either the Spaniard or Marco Melandri to catch him. BIG BROTHER Last week’s Australian Big Brother eviction was one of the rare occasions where punters got it wrong on a reality show. Dean had been backed from 1.33 into 1.30 to be evicted, although we did see some money for Michael at 3.20, including three bets of $200. Christie looked safe at 15.00 but in a mini shock, it was Michael, and not Dean, who was evicted. This week, Dean is up again and unless he has an attitude change, he will be up every week until the public get rid of him. He certainly has spiced the place up a bit with his frankness but we have him the favourite to go this week at 1.66. This eviction is shaping as one of the best we have covered as in the first 24 hours of betting, nearly $12,000 was wagered. Michelle is second pick at 2.75 and this will test our theory that good looking females will always be thrown out first. Hotdogs is the outsider at 6.50 but he has been backed in from 8.00. Glenn, who a few weeks ago was as short as 2.00 to win the major prize is now out of favour at 5.00 as we learn more about him. He got a couple of nomination votes this week and is trying it on with all the girls. Kate remains the favourite at 2.75 but Logan (the twins) are back into 4.00 after being backed to take out nearly $3000. The big mover has been Tim who was one of the 'bolters' a few weeks ago at 34.00. In the past 10 days, Tim has been backed to win over $20,000 and is now into 5.50. The rest of the house has warmed to him and so it seems have the Australian public. NBA It is not by accident that the reigning champion from the East and the perennial power from the West have progressed to the NBA Championship series. It is no surprise to see these two teams there as they have been at or near the top of the betting since our markets came out last September. The Spurs opened at 5.00 and steadily tightened in the betting as they proved almost unbeatable at home, dropping only three games there. As the reigning champion Detroit opened at what now appears a generous 7.00 quote. They also steadily tightened as Indiana struck trouble and the Pistons kept the win column ticking over. As the winners of the last two championships there is no question that both these teams have the personnel, the experience and the coaching staff to get the job done. As always, the home court advantage that San Antonio hold is vital. Whilst they seem evenly matched and a close series is anticipated don't bet on a deciding seventh game being required. Only twice in past twenty years has the championship series gone the distance; 87/88 when LA Lakers beat Detroit and 93/94 when Houston beat New York. The Spurs in six games is the prediction. GREYHOUNDS Australia's best stayers will line up tonight in the Gold Cup Final at Albion Park in Brisbane. On times, there isn't much between the top half dozen chances but while Sydney stayer Malfoy may have seemed disappointing last week, we have awarded him favourtism at 3.50 after he drew the inside box. Victorian stayer, Rocky led all the way last week and while we have taken two bets of $600 for him to win at 4.00, in our opinion he could be in trouble from the box. Texas Gold (4.50) made up a massive amount of ground to grab Malfoy last week and while he has been backed to win close to $5000, he is going to need a lot of luck. If there is to be an upset, it could come from Texas Gold's kennelmate, National Distance Champion, Classy Customer. We have rated Classy Customer as a 5.50 chance and he did make up a lot of ground when an unlucky second in the quickest heat. Centrebet is also betting on the final of the Peter Mosman Classic at Wentworth Park this Saturday night. Favourite is Buddy Rich (2.75) drawn admirably in box one, but he is being hotly pressed by Australian Cup winner, Pure Octane at 3.25. POKER Poker both on and off line has taken off big time over the past three years with all the major events televised around the world. We have begun taking bets on who will make the final table of the upcoming World Series Championship which will be held at Binions Casino in Las Vegas. Binions has always been regarded as the home of poker and all the big names will be there to do battle in early July. As yet, the final field is not known but it could be upwards of 6000 players. We have already seen money for over 80 of those players to make the final table with Denmark's Gus Hansen easily the best backed. Hansen is wild and unpredictable but did win two events in the inception year of the World Poker Tour. He plays the man, not the cards and that type of aggressive play often scares away his opponents. The opening quote of 51.00 was snapped up and we continue to see money at 34.00. Daniel Negreanu is probably the 'face of poker' and has attracted heavy support, now into 34.00 after opening at 51.00. He has had numerous wins on the poker tour, but surprisingly was eliminated on the opening day of this event last year after being named 'World Series Player of the Year'. Ben Affleck (yes, Ben Affleck, actor, writer, producer, director and poker champ) has been backed to win close to $50,000 to make the final table at 201.00 and 101.00. Affleck shocked many when he won $350,000 against hardened poker professionals in a major tournament last year. Affleck hasn't been on the circuit for long and that might be the chink in his armour in the toughest poker tournament in the world. ELECTIONS The Northern Territory election is in full swing and with two weeks to go, Labor have cleared out as hot favourites. It has been on the back of heavy betting from other parts of Australia not the NT. To date, close to $70,000 has been wagered on the NT election but over half has come from the Eastern seaboard. The largest bet so far, $20,000 came for Labor from a Queensland client which saw the 1.28 disappear. We had previously taken four separate bets of $5000 for Labor, and all of those had come from New South Wales. The interesting thing from a local point of view is that of the money wagered from within the Northern Territory, most of that, including bets of $4000 and $2000, has been for the CLP. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or
centrebet@centrebet.com
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