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Centrebet Capers
RACING Visitors to the Centrebet website would have seen plenty going on this week particularly on Tuesday when we were down for 14 hours. This was a planned outage to merge three businesses into one. The three, Centrebet, Sportodds and Superodds now become one big business and racing punters have been one of the big beneficiaries. It will now be possible for Centrebet clients to bet on racing around the world and for those who follow Australian racing (all three codes) there is so much more available. We will cover all thoroughbred, harness and greyhound meetings each day. Horse racing punters will have the choice of fixed odds, starting price, best fluctuation (on selected meetings) as well as a final dividend option. It’s an exciting time for us here at Centrebet and we hope punters will enjoy the ride. GOLF We head to Pinehurst in North Carolina this week for the 105th US Open which sees Tiger Woods favourite at 6.00 in an even betting affair. Phil Mickelson is second pick and could be a value bet at 8.50. He’s finished runner-up at three US Opens including 1999 at Pinehurst behind the late Payne Stewart. Next in the betting is Ernie Els at 9.00, Vijay Singh at 12.00 and defending champion Retief Goosen at 17.00 all with the necessary short game to succeed here. Els, Jim Furyk, David Toms and Miguel Angel Jimenez have all been backed to win in excess of $200,000 at 9.00, 26.00, 31.00 and 81.00 respectively. Apart from the big five, players of the calibre of Furyk, Sergio Garcia (23.00), Adam Scott (23.00) and David Toms (26.00) should ensure the winner of this week’s Open is on his game. AUSTRALIAN RULES Punters extracted some revenge last weekend when seven of the eight favourites greeted the judge and the other game went to the well supported Kangaroos. Richmond went in as an easing favourite (1.70-1.80) against the Kangaroos but most money was for the Roos, who firmed from an isolated 2.25 to start at 2.05. It seems everyone has worked out that Richmond were in trouble the moment Nathan Brown broke his leg. The Tigers are in freefall mode now and have blown out from 15.00 to 61.00 to win the premiership after getting off to a flying start. West Coast got another scare before eventually running out 24 point victors over Essendon. With the recent spate of outsiders winning, Essendon were backed from 7.00 into 5.50 but we did take some big money for West Coast to beat the handicap. The largest of those bets was $40,000 conceding 33 ½ points (1.90) and another of $12,000 conceding 24 ½ points (1.50) which saw us sneak home by half a point. One client is thankful Essendon got off to a good start in the game after he placed $3000 on the Bombers at 3.50 to lead at quarter time, and they did the right thing in kicking 3.3 to the West Coasts 2.1. Geelong also provided some very nervous moments to those who backed them as they clung on to beat Adelaide by 4 points on Sunday. Geelong were the pre match favourites at 1.50 and there was plenty of money for them including one bet of $30,000 and another of $20,000. Although the Cats won their premiership price has drifted from 5.50 out to 6.00 Possibly the game of the year will be played this weekend with West Coast up against Melbourne in the first week of the 'split' round. The Eagles have been winning but struggling and have to travel to the MCG to take on the Demons who will be without full forward David Neitz. Melbourne are favourites at 1.75 with the West Coast at 2.05 and there is very little betting interest in the game but we often see that with 'top of the table' clashes. Port Adelaide are hot favourites at 1.20 to beat Hawthorn on Friday night and we have already taken a bet of $15,000 for Port to win. The handicap has been set at 30 ½ which seems a big start to be conceding as Port haven't been traveling that well. Richmond are in trouble and with talk that spearhead Matthew Richardson will be rested this week we have the Tigers at a tempting 2.45 but haven't been able to find any takers. Adelaide are 1.55 and a win to either side here would nearly confirm a finals berth so it is an important match. Brisbane (1.45) host Geelong and after a couple of wins against mediocre opposition we will really find out where Brisbane are at. They seem poor value but punters see it differently as in the first 24 hours of trading close to $26,000 had been placed on the Lions. RUGBY LEAGUE Andrew Johns may well be one of the best Rugby League players to ever have pulled on the boots but once he was made a late inclusion into last night’s second State of Origin match, New South Wales attracted massive support to level the series. NSW were 1.52 before the announcement and in fact we had seen more Queensland money in that time, led up by one bet of $12,000 at 2.50. That all changed when Johns came into the side and on the day of the game the ratio of bets coming in favour of NSW was 10-1. The Blues were back into 1.45 and conceding 7 ½ point-start. The bigger bets included $40,000 and $20,000 to win and five separate $10,000 bets to cover the handicap. It seemed as though QLD fans had deserted the ship completely which is extremely rare when they are the underdogs as they were (2.75) just prior to kick off. The lone exception was one avid Queenslander who weighed in with a bet of $20,000 at 7.25 (payout of $145,000) for Queensland to win by more than 12 ½ points. It will come as no surprise Andrew Johns was been backed to the exclusion of all others to win the man of the match (6.00). Luke Rooney (11.00) and Matt King (11.00) meantime were best backed to be the first try scorer. For the Queenslanders only Darren Lockyer (8.00) attracted any support in man of the match betting while Shaun Berrigan (14) was the player best backed to be first over the try line. Although the Origin players can play this weekend many normally don't back up especially for the Broncos. They have a relatively 'easy' game against Wests Tigers on Saturday night and are pretty short at 1.22. They have won ten in a row and we have taken plenty for them through the multiples as well as two $5000 bets to cover a 12 point spread. Cronulla and the Roosters play a 'must win' game on Friday night and who knows what will happen here? The Sharks have been woeful the past three weeks and will be missing Jason Stevens but the Roosters have also been struggling. The early betting has been in favour of the Roosters led by a bet of $8000. Souths have been a terrible side to us this year but have redeemed themselves over the past two weeks. They can continue the good work this week if they beat the Dragons or at least stay within 8 points. Bets of $5000, $4000 and $3300 came for St George Illawarra (-8 1/2) as soon as betting opened which is quite surprising given Origin duties. RUGBY UNION Enough has been said about the Fijian’s and Samoans after their respective thrashings over the weekend. As bookmakers we can empathise with them somewhat as the punters steamed into both games at the handicap and start, forcing us to make significant adjustments to the markets. Both New Zealand and Australia had covered their opening handicaps by the time the hooter went for halftime. The third tour match for the Lions was a massive betting event. Our odds assessors opened the Lions at 1.72, giving 2 ½ point-start and the party was on. The traffic was all one way for the tourists including $20,000 at 1.72, $12,000 -2 ½ @1.90 and another $15,000 at 1.67. The punters didn't stop unloading until we finally got to handicap of -4 ½ and a win price of 1.57 where we saw the first investment on the New Zealand Maori. It was a fairly upbeat mood in the office when Jono Gibbes and his men outplayed their highly fancied rivals. The bookies pretty much got it right for the fourth match of the tour. The money came confidently for Wellington ($10,000 +17 ½ @1.90 and another of $5,000 +17 ½ @ $1.90) It didn’t stop there as we wrote a couple of more significant bets at the +16½ and +15½ .The try to Gareth Thomas near the very end made the result almost palatable for us. This week we see the first genuine test match in the Southern Hemisphere as South African host France. Our opening market has South Africa 9½ point favourites with a win price of $1.33. The French on their end-of-season tour have opened at $3.25. Early betting trends indicate that South Africa will have the edge with some moderate bets (2x$5,000 and 1x$3,000) at the head to head price. The Lions caravan rolls into Dunedin this weekend with some selections in the first team still very much up in the air. With typical Dunedin weather expected the Scottish contingent should feel very much at home. TENNIS Roger Federer will go into the first round of Wimbledon as the shortest priced favourite we have ever had. Federer is currently sitting at 1.53 and we have found punters are even keen to take that quote, as he really does look a class above his rivals on the grass surface. We can only see one danger and that is Andy Roddick (6.00). Roddick would need to be drawn on the other side of the draw away from Federer but I suppose that applies to every player. There has been some support from Aussie punters for Lleyton Hewitt at 13.00 but he looks a risk after coming back following an injury enforced layoff. The normal flow of money has come from the UK for Tim Henman at 21.00 but he has a history of stumbling when the pressure is applied. Marat Safin (23.00) hasn't got the mental approach to win seven grass matches although we have found a few punters who disagree. French Open winner Rafael Nadal is also a risk on grass but having said that we have had no trouble laying him at 29.00 Maria Sharapova has overtaken Justine Henin-Hardene as favourite to win the women’s title. Sharapova won last year and is a 3.75 chance to repeat the dose. Henin-Hardene has bypassed all the grass lead-ups so she must be a query but has been backed to win close to $50,000. For those looking to back an outsider at big odds perhaps have a small wager on Russian, Vera Zvonareva at about the 100/1 mark. CRICKET You know there is something wrong in cricket when Ricky Ponting comes in to bat at six, and Jason Gillespie top scores. That is exactly what happened in the 20/20 match between Australia and England on Monday night and while there were a thousand anomalies in that game, the good thing to come out of it was that English cricket lovers now think they can win the Ashes. Australia were backed from 1.57 into 1.50 to win the 20/20 game and while England made a respectable 179 after their 20 overs, that wasn't an unreachable total the way this game is played. The big shock came when every single one of Australia's big hitters failed and England are now full of confidence with the one day series beginning at the weekend. We have ignored that little 'hiccup' in Australia's form and they line up against Bangladesh on Saturday at 1/200 with Bangladesh at 51.00. There have been a few optimistic clients who have had small amounts on Bangladesh to provide one of sports biggest ever upsets but most interest on this game will be in the high bats etc. The big game of this series will be on Sunday when England takes on Australia. The Aussies will be 1.45 in this game and we do expect plenty of support for England at 2.75 in light of the 20/20 match. At this stage we plan to bet live throughout the match also covering the 'next man out'. All the usual one day betting options will be up and running by tomorrow afternoon. FORMULA ONE Kimi Raikonnen closed the gap to just 22 points in the World Driver’s Championship after winning the Canadian GP on Sunday. Raikonnen benefited from both Renaults retiring as well as an error from teammate Juan Pablo Montoya, which saw the Colombian 'black flagged'. These early finishes along with Jenson Button's crash also saw world champion Michael Schumacher back on the podium for just the second time this season. Schumacher qualified second quickest behind Button and punters thought he was on the way back to his best form as he started a heavily backed 2.70 favourite. The German had been 9.00 before practice but we were swamped with big bets after his practice session including €4000 at 3.50 and $3000 at 3.00. Button was unwanted in the betting but we did see backing for Fernando Alonso at 3.75, including one bet of €2800 from Italy. Eventual winner Kimi Raikonnen didn't really attract his usual band of supporters, although one of our Aussie punters had $1000 on him to win at 4.50 and $5000 for a podium finish at 1.65. Another Australian placed $8000 on Mark Webber to finish in the points at 1.80 and Webber's battling fifth placing was aided by the withdrawals of several other drivers. This week, Formula One action continues its North American tour at Indianapolis. As in Canada, Michael Schumacher and Ferrari have dominated this event in recent years. Schumacher has won the last two years and three in total but clearly Ferrari are struggling. Schumacher is second pick at 4.50 behind Raikonnen at 3.00 while Alonso is next in line at 5.00. MOTOR BIKES Valentino Rossi has extended his lead to 58 points at the head of the MotoGP championship after another clinical display at the weekend. Spaniard, Sete Gibernau was looking for his first win of the season when racing on home soil in the Catalunyan GP. Gibernau qualified quickest and had done all the hard work out in front until Rossi snatched the lead from him with three laps to go. It was one of the rare occasions where a win by Rossi didn't prove costly to us even though he started favourite at 1.75.The bulk of the big business (including two bets of €2000) was for Gibernau at 3.00. The win by Rossi was his fourth in a row which now gives him five victories from the six races held so far and barring accidents that winning run looks like continuing. BIG BROTHER The Big Brother household goes from one sensation to the next and from a betting point of view we have had a couple of our own over the past few days. The first big thing to happen was another heavily backed favourite wasn't evicted. Dean was backed from 1.50 into 1.25 on the back of some ordinary poll results on the forums but as we alluded to last week, our theory that the 'good looking' females would be the first to go would be put to the test. The punters got it wrong as Michelle (3.00-4.00) was shown the door. Most of the bigger bets came from Victoria, including $3000 at 1.50, and another $1800 at 1.45. This week we have another sensation in the fact that Rachael will be the shortest priced favourite we have ever had on any reality show! She is 1.10 to be thrown out on Sunday. It's an all female eviction field this week with Geneva the second pick at 6.00, and Christie at 21.00. If Glenn was running at Flemington this week stewards would be entitled to swab him given his betting drift over the past few weeks. A month ago, Glenn was the 2.00 to win the $1 million but now that he has shown his contempt for the girls, he has blown out to 21.00. Kate remains favourite at 2.75 narrowly ahead of Logan (the twins) at 3.00 and Tim at the same price. Tim was a 41.00 a few weeks ago but along with Kate is flying under the radar. While this duo and Logan aren't getting nominated then they can’t be thrown out. ELECTIONS The Northern Territory will be held this Saturday and although the turnover is approaching $150,000 that figure has been bolstered by a couple of big bets from interstate. So far the biggest bets for the Labor Party to retain government have been $50,000 and $20,000 from Queensland and New South Wales respectively. We aren’t sure whether those two clients are political devotees who know are things are in the NT or just backing Labor because they already hold power. The interesting aspect is that of the $25,000 placed on the CLP to date (at 3.25 and 4.00) nearly all has come from within the NT. So to put that in perspective we would have to say that there isn’t much between the two parties and it could go either way. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or
centrebet@centrebet.com
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