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Centrebet Capers
TENNIS Justine Henin-Hardene, Serena Williams and Kim Clijsters may be out of Wimbledon but we still have four quality females left in the semi-finals which get under way tonight. Last year’s winner, Maria Sharapova, has been the short priced favourite to make it back to back wins since the exit of Henin-Hardene but apart from a $4000 bet taken early this week at 2.75 we have found very little interest in the Russian beauty. She is still at 2.30 but faces up to Venus Williams and the betting on this match has Sharapova at 1.45 and Williams 2.65. The other semi-final will see veteran Lindsay Davenport in action against Amelie Mauresmo. Davenport is the second pick to win the final at 2.80 and 1.33 in this game. Mauresmo has a history of collapsing in the past in pressure games so are we more than happy to take her on at the 3.15 on offer in this match. In the men’s, the top three seeds are through to the semi-finals as expected. Roger Federer, Andy Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt have all progressed through without too much difficulty. The only real ‘surprise’ has been the form of Swede Thomas Johansson who accounted for David Nalbandian in the quarter-finals. Federer has been solid throughout betting on the tournament and is currently a 1.33 and we think he’ll win his third straight Wimbledon title on Sunday night. In saying that, there’s plenty of Australian money behind Lleyton Hewitt who is 10.00 to win the tournament and 6.00 to down Federer (1.13) in the semi. In the other semi-final Roddick is also a short price (1.18) to defeat Johansson (4.85) in what will be an interesting contest. Both have grand slam titles to their name but we’d be surprised if the final isn’t a repeat of last year’s Roddick v Federer clash. AUSTRALIAN RULES It seemed as though some punters took the opportunity to take a mid season break like their AFL teams last weekend. There were only two games on and the levels of interest were well down on what we expected. Essendon have a habit of winning 'milestone' games and they had another one in Matthew Lloyd's 200th game at the club. The Bombers were backed from 3.60 into 3.25. However, AFL followers of form ploughed in to St Kilda at the 1.33 unfortunately for the Saints, Essendon produced the goods and won by 15 points. The bad weather in Sydney on Saturday saw Collingwood firm up in the betting, coming in from 2.80 to 2.65. The Swans attracted bets of $35,000 and $20,000 at 1.45, as well as two bets of $8000 to cover a 16 point spread. They scored by a point and have a very tough draw coming up. This week in possibly the biggest game of the round St Kilda play the Western Bulldogs. St Kilda are 1.55 and while we did take an early bet of $4000 at that price they have been hard to sell. West Coast are the shortest priced favourites for the year (1.07) when they play Carlton on Saturday night and so they should be. Not even the most avid Blues supporter has been interested in either the 8.00 they are to win the game or the 43 point-start, whereas we have taken bets of $5000 and $4000 for the Eagles conceding the start. RUGBY LEAGUE Anyone who tipped all seven winners in the NRL last weekend should be enrolling for Mensa. The 'all up' on all seven winners was over 600/1. It was great to see Newcastle rack up win number one for the season and also a relief. The Knights had been backed into 6.50 to go through the season without winning. They have eased out to 1.28 to win the wooden spoon and if they play the rest of the season like they did against Penrith they should get enough wins to get past Souths. The late inclusion of Jason Smith was the difference between winning and losing for Canberra against North Queensland but thank goodness the veteran played. Although we took two $8000 win bets for Canberra at 2.80 and numerous four figure bets for them with 6 point-start, the big money was for the Cowboys. Win bets of $20,000 and $17,600 came at 1.47 as well as two $20,000 wagers conceding the start. The Tigers and Manly will showcase their wares on Friday night and the Tigers are warm favourites at 1.48 following on from their impressive win over the Dragons. Melbourne have the advantage of Billy Slater being available this week but we priced them up as 6 ½ point underdogs against the Bulldogs on Saturday night. Punters reacted to that immediately with bets of $10,000 and two of $5000 coming for the Storm with the start. Souths copped another belting last week but at least two people think that it won’t happen again. We opened Souths in receipt of 16 ½ point-start against Parramatta on Sunday and straight away took bets of $10,000 and $5000 for them with the start. The selection process for State of Origin has taken up plenty of space in the media and while most were surprised at the axing of Billy Slater by Queensland it hasn't really deterred their fans from betting. The 2.30 has been easy to sell in the decider but with New South Wales naming such a good side and the fact that Andrew Johns will be there again, we expect the bigger NSW punters to be out in force early next week. RUGBY UNION Australia kicked off a big weekend of International Rugby with a big win over Italy. The Italians managed to put a respectable amount of points on the board but the Wallabies did the right thing by their supporters (Centrebet clients) and posted a comfortable victory of 48 points covering the well supported handicap by over 15 points. In a surprisingly even betting affair the Lions managed to disappoint everyone that had an interest in this game. As we stated last week we received some very good money for the home nation. This was offset by some moderate investments in the Lions emanating out of the Northern Hemisphere. The inept performance from the British and Irish Lions was not well received in the Centrebet office. The best result for the bookmakers over the weekend was the South African’s big win over France. The opening quote of 3.20 and +8 ½ at 1.90 for the visitors didn't’ last very long as it was supported heavily to start at 2.85 and +6 ½ .One bet of $20,000 at 1.85 +8 ½, another of $11,000 at 1.90 +7½ and $6,500 at 3.20 enabled us to put a little back in the bag following the afternoon’s poor results. Tana Umaga will lead the All Blacks into the second Test against the O’Driscoll-less Lions. Given a dry track with clear weather predicted our price assessors have posted the home team 15 ½ point favourites with the head to head prices 1.13 and 6.00 respectively. Australia should find a little more resistance when facing up to the tri-colours in Brisbane on Saturday evening. An interesting betting affair sees the opening quote for Australia as favourites at 1.23 and giving up 11 ½ point-start at $1.90. Although Australia has been well supported we have yet to write a bet from our European clients. We anticipate the balance to shift as we approach kick off on Saturday night. CRICKET It was a case of 'once bitten, twice shy' when Australia played Bangladesh in their One Day International match last Saturday night. That game was exactly seven days after Bangladesh scored one of sports greatest upsets and while we did make mention last week of those who took the 1.01 for the Aussies on that occasion, it is worth noting that not one of them came back to bet in the rematch. The prices were the same with Australia at 1.01 and Bangladesh at 21.00. We took bets of $100, $30 and $10 for Australia to win and incredibly got more than that out of Bangladesh, nearly $200. After a tidy start, Bangladesh lost their last 8 wickets for less than 30 runs, eventually going down by 10 wickets and the result most would have thought would occur the previous week. Now we have the final we thought we would have England v Australia and aside from losing their first two matches, not much has changed for the Australians. They are still the warm favourites at 1.52 with England at 2.50. England seem good odds but all the decent bets we have taken (including two of $10,000) have been for Australia. Betting will be conducted right throughout the game along with next man out and method of dismissal options. Australia have firmed up even further to win the Ashes now in to 1.45 which is something like what they were when they landed in England. After Australia were beaten in those one day matches, England were backed from 4.50 into 3.60, including a bet of $10,000 at 4.50 and $8000 at 4.25. Since Australia defeated England in the first one day match we have taken close to $40,000 for them to win the Ashes at 1.48 and 1.47. It’s quite strange when you consider it's a different format and a different team. CYCLING Will he or won’t he? That is the question on everybody's lips as Lance Armstrong lines up as a 1.90 favourite to win an unprecedented seventh Tour de France after having won the last six in a row. Armstrong won easily last year and he has strongly hinted that this will be his last so we are seeing a lot of sentimental money for him. In years gone by, his price has been similar to what it is this year but during that time, most of the bets for Armstrong came from bigger punters. This time around, it has been much smaller money from a wider audience. Armstrong finished fourth in the Daupine-Libere and that was a terrific performance given he said he wasn't completely wound up for that race. We expect to see continued support all week for Armstrong as the start draws closer and seeing as we have done a small fortune on him in each of those six wins, we will be standing him again. While Armstrong has a big stable of supporters so do the next two in the market, German Jan Ullrich (4.00) and Italian Ivan Basso (7.50). Ullrich would be like most bookmakers hoping Armstrong will retire but we have taken some good bets from Germany for their man. Basso has attracted a lot of small bets to win, as well as two bets of €2000 for a top three finish at 2.30. Robbie McEwen is the 2.25 favourite to win the sprinter’s green jersey and while we have seen nearly $4000 for the Aussie at that quote, there is a good spread of money amongst several other riders. Belgium's Tom Boonen is second pick at 4.00 ahead of Norway's Thor Hushovd (5.50), who has already been backed to win close to 200,000 NOK ($AUD 40,000). Another strong Australian chance, Baden Cooke (9.00) has been backed to win half that amount. All betting will be updated daily and all stages will be covered as well as stage head to heads. GOLF Irishman Padraig Harrington won his second PGA tour event of the year after sinking a 65 foot putt for eagle on the 72nd hole to capture the Barclays Classic. Harrington defeated Jim Furyk by a shot with a further four shots back to evergreens Brad Faxon, Brian Gay and Kenny Perry. This is the third event this year where Furyk has finished runner-up including a play-off loss to Vijay Singh at the Wachovia Championship. Well supported Vijay Singh 5.50 and Sergio Garcia, 8.00 threatened to play a hand in the finish however neither could get the flat stick to fire, while Bo Van pelt, backed to win over $50,000 at 41.00 failed to make the cut. Our attention turns to the Western Open in a lead up to the British Open in two weeks time. Defending champion is Stephen Ames is a 41.00 chance to retain his title but he will meet stoic resistance in the form of Tiger Wood 4.25, Vijay Singh 7.50 and Jim Furyk10.00. All these players have been well supported along with Mark Hensby, Jerry Kelly and Shigeki Maruyama who have been backed to win in excess of $50,000 by a local client. On the European tour, countrymen Jean-Francois Remesy and Jean Van de Velde sent the crowd into a frenzy with a superlative display of golf in what was the equivalent head to head match play. The game ebbed and flowed with both players having the opportunity to seal the title before finally going into a play-off. In another tragic twist for Van de Velde, similar to the final hole at Carnoustie some six years ago when he all but had his hands on the Claret Jug, an errant approach on the first play-off hole found water to effectively hand his National title to defending champion Remesy. FORMULA ONE Those scouring the Centrebet website looking for the betting on this week’s French Formula One Grand Prix may be disappointed to see that the race is missing. It will remain that way until the all clear is given in regard to any penalties that may be handed out as a result of the now infamous US Grand Prix. With talk of a breakaway competition and walkouts if excessive penalties are handed down, it just doesn't make sense to price it up especially in light of the fact that we were caught with our pants down two weeks ago. There is little doubt that the rules covering top three and top eight finishes were inadequate and these have since been tidied up with a 'minimum' number of starters in a race for each category before the bets stand. Bookmakers around the world lost millions as a result of the farce in Indianapolis and it will be very interesting to see if there is a big drop off in interest should the French Grand Prix go ahead with the field in tact. We suspect the answer will be yes. V8 SUPERCARS The V8 Supercars will be in action in the Northern Territory this weekend as they make their way home after being in China two weeks ago. Hidden Valley, Darwin, will be the venue and while it may be deep into winter in other parts of Australia, heat and humidity is always a problem in the 'Top End'. Todd Kelly is favourite at 3.50 to win each of the three races and has shown a distinct liking for Hidden Valley. Last year he finished with two seconds and a win and will be backing up from a round one win in China. Mark Skaife and Marcus Ambrose (each 4.25) are reliable performers with Skaife did taking pole position for the first race last year while Ambrose finished top three in two of the races. Craig Lowndes (8.00) has found a new lease of life with 888 racing and with three poles and a second in qualifying from the last four races it does appear as though he will be in the mix. Steve Richards is also an 8.00 chance and looks a realistic chance. This is normally a leader’s track so qualifying will be all important so as to gain a good position on the starting grid. WIFE CARRYING CHAMPIONSHIP One of the more bizarre events we cover each year is the World Wife Carrying Championship and it is due to be run in Finland this weekend. As yet we don't have a starting lineup but it will be more important this year than ever before. As we all know, Estonia's Margo Uusorg made this race famous by introducing the 'Estonian carry' but didn't start last year due to a hamstring injury. He had won three of the previous four races and many thought his world record would never be broken. Last year in his absence it was up to Uusorg's cousin Maddis to carry on the family tradition and he did so, winning easily. This year we are not sure at this stage which Uusorg family member will be turning up but they are certain to be upstaged by former NBA 'bad boy' Denis Rodman. Rodman has been invited to take part and while he hasn't been the most reliable individual over the years, the organizers still think he is coming. If Rodman does start, he will very nearly be favourite. His giant frame and athleticism will be a big advantage, particularly on the steeple and water courses. As soon as we have a confirmed field betting will be up on this time honoured event. BIG BROTHER It was another female who was evicted from the Big Brother household on Sunday but not the one most punters expected. Vesna was a big go to be evicted and after opening at 5.00 she eventually started at 1.50. The biggest bets were $1500 at 2.75 as well as a bet of $1500 at 1.65. Although Geneva was our opening favourite at 2.75 her eviction was a handy result as apart from the money for Vesna both Hotdogs and Dean had their odds halved after meeting with solid support. We have no idea who was only 0.3% behind Geneva but the females continue to be shown the door. This week, we have a monstrous field of five going around in the eviction battle. Kate (34.00) has probably done her chances no harm by unselfishly saving Christie and considering she has been one of the favourites to win overall for several weeks, it would be a big surprise if she was voted off. Vesna (3.20) is a strong possibility to go but there has been a lot of sympathy shown towards her after she was 'bullied'. Glen (1.53) is the big shock, top of the polls to go and getting bagged everywhere. It has all turned to mud for Glenn who was the 2.00 favourite five weeks ago and had the most bets placed on him in the first 24 hours of betting. Dean (4.00) is still in the house and it is hard to work out why but maybe he just might get through to the final pair? Tim has shortened again to take out the major prize. The 2.25 on offer may seem short but Tim, along with 'Logan' (the twins) at 3.50 head the betting and that won’t change while they continue to evade eviction nominations. The public and the housemates have really warmed to Tim and his diplomacy may be enough to see him walk away with the money. Until next week, good punting For
further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or
centrebet@centrebet.com
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