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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
WORLD CUP Punters continue to hold a slight edge over bookmakers as the World Cup group stage nears completion. The Australia v Brazil match has been the biggest of the tournament so far for us. It was staggering to see the amount of bets we took for Australia from Aussie punters, including one who invested a total of $25,000 at 9.00 and 8.50. While they were busy backing Australia, the rest of the world were just as keen to jump on Brazil, including bets of $55,000 (1.25), $30,000 at 1.25 and the same bet at 1.24 and several $25,000 bets at around the same quote. While there has been plenty of five figure bets on each match, there has also been some very big multis taken by Centrebet on the World Cup. Last weekend, an Australian client placed $225,000 at 1.78 for Italy and Portugal to win their matches. Portugal did the job, beating Iran 2-0 but the USA became one of our pin-up sides when they held Italy to a 1-1 draw. Looking ahead, another big betting battle looms tomorrow when Croatia play Australia. A win or a draw is what is required by the Australians and again punters are getting right behind them. They opened at 3.10 but are now into 2.75 and with the weight of support coming, may even start shorter. That has allowed us to push out Croatia to 2.45, which our European clients are finding attractive, with bets of 10,000 Euro and $USD 8000 already arriving. Brazil has won their only two matches but has eased in Cup betting from 3.25 to 4.00. Argentina and Spain have been the big movers; Argentina into 4.50 from 9.00, while the Spanish have had their odds halved now an 8.00 pop after being 16.00 before the first match. RUGBY LEAGUE Tipsters and favourite backers found some form over the weekend when no less than six of the seven favourites won in the NRL and the one that didn't, the New Zealand Warriors, were very well backed anyway. The Dragons have had their premiership odds trimmed again (4.75) after a come from behind win over Brisbane. While the Dragons started slight favourites, there had been some big bets placed (including one of $20,000) on Brisbane with 3½ points start. Danny Buderus didn't play for Newcastle on Sunday, and that was probably the difference between a win and a loss for the Knights. As soon as Buderus was ruled out on Thursday, there was money all over the country for the Warriors who firmed from 2.20 into 1.95 at one stage. On game day, money cam the other way (including one $30,000 wager for Newcastle at 1.90), so in the end we were looking for a Warriors win. The Kiwi side can be hard to catch but this was one occasion where they did us a large favour. With Matt Utai out and a serious doubt hanging over the availability of Sonny Bill Williams, we thought the Bulldogs would be hard to sell this week, but there are plenty out there who think that they can beat Melbourne Storm. After opening at 2.60, the Bulldogs have been backed into 2.45 with plenty of money also coming for them with the handicap start. On Saturday night, premiership favourites St George Illawarra will go in as the shortest priced favourite of the round when they host the Cowboys at WIN Stadium. The Cowboys are a rabble at the moment and go to Wollongong having lost four in a row on the road. The Dragons have found some consistent winning form and punters aren't afraid to back them when winning. We have already taken some big multi bets through the Dragons to win this week, so it looks like all are in agreement on this one - it will be a Dragons victory. A good home record and the loss of Karmichael Hunt for Brisbane will see Manly go in as favourites on Sunday. Punters have avoided Brisbane like the plague in this match and while the Broncos do have a habit of lifting when players are missing, it is hard to see them beating Manly. AUSTRALIAN RULES Only three of the six AFL favourites managed to win at the weekend, but the betting for the round was knocked around a bit thanks to the World Cup. It seems as though Australian punters have really embraced the round ball game and as a result, turnover was well down for the round. Adelaide confirmed their premiership favouritism when belting St Kilda. There was late money for the Saints (2.30 into 2.10) when Brett Burton was ruled out but the Crows seem to have the capacity to cover the loss of any player. A nationwide plunge was landed when the Bulldogs defeated the Brisbane Lions on Saturday night. Every man and his dog knew that Jonathon Brown and Mal Michael would be out and bet accordingly. As much as 2.25 was given for the Bulldogs, who started favourites at 1.80. The mid season run by the Lions has come to an abrupt halt, while the Bulldogs have now lost Mitch Hahn for the season. Sooner or later the injury toll must catch up with them but the Dogs look as though they will rack up enough points to make the finals, a terrific effort. An interesting battle between the Kangaroos and Carlton will take place at Telstra Dome on Friday night and the result of this game will also have a significant bearing on who wins the wooden spoon. Carlton will be without Anthony Koutoufides and that was enough for us to put the Blues up as slight outsiders at 1.95. Since the betting has opened it has been all one way traffic for the Kangaroos, now into 1.73 after opening at 1.85. That is a pretty good move and one a quick look at their form against Carlton at the Dome would show why - five wins from six starts. Carlton was brave in defeat against the Eagles but we think that the Kangaroos will be far too good this time. Saturday night will see the Swans host Collingwood at Telstra Stadium in Sydney. Both sides are well up in premiership betting, but both were beaten at their last start. The Swans played in atrocious conditions when beaten by St Kilda and would have been keen to get the week off judging by how poor the Saints were last week. Collingwood on the other hand were thrashed by Melbourne and we can only put that down to the Pies having an 'off' day. Punters think this well be a Sydney win though as they have already been backed from 1.65 into 1.60. While Collingwood are clearly a much better side than they were last year, one thing they haven't been able to do in the last 12 months is win on an interstate trip. They suffered four defeats last year and their only trek interstate this year resulted in a loss to the Eagles. It should be a terrific game and we give the nod to the Swans but in a close one. RUGBY UNION Once again, there were no surprises in last week’s Internationals with all four favourites saluting. The All Blacks were all the rage at 1.06 both in singles and multis but there was good support for the Ireland receiving 18½ points start. Our first wager was $10,000 on Ireland from a UK client followed by another $5,000 from one of our New Zealand punters. This made us sit up and take notice and we immediately moved the line to 17½. Betting remained static thereafter until the final hour before kick-off which saw an avalanche of money for the home side. This enabled us to the level the book off a little which saw us have a reasonable result. The main game saw The Wallabies heavily backed against what turned out to be a hapless England. Punters were keen to take the 1.08 on offer and many coupled them into the $1.06 on offer for the All Blacks. The 16½ points start also appeared attractive with several $5,000 wagers laid into the lead up to the and culminating in a $10,000 wager just on kick-off. This weekend’s round of Internationals appear more interesting affairs and may provide the result which has been lacking in the first two weeks of battle. The Wallabies have been installed 1.22 and 11 ½ point favourites against Ireland and given the visitors efforts in the last two weeks against the All Blacks that start may just prove attractive and a result might be on offer. Auckland to Perth is a long way for the Irish to travel but with Brian O’Driscoll experiencing some fine form the trip just might be worth it. The final two games have South Africa 1.45 favourites and giving 6½ points to the French in Cape Town. This will be a torrid affair with the forwards having a big say. I’m sure the French will be out to avenge the defeat they suffered at their last meeting so once again a result would not surprise. Finally the All Blacks take on Argentina in Buenos Aires and although they have been installed 1.28 and 10½ point favourites we expect to see good money for the home side that always prove difficult to shift when at home. Perhaps this week will provide the results the bookies have been waiting for over the last month. TENNIS Lleyton Hewitt has found form at the right time winning his first tournament in 18 months on Sunday. The irony of Lleyton's win at Queens was that we had one of our best ever results on him as Aussie punters seemingly by-passed the tennis in preference of the Socceroos match. Hewitt went into the final as a drifting 1.93 underdog against James Blake with less than $1000 placed on him. Aside from those two players, we haven't taken more than $200 for any other player, apart from Rafael Nadal (26.00) but he once again failed to handle a grass surface last week. The women's title is a lot more open and we have found a good spread of money across several players. Maria Sharapova is our 3.75 favourite and while she has been struggling of late, is definitely a better player on grass. Belgium duo Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin-Hardenne share the second line of betting at 6.00 and have attracted solid support, as has Venus Williams, who has been backed to win close to $60,000, which has seen her price cut from 11.00 to 8.00. Nicole Vaidisova is a player that punters have latched on to recently and she has been backed to win a similar amount. The first round of matches will open Sunday and there will be exotic bet types added to most matches daily. GOLF It has been over ten years since an Aussie has won a major championship, the last being Steve Elkington at the PGA in 1995. However, Geoff Ogilvy’s dramatic victory in this year’s US Open has finally got the monkey off our backs. Many will say that Ogilvy was a surprise winner, that he was lucky some of the world’s best players threw their opportunity away and that he had all the breaks. Well, it must be said, ‘cometh the hour, cometh the man’ and Ogilvy certainly did that. Betting on the event also had its moments with Tiger Woods well supported at 5.50 including one wager of $5,000 each way. Mickelson was next in the betting at 7.50 and surprisingly the Masters champion was hard to lay. Vijay Singh completed the top three at 13.00, Retief Goosen at 15.00, Jim Furyk at 19.00 and Australian Adam Scott at 21.00 rounded out the top of the betting. All these players were well supported but so too was Ogilvy at 61.00, including a wager of $500 each. The tour has a harsh return to reality this week with the Booz Allen Classic at TPC at Potomac. The defending champion is Sergio Garcia but he has forgotten to turn up as has all the world’s top 10 players and the top 12 money winners on the PGA tour. Brett Wetterich is the leading money winner at 13 and the only player in the top 30 competing. This makes the event a little light on for class and depth and for this reason, punters have steered clear of the event. Best backed has been Wetterich at 41.00 along with Frederik Jacobson at 29.00 but as an open event don’t be surprised to see a surprise winner. Irishman, Padraig Harrington heads the betting at 9.00, a deserved price given his top five finish in the US Open. Robert Allenby and Kenny Perry are next at 21.00 from Ben Crane and Nick O’Hern both at 26.00. These are all class players but between them have yet to register a win. Perhaps this week is the week. MOTOR BIKES Valentino Rossi won an action packed Catalonian Grand Prix on Sunday after the race had to be restarted due to a big crash. Rossi was long odds (1.33) to win anyway after qualifying quickest but his task was made much easier in the restart when Marco Melandri, Loris Capirossi and Sete Gibernau were all carted off to hospital. With Rossi being so short, there wasn't a lot of interest in it anyway but we had to get one rider beaten and that was Daniel Pedrosa. Pedrosa was a solid second elect and carried some good bets to finish on the podium but he once again parted company with his bike, this time on lap 10. Another who we had taken good place best for was Aussie Casey Stoner, who looked likely to at least finish a place when he jumped straight to the front. Unfortunately for Stoner, he also crashed but continues to impress and a win is not far away. Riders back up quickly with the Dutch MotoGP on this weekend but due to the doubts on injured riders from last week, betting will not open until a decision is made on who will be in the field. Either way, one thing for certain is that Rossi will be very, very short and looks the winner again. BIG BROTHER The Big Brother household may have been shocked that Katie was voted off on Sunday night but we certainly weren't. The punting public let us know early in the work that Katie was gone and she was 1.50 when betting closed on Thursday. There was a sprinkling of support for Jamie at 3.75 but it was obvious that another favourite (and another female) was facing the axe. David has gone from topping the nominations last week to being a short priced favourite again. In the past two weeks, David has been backed to win over $25,000 and is back into 3.00. John is second elect at 5.00 and with Jamie being nominated again; he has blown from 6.00 to 13.00. IT TAKES TWO Unfortunately for Channel 7, It Takes Two has been completely overshadowed by the World Cup but we do continue to see some pretty good bets coming through on the overall winner. There was a mini shock on Sunday when Judy Nunn (7.00) was voted off the show. Katie Fischer had been heavily backed into 1.33 to go but for a change, the punters got it wrong. There is a logjam at the head of betting now with Mark Furze, Erica Heynatz and Simon Reeve all at 3.75. Reeve has been the best backed of that trio in the past seven days and we also continue to see money for Kate Ritchie at 5.50. Fischer is still the outsider at 67.00 and will again be favourite to go this week. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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