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Aussie
Rules
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Centrebet Capers
WORLD CUP The fairytale is over for the Socceroos but the Aussies certainly lost no friends by taking Italy right down to the wire. It was a tragic way to leave the World Cup, but that happens. Obviously we were all hoping the Socceroos would go through to the next round but even a draw would have been a terrific result in this game. Australia were backed for a fortune, from 6.50 into 5.25 with some of the biggest bets being $10,000 (5.75) and five separate $5000 at various odds. It has been a tough tournament for bookies. Of the 56 matches played to date, there have only been four outsiders win and 13 draws with two of those were well in commission. That means 39 favourties have won, so there is little in the battle with punters. England line up against Portugal on Saturday night and our Asian clients have been all over them. The opening 2.20 went quickly and they are now into 2.00, with the biggest bet being $30,000 at 2.10. Germany has overtaken Argentina as favourites after another big bet from Asia. One regular placed $35,000 on Germany in the draw no bet option at 1.82 and there have been three $10,000 bets for them to win. Argentina has support at 2.75 but there has been solid money for the draw at 3.00, including one $10,000 bet from an Australian client. The final match will see Brazil go in as heavily backed favourites against France. We opened Brazil at what we thought was well under the odds (1.75) but it has been all one way traffic. They are now into 1.70 with a draw easing out to 3.40 and France at 5.00. TOUR DE FRANCE The good news about this year’s Tour de France is that we can't lose any more money on Lance Armstrong! This year’s race is embroiled in another dugs controversy before it has even begun with all sorts of allegations being thrown around. That has seen a downturn in business but those who have had a bet leading up to the start on Saturday have been keen to back only the two favourites, Ivan Basso (2.10) and Jan Ullrich (2.75). Ullrich opened at 3.75 but several of our cycling experts have backed him, including bets of €1000 at 3.75, €2000 at 3.50, and a bigger bet of $USD 3000 at 3.00. Ullrich won the event back in 1997 and was in amongst the placings for most of Armstrong's wins. There has been solid support from Aussie punters for Cadel Evans at 26.00. Evans has already been backed to take out close to $30,000. Evans is best suited to the climbing stages and did finish 8th last year at his first start in the grueling race. Betting will be available on all stages, as well as many exotic bets on a daily basis. AUSTRALIAN RULES With only two matches on for the weekend, it was always pretty obvious that the two favourites would firm up in betting. That is exactly what happened with punters getting it right on Friday night but it was only on loan for 24 hours as Collingwood upset the Swans on Saturday night. We accepted a big wager on the Kangaroos game which got home for one big punter. The bet was $75,000 for the Kangaroos to win by 11 points or more at 1.91. Carlton led by two goals at the last change so we thought we were a good hope of getting the cash, but the Kangaroos went on a goal scoring spree to win by 19 points. The Magpies needed to restore some credibility after losses to other premiership hopes in Adelaide, the West Coast and more recently Melbourne, and they did just that by beating the Swans by 13 points. We took one bet of $25,000 for Collingwood to get within 13 points of the Swans and there was also some money for them to win outright when they touched 2.55. Round 13 of AFL looks like the most predictable of the season so far but with some of the results being tossed our way during the season, who knows what will happen? Some good money has gone on the Kangaroos to beat Essendon at the Dome on Friday night. They have won their last three encounters there against Essendon and in fact were the outsiders in all three matches. This time, form says they should be favourites and they should get the cash. Many may be surprised that Brisbane are the shortest priced favourite of the round (1.20), but with Jonathon Brown likely to be back, the Lions deserve to be that short. They hit a little purple patch a month ago, and then were valiant in defeat against the Crows, while Carlton maintains a poor interstate record. Admittedly they should have beaten the West Coast but in the last two seasons, they haven't won interstate. Can Sydney bounce back this week? The Swans also seem pretty short at 1.30 but back to the SCG, the Swans get an opportunity to rack up a much needed win. Punters have no confidence at all in Fremantle when they play away from home and the Swans are another side who will probably firm in the betting if the weather does look like being clear. RUGBY LEAGUE It was a mixed bag of results on round 16 of the NRL. Four favourites won, with four 'home' sides winning and if anyone found all seven winners, then they have done extremely well as that worked out to be a little over a $53.00 chance. Melbourne looked headed for a loss against the Bulldogs and that was going to be a poor start to the weekend for punters but the final few minutes just went to prove that it isn't really over until the fat lady sings! While Melbourne scored two late tries to win 16-12, the four point margin wasn't enough for those who took the -5½ for the Storm. The 34-14 score line in favour of the Dragons over the Cowboys wasn't really a true reflection of how close the game was. We took a multi bet of $80,000 which won a punter $220,000, and one of the legs was the Dragons to win by nine points or more. For 75 minutes of the match, we looked pretty safe and the Cowboys looked a hope of winning but the Dragons got their act together to easily cover that handicap. This week it is back to dealing with a round of NRL where Origin players will be missing and as is always the case, betting has been on the quiet side early in the week. Newcastle was unlucky to be beaten by Cronulla last week and will travel to Brookvale on Friday night with several players out and Andrew Johns not quite 100%. Johns appears to be suffering from a shoulder injury and for those reasons, Manly have been made clear 1.60 favourites. Punters have been eager to take that so it will be no surprise to see the Eagles get back into winning form. The final match will see an interesting battle between the Tigers and the Bulldogs. We have seen less than $100 for a Tigers (2.55) win in the first 24 hours of betting. When these two met in March of this year, the Tigers were also missing Marshall and the final score was 47-12 in favour of the Bulldogs. Looks like another favourite to get up in this one. FORMULA ONE The only one who thought Fernando Alonso couldn't win the Canadian Grand Prix was Alonso himself. The Spaniard spent the better part of the week telling anyone who would listen that that the Ferrari's would be better equipped for the quick Canadian circuit but Alonso again qualified quickest and went on o win his fourth consecutive race. He was 2.10 before qualifying, which wasn't attractive to punters but once he came up with pole position, he attracted some big bets. Bets of $10,000 (1.50) and $8000 (1.45) were taken as Alonso's price crashed to 1.40 and there was no interest in any other driver. A Swedish regular plonked $35,000 on Alonso to finish on the podium at 1.25 and just for good measure also had a bet of $10,000 at 2.00 that Nick Heidfeld would finish in the top eight, which he did when he went over the line in seventh place. We don't exactly have fond memories of last year’s Formula One Grand Prix held in the USA. That was the infamous event where only half a dozen cars eventually raced, costing bookmakers around the world millions of dollars. Hopefully those sorts of things are behind us and Fernando Alonso will go into Friday's qualifying as a very warm 1.70 favourite. Punters haven't taken those odds as yet but there has been money for Michael Schumacher (4.00) who did win that race last year, albeit against a depleted field. MOTOR BIKES A broken wrist to Valentino Rossi during practice threw betting into disarray on the Dutch Grand Prix. Rossi eventually started from the back of the grid and finished in eighth place but blew in the betting from 1.35 before Thursday's practice to 13.00 and unwanted on race day. That saw a major reshuffle at the head of betting which resulted in Nicky Hayden being the 3.25 favourite ahead of Daniel Pedrosa (4.00), Colin Edwards (6.00) and John Hopkins at 7.00 after he drew pole. Two of our more astute MotoGP clients placed a total of €2000 on Hayden at that quote so we cut his price to 2.75. Then there was a wave of money (including one bet of $1500) for Pedrosa, before Edwards was backed to win a total of $20,000. It appears as though Valentino Rossi intends to race this week in the British MotoGP even with his broken wrist. He struggled last week so we are going to tread very cautiously on this event until after the two days of qualifying. We expect punters to do the same thing as there has been no interest in Rossi at 2.10 and with the big question mark hanging over his head; we have taken a few small bets for Nicky Hayden (4.00) and Colin Edwards at 9.00. BIG BROTHER Evictee number 11 from the Big Brother household was Rob, and that kept the perfect record of favourites up to be booted from the house. Rob was a 1.50 when betting opened but was in to 1.30 when betting closed. This was the most popular eviction to date, as close to $12,000 was wagered on it and it wasn't all for Rob. We took three separate $1000 bets for Jamie to be ousted at around the 3.20 mark. It was obvious from the lack of support for Camilla (9.00 out to 34.00) that she was safe. It is amazing that Camilla is detested in the house, yet the fans want her to stay. This week, it looks like Gaelan's good run will come to an end. He has been flying under the radar since day one but found himself with a heap of nominations this week. He opened at 1.50 to be evicted and straight away we took a series of bets at that price, which forced him into 1.40. Krystal has met with some support at 3.50 but both Camilla and David look safe. IT TAKES TWO Katie Fischer was the latest casualty in It Takes Two and that wasn't really a surprise as Katie was backed at 1.50 to be voted off. Mark Furze (2.75) and Erika Heynatz (3.00) have cleared out from the pack to be the overall winner after each put up another impressive performance on Sunday night. They are the only two that punters have shown an interest in this week with Simon Reeve blowing right out to 6.50. Kate Ritchie has overtaken Simon and is now third pick at 5.00. Aussie cricketer Michael Bevan is our 1.61 favourite to leave the show this week. Bevan opened at 1.70 and although we haven't taken a lot of money, every bet to date has been for him, so he looks to be in trouble. GOLF Ben Curtis had not won an event since the 2003 British Open at Royal St George in his rookie season. Waiting an extra two days to finish the rain delayed Booz Allen Classic was not going to faze the young native from Ohio. Curtis’ lack of decent form meant he was still big odds at 151.00 coming into the tournament which had Aussies Nick O’Hern and Robert Allenby heading the betting at 21.00 from Kenny Perry at 23.00. It must be stated that the event was not well patronised by the punting public however the same could not be said of the top five book. Best backed were Nick O’Hern at 7.00, Steve Stricker at 10.00 and, yes, believe it or not Ben Curtis at 41.00. The PGA tour once again struggles to put together a quality field at this week’s Buick Championship. Stewart Cink heads the betting at 19.00 with consistent South African Trevor Immelman who has had two runner-up finishes this year. Next in the betting are Nick O’Hern, Kenny Perry and Zach Johnson at 21.00 followed by Scott Verplank at 26.00. Best backed has been Perry along with Billy Andrade at 67.00 and Woody Austin at 81.00, all to win in excess of $30,000. Of the others Ben Curtis and Bart Bryant have their admirers at 41.00 as does Fredrik Jacobson at 51.00. The European tour warms up this week in the lead up to the British Open with the Open de France Alstom in Paris. David Howell heads the betting at 9.00 from Padraig Harrington at 12.00 Jose Maria Olazabal at 17.00, Thomas Bjorn at 19.00 and Ian Poulter and Henrik Stenson at 21.00.The betting has been evenly spread across the board indicating the depth of the field and a surprise result would be anything but. RUGBY UNION Last week we predicted some possible upsets from the fixture of Internationals and in some respects that’s exactly what we got. Firstly the Wallabies hosted Ireland in a much anticipated match in Perth. The Wallabies were well supported, 1.25 into 1.22, while the handicap of 10½ was also well tried into 1.85. The visitors were well in the match 10 minutes into the second half leading 15-11 however; they ran out of legs after two torrid tests against the All Blacks in the previous weeks. The All Blacks were also well tried against Argentina in Buenos Aires. The win price firmed from 1.30 into 1.25 while the handicap also firmed a point from 9½ into 10½, while multis with The Wallabies were all the rage, including one $50,000 wager at 1.60 combining the win prices. Luckily they were well supported conceding the 9½ with betting kicking off with a $10,000 wager from a New Zealand client and finishing with a $5,000 wager from one of our Great Britain clients conceding 10½. The home side was dour in the final 10 minutes holding out for a 25-19 loss. Perhaps the legs had their affect on the All Blacks in this game as it did for the Irish against the Wallabies. The final game unveiled the real upset as South Africa failed to hold out an impressive French outfit 36-26. Betting on this game reflected the closeness between the two teams with good money for both sides. Bookies that made the most from the South African result would have finished on top while others would have drawn the battle with the punters. The results from the weekend gave us some insight into the forthcoming Tri Nations series. We opened betting to win the tri nations with New Zealand favourites at 1.65, Australia at 2.90 and South Africa at 6.50. Early money has been for the favoured two while we have not struck a blow for the Springboks at this stage. Until next week, good punting For further information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 02 9206 8715 or centrebet@centrebet.com
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