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FROM
CENTREBET Centrebet
Capers
Posted 2:15 PM, March 1, 2002
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CRICKET
The Australian cricket team nearly broke as many
records as they took wickets in a fantastic win over South Africa
in the first Test. This was another one of those occasions when
the avalanche of money from the sub-continent was for the draw,
and while we took plenty of money for an Aussie win, we were
desperate for a win by either side.
It was obvious early that the prediction of rain was way off
beam, and when Australia piled on 331 runs the first day, it was
all but over as a betting event. Very few bets were taken after
the match started, apart from a bet of $25,000 on Australia at
$1.25, but we did see a significant rise in all the exotic bet
type options we had on offer, so there were obviously plenty of
people watching the match as the Aussies racked up 652 runs for
the loss of 7 wickets. Glen McGrath and Shane Warne cut a swathe
through the Proteas, twice, to inflict an embarrassing defeat on
them. The big losers, apart from the South Africans, were the
Indians who charged in and backed the draw, with one losing a
total of $60,000.
Not to be deterred though, the same punter has come back for
the draw in the second Test, even though it doesn’t start for
another week. We opened the draw at $2.70, immediately taking a
bet of $20,000, but we have seen bets of $4500 and $4000 come for
Australia at $2.10. Shaun Pollock will be back for South Africa,
and while they require a huge turn around in form, the South
African’s are nowhere near as bad as the first Test would
indicate, and we have kept them “safe” at $4.50.
Matthew Hayden is the $4.50 to top the most Series runs ahead
of Adam Gilchrist ($6), while Glen McGrath is $2.50 to top the
wicket totals.
The 202 run total New South Wales set Queensland in the ING Cup
final didn’t really look enough but the Bulls collapsed to be
all out for 185, handing NSW an unlikely win. NSW are always the
side that suffer the most when the National side ate on duty, so
it was probably only fitting that they secured the Cup. Although
the form of the Bulls has been patchy recently, they were pretty
easy to lay at $1.45, including bets of $5000 and $4000.
Queensland remain $1.70 favourites to take the Pura Cup final, and
they are $1.45 to take the points against NSW in a match beginning
today (Thurs). We haven’t seen a lot of interest in this match,
but a Sydney client has placed $7000 on Western Australia to take
the points at $1.80 against Victoria. In the other match, South
Australia are $1.57 against Tasmania, and the money has been split
between the two. An outright victory for South Australia will
nearly secure them a place in the final, and put paid to
Tasmania’s chances.
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AUSTRALIAN RULES
Seven of the eight Wizard Cup favourites won
last week, but we managed to come out only slightly behind. The
best betting match of the round was the Carlton v Geelong clash,
and it was probably the “game of the round” from a
spectator’s point of view as well. A punter from Geelong
invested $12,000 on the Cats at $2, but again the Cats squandered
winning opportunities to go down by 12 points.
The same client then lined up with a $5000 wager on the
Bulldogs at $3 to beat Essendon, and once again Essendon
disappointed in a pre-season match, going down 116-88. Like
everybody else though, we aren’t falling into the trap of
writing off the Bombers, and still have them at $3.60 to win the
premiership.
With the possibility of some of this weeks round being “dead
rubbers”, betting will only be available on the matches that
have a bearing on the finals. An “all Adelaide” final is
looking a distinct possibility, with Port now $2.75 to win the
Wizard Cup ahead of Adelaide and Hawthorn at $5.
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RUGBY UNION
With four of the “away” sides winning in the
opening round of Super 12, the signs are there that we might have
an even competition in 2002. The Blues got things rolling with an
impressive 60-7 win over the Hurricanes. This was a strange
betting match as our Kiwi clients placed close to $30,000 on the
Blues to win at $1.45, and also conceding 6½ points start, but on
the day of the match the money was all for the Hurricanes, led by
a bet of $16,000, from England, on the Hurricanes with the start.
It was exactly the same in the Chiefs v Waratahs clash. The
Kiwis were the first in to take the $1.90 for the Waratahs, but on
Saturday, our Australian and South African clients took the $1.90
the Chiefs. Barring for some poor ball handling, the Chiefs should
have got a lot closer than the 42-25 loss they suffered, but we
need to see a bit more of both sides before writing them off.
Those that took the short odds for the Sharks to beat the
Stormers are probably still trying to work out how they lost after
leading 18-8 at the half. The Sharks were $1.25, and we did take
two bets of $25,000 and $20,000 that kicked off with the Sharks as
the first leg of a double with the Brumbies, who of course won.
The Stormers had four of their run-on squad out through injury, so
it was an ordinary loss by the Sharks. Favourite punters also had
a worrying final 15 minutes in the Crusaders scrambled home 30-18.
The Highlanders failed to win away from home last year, but looked
likely to break the drought when storming to a 4 point lead late
in the second half. The steady boot of Andrew Mehrtens was the
difference as he steered two penalty kicks through to get the
$1.40 favourites home. While one Aussie punter would have been
breathing a sigh of relief after placing $15,000 on the Crusaders
to win outright, we did get to hang on to two $5000 bets from New
Zealand on the Crusaders conceding 8½ points start.
This week, the Crusaders face a danger game against the Chiefs
in Hamilton. The first match of the round is always one of the
best betting games, and on this occasion it has been all one way
traffic for the Crusaders. The $1.28 has been taken by “all
up” punters, and we have also taken bets of $8000, $6500 and
$5000 for the Crusaders giving up 9½ points start.
On Saturday, the Highlanders are conceding a similar start at
home to the Sharks. The scenario is the same, with just over
$12,000 in early bets all coming for the Highlanders, but the
Sharks, a finalist last year, look respectable odds.
The Brumbies, $1.11 or -16½ points, look good things to give
the Cats a “touch up” at Bruce Stadium on Saturday night. The
Cats scored an unimpressive win against the lowly Bulls in the
first round, and two years ago were beaten 54-0 at the same venue.
The Queensland Reds will need a forward showing against the
Blues if they are to be considered a real threat this season. A
second defeat after two rounds might even by enough to end finals
aspirations for this season, so it is no surprise to see good
support for the Reds at $1.90 from Australian punters. The Blues
thumped them in a trial three weeks ago, which has led to New
Zealand punters backing the Blues including bets of $8800 and
$5000 at $1.90.
The Waratahs are also $1.90 equal favourites to beat the
Stormers in Cape Town. From twelve previous matches in South
Africa, the Waratahs have won three matches and drawn once, but
have always come away from Cape Town with at least a bonus point,
so the form says they can definitely win. Some of our South
African punters have taken the $1.90 the Stormers, as has one of
our English clients with a bet of 2000 Euro.
There will also be three games of Six Nations rugby on Saturday
night with the highlight being in Paris where France play England.
Both are undefeated, with England being the more impressive of the
two following their victories, but will go in without Captain
Martin Johnson. That is enough to rate the French some hope at
$3.40, but all the early money has been for England. Included in
those bets has been two wagers from the mother country, both of
2000 pounds, for England conceding 9½ points start. The other two
matches look one sided, but the interest has been in both
favourites conceding the handicap start. Wales are $1.10 or -20½
against Italy, while Ireland are $1.16, or -15½ against Scotland.
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BASKETBALL
You have to hand it to the Sydney Kings, they
can produce something special to lose when its leas expected. The
Kings we belittled by Townsville 118-110 on Friday night, after
being behind by 24 points at half time. That was bad, but it got
worse on Saturday night when the Kings, who are in danger of
missing the finals, went down to Brisbane who were without Captain
Simon Kerle. We lost on the Townsville game, but on Saturday we
couldn’t keep punters off Sydney against Brisbane. Most of the
money came from NSW, including bets of $5500 and $4000, for the
Kings conceding 4½ points start. Sydney might still make the
playoffs, but on their current form they wouldn’t win an egg and
spoon race let alone the NBL title.
Title favourites Victoria ($1.75) hammered Wollongong 116-87 in
a match punters thought Wollongong would win. We found them easy
to lay getting 2½ points start, but again they disappointed.
Tonight (Thurs), Sydney travel to Melbourne to take on the
Tigers, and again go in as favourites. We have taken a $10,000 bet
for the Kings to win at $1.60, and we have already taken bets of
$4400 and $2000 for the Kings conceding 12½ points start to
Canberra on Saturday. West Sydney might be without Derek Rucker
when they travel to Brisbane, but punters still think the
Razorbacks will win judging by nearly $9000 in bets coming for
West Sydney at $1.57.
This weekend, the WNBL finals series’ begin, and top of the
table Adelaide host Canberra Saturday evening. Adelaide beat
Canberra by 15 points last week, but with the chance Rachael Sporn
will be out, and Lauren Jackson will be a big factor for Canberra.
In what maybe a surprise to some, we have posted Canberra 1 point
favourites, and we have seen money only for Adelaide.
In the elimination match, all eyes will be on Dandenong to see
if Penny Taylor can get 40 plus points in her fourth consecutive
game. We haven’t seen any action in this match yet, where
Dandenong are 3 point favourites over Sydney.
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GOLF
Outsider Kevin Sutherland ($101) defeated Scott
McCarron in the Match Play Championship last weekend. Continuing
on with the theme of the tournament, Sutherland was the underdog
at $2.15 in the final pairing in an event where favourites were
doomed from the start.
The Tucson Open also went to a “bolter” when Ian Leggatt
($81) scored his debut win on the tour. Loren Roberts, our worst
result, eventually finished second, two shots in arrears of
Leggatt.
This week, Tiger Woods is the $5 favourite to win the Genuity
Championship in Florida. We have been saying for a couple of
months that punters are getting sick of backing Tiger, and the $5
for the Genuity hasn’t really inspired them either. We have
taken a $1500 each way bet for Sergio Garcia at $11, while Nick
Price ($51), Jesper Parnevik ($67) and Dudley Hart ($126) have all
been backed to win $25,000. For Greg Norman fans, the “Shark”
has won the Genuity three times, so he must be some chance at $41.
Irishman Padraig Harrington is the $13 favourite to win the
Malaysian Open, but only Michael Campbell ($26), Richard Green
($41) and Anders Hansen ($81) have had backing.
Tamworth will be the venue for the New South Wales Masters,
where “hometown boy” Anthony Painter is currently $17 equal
favourite with Gavin Coles and Andre Stolz. We have laid several
players in this event with Painter, Stolz, Paul Devenport ($41)
and Marcus Cain ($51) all backed to take out $20,000.
Karrie Webb is the $1.80 favourite to win the Australian
Women’s Open at Yarra Yarra golf club. Webb had an epic four
hole playoff with Anika Sorenstam last week before the Swede ended
Karrie’s winning sequence of Ladies Masters’ wins, but with
Sorenstam electing to play in Hawaii, Webb gets a chance to repeat
her win of 2000.
One Victorian punter has placed $6000 on Karrie at $1.80, but
last years winner, Sophie Gustafson and big Laura Davies have also
been popular. Another Victorian has put $2000 each way Davies at
$9, while a host of each way bets on Gustafson at $13 will see her
go in as our worst result.
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HARNESS RACING
This year's Inter Dominion has been the quietest
ever leading into the opening round, probably due to the eveness
of the Grand Circuit. “Pocket Dynamo” Courage Under Fire, has
been the big firmer over the past week, now sharing $5.50
favourtism with Smooth Satin after $9 was available last week.
Courage Under Fire has been backed to win $40,000 in that time,
with Safe and Sound ($8) and Jofess ($13) each backed to take out
$20,000. The seeded draw will see all the favourites coming from
the second row on Friday night, and with points at a premium, many
of these will have to work hard, which might be a telling factor
come final night. Series head to heads are also available, as is
the Trotters Championship, where champion mare La Coocaracha is
the $1.55 favourite to win the title. The 25 metre handicap
appears the only think stopping “The Cockroach” from winning
the final.
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ACADEMY AWARDS
Betting has been open for a week, and while
there have been a couple of early moves, there have been a
terrific spread of money amongst all categories. Four bets
totaling $12,000, all from Australia, have been placed on Russell
Crowe ($1.40) to win the Best Actor award, but it does appear that
some have been taking notice of Mel Gibson’s tip, Denzel
Washington. Two bets of $1000, have been placed on Washington at
$4, while Will Smith’s portrayal of Muhammad Ali must also have
been impressive as he has come into $6.50 after opening at $9.
Plenty of small money has gone on Nicole Kidman ($4.50) to win
the Best Actress award, but the bigger money, including a $2500
bet, has been for Sissy Spacek at $1.45. Even though Judy Dench
won a similar award in Britain for her role in “iris”, we
haven’t been able to find any takers at $8.
The Best Picture award looks a race in two, and we have laid
both “A Beautiful Mind” at $1.50 and “Lord of the Rings”
at $3. Bets of $5000 and $4000 have been enough to shorten
Jennifer Connelly from $1.33 into $1.25 to be the Best Supporting
Actress, while the Best Director award looks a match between Ron
Howard and Peter Jackson, $2.10 and $2.50 respectively.
As yet, there has been no sign of a couple of punters who have
an uncanny knack of backing Academy Award winners, but stay tuned!
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SOCCER
Everton and Charlton both did Centrebet huge
favours last week when holding Liverpool and Leeds to draws. With
Arsenal and Man United both winning, it was imperative that
Everton hold Liverpool to a draw as we have taken some massive
trebles, including one of 20,000 Euro from a German client. Leeds
($1.40) were up against Charlton on Sunday night, and they were
also the “banker” in most all-ups. Leeds have been woeful
recently, and are all but out of the title race, but the other
Sunday winner, Newcastle, continue to defy the critics and are now
into $7.50. Man United remain favourites at $1.50, ahead of
Arsenal at $3.75, but Arsenal face the acid test this week when
they travel to Newcastle. Arsenal ($2.70) are always popular with
our Scandinavian punters, but they have deserted them this week,
preferring either the draw or Newcastle at $2.35.
The early money has been for Chelsea ($2.10) to beat Charlton
and Ipswich ($1.90) to defeat Southampton. Two clients from
Singapore have each placed $10,000 on Ipswich to win, while four
bets totalling $28,000, all from Europe, have gone on the
disappointing Chelsea. Naturally we have seen plenty for Man
United, who play away to Derby, including a $16,000 wager at
$1.50.
In Spain, a monstrous plunge came unstuck when Mallorca, were
beaten by Seville. After opening at $2.15, Mallorca started at
$1.85, with some of the bigger bets being $12,000 at $2.10,
$10,000 at $2 and $15,000 at $1.95. Punters have been spot on with
recent plunges in Spain, so it was nice to get on back.
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FORMULA ONE
For obvious reasons, the Australian Grand Prix
is always the biggest Formula One on our calendar, and it looks
like we have a real betting contest for the season’s opener.
Defending champion Michael Schumacher, and his team Ferrari,
have shocked most by going into this race with last years car, and
claiming they would be happy to “grab three or four points”.
That enough for us to risk Schumacher, and punters have been very
accommodating at the $2.50, including two bets from Germany of
2000 Euro, and a bet of $4000 from a Queensland client. Juan Pablo
Montoya ($4.50) and his Williams team-mate Ralf Schumacher ($5.50)
have been easy to sell, whereas punters have ignored David
Coulthard at $6.50. Our Finnish clients have jumped into Kimi
Raikkonen ($11) who replaces Mika Hakkinen as Coulthard's
team-mate at McLaren.
All the “exotic” bet types have met with good support. Some
of the more significant bets have been $6000 on Ralf Schumacher to
get a podium finish at $2.25, $3000 on Montoya to drive the
quickest lap at $3.50, $5000 for Ralf Schumacher ($1.85) to beat
home David Coulthard, and $5000 for Aussie Mark Webber ($1.72) to
beat home Alex Yoong.
Webber also features strongly in betting to complete the race
or not. Plenty of Aussie punters have taken the $1.95 for Webber,
in his Minardi, to finish, but the rest of the world is betting
that he won’t at $1.75. An Italian client has invested $7500 on
Montoya not finishing at $2.25 and also $7000 on Yoong failing to
finish at $1.65, while a value punter from England has placed
$2000 on Rubens Barrichello failing at $3.50 and $4000 on
Giancarlo Fisichella also failing to finish at $2.50.
All betting will be updated after Friday and Saturday’s
qualifying sessions. Until next week, good punting For further
information contact Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on
centrebet@centrebet.com
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