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FROM
CENTREBET Centrebet
Capers
Posted 6:15 PM, March 7, 2002
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CRICKET
It will be interesting to see if the shattered
South African cricket side can bounce back against Australia in
the second Test beginning in Cape Town on Friday. Our Australian
punters think they can, and have backed the Aussies from $2 into
$1.57 headed by bets of $15,000 at $2, and $12,500 at $1.90. We've
had the draw "safe" at $2.60, expecting another
onslaught from our Indian clients who unloaded on the "no
result" option in the first Test. So far the only significant
bet on a draw is $20,000 at $2.70, taken last week, that is now
blown out to $3 with the news that Sean Pollock will again be out.
While the draw is well in the betting, we maintain that there
would need to be a huge deluge of rain for these two sides to
finish without a victor, and while Australia look the goods, some
punters have also discounted the chances of a draw and have taken
the $7 for South Africa, including bets of $4000 and $2000, both
coming from Sydney.
All of our exotic type bets are again expected to be popular,
and two that have caught the eye are whether or not opener Matthew
Hayden will equal Don Bradman's record of six consecutive Test
centuries.
Hayden currently has scored four consecutive hundreds in Tests,
and punters have backed the big Queenslander to win in excess of
$30,000 at $11 to get centuries in either innings of the next two
Tests. Hayden has had his share of luck to get this far, so from
our point of view, hopefully the South Africans won't drop their
catches.
“Warne’s Bunny” has really been the talking point though.
We all know that Warne has had the “wood” on Cullinan for
years, and punters can bet on whether Warne will get him again in
either innings, both or not at all. “Not at all” is the
favourite at $1.85 which might surprise most, but some of the
stats are a little misleading. Warne has “got” Cullinan 12
times, but 8 of those have been in One Day matches’ and from 7
Tests, Warne has nabbed Cullinan only four times from 13 innings.
The $5 for the first innings has been backed to win $8000, the
second innings ($3.25) has been left alone, while a handful of
punters have taken the $6 for Warne to grab Cullinan’s wicket in
both innings.
Shane Warne is currently the $3 second pick behind Glenn
McGrath ($1.80) to finish with the most series wickets, while a
$4000 bet for Adam Gilchrist at $2.75 has seen him edge past
Hayden as our worst result in the run totals.
It was an incredible round of Pura Cup matches, with the
results all but handing a home final to QLD, but the race for
second has really opened up. The punter who placed $7000 on
Western Australia ($1.80) to beat Victoria was down for the count
before the unreliable Vic's crashed in the second innings. We
weren't counting on losing that bet, and it looked likely to
happen again the next day when New South Wales got within six runs
of an outright victory against Queensland. Two bets totalling
$14,000 were placed on NSW ($2.25) on the first day, and in an
exciting finish late on Monday night the Bulls just scrambled
home. The Bulls are now into $1.35 to win the Cup with one round
to go before the final. They need two points from their clash with
Victoria to host the final but mathematically they can miss out if
Tasmania and West Australia post outright wins and they fail to
get any points off Victoria, an unlikely scenario.
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AUSTRALIAN RULES
Followers of Wizard Cup betting fluctuations
would have had a "fill up" last weekend when every
winner was backed for bundles. Thankfully we kept out of three of
the matches which had no bearing, and this decision was vindicated
when elsewhere, Fremantle started favourite and beat Essendon by
33 points!
Carlton's backline under some heavy scrutiny after the Blues
collapsed against Richmond on Friday. There was nothing in the
match until the Tigers put five goals on the board in the dying
minutes, much to the delight of those who had backed Richmond from
$1.55 into $1.40.
We did at least get a betting contest when Hawthorn played
Sydney on Sunday. The Swans firmed from $2.30 into $2, with bets
including $4000 ($2.30) and $6500 ($2.10) going on the Swans, but
we did find Hawthorn easy to lay, still winning on the match.
Port Adelaide are now $1.90 to win the Cup, and $1.33 to beat
Sydney in this week's semi. Richmond are $1.70 in the other semi,
and we have taken two separate $10,000 bets for the double. There
has also been solid support for Richmond to beat a 10 point
handicap, while in the other match, both sides have attracted
support at a line of 19 points.
The success of both Port and Sydney so far has seen big money
come for both to win the day premiership. Port Adelaide are now
into $8 after being backed to win a total of $70,000 last week at
$11 and $10. Similarly, the Swans are all the rage with NSW
punters, but a Victorian also fancies them after backing them to
win $30,000 at $16. This week we have also taken bets of $8000 and
$3000 for Sydney to make the final 8 at $1.57 on top of a $4000
bet for the Kangaroos to also make the finals at $2.10.
Taking premiership doubles on the Aussie Rules and Rugby League
has also grown over the years, and late last week we took our
biggest premiership double so far this year when a Sydney client
placed $15,000 on Parramatta and Essendon winning this season at
$10. There has been little movement on the Brownlow Medal, but
Melbourne have been big shorteners in wooden spoon betting, now
into $9.
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RUGBY LEAGUE
With the 2002 season kickoff just a week away,
the serious money is starting to roll in. Melbourne Storm have
been nearly unlayable to win the title or make the final 8, and
one Sydney punter is tipping a gloomy year for the Storm after
placing $5000 on them at $15 to "win" the wooden spoon.
Several sides have been backed to run last, but one side we
haven't laid, and are happy to stick with, has been Canberra. The
Raiders will really struggle this year, and with the fine home
record of the Raiders being tarnished over the past two seasons,
anything in excess of $11 for Canberra to finish on the bottom
might just be good odds. There is, however, money to say that the
Raiders can go all the way this year with a bet of $500 coming in
last week at $81. The impressive trial form displayed by the
Bulldogs has seen the $11 evaporate, with just over $10,000 coming
in the past two weeks for a Bulldog victory.
The Roosters are the other side that have had their price
slashed, now into $9 after opening at $12. Ricky Stuart's boys
have been backed to take out close to $200,000, but the worry with
the Roosters is always going to be if Brad Fittler stays fit or
not. Ditto with Andrew Johns and the Newcastle Knights, and that
can be the only reason we haven't been "swamped" for the
reigning premiers at $7.
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RUGBY UNION
After watching last weekend's round of Super 12,
it's not hard to work out why we only got a few hundred dollars
off South African clients for any of their four sides to win the
title. They are just no good! We rated the Sharks a show of
staying within nine points of the Highlanders, taking over $30,000
in bets from New Zealanders for the Highlanders to cover the
spread. The score at half time gave us a glimmer of hope when the
home side led 12-5, but the Highlanders piled 33 unanswered points
on in the second half.
Some of those losses came back via an impressive 64-16 win by
the Brumbies over the Cats in Canberra. Determined to get
something out of the South African side, we shifted the line from
19 out to 20 points, and immediately "got a bite" from
England, with bets of $11,000 and $10,000 coming from there for
the Cats. Strangely, after the woeful performances by the Sharks
and the Cats, we continued to see money for the lowly Bulls to
beat the Hurricanes. Again an English client had the largest
losing bet, that being 4000 pounds ($AUD 15,000) at $1.80 before
they went down 37-18.
Saturday night's clash between the Reds and the Blues looked to
be the betting game of the round, and that was how it turned out.
We took bets from all over the world on this match, and ironically
the biggest losing bet on the Blues, $20,000 at $1.95, came from a
Brisbane punter. Blues supporters would have been on good terms
with themselves when they raced to a 14-0 lead early in the match,
but in a match where the referee dominated, the Reds stormed home
to win 34-23.
The news doesn't look like getting any better for at least
three of the South African sides this week when they go into their
matches as despised outsiders.
The Cats travel to Dunedin, and will be receiving a massive 25
points start to the Highlanders. There have been a few takers, but
two New Zealanders have invested $13,000 between them on the home
side beating the handicap ($1.90) while another has gone the safe
way, placing $10,000 to win outright at $1.04.
The Sharks have won before in Canberra, so that explains two
bets of $2000 on them receiving 21 points start against the
Brumbies, but we find when they play at home, the late money is
always for the Brumbies. The only minus for them this week is that
Andrew Walker will be out, so that will make some difference.
There has been a solid push for the Blues to get within 3½
points of the Crusaders in Christchurch on Saturday, again mostly
from Kiwi punters. We have also found that most punters from the
"Shaky Isles" also think that the Reds will beat the
Chiefs by more than 14½ points. The Waratahs are $1.33 to
maintain their undefeated status again the Bulls, but punters have
been treating this game cautiously.
The Waratahs and the Reds are into $8 to win the title, with
the Brumbies into $2.65.
Two heavily backed favourites covered their handicap marks in
Six Nations last weekend, but we recouped those losses when France
regained some rugby respect by beating England 20-15. Wales' 44-20
victory over Italy was very costly when three $10,000 bets saw the
"line" move from -19 out to -21 points. Italy threatened
to score several times in the last five minutes, but it wasn't to
be. Ireland didn't carry as much money as Wales, but their 43-22
win over Scotland was still an ordinary result as they eclipsed a
13 point handicap.
The suggestion last week that England would suffer with the
loss of captain Martin Johnson came to fruition when France beat
them. While we saw some support for France at $3.40, punters, both
big and small, couldn't see past an England win. Several $5000
bets were taken on England conceding 9½ points start, and an
Australian client also invested $20,000 on a treble of Wales,
Ireland and England. That loss has seen England "blow"
out to $2.65 to win the Six Nations, with France into $1.45.
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BASKETBALL
Canberra did the right thing for us when they
beat Adelaide 66-62 to earn the right to host the WNBL Final the
weekend after this. We thought Lauren Jackson would rise to the
occasion, and rise she did as Canberra were always in a winning
position. The betting on women's basketball is nowhere near as big
as the men's version, but we did accept two bets of $2500 for
Adelaide to win at $2.
This week's preliminary final will see Adelaide go in as narrow
favourites at $1.75 to beat Sydney, but we are tipping that
Adelaide will be making an exit from the finals race here. The
$1.75 looks attractive given they finished on top of the ladder,
and have had the edge on Sydney with their last two wins. In those
wins, Rachael Sporn shot 23 and 20 points, but she is injured, so
Adelaide, and punters will be able to watch this game live on the
ABC.
Punters got off to a flying start last weekend when the first
four favourites all won, and all covered the start, but we staged
a big comeback when the last four games went our way.
Sydney Kings punters could finally rejoice when they defeated
Melbourne, and then came out and beat Canberra 106-93, just barely
enough for those who took the -12½ points. Against Melbourne, a
Sydney client had two bets $10,000 at $1.60 and $12,000 at $1.58,
and followed that up with a $7000 bet on the Kings at -12½
against Canberra. Canberra were also soundly beaten by Victoria
the previous night, and it was a surprise to hear the Fox Sports
commentators say that the Cannons haven't won away from home for
two years!
Adelaide and Wollongong were looked upon as
"specials" by most punters, with one Victorian coupling
up the two "shorties" in a double with a wager of
$10,000. He bombed out with both, Adelaide ($1.28) going down by
18 points to Melbourne, and the disappointing Wollongong, a raging
$1.10 favourite, beaten 113-110 by Cairns.
We've just said Canberra haven't won on the road for two years,
but this is the week! The Cannons travel to Cairns buoyed by a 25
point victory at home against Cairns a few weeks ago, so the $2.40
is good value. The few that have had a bet on this game have gone
for Cairns, including a devout NBL fan from Victoria, who has put
$10,000 on the Taipans to win outright at $1.58.
The league's biggest improvers, Perth, travel to Wollongong,
and while we have been giving Wollongong "one last
chance" for several weekends, this really is it! We haven't
taken a significant single big wager for Perth at $2, but just
over $13,000 did go on the Wildcats in a series of bets when
betting opened.
The local derby between West Sydney and the Kings has been a
good betting duel. One single bet of $10,000 has gone on West
Sydney at $1.90, but against that the usual Kings' fans are out
and about taking the $1.90 for a Kings win even though they will
be backing up after playing a desperate Brisbane, still clinging
to an outside shot at the play-offs.
Victoria are into $1.50 to win the title, and on form
thoroughly deserve the short quote.
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GOLF
Two weeks ago, Annika Sorenstam and Karrie Webb
tied in the Australian Masters, with Sorenstam winning a fourhole
play-off. In a strange twist, Sorenstam, playing in Hawaii, and
Webb, playing in Melbourne, both tied in their respective
tournaments last weekend, before each went on to win in a playoff,
now that would have been big odds!
Karrie Webb's win was a small loser, and although she was
always on the leaderboard, we did at least get a sight from
Norwegian Suzann Petterson.
Ernie Els burst back into form in the Genuity Classic, but the
last round was dominated by Tiger Woods, who shot 66 before
eventually losing by two shots to Els who closed with a 72.
Punters ignored Els in pre-tournament betting, and then he was
eight shots in front, so we were lucky to "miss" him.
Tiger's return to form has seen bets of $2000 and $1500 go on
Tiger to win the upcoming US Masters at $4, with Ernie Els now the
second choice at $13.
This week, Retief Goosen is the $11 favourite to win the Honda
Classic, but it has been second pick Phil Mickelson ($12) who has
been backed to win $25,000 by a Canadian punter. Davis Love and
last year's winner Jesper Parnevik, both rated $34 chances, have
each been backed to win $15,000 by a Queensland punter, and Peter
Lonard ($67) has also attracted each way support after his great
third in the Genuity.
Els has entered for the rich Dubai Desert Classic, and we have
listed him favourite at $6. The only interest shown early has been
for Darren Clarke ($21) and Thomas Bjorn ($17), and with Bjorn
being the defending champion, we expect the Dane to be awfully
hard to beat.
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HARNESS RACING
The cream is rising to the top in the
Interdominion, and following Tuesday's second round at Newcastle,
Courage Under Fire and Shakamaker are now the $3.50 equal
favourites. Shakamaker's stablemate, Safe N' Sound, was
sensationally backed with us to beat Courage Under Fire in
Tuesday's heat, but after finding the lead easily, he was no match
for Courage Under Fire. After opening at $5, Safe N' Sound was
backed into $2.50, with the two biggest bets being $2000 at $3.50
and $3000 at $3. Miracle Mile winner Smooth Satin was also a solid
go in the last heat, attracting bets of $4000 at $2 and $3000 at
$1.90, and after enjoying a perfect run, proved far too good.
The one runner that has been backed to rip a fortune off
bookies is starting to look a real threat. As much as $101 was
given for Kiwi Stars and Stripes, and after two unbelievable heat
wins, Stars and Stripes is now a $5 chance, and looks very, very
hard to beat.
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ENTERTAINMENT
Reality TV shows are part of our lives now, and
visitors to our web site will see that Centrebet is currently
betting on the Norwegian big brother. For those that are
interested, you can visit a web site, www.bigbrother.no, and
assess the form for yourselves as the web site has "live
cam". We are betting on who will be the eventual winner, head
to heads, and who will be next evicted from the house. Of the 12
left, seven of those have been backed to be voted out next. Most
bets have been for Veronica ($7), Line ($8.75) and Guner ($21). To
prove how hard it is to predict what will happen on these shows,
Veronica ($10) has also been the best backed to be the overall
winner.
There has been plenty of movement on the Academy Awards.
"Bad boy" Russell Crowe is all of a sudden out of favour
following his antics in England last week. We already had seen
money for Crowe to be Best Actor at $1.40, but now he is out to
$1.65 with money arriving for Denzel Washington and Will Smith.
Washington is now $2.25 after opening at $4, and in the past week
Smith has attracted bets of $2500, from Italy, at $6, and $1200
from a Melbourne man at $5.
We are beginning to see some big bets roll in, taking two
decent ones from Canada this week. $8000 has been placed on Sissy
Spacek (Best Actress) at $1.35, and $11,000 has also gone on
Jennifer Connelly to win the Best Actress award at $1.25.
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MOTOR RACING
If Michael Schumacher went into the Melbourne
Grand Prix with a slow car, you have got to wonder how he will be
beaten after again completely out-driving what opposition he had
left after an early pile-up.
We saw this as a good opportunity to “lay” Schumacher, and
when he drew two on the grid, he was easy to sell at $2. The
biggest bet came from Singapore, and that was $16,000. A lot of
the exotic options we had on offer also turned ugly as a result of
that crash as most punters preferred to back drivers to fail to
finish.
Mark Weber’s popularity was staggering. We had to slash his
win price from $501 into $201, and the option on whether he would
finish or not saw just under $50,000 wagered. There were hundreds
of jubilant Aussies who took the $1.95 for Weber to finish, but
punters from outside Australia bet against him. Although finishing
two laps behind Schumacher, scenes from the Minardi camp were
similar to those of the winner’ Ferrari. Weber is an $11 chance
to finish in the points in Malaysia, while Schumacher is $2 to win
again.
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SOCCER
The race to see who wins the English Premier
league is hotting up following Arsenal’s 2-0 win over Newcastle
last weekend. That was a crucial away win, which has seen
Arsenal’s price cut to $2.50, while Man United have eased to
$1.90 following a 2-2 draw with Derby. Breathing down their necks
are Liverpool ($5.50), while Newcastle have drifted to $11.
It wasn’t a good weekend for punters when only four
favourites managed to win. One of those, Liverpool, did land a
$25,000 winning bet (from Germany) at $2.20 when they defeated
Fulham 2-0, but draws in the Man United and the Bolton v Blackburn
game were our big results. Both Bolton ($2.25) and Blackburn
($2.85) had backing, while Man United, aside from carrying a
fortune in “all up” bets, also had a wager of $37,500 placed
on them at $1.50 by a Swedish client.
This weekend, the final eight teams in the FA Cup play off, and
there is not an odds on favourite in sight! That should ensure
money for the draws, and we have already taken bets of 5000 Euro
on that option in the Newcastle v Arsenal game at $3.30 and the
Tottenham v Chelsea match at the same odds.
In Italy, the past few weeks has seen a trend of heavy support
for the draw option in most games, and with only two draws last
weekend, we came out well ahead. A new client from Malaysia
plonked $20,000 on the draws in the AC Milan v Inter game (Inter
won 1-0) at $3, $10,000 on the draw between Perugia and Torino (Perugia
won 2-0) at $3, and the same bet on the draw at $3.10 in the
Udinese v Atalanta match, which Atalanta won 2-1.
This week, early action has been relatively quiet, but we have
taken $8000 (from Italy) for a draw between Bologna and AC Milan
at $3, $7000 for the draw between Lazio and Roma at $3 (same
punter), while an Australian has wagered $5000 on Atalanta to beat
Lecce at $1.80.
The World Cup isn’t far away, and money is trickling in for
several countries. Last week we took a $3000 bet for Italy at $7,
and we continue to see support for Denmark ($71), who have now
been backed to take out close to 5 million DKK ($AUD1m) with us.
Judging by what we are seeing, betting to win the Cup itself is
going to reach astronomical proportions, so we can also expect
massive betting on all matches.
Until next week, good punting For further information contact
Gerard Daffy at Centrebet on 08 89555800 or on centrebet@centrebet.com
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